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Breeders’ Cup Feature
by e-ponies.com
Oct 30, 2004
Intelligence report: Since Lone Star Park is not one of the tracks I typically cover, I have been running the program on Lone Star for the past couple of weeks in order to generate some history. I can use those historical races for comparison purposes. In particular, I wanted to validate the track’s reputation as a speed-favoring track. Here are the results:
Top speed win % Top class win % Top form win% Top overall win%
Lone Star 25% 25% 16.7% 41.7%
All other tracks 21.2 % 20.9% 18.8% 30.6%
For this study, the other tracks had 340 races in the sample. Lone Star had 48 races in the sample. It looks as if my computer program did a nice job at Lone Star overall, picking the winner correctly in 41.7% of the races in the sample. Speed and class both had a stronger influence at Lone Star than at other tracks. Please keep in mind that Breeders’ Cup races are very different from other races. There is no guarantee these results will translate to the Breeders’ Cup races.
Another observation I have made concerns the morning line odds. I seriously question some of these odds. Some are set strangely high, and in some cases I believe the wrong horse has been tabbed as the probably post time favorite. The purpose of the morning line is supposed to be to predict the betting choices of the public, not for the person who sets the morning line odds to apply his judgment on who will win. I will point out these anomalies as I see them. In some cases, these anomalies can be very useful and potentially profitable. In most cases, the betting public will correct the problem as post time approaches. But in other cases, value plays show up on the tote board.
2nd Race Breeders' Cup Nextel Distaff Distance: 1 1/8 Miles Purse: 2,000,000 Surface: Dirt FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Pace Analysis: This year’s Distaff is stacked with early speed. I would typically call it stalking speed, but the overwhelming number of horses that all want to be 3rd or 4th in the early going should pressure the pace. With the decision to race AZERI in the Classic, the sole speed spot is available to TAMWHEEL, but she won’t get much daylight. I do expect that she will go for the lead, but ASHADO is one of many that will not let her get clear. NEBRASKA TORNADO may also see the lead as her only chance to win. ASHADO has never been further back than third in the early going, in her last ten races. Without AZERI in the mix, she does not have to worry about being caught up in a speed duel, so I expect her to stay close. She has the class to go the distance with these. The resulting pace should be fast enough to set up for a late run, but not torturous. Of those likely to close late, ISLAND FASHION and STELLAR JAYNE should be considered the most dangerous. ISLAND FASHION could come from just off the pace, and STELLAR JAYNE from farther back. STORM FLAG FLYING will not be part of the early pace, but if she will run her race, and will be in striking distance as they turn for home.
The Contenders: The Distaff is much more competitive this year than last. The field is large, and many in here have a legitimate shot. ASHADO is the class of the field, having finished in the money in ten straight graded events dating back to last October. She has been the favorite in her last five races, dating back to the KY Oaks, a race which she won impressively. She has been trading punches with STELLAR JAYNE in 2004. Which one comes out on top is usually decided by the pace. ASHADO has done better when conceding the lead early. Had AZERI stayed in this event, I would have expected her to rate more. But without AZERI going, she may go to the front much sooner. STORM FLAG FLYING is another classy contender. She one of just a couple that have actually finished ahead of AZERI. She has only finished off the board once in her lifetime, and there is nothing in her form to indicate she will today.
The next tier of contenders includes SOCIETY SELECTION, ELLOLUV, and STELLAR JAYNE. Of these, STELLAR JAYNE and SOCIETY SELECTION are both in great current form, and the race sets up well for them to close late. SOCIETY SELECTION is on a roll lately, having run ahead of the entire top tier in her last two starts. And she was closing ground on SIGHTSEEK in the Beldame. She has run on the lead, but does her best coming from farther back. She seems to do her best in large fields, besting twelve in The Test and eight in the Alabama. The large field in this one should suit her fine, as should the pace. If she can run back to her recent form, she is very dangerous. ASHADO is the horse to beat in this one. I am throwing out her dull effort in the Alabama. With the distance at just 9 furlongs, she should be able to outrun SOCIETY SELECTION to the wire. ASHADO should go off the favorite, although a tepid one. STORM FLAG FLYING and SOCIETY SELECTION will compete for second choice honors somewhere between 3:1 and 4:1.
Running Early: TAMWHEEL
Running Late: SOCIETY SELECTION, STELLAR JAYNE
Good bet to hit the board: ASHADO
Win Bet: ASHADO
Exacta Bet: Box 1,3,4
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 1,4 with 1,3,4,7 with 1,3,4,7
Pick Three Bet: 1,4 with 1,5,9 with 6,11,12
Head-2-Head Bet: ASHADO
Long Shot Bet: STELLAR JAYNE
3rd Race Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Purse: 1,000,000 Surface: Dirt FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD
Pace Analysis: I consider this to be a very unusual Juvenile Fillies in that there are not that many in here that have won in wire to wire fashion in any of their starts. Usually, there are at least four to six contenders that have just one or two wins, but in wire to wire fashion. Truly, the only flame thrower in this one is SIS CITY. She has just one shot to win this one, and that is on the lead, so that is where she will go again. She almost stole the Frizette, and will likely get clear again in this one. HIGHER WORLD, QUIET HONOR and SENSE OF STYLE all have shown some early speed and could be part of the pace scenario. It will not take much to get SIS CITY to fade, but someone is going to have to do the dirty work. I expect the pace to be honest, but not blistering. SIS CITY will try to get two lengths on the field, but if she can get just one length and conserve, she will do that. I look for someone to come from mid-pack to win in the last 70 yards. Those mid-pack closers include: BALLETTO, READY’S GAL, RUNAWAY MODEL. Running very late will be CULTURE CLASH.
The Contenders: In these sort of events, there is so little to differentiate on, and what there is to study looks very much the same as all the others in the field. And the horses are coming into form very unpredictably as two-year olds. Having said that, a couple in here have differentiated themselves in terms of size of field, and lifetime earnings. Those classy competitors include SWEET CATOMINE, BALLETTO and SENSE OF STYLE. Last year, I told you to take HALFBRIDLED, even at short odds, but this year I would not recommend jumping on the back of a heavy favorite. However, these three should be near co-favorites and the rest will be a very nice price. SWEET CATOMINE has been made the morning line favorite at 5:2, but I do not agree she should be marked ahead of SENSE OF STYLE. Her competition has not been as impressive as SENSE OF STYLE or BALLETTO. Her late running style is a plus, but none of the top three will be consumed by a hot pace.
Another nice differentiator is the trouble line. Looking for horses that have found trouble and still prevailed to hit the board is a worthwhile study. In that category, I would include CULTURE CLASH, CULINARY and SENSE OF STYLE. On the other hand, those that seem to always find trouble, should be left alone, such as RUNWAY MODEL. CULTURE CLASH is another that I do not agree with the morning line odds. I agree she is a long shot, but came from way back in her first race, and found trouble in her next. I’m not convinced she should be thrown out.
Overall, SENSE OF STYLE is a notch above the rest. My computer dinged her for her last effort where she found trouble and threw in the towel, but I am throwing that race out. Her running style puts her near the front relatively quickly, so she is not habitually in trouble. From this position she will be close enough to strike late. SWEET CATOMINE may go off the favorite, and that will allow SENSE OF STYLE to go off at about 7:2.
Running Early: SIS CITY
Running Late: BALLETTO, READY’S GAL, SWEET CATOMINE
Good bet to hit the board: SENSE OF STYLE
Win Bet: SENSE OF STYLE
Exacta Bet: Box 1,5,9
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 1,9 with 1,5,9,10 with 1,5,9,10
Pick Three Bet: 1,5,9 with 6,11,12 with 2,6
Head-2-Head Bet: CULINARY
Long Shot Bet: CULTURE CLASH
4th Race Breeders' Cup Netjets Mile Distance: 1 Mile Purse: 1,500,000 Surface: Turf FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Pace analysis: Finding the probable pace-setters took some effort in this one. There will be some speed, but it will be set by just a couple. The vast majority are closers, some of them deep closers. SOARING FREE and SPECIAL RING are the likely pacesetters. Both have wins in wire to wire fashion, going further, against full fields, so do not discount the early speed in this one, even though it is a turf race. These two will likely be clear of the rest, but not by more than two lengths. They should set honest fractions. Big contenders ARTIE SCHILLER and MR O’BRIEN are two such who will be stalking in the early going. In the early going, it could be a fairly spread out field, for a field this size. NOTHING TO LOSE will be further back, probably slower than mid-pack in the early going. The front two will still be clear as they reach the final turn, but will come back to the pack as they near the eighth pole.
The Contenders: I predicted SIX PERFECTIONS to win this event last year and she won at a decent price. She has done nothing much since except become a beaten favorite. My computer still likes her, and so do I for all the same reasons as last year. She has been running in some very big fields, with some of the best turf horses in Europe. Her recent form does not look that strong, so she should be a high price for a defending champ. NOTHING TO LOSE is the morning line favorite, though I think it is a bit flattering. He has had a decent year in 2004, and is well traveled, with wins in many different tracks at different distances. His last two races are probably his most formful, winning both with a steady drive. ARTIE SCHILLER is the horse to beat in this one. It is crazy to see his morning line odds at 12:1. That will not hold, but I’d be excited to see him as high as 5:1. He deserves much more respect than that, even if running against older horses. He has a great running style and always runs his race. MR O’BRIEN had a nice coming out party at Pimlico on Preakness day in the Dixie. However, he has been very inconsistent since, and could probably use some more distance to be most dangerous. Considering the pace and form, the race appears to set up well for ARTIE SCHILLER. Last year’s recommended win bet becomes this year’s long shot bet, SIX PERFECTIONS. You should get at least 8:1 on her. Another long shot worth considering is SINGLETARY. This horse always finds a way to hit the board. He tends to see more than his share of trouble, but hitting the board consistently with turf horses is a big plus. His 15:1 odds will likely hold up, and that makes him a decent value.
Running Early: SOARING FREE, SPECIAL RING
Running Late: SIX PERFECTIONS, NOTHING TO LOSE, HONOR IN WAR
Good bet to hit the board: ARTIE SCHILLER
Win Bet: ARTIE SCHILLER
Exacta Bet: Box 3,6,11,12
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 6,11 with 3,6,11,12 with 3,6,11,12
Pick Three Bet: 6,11,12 with 2,6 with 5,9,10
Head-2-Head Bet: SIX PERFECTIONS
Long Shot bet: SIX PERFECTIONS, SINGLETARY
5th Race Breeders' Cup Sprint Distance: 6 Furlongs Purse: 1,000,000 Surface: Dirt FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Pace Analysis: The most important race to actually study the fractions is the Sprint. In this Sprint, there appears to be no one interested in setting fractions of 21 flat, as was the case last year. SPEIGHTSTOWN will likely be the early leader, and his best first quarter is 21.5 seconds. Even CAJUN BEAT, last year’s surprise in this event, has yet to do better than 22 flat in the first quarter since his victory. GOLD STORM has some cheap speed, but even if he tears it up in 21 and small change, I don’t expect him to play in the final outcome. SPEIGHTSTOWN is a much disciplined horse that will run his race regardless. If he loses, it will not be the result of a speed duel. It will simply be the effect of someone stepping up (like last year with CAJUN BEAT). At the finish line, expect the clock to read 2 ticks either side of 1:08 flat. SPEIGHTSTOWN will turn in his usual 1:08.
The Contenders: This race does not appear to be very interesting on paper, and will likely be the worst betting race of the day. SPEIGHTSTOWN is an obvious choice to win, and most any other win wager would require some serious speculation. CAJUN BEAT has proven himself a one-trick pony. BWANA CHARLIE is one of just a couple of closers, but his best time is not good enough to win this one. CLOCK STOPPER also does not have a finish fast enough that running back to would be good enough. GOLD STORM will be consumed by the pace. MIDAS EYES is better at 7 furlongs. The only two that look worth a speculation wager are OUR NEW RECRUIT and ABBONDANZA. ABBONDANZA is the next very curious morning line odds situation. I can not imagine why he was disrespected so seriously. ABBONDANZA won his last race in 1:08.11, which may be good enough today if he can repeat. He has also run ahead of BWANA CHARLIE in their only meeting. Admittedly, he is stepping up in class today and it would take a great trip, but 50:1 makes no sense. He has a shot. OUR NEW RECRUIT earned some respect in the UAE, and then backed it up with a nice sprint performance prepping for this race. But despite the big paycheck in the UAE, he is outclassed by SPEIGHTSTOWN. In a nutshell, none of these has the sustained performance to look like they can put up a fight with SPEIGHTSTOWN in his typical effort. In fact, most do not look capable of putting up a fight if they run back to their best effort. With the exception of last year, recent year’s Sprints had been pretty formful. I expect a return to that today with SPEIGHTSTOWN winning.
Running Early: SPEIGHTSTOWN, GOLD STORM
Running Late: BWANA CHARLIE
Good bet to hit the board: SPEIGHTSTOWN
Win Bet: SPEIGHTSTOWN
Exacta Bet: Box 2,4,6
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 2,6 with 2,4,6 with 2,3,4,6,7,13
Pick Three Bet: 2,6 with 5,9,10 with 3,6,7
Head-2-Head Bet: CLOCK STOPPER
Long Shot Bet: ABBONDANZA
6th Race VO5 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf Distance: 1 3/8 Miles Purse: 1,000,000 Surface: Turf FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Pace Analysis: With so little obvious early speed in this one, it looks like a race that could be stolen. Any of the likely leaders will be so for the first time. And since this race is longer than what most of these typically run at, the leaders could back it down another notch and set even softer fractions. As a result, the pace will be quite deliberate. WONDER AGAIN and MOSCOW BURNING may inherit the lead just by running their usual race. RISKAVERSE may also find herself more forwardly placed than usual. Any one of these three could be candidates for a theft. The short stretch at Lone Star also makes a theft even more appealing to clever connections. If no one races to the lead, look for the winner to come from no further back than mid-pack in the early going, and no further back than fourth as they hit the turn. The morning line favorite, OUIJA BOARD likes to stay fairly close, and should be able to with the pace I expect to see. Her connections will likely not want her on the lead though.
The Contenders: This event is supposed to be one that will be dominated by the Europeans, and I can see why. The Western contenders are not as strong as in recent years. OUIJA BOARD fairly earns the second shortest morning line odds out of all these BC races. Her third place effort in the Arc, against males, was a monster performance that should easily be good enough today. I do not believe bettors will get 8:5 on OUIJA BOARD. American bettors will be looking for a US-based horse to back, and find none. So the money will be focused on the favorite. I expect something closer to even money by post time. LIGHT JIG is the second European contender. She has risen quickly through the ranks, jumping from allowance races just four races back. But she has held form as she moved up. Her last effort was an impressive win in Grade I company, beating nine others. I like seeing her with at least one race in the states, but all of her US starts were in California. MEGAHERTZ lost a puzzler as a heavy favorite in a four-horse race last time out. Prior to that, she had three wins in a row in graded races. Her effort in this race last year was an impressive one, closing with a rush to finish fifth at long odds. She is definitely an improved horse now. She also has nothing recent in her form outside of California. WONDER AGAIN is also coming off a race she had no excuse for losing. RISKAVERSE was the winner of that race, but that does not completely explain the sixth place finish. RISKAVERSE has two wins and two seconds in graded events since this same race last year, yet still does not get much respect anywhere she goes. She has earned over $700,000 in 2004, but has only been the favorite once in her last five starts. I am one who is ready to respect her. Her running style looks good here too. The problem with any horse coming back to this race from last year, in improved form, is that OUIJA BOARD was not in that one, and she is in the race today. She is the best of this bunch and last year’s field combined. RISKAVERSE will be my long shot bet again this year, as she was in this event last year.
Running Early: MOSCOW BURNING, WONDER AGAIN
Running Late: RISKAVERSE
Good bet to hit the board: OUIJA BOARD
Win Bet: OUIJA BOARD
Exacta Bet: Wheel 5.9 with 4,5,7,9,10,11
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 5,9 with 5,7,9,10 with 5,7,9,10
Pick Three Bet: 5,9,10 with 3,6,7
Head-2-Head Bet: MEGAHERTZ
Long Shot Bet: RISKAVERSE
7th Race Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Purse: 1,500,000 Surface: Dirt FOR COLTS AND GELDINGS, TWO YEARS OLD
Pace Analysis: Much like the Juvenile Fillies, none of these come in off just a couple of wire-to-wire wins. There are usually at least two such in this event. The other striking thing about this race is the small field. Both those two factors could depress the pace. SCANDINAVIA and CONSOLIDATOR could inherit the lead, but will not tear up aggressive fractions in setting the pace. PROUD ACCOLADE may also take to the lead if the fractions are too soft. His connections may want him to take the lead if it is offered, just to make matters worse for the favorite, ROMAN RULER. With the short stretch, horses will need to be in position by the top of the turn. As a result, expect a tight field and positioning battle with everyone trying to keep the lead horse in their sites.
The Contenders: ROMAN RULER comes in as a moderate favorite, but is very beatable. He is three for four lifetime, but has competed in some very small fields. He obviously could have beaten more in these events, but he has not had to worry much about traffic, or pressure on the lead at any point. This is the second biggest field he has faced, and the most competitive (although still the weakest Juvenile fields I have seen in a long time). The distance does not appear to be a concern, given his racing form and breeding. However, I expect him to be bet down to close to even money, and he does not deserve that. You have to keep him in your exotics, because he looks the best on paper, but he can be beaten. PROUD ACCOLADE looked great in his first two, and then went two turns. Went four wide to win by a half length over AFLEET ALEX. That was an impressive performance, and something similar today makes him the winner. I cannot find any reason to call that race a fluke, so a similar finish today should be no surprise. AFLEET ALEX has looked great in each of his five career starts, has a nice stalking style, and clearly wants the distance. The race boils down to these three. The rest are speculation bets at best. ROMAN RULER has everything going for him on paper, but I think the value proposition will be wrong at short odds. I will look elsewhere. TWICE UNBRIDLED gets 50:1 morning line, based primarily on the fact that he is still a maiden. But this field is so small, and very weak past my top three. He has found a lot of trouble in both his two starts, but still finished strong. He becomes my long shot bet. I think that is another example of a crazy morning line odds, especially for a eight-horse race.
Running Early: CONSOLIDATOR
Running Late: AFLEET ALEX
Good bet to hit the board: PROUD ACCOLADE
Win Bet: PROUD ACCOLADE
Exacta Bet: Box 3,6,7
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 3,6 with 3,4,6,7 with 3,4,6,7
Pick Three Bet: 3,6,7 with 3,4 wih 4,7,12
Head-2-Head Bet: CONSOLIDATOR
Long Shot Bet: TWICE UNBRIDLED
8th Race Breeders' Cup John Deere Turf Distance: 1 1/2 Miles Purse: 2,000,000 Surface: Turf FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Pace analysis: STAR OVER THE BAY is the sole speed in the race. He earns my computer’s top speed score by a large margin. The next closest, according to the computer, are MUSTANFAR and POWERSCOURT. However, both of these are obviously not the early speed types, so those speed scores must be based on final times or high speed figures. STAR OVER THE BAY’s only chance to win is to wire it, so expect him to race to the front and try to hold it. It would not be surprising if he tries to open several lengths on the field. If the track is less than firm, he gets even more dangerous. He comes off an impressive wire to wire win. STAR OVER THE BAY is definitely dangerous loose on the lead. As the oldest horse in the field (6yo), he is a bit of a late bloomer, earning $493K of his lifetime $638K in 2004. It is rare to see a horse come into form so late in life, but he has earned a spot here.
The Contenders: KITTEN’S JOY earns the shortest morning line odds of any favorite today, and he deserves it. He runs a patient, stalking style that is lethal in turf races. His margins of victory over some very talented fields have been very comfortable. This field is no tougher than some of those races. If he runs his race, he wins. POWERSCOURT and MAGISTRETTI both have higher class scores, but that is largely driven by the size of the fields they have faced. My computer rewards for big fields. Based on the computer score, there is a wide gap between the first three mentioned above, and the rest of the field. They certainly have races under their belt that proves they belong in this one, but their best efforts today would not be enough to beat KITTEN’S JOY in a fairly average effort. REQUEST FOR PAROLE will be running in his sixth straight Grade I event, but his performance in them has been spotty. I can not find a reason to think he is sitting on a big one. STRUT THE STAGE used to be a speedster, but has learned how to rate. He has as much of a shot as any of these to upset KITTEN’S JOY. He has been running in Canada very respectably. If the favorite does not fire, he could be a decent play at a nice price.
Running Early: STAR OVER THE BAY
Running Late: KITTEN’S JOY, MUSTANFAR
Good bet to hit the board: KITTEN’S JOY
Win Bet: KITTEN’S JOY
Exacta Bet: Wheel 3,4 with ALL
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 3,4 with 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,4,6
Pick Three Bet: 3,4 with 4,7,12 with 4,6
Head-2-Head Bet: KITTEN’S JOY
Long Shot Bet: STRUT THE STAGE
9th Race Breeders' Cup Classic Powered By Dodge Distance: 1 1/4 Miles Purse: 4,000,000 Surface: Dirt FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Pace Analysis: For the Classic, there is not a ton of speed in this one. FUNNY CIDE earns my top speed score, but he is more of a close stalker. He will not want to tear it up on the front end too early. ROSES IN MAY earns a strong speed score, and his past performances look more like a front runner. What happens with AZERI will be interesting. With the fillies, her style is to lead, but that style will make her vulnerable today. If her connections are interested in seeing her run impressively in a losing effort, they will turn her loose on the lead. If they really want to win, they would be wise to ask her to rate. But then they run the risk of a performance like the last time she faced colts. In that effort she never got to the lead and then faded under pressure. Regardless of how she plays it, the distance and the competition from the colts will be too much for her and she should not play in the pace scenario. GHOSTZAPPER has shown some speed in the recent past. Farter back, he has a last-to-first effort. I expect him to be close to the lead in this one. I do not expect his connections to want him to have to deal with a very wide trip or lots of horses to pass. The catbird seat looks like third to fifth in the early going. A deeper closer for the win is possible, although the pace scenario is less than perfect for it. Expect respectable fractions, but nothing crazy fast.
The Contenders: This race will live up to its name. It should be a classic. It has all the requirements – Horse of the Year considerations, stacked field, ambiguous pace scenario, to name just a few. Any one of about six horses can make a strong case for why they should win this one. Another couple can make a less strong case. I will go over them one at a time.
PLEASANTLY PERFECT – if you were hoping I would give you some reason to bet around the returning champion, I do not have any. He has owned this distance for two years now, and has run back to his BC effort already once this year. He appears to handle layoffs well, although that has traditionally been a knock for this particular race. In the Pacific Classic, the race line reads “gamely” but that does not do it justice. It looked like a hand ride to me. He will run his race today. Losing it will be a function of some other horse’s performance.
BIRDSTONE – I believed in him in the Belmont (although my heart was with Smarty Jones). I believed that his Derby performance was lackluster and he would rebound in the Belmont. Many still doubted him after that effort and sent him off at nearly 5:1 in the Travers. He was dominant in the Travers, taking over when ready. He is for real, and he also has handled layoffs well in his career. Bred for this distance, eats it up just like his daddy. Speed up front plays to his strengths, but even a moderate pace may be enough for him to close on them.
FUNNY CIDE – Lifetime earnings of $3million, and $1million in 2004 says that he is for real, and he has not really pulled back much in 2004. He is running close to his Derby form. The way he came back after being headed in the Gold Cup was the same sort of heart he showed in his Triple Crown efforts. His poor effort in this event last year is a toss-out. That was his clunker. Do not expect another today.
GHOSTZAPPER – Four straight wins and six out of his last seven is impressive. A couple of those wins were by large, widening margins. He has a nice stalking style that should keep him well placed throughout. The only knock on him is his lack of racing history, and the fact that he has faced some very small fields. It has been a long time since I threw out a horse this good, but I am doing it today. I believe he will be part of a tough pace and will give way in the end.
ROSES IN MAY – looks a lot like GHOSTZAPPER on paper, with a little extra boost because he has beaten a very classy PERFECT DRIFT twice already. He also boasts much more early speed. He will definitely be part of the pace. However, that is one of the most popular criticisms of him. Many do not believe that he can not go the extra distance today. He has shown some distance limitations in the past, and the early pace will be fast enough to make him burn some gas getting to the front.
AZERI – she is one heck of a horse, but has not fared well against colts in the past. And she picked a tough one to try again. This Classic field is a very powerful bunch of horses and I cannot see her holding on for a piece.
PERFECT DRIFT – This horse has been running well all year but keeps getting beat by horses having a slightly better day. It would not take much of a step up at all to put this horse on top. Running style is versatile.
THE REST – would take a stepping up of epic proportions to win.
Overall, this race boils down to whether or not there will be enough early speed to set it up for a late run. It looks like it could be stolen on the front end, most likely by ROSES IN MAY, but it would be a gutsy move to send this horse to the lead too early if his connections are already worried about his distance capability. Other than that one, no one else is likely to try a theft. If no theft is attempted, expect ROSES IN MAY, FUNNY CIDE and AZERI to all be part of the early pace, setting honest fractions. GHOSTZAPPER, PLEASANTLY PERFECT, and PERFECT DRIFT will settle in the next pack. Further back, BIRDSTONE will wait for his chance. If the pace is too soft, either ROSES IN MAY holds on or PLEASANTLY PERFECT takes over and wins. If the pace is strong enough, BIRDSTONE gets the best shot. Regardless, this race should be settled by less than a length, possibly a blanket finish including several horses. It will be an E-ticket thrill ride down to the very end.
I believe that the more classy contenders will prevail in the end. I am not one to look for reasons to bet around a champion that is obviously still in good form. Today will be no different. The most logical spoiler will be the one who is already the year’s biggest spoiler, BIRDSTONE. I believe he really underperformed in the Derby and has been setting the record straight ever since.
Running Early: AZERI, FUNNY CIDE, ROSES IN MAY
Running Late: BIRDSTONE
Good bet to hit the board: PLEASANTLY PERFECT
Win Bet: PLEASANTLY PERFECT
Exacta Bet: Box 4,7,9,12
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 7,12 with 4,7,9,12 with 4,7,9,12
Head-2-Head Bet: BIRDSTONE
Long Shot bet: PERFECT DRIFT
by e-ponies.com
Oct 30, 2004
Intelligence report: Since Lone Star Park is not one of the tracks I typically cover, I have been running the program on Lone Star for the past couple of weeks in order to generate some history. I can use those historical races for comparison purposes. In particular, I wanted to validate the track’s reputation as a speed-favoring track. Here are the results:
Top speed win % Top class win % Top form win% Top overall win%
Lone Star 25% 25% 16.7% 41.7%
All other tracks 21.2 % 20.9% 18.8% 30.6%
For this study, the other tracks had 340 races in the sample. Lone Star had 48 races in the sample. It looks as if my computer program did a nice job at Lone Star overall, picking the winner correctly in 41.7% of the races in the sample. Speed and class both had a stronger influence at Lone Star than at other tracks. Please keep in mind that Breeders’ Cup races are very different from other races. There is no guarantee these results will translate to the Breeders’ Cup races.
Another observation I have made concerns the morning line odds. I seriously question some of these odds. Some are set strangely high, and in some cases I believe the wrong horse has been tabbed as the probably post time favorite. The purpose of the morning line is supposed to be to predict the betting choices of the public, not for the person who sets the morning line odds to apply his judgment on who will win. I will point out these anomalies as I see them. In some cases, these anomalies can be very useful and potentially profitable. In most cases, the betting public will correct the problem as post time approaches. But in other cases, value plays show up on the tote board.
2nd Race Breeders' Cup Nextel Distaff Distance: 1 1/8 Miles Purse: 2,000,000 Surface: Dirt FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Pace Analysis: This year’s Distaff is stacked with early speed. I would typically call it stalking speed, but the overwhelming number of horses that all want to be 3rd or 4th in the early going should pressure the pace. With the decision to race AZERI in the Classic, the sole speed spot is available to TAMWHEEL, but she won’t get much daylight. I do expect that she will go for the lead, but ASHADO is one of many that will not let her get clear. NEBRASKA TORNADO may also see the lead as her only chance to win. ASHADO has never been further back than third in the early going, in her last ten races. Without AZERI in the mix, she does not have to worry about being caught up in a speed duel, so I expect her to stay close. She has the class to go the distance with these. The resulting pace should be fast enough to set up for a late run, but not torturous. Of those likely to close late, ISLAND FASHION and STELLAR JAYNE should be considered the most dangerous. ISLAND FASHION could come from just off the pace, and STELLAR JAYNE from farther back. STORM FLAG FLYING will not be part of the early pace, but if she will run her race, and will be in striking distance as they turn for home.
The Contenders: The Distaff is much more competitive this year than last. The field is large, and many in here have a legitimate shot. ASHADO is the class of the field, having finished in the money in ten straight graded events dating back to last October. She has been the favorite in her last five races, dating back to the KY Oaks, a race which she won impressively. She has been trading punches with STELLAR JAYNE in 2004. Which one comes out on top is usually decided by the pace. ASHADO has done better when conceding the lead early. Had AZERI stayed in this event, I would have expected her to rate more. But without AZERI going, she may go to the front much sooner. STORM FLAG FLYING is another classy contender. She one of just a couple that have actually finished ahead of AZERI. She has only finished off the board once in her lifetime, and there is nothing in her form to indicate she will today.
The next tier of contenders includes SOCIETY SELECTION, ELLOLUV, and STELLAR JAYNE. Of these, STELLAR JAYNE and SOCIETY SELECTION are both in great current form, and the race sets up well for them to close late. SOCIETY SELECTION is on a roll lately, having run ahead of the entire top tier in her last two starts. And she was closing ground on SIGHTSEEK in the Beldame. She has run on the lead, but does her best coming from farther back. She seems to do her best in large fields, besting twelve in The Test and eight in the Alabama. The large field in this one should suit her fine, as should the pace. If she can run back to her recent form, she is very dangerous. ASHADO is the horse to beat in this one. I am throwing out her dull effort in the Alabama. With the distance at just 9 furlongs, she should be able to outrun SOCIETY SELECTION to the wire. ASHADO should go off the favorite, although a tepid one. STORM FLAG FLYING and SOCIETY SELECTION will compete for second choice honors somewhere between 3:1 and 4:1.
Running Early: TAMWHEEL
Running Late: SOCIETY SELECTION, STELLAR JAYNE
Good bet to hit the board: ASHADO
Win Bet: ASHADO
Exacta Bet: Box 1,3,4
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 1,4 with 1,3,4,7 with 1,3,4,7
Pick Three Bet: 1,4 with 1,5,9 with 6,11,12
Head-2-Head Bet: ASHADO
Long Shot Bet: STELLAR JAYNE
3rd Race Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Purse: 1,000,000 Surface: Dirt FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD
Pace Analysis: I consider this to be a very unusual Juvenile Fillies in that there are not that many in here that have won in wire to wire fashion in any of their starts. Usually, there are at least four to six contenders that have just one or two wins, but in wire to wire fashion. Truly, the only flame thrower in this one is SIS CITY. She has just one shot to win this one, and that is on the lead, so that is where she will go again. She almost stole the Frizette, and will likely get clear again in this one. HIGHER WORLD, QUIET HONOR and SENSE OF STYLE all have shown some early speed and could be part of the pace scenario. It will not take much to get SIS CITY to fade, but someone is going to have to do the dirty work. I expect the pace to be honest, but not blistering. SIS CITY will try to get two lengths on the field, but if she can get just one length and conserve, she will do that. I look for someone to come from mid-pack to win in the last 70 yards. Those mid-pack closers include: BALLETTO, READY’S GAL, RUNAWAY MODEL. Running very late will be CULTURE CLASH.
The Contenders: In these sort of events, there is so little to differentiate on, and what there is to study looks very much the same as all the others in the field. And the horses are coming into form very unpredictably as two-year olds. Having said that, a couple in here have differentiated themselves in terms of size of field, and lifetime earnings. Those classy competitors include SWEET CATOMINE, BALLETTO and SENSE OF STYLE. Last year, I told you to take HALFBRIDLED, even at short odds, but this year I would not recommend jumping on the back of a heavy favorite. However, these three should be near co-favorites and the rest will be a very nice price. SWEET CATOMINE has been made the morning line favorite at 5:2, but I do not agree she should be marked ahead of SENSE OF STYLE. Her competition has not been as impressive as SENSE OF STYLE or BALLETTO. Her late running style is a plus, but none of the top three will be consumed by a hot pace.
Another nice differentiator is the trouble line. Looking for horses that have found trouble and still prevailed to hit the board is a worthwhile study. In that category, I would include CULTURE CLASH, CULINARY and SENSE OF STYLE. On the other hand, those that seem to always find trouble, should be left alone, such as RUNWAY MODEL. CULTURE CLASH is another that I do not agree with the morning line odds. I agree she is a long shot, but came from way back in her first race, and found trouble in her next. I’m not convinced she should be thrown out.
Overall, SENSE OF STYLE is a notch above the rest. My computer dinged her for her last effort where she found trouble and threw in the towel, but I am throwing that race out. Her running style puts her near the front relatively quickly, so she is not habitually in trouble. From this position she will be close enough to strike late. SWEET CATOMINE may go off the favorite, and that will allow SENSE OF STYLE to go off at about 7:2.
Running Early: SIS CITY
Running Late: BALLETTO, READY’S GAL, SWEET CATOMINE
Good bet to hit the board: SENSE OF STYLE
Win Bet: SENSE OF STYLE
Exacta Bet: Box 1,5,9
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 1,9 with 1,5,9,10 with 1,5,9,10
Pick Three Bet: 1,5,9 with 6,11,12 with 2,6
Head-2-Head Bet: CULINARY
Long Shot Bet: CULTURE CLASH
4th Race Breeders' Cup Netjets Mile Distance: 1 Mile Purse: 1,500,000 Surface: Turf FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Pace analysis: Finding the probable pace-setters took some effort in this one. There will be some speed, but it will be set by just a couple. The vast majority are closers, some of them deep closers. SOARING FREE and SPECIAL RING are the likely pacesetters. Both have wins in wire to wire fashion, going further, against full fields, so do not discount the early speed in this one, even though it is a turf race. These two will likely be clear of the rest, but not by more than two lengths. They should set honest fractions. Big contenders ARTIE SCHILLER and MR O’BRIEN are two such who will be stalking in the early going. In the early going, it could be a fairly spread out field, for a field this size. NOTHING TO LOSE will be further back, probably slower than mid-pack in the early going. The front two will still be clear as they reach the final turn, but will come back to the pack as they near the eighth pole.
The Contenders: I predicted SIX PERFECTIONS to win this event last year and she won at a decent price. She has done nothing much since except become a beaten favorite. My computer still likes her, and so do I for all the same reasons as last year. She has been running in some very big fields, with some of the best turf horses in Europe. Her recent form does not look that strong, so she should be a high price for a defending champ. NOTHING TO LOSE is the morning line favorite, though I think it is a bit flattering. He has had a decent year in 2004, and is well traveled, with wins in many different tracks at different distances. His last two races are probably his most formful, winning both with a steady drive. ARTIE SCHILLER is the horse to beat in this one. It is crazy to see his morning line odds at 12:1. That will not hold, but I’d be excited to see him as high as 5:1. He deserves much more respect than that, even if running against older horses. He has a great running style and always runs his race. MR O’BRIEN had a nice coming out party at Pimlico on Preakness day in the Dixie. However, he has been very inconsistent since, and could probably use some more distance to be most dangerous. Considering the pace and form, the race appears to set up well for ARTIE SCHILLER. Last year’s recommended win bet becomes this year’s long shot bet, SIX PERFECTIONS. You should get at least 8:1 on her. Another long shot worth considering is SINGLETARY. This horse always finds a way to hit the board. He tends to see more than his share of trouble, but hitting the board consistently with turf horses is a big plus. His 15:1 odds will likely hold up, and that makes him a decent value.
Running Early: SOARING FREE, SPECIAL RING
Running Late: SIX PERFECTIONS, NOTHING TO LOSE, HONOR IN WAR
Good bet to hit the board: ARTIE SCHILLER
Win Bet: ARTIE SCHILLER
Exacta Bet: Box 3,6,11,12
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 6,11 with 3,6,11,12 with 3,6,11,12
Pick Three Bet: 6,11,12 with 2,6 with 5,9,10
Head-2-Head Bet: SIX PERFECTIONS
Long Shot bet: SIX PERFECTIONS, SINGLETARY
5th Race Breeders' Cup Sprint Distance: 6 Furlongs Purse: 1,000,000 Surface: Dirt FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Pace Analysis: The most important race to actually study the fractions is the Sprint. In this Sprint, there appears to be no one interested in setting fractions of 21 flat, as was the case last year. SPEIGHTSTOWN will likely be the early leader, and his best first quarter is 21.5 seconds. Even CAJUN BEAT, last year’s surprise in this event, has yet to do better than 22 flat in the first quarter since his victory. GOLD STORM has some cheap speed, but even if he tears it up in 21 and small change, I don’t expect him to play in the final outcome. SPEIGHTSTOWN is a much disciplined horse that will run his race regardless. If he loses, it will not be the result of a speed duel. It will simply be the effect of someone stepping up (like last year with CAJUN BEAT). At the finish line, expect the clock to read 2 ticks either side of 1:08 flat. SPEIGHTSTOWN will turn in his usual 1:08.
The Contenders: This race does not appear to be very interesting on paper, and will likely be the worst betting race of the day. SPEIGHTSTOWN is an obvious choice to win, and most any other win wager would require some serious speculation. CAJUN BEAT has proven himself a one-trick pony. BWANA CHARLIE is one of just a couple of closers, but his best time is not good enough to win this one. CLOCK STOPPER also does not have a finish fast enough that running back to would be good enough. GOLD STORM will be consumed by the pace. MIDAS EYES is better at 7 furlongs. The only two that look worth a speculation wager are OUR NEW RECRUIT and ABBONDANZA. ABBONDANZA is the next very curious morning line odds situation. I can not imagine why he was disrespected so seriously. ABBONDANZA won his last race in 1:08.11, which may be good enough today if he can repeat. He has also run ahead of BWANA CHARLIE in their only meeting. Admittedly, he is stepping up in class today and it would take a great trip, but 50:1 makes no sense. He has a shot. OUR NEW RECRUIT earned some respect in the UAE, and then backed it up with a nice sprint performance prepping for this race. But despite the big paycheck in the UAE, he is outclassed by SPEIGHTSTOWN. In a nutshell, none of these has the sustained performance to look like they can put up a fight with SPEIGHTSTOWN in his typical effort. In fact, most do not look capable of putting up a fight if they run back to their best effort. With the exception of last year, recent year’s Sprints had been pretty formful. I expect a return to that today with SPEIGHTSTOWN winning.
Running Early: SPEIGHTSTOWN, GOLD STORM
Running Late: BWANA CHARLIE
Good bet to hit the board: SPEIGHTSTOWN
Win Bet: SPEIGHTSTOWN
Exacta Bet: Box 2,4,6
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 2,6 with 2,4,6 with 2,3,4,6,7,13
Pick Three Bet: 2,6 with 5,9,10 with 3,6,7
Head-2-Head Bet: CLOCK STOPPER
Long Shot Bet: ABBONDANZA
6th Race VO5 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf Distance: 1 3/8 Miles Purse: 1,000,000 Surface: Turf FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Pace Analysis: With so little obvious early speed in this one, it looks like a race that could be stolen. Any of the likely leaders will be so for the first time. And since this race is longer than what most of these typically run at, the leaders could back it down another notch and set even softer fractions. As a result, the pace will be quite deliberate. WONDER AGAIN and MOSCOW BURNING may inherit the lead just by running their usual race. RISKAVERSE may also find herself more forwardly placed than usual. Any one of these three could be candidates for a theft. The short stretch at Lone Star also makes a theft even more appealing to clever connections. If no one races to the lead, look for the winner to come from no further back than mid-pack in the early going, and no further back than fourth as they hit the turn. The morning line favorite, OUIJA BOARD likes to stay fairly close, and should be able to with the pace I expect to see. Her connections will likely not want her on the lead though.
The Contenders: This event is supposed to be one that will be dominated by the Europeans, and I can see why. The Western contenders are not as strong as in recent years. OUIJA BOARD fairly earns the second shortest morning line odds out of all these BC races. Her third place effort in the Arc, against males, was a monster performance that should easily be good enough today. I do not believe bettors will get 8:5 on OUIJA BOARD. American bettors will be looking for a US-based horse to back, and find none. So the money will be focused on the favorite. I expect something closer to even money by post time. LIGHT JIG is the second European contender. She has risen quickly through the ranks, jumping from allowance races just four races back. But she has held form as she moved up. Her last effort was an impressive win in Grade I company, beating nine others. I like seeing her with at least one race in the states, but all of her US starts were in California. MEGAHERTZ lost a puzzler as a heavy favorite in a four-horse race last time out. Prior to that, she had three wins in a row in graded races. Her effort in this race last year was an impressive one, closing with a rush to finish fifth at long odds. She is definitely an improved horse now. She also has nothing recent in her form outside of California. WONDER AGAIN is also coming off a race she had no excuse for losing. RISKAVERSE was the winner of that race, but that does not completely explain the sixth place finish. RISKAVERSE has two wins and two seconds in graded events since this same race last year, yet still does not get much respect anywhere she goes. She has earned over $700,000 in 2004, but has only been the favorite once in her last five starts. I am one who is ready to respect her. Her running style looks good here too. The problem with any horse coming back to this race from last year, in improved form, is that OUIJA BOARD was not in that one, and she is in the race today. She is the best of this bunch and last year’s field combined. RISKAVERSE will be my long shot bet again this year, as she was in this event last year.
Running Early: MOSCOW BURNING, WONDER AGAIN
Running Late: RISKAVERSE
Good bet to hit the board: OUIJA BOARD
Win Bet: OUIJA BOARD
Exacta Bet: Wheel 5.9 with 4,5,7,9,10,11
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 5,9 with 5,7,9,10 with 5,7,9,10
Pick Three Bet: 5,9,10 with 3,6,7
Head-2-Head Bet: MEGAHERTZ
Long Shot Bet: RISKAVERSE
7th Race Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Purse: 1,500,000 Surface: Dirt FOR COLTS AND GELDINGS, TWO YEARS OLD
Pace Analysis: Much like the Juvenile Fillies, none of these come in off just a couple of wire-to-wire wins. There are usually at least two such in this event. The other striking thing about this race is the small field. Both those two factors could depress the pace. SCANDINAVIA and CONSOLIDATOR could inherit the lead, but will not tear up aggressive fractions in setting the pace. PROUD ACCOLADE may also take to the lead if the fractions are too soft. His connections may want him to take the lead if it is offered, just to make matters worse for the favorite, ROMAN RULER. With the short stretch, horses will need to be in position by the top of the turn. As a result, expect a tight field and positioning battle with everyone trying to keep the lead horse in their sites.
The Contenders: ROMAN RULER comes in as a moderate favorite, but is very beatable. He is three for four lifetime, but has competed in some very small fields. He obviously could have beaten more in these events, but he has not had to worry much about traffic, or pressure on the lead at any point. This is the second biggest field he has faced, and the most competitive (although still the weakest Juvenile fields I have seen in a long time). The distance does not appear to be a concern, given his racing form and breeding. However, I expect him to be bet down to close to even money, and he does not deserve that. You have to keep him in your exotics, because he looks the best on paper, but he can be beaten. PROUD ACCOLADE looked great in his first two, and then went two turns. Went four wide to win by a half length over AFLEET ALEX. That was an impressive performance, and something similar today makes him the winner. I cannot find any reason to call that race a fluke, so a similar finish today should be no surprise. AFLEET ALEX has looked great in each of his five career starts, has a nice stalking style, and clearly wants the distance. The race boils down to these three. The rest are speculation bets at best. ROMAN RULER has everything going for him on paper, but I think the value proposition will be wrong at short odds. I will look elsewhere. TWICE UNBRIDLED gets 50:1 morning line, based primarily on the fact that he is still a maiden. But this field is so small, and very weak past my top three. He has found a lot of trouble in both his two starts, but still finished strong. He becomes my long shot bet. I think that is another example of a crazy morning line odds, especially for a eight-horse race.
Running Early: CONSOLIDATOR
Running Late: AFLEET ALEX
Good bet to hit the board: PROUD ACCOLADE
Win Bet: PROUD ACCOLADE
Exacta Bet: Box 3,6,7
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 3,6 with 3,4,6,7 with 3,4,6,7
Pick Three Bet: 3,6,7 with 3,4 wih 4,7,12
Head-2-Head Bet: CONSOLIDATOR
Long Shot Bet: TWICE UNBRIDLED
8th Race Breeders' Cup John Deere Turf Distance: 1 1/2 Miles Purse: 2,000,000 Surface: Turf FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Pace analysis: STAR OVER THE BAY is the sole speed in the race. He earns my computer’s top speed score by a large margin. The next closest, according to the computer, are MUSTANFAR and POWERSCOURT. However, both of these are obviously not the early speed types, so those speed scores must be based on final times or high speed figures. STAR OVER THE BAY’s only chance to win is to wire it, so expect him to race to the front and try to hold it. It would not be surprising if he tries to open several lengths on the field. If the track is less than firm, he gets even more dangerous. He comes off an impressive wire to wire win. STAR OVER THE BAY is definitely dangerous loose on the lead. As the oldest horse in the field (6yo), he is a bit of a late bloomer, earning $493K of his lifetime $638K in 2004. It is rare to see a horse come into form so late in life, but he has earned a spot here.
The Contenders: KITTEN’S JOY earns the shortest morning line odds of any favorite today, and he deserves it. He runs a patient, stalking style that is lethal in turf races. His margins of victory over some very talented fields have been very comfortable. This field is no tougher than some of those races. If he runs his race, he wins. POWERSCOURT and MAGISTRETTI both have higher class scores, but that is largely driven by the size of the fields they have faced. My computer rewards for big fields. Based on the computer score, there is a wide gap between the first three mentioned above, and the rest of the field. They certainly have races under their belt that proves they belong in this one, but their best efforts today would not be enough to beat KITTEN’S JOY in a fairly average effort. REQUEST FOR PAROLE will be running in his sixth straight Grade I event, but his performance in them has been spotty. I can not find a reason to think he is sitting on a big one. STRUT THE STAGE used to be a speedster, but has learned how to rate. He has as much of a shot as any of these to upset KITTEN’S JOY. He has been running in Canada very respectably. If the favorite does not fire, he could be a decent play at a nice price.
Running Early: STAR OVER THE BAY
Running Late: KITTEN’S JOY, MUSTANFAR
Good bet to hit the board: KITTEN’S JOY
Win Bet: KITTEN’S JOY
Exacta Bet: Wheel 3,4 with ALL
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 3,4 with 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,4,6
Pick Three Bet: 3,4 with 4,7,12 with 4,6
Head-2-Head Bet: KITTEN’S JOY
Long Shot Bet: STRUT THE STAGE
9th Race Breeders' Cup Classic Powered By Dodge Distance: 1 1/4 Miles Purse: 4,000,000 Surface: Dirt FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Pace Analysis: For the Classic, there is not a ton of speed in this one. FUNNY CIDE earns my top speed score, but he is more of a close stalker. He will not want to tear it up on the front end too early. ROSES IN MAY earns a strong speed score, and his past performances look more like a front runner. What happens with AZERI will be interesting. With the fillies, her style is to lead, but that style will make her vulnerable today. If her connections are interested in seeing her run impressively in a losing effort, they will turn her loose on the lead. If they really want to win, they would be wise to ask her to rate. But then they run the risk of a performance like the last time she faced colts. In that effort she never got to the lead and then faded under pressure. Regardless of how she plays it, the distance and the competition from the colts will be too much for her and she should not play in the pace scenario. GHOSTZAPPER has shown some speed in the recent past. Farter back, he has a last-to-first effort. I expect him to be close to the lead in this one. I do not expect his connections to want him to have to deal with a very wide trip or lots of horses to pass. The catbird seat looks like third to fifth in the early going. A deeper closer for the win is possible, although the pace scenario is less than perfect for it. Expect respectable fractions, but nothing crazy fast.
The Contenders: This race will live up to its name. It should be a classic. It has all the requirements – Horse of the Year considerations, stacked field, ambiguous pace scenario, to name just a few. Any one of about six horses can make a strong case for why they should win this one. Another couple can make a less strong case. I will go over them one at a time.
PLEASANTLY PERFECT – if you were hoping I would give you some reason to bet around the returning champion, I do not have any. He has owned this distance for two years now, and has run back to his BC effort already once this year. He appears to handle layoffs well, although that has traditionally been a knock for this particular race. In the Pacific Classic, the race line reads “gamely” but that does not do it justice. It looked like a hand ride to me. He will run his race today. Losing it will be a function of some other horse’s performance.
BIRDSTONE – I believed in him in the Belmont (although my heart was with Smarty Jones). I believed that his Derby performance was lackluster and he would rebound in the Belmont. Many still doubted him after that effort and sent him off at nearly 5:1 in the Travers. He was dominant in the Travers, taking over when ready. He is for real, and he also has handled layoffs well in his career. Bred for this distance, eats it up just like his daddy. Speed up front plays to his strengths, but even a moderate pace may be enough for him to close on them.
FUNNY CIDE – Lifetime earnings of $3million, and $1million in 2004 says that he is for real, and he has not really pulled back much in 2004. He is running close to his Derby form. The way he came back after being headed in the Gold Cup was the same sort of heart he showed in his Triple Crown efforts. His poor effort in this event last year is a toss-out. That was his clunker. Do not expect another today.
GHOSTZAPPER – Four straight wins and six out of his last seven is impressive. A couple of those wins were by large, widening margins. He has a nice stalking style that should keep him well placed throughout. The only knock on him is his lack of racing history, and the fact that he has faced some very small fields. It has been a long time since I threw out a horse this good, but I am doing it today. I believe he will be part of a tough pace and will give way in the end.
ROSES IN MAY – looks a lot like GHOSTZAPPER on paper, with a little extra boost because he has beaten a very classy PERFECT DRIFT twice already. He also boasts much more early speed. He will definitely be part of the pace. However, that is one of the most popular criticisms of him. Many do not believe that he can not go the extra distance today. He has shown some distance limitations in the past, and the early pace will be fast enough to make him burn some gas getting to the front.
AZERI – she is one heck of a horse, but has not fared well against colts in the past. And she picked a tough one to try again. This Classic field is a very powerful bunch of horses and I cannot see her holding on for a piece.
PERFECT DRIFT – This horse has been running well all year but keeps getting beat by horses having a slightly better day. It would not take much of a step up at all to put this horse on top. Running style is versatile.
THE REST – would take a stepping up of epic proportions to win.
Overall, this race boils down to whether or not there will be enough early speed to set it up for a late run. It looks like it could be stolen on the front end, most likely by ROSES IN MAY, but it would be a gutsy move to send this horse to the lead too early if his connections are already worried about his distance capability. Other than that one, no one else is likely to try a theft. If no theft is attempted, expect ROSES IN MAY, FUNNY CIDE and AZERI to all be part of the early pace, setting honest fractions. GHOSTZAPPER, PLEASANTLY PERFECT, and PERFECT DRIFT will settle in the next pack. Further back, BIRDSTONE will wait for his chance. If the pace is too soft, either ROSES IN MAY holds on or PLEASANTLY PERFECT takes over and wins. If the pace is strong enough, BIRDSTONE gets the best shot. Regardless, this race should be settled by less than a length, possibly a blanket finish including several horses. It will be an E-ticket thrill ride down to the very end.
I believe that the more classy contenders will prevail in the end. I am not one to look for reasons to bet around a champion that is obviously still in good form. Today will be no different. The most logical spoiler will be the one who is already the year’s biggest spoiler, BIRDSTONE. I believe he really underperformed in the Derby and has been setting the record straight ever since.
Running Early: AZERI, FUNNY CIDE, ROSES IN MAY
Running Late: BIRDSTONE
Good bet to hit the board: PLEASANTLY PERFECT
Win Bet: PLEASANTLY PERFECT
Exacta Bet: Box 4,7,9,12
Trifecta Bet: Wheel 7,12 with 4,7,9,12 with 4,7,9,12
Head-2-Head Bet: BIRDSTONE
Long Shot bet: PERFECT DRIFT