Breeders' Cup

[smooth53_98]

Breeders' Cup Plays (some analysis to follow):

R2 1-4-11-7
R3 4-10-9-8
R4 12-11-3-1
R5 11-5-9-2
R6 5-7-12-11
R7 1-2-3-6
R8 4-1-6-3
R9 1-12-9-13

-smooth

[smooth53_98]

DISTAFF

ASHADO is an great three year old filly prospect and suddenly becomes the one of the top candidates here with the defection of Azeri to run in the Classic, the field is now wide open as any of the top three here have a formidable shot. SOCIETY SELECTION is in the same boat as Ashado, likely to improve as time goes on while still be untested at this high of a level of competition, she is likely to improve second off the shelf here for Jerkens, but is not likely to see as fragile of an early pace as she say when she won the Alabama. STELLAR JAYNE could be a factor on the early pace, but just like the rest of the contenders there is question as to her class and seasoning, inclined to think that she is really has an outside shot for the top spot band is more likely for a minor share. STORM FLAG FLYING has not had a standout year after a very promising 3 year old season, in this open of a field, she may find herself around the leaders late.

[smooth53_98]

Juv Fillies (Race 3)

RUNWAY MODEL added Lasix as she tried a two turn route last out in the Alcibiad at Keeneland, she showed maturity with the solid stalking run, and has shown the ability to rate effectively in the past. Her connections are average in conditions like these, but the pace scenario seems to favor a stalker who will take advantage of an overload of speed early here. SWEET CATOMINE also showed maturity with her win in the Oak Leaf last out over a much faster and speed favoring course and considering that she did break her maiden in an G1 race at Del Mar, she is a very strong contender, however I am inclined to go with the horse that faced a slower surface coming into this race. SENSE OF STYLE did not care for two turns as she watched Runway Model make a strong surge late in her last, Biacone is always dangerous with his juveniles so figure she will be around late in this one. MONA LISA may still be a maiden but has solid connections and European pedigree, he breeding suggests ability on the dirt and her efforts on the grass should have given her enough bottom to contend here.

[smooth53_98]

Mile (Race 4)

NOTHING TO LOSE only seems to keep getting better and is off of back to back graded wins for Frankel who does extremely well in graded turf stakes, this colt has shown the ability to press and stalk which will help him here as the turf course tends to favor stalkers. SIX PERFECTIONS won this race last year and is a very strong contender here again as the European imports are getting tougher to beat each year in the race, her stalking style does help here but she has not been as impressive this year as she was last year. SPECIAL RING will likely fall victim to the track bias here as he likes to be on the lead which is not favorable over this course or in this race historically, you have to go back to 1992 and 1993 to see that Lure was on or close to the pace in both of his winning efforts, which is not likely to be repeated here over this course. WHIPPER beat out Six Perfections two back over a soft course, this 3 year old could be the sleeper of this field and will be a factor late in the race, he could be a major upset in this spot.

[smooth53_98]

Sprint (Race 5)

CAJUN BEAT shocked us all with a win in this race last year at 23-1, his versatile style will help here as there will be a contested early pace and the winner will not likely go wire to wire. His effort in the Vosburgh was anything but spectacular, however Frankel does score well with his second off the layoff. KELA will try to benefit from a highly contested pace here in only his second try at this distance, he does have a win over this course this year, and will be dangerous if the early pace can not hold up. GOLD STORM is showing great form right now, however his class is questionable having only placed in the Phoenix facing some of the same faces here, hard to dismiss with 3 wins over this course. SPEIGHTSTOWN peaked this summer at the Spa with after a solid spring campaign, expect this Pletcher horse to get bet down and burn a lot of money as he is really only a threat for the underneath in your exotics.

[smooth53_98]

F & M Turf (Race 6)

OUIJA BOARD wisely opted for this spot over the Turf, she has shown she can handle the distance in the past and will be aided by her off the pace style here over a course that is not too likely to dry out. LIGHT JIG can contend at this distance and has been in great form lately, however she has not had to face any real stiff competition in the US and may burn some money at the windows as a result. WONDER AGAIN could be the sleeper of this field, she did beat a moderate field in the Diana over a soft course and crushed the field in the Diana over a yielding course at the Spa, her last effort was a little flat but she can be expected to improve here second off of the layoff. YESTERDAY ran third in this race last year after a pretty solid season overseas, this year she has been somewhat unimpressive in her two starts yet O'Brien does not ship them here to lose so figure this one should fire and at least cash a check here.

[smooth53_98]

Juvenile (Race 7)

It is as open of a field as any in a small juvenile field here. SUN KING is bred for two turns and has a better shot here if he can rate off the pace and try to strike late. ROMAN RULER is likely to be more focused in this spot and will likely contend for the early pace but has shown the ability to rate, hard to dismiss this Baffert colt from the top spot. AFLEET ALEX turned in a sharp work this week and will also benefit from going around two turns here, losing that last race will do him some good as he did run well and make two moves in the Champagne. PROUD ACCOLADE did beat two of this field last out in the Champagne but may not like having to negotiate two turns, his sire is not known for getting repeat winners of his juveniles to break maiden, with the exception of this colt, hard to dismiss, but more likely for the underneath on your tickets.

[smooth53_98]

Turf (Race 8)

KITTEN'S JOY just keeps getting better with each start, he proved he can handle the distance over a yielding course at Belmont last out after crushing the field is his two previous starts at Arlington and Colonial. He is likely to improve here second off of the layoff and has been an amazing 8 of 9 on the weeds over all types of surfaces from firm to yielding, the rest of this field just is not as strong as he is coming into this race. POWERSCOURT was disqualified in the Arlington Million this year after a nice move pre-stretch, he is a bit of a question mark at this distance with his only real good effort coming last summer against moderate competition, more likely for a minor share. MAGISTRETTI could be the upset choice here however could not handle Kitten's Joy last out and did not face that tough of a test in the Man O War, he should be around late for a minor share. STRUT THE STAGE has shown glimpses of greatness in the past, but which Strut The Stage will show up to race, class is an issue as he has never won a G1 event despite an outstanding turf record (10 of 22), use in exotics as he is overmatched here.

[smooth53_98]

Classic (Race 9)

GHOSTZAPPER proved that he could handle two turns this past summer at the Jersey Shore with a 128 Beyer in the Iselin in the slop and then followed that effort up with a nice pressing effort in the Woodward at Belmont last month, Frankel has a hot horse who has been drilling well and can handle the distance, he is just simply the best animal in this field right now. PLEASANTLY PERFECT will try to repeat in the Classic after winning the Dubai World Cup earlier this year, only knock against him in this spot is the layoff , typically he has run his best second off the layoff, however with his class and ability he is still a strong contender here. FUNNY CIDE has rounded back into solid form for Tagg after winning the Jockey's Club Gold Cup last out at his home track of Belmont, however the hot pace may burn him out a bit, yet he should still be considered a threat here. DYNEVER has struggled beyond 9 furlongs, however with such a hot pace anticipated, his closing style could benefit as the pace disintegrates as they turn for home, plus he did have a solid win over this course overcoming the bias against closers in the Lone Star Derby a year and a half ago.

[Hellboy]

Great stuff, Smooth !!!
Many thanks.
Great Breeders Cup day.

[smooth53_98]

Your welcome, I did manage 4 winners, but I was at the Rutgers/West Virginia game instead of playing the ponies yesterday... Rutgers made it close late but some real questionable officiating made the game tough for Rutgers. Although when the WV QB got thrown out of the game for a second personal foul, we booed him... he flipped us the finger and some kid from about 20 rows up nailed him with a soda.... Rutgers should give that kid a scholarship!!!

-smooth