Big Apple Report-September 23, 2004

[turfaccountant]

Big Apple Report-September 23, 2004

1st Race-Belmont
6-Pip.................$100 Show

Good Luck!!!!

[smooth53_98]

Nice call on Pip... 4.20 winner, 2.30 for the show.

I was wondering how you decide the amounts and type of wagers you use for your selections. You seem to hit them with a great frequency and just from the days that I take the time to check your results, you are typically right on. Nice job and keep up the good work!

-smooth

[turfaccountant]

Smooth53_98

Thanks for the kind words....I look at horse race handicapping and wagering as an investment, rather than a gamble. I am not too worried about a daily net/loss, I am in it for the long run. I am looking at a +/- for a meeting or month or year. Most gamblers look for the "quick buck" I learned a long time ago that you will most certainly go broke that way. It puts too much pressre on your handicapping, affecting the way you assess certain factors. I look at each race and decide if my horse can be beaten, and if so, by whom? If not, then can the second choice be beaten by a longshot for the place spot? Yesterday I took a a horse at Fairplex that paid $3.60 to win. I played it to place because I felt the second choice was weak and the rest of the field was wide open. The horse did win, but paid $3.00 to place with a 30-1 beating the second choice for the second spot. If you assess risk/reward, you have to like a $3.00 place price on a 4-5 shot with the insurance of a place bet.
Conversely, I PASS many races every day because the risk reward reward is just not there based upon the way a race shakes out and the anticipated odds. Remeber, I 'm looking at a long term investment here, so consistent is the way to go. Most players who follow me realize that when they no longer are "reloading" their offshore accounts and actually start drawing money form it! Thanks again and I hope this helps you understand my approach.

[smooth53_98]

turfaccountant,

I agree with you whole-heartedly on playing as an investment. I usually look at 3-5 race cards a day and generally only come up with 1 or 2 plays a day. I usually stick to WPS (or some combination of that) and if I can string a few races together I'll take a shot at the double or Pick 3. I do bet some exactas, but generally only when I feel I can key that top horse and back it up if he gets second.

Good luck to you, and I would love to see how well you do over the long haul with your posting here. Too many people get scared away from playing the 'right' chalk on lower payoffs... instead they'll sink a pile of money into longshots that are not worth the risk.

Keep those winners coming!

-smooth

[turfaccountant]

Smooth53_98

Exactly...there are two types of chalk...."right " chalk and "wrong" chalk. I have absolutely no probelm playing the "right" chalk if it can not be beaten. I play very few exotics, and like you, if I can get two out of three races in a pick three string figured, I will wheel the remaining race if the race type lends itself to an upset. In SoCal for example, turf stakes or handicaps have yielded some pretty nice pick threes with the wheel. The same with an unplayable 7f contest. By thge way, I noticed the Rutgers helmet and New Brunswick address. I'm a Jersey boy too, grew up in Colonia, right next to Rahway! Go Scarlet Knights!!!

[smooth53_98]

I know Colonia well, I grew up in Cranford and work in Westfield. I just sold my house in Edison and am back in Cranford. I worked two summers for Merck over at the Rahway site. I can't convince the wife to move to Vegas, so Jersey will have to do! I went to Rutgers College of Engineering, Class of '98. Too bad those Knights got whupped pretty good by New Hampshire... no ability to stop the passing game that day.... they do not seen to adapt well when the opposition changes what they are doing, not blaming the kids, but I think Schiano does get a little tunnel vision at times.

[turfaccountant]

Smooth53_98

Cranford, huh? I used to go trout fishing in the Rahway River near the Osceola Church in Cranford (Ed. note: Rahway River & Ohio Rivers can BOTH be set on fire with all the chemicals in them!!) Those fish were sure hardy!! Had one come back to life after being out of the water for four hours while I was cleaning him in the deep sink!! Have to agree wit you about Schiano, though. Check out the SoCal report, I have a play there today. I'm treading a bit light at Fairplex as its in the last few days of its meeting and they're cleaning out the barns.

[smooth53_98]

I used to go fishing down in that spot as a kid for trout (and in that skunky pond next to it for bass). That is literally blocks from where I grew up. Small world, isn't it.

I'll keep an eye on your SoCal for later... no betting for me today, I had a pre-bid meeting this morning up in beautiful Harrison, NJ. I have been processing paperwork and talking to my contractors since I got back.

I've never done all that well with those smaller SoCal meets, I generally have stayed away from them in the past just because I don't follow that circuit too closely. I generally follow and play NJ, Philly, Delaware, Lrl/Pim, Finger Lakes, and some evening tracks (Penn, CT).