Tweet
delmar----last day
This will be the final spot play of the Del Mar meet. We'll see you back on Wed. Sept 29th for opening day at Santa Anita!
__________________________________________________ __________________
DEL MAR -- Race #4 -- BEAR IN THE WOODS (#2)
__________________________________________________ __________________
The 4th race today is an N1X allowance race at a mile on the dirt. Par is 105. BEAR IN THE WOODS (3-1) gets the call as our final spot play of the meet. He broke his maiden impressively in his debut race going 5-1/2 furlongs on turf at Hollywood (not an easy thing to do in your first lifetime race). Figures for that effort were a 98-100+ for the 102 maiden level, but that's not bad considering it was his debut. Improvement was expected the next time and he did improve to a 103-103-103 when stretched out to a mile on turf, which was only good for 4th place beaten 2 lengths in an allowance race similar to today. Off that allowance effort they made a confident (a little too confident) jump to the Grade 2 Swaps stakes. BEAR IN THE WOODS ran OK considering it was his first try on dirt, first try at 1-1/8 miles and the fact he was facing a very talented Rock Hard Ten who posted an outrageously fast interior split of 22 and 4/5 seconds between the slowish half mile and the 3/4 mile mark. BEAR IN THE WOODS held his own during the interior and was moving better through much of the race than the running line suggests.
Blinkers are being added to BEAR IN THE WOODS today and I'm glad because from watching his races on video he makes menacing middle moves and then seems to lose his focus late in the race. Craig Dollase clicks with 25% wins when adding blinkers and I don't think they are being added to enhance the early speed of BEAR as much as they are there to keep his mind on business for the entire race.
The funny thing here is that Tyler Baze and Corey Nakatani are hooked up in a big-time duel for the jockey title and are 1 win apart going into today. Tyler rode BEAR IN THE WOODS last time but is riding an Argentinian import POLEMICO today so it looks like Tyler is choosing to get off BEAR IN THE WOODS in favor of POLEMICO. However, don't read too much into that type of switch because the important thing to note is that Nakatani is always going to be the first call of Craig Dollase because he is Dollase's brother in law. Last time Tyler rode BEAR IN THE WOODS only because Corey had the chance of riding the 3/5 standout Rock Hard Ten in the Grade 2 race. I'm sure his brother in law understood why he wanted to ride Rock Hard that day that day rather than the unproven BEAR IN THE WOODS. But now BEAR is back in the allowance ranks and Corey is the "go to" guy for Dollase and I'm thinking that Dollase won't mind giving his brother in law a live mount on the final day of the meet to help him win the riding title. There, how's that for a jockey switch?
I do think that MAJOR SUCCESS is a vulnerable favorite today and when I saw 2-1 on him it was a big reason to play this race. The colt comes out of the Bobby Frankel barn and was an impressive winner going long at Hollywood Park. However, the race was as a 2 year old back in November. His figures weren't bad -- (103-103-100) for the 99 2 year old maiden level so they were actually a little above par. But the colt is making his first start in 10 months and is also by Mazel Trick. There's still limited data out there, but I haven't been impressed with the ability for many of the Mazel Trick offspring to route effectively at a high level. I know this guy has talent and is in the hands of a fantastic trainer but I am confident that a sharper BEAR IN THE WOODS will beat this horse today. MAJOR SUCCESS will be watched and possibly played in a future spot.
LISTEN INDY (7-2) is the main choice to pair up with BEAR IN THE WOODS. INDY loves Del Mar (his only win and only 2nd place finishes have been at this track) and he's coming off a solid 101-102-105 at this same level. That effort equals the par for this level which would make him tough to beat. He's from the powerful Richard Mandella barn and is a son of A.P. Indy, but this guy is possibly the laziest horse on the grounds. He's flashed a 105 figure a couple of times but still has not cleared the N1X allowance level in 8 tries. He's been a disappointment to me and I'm sure he's been disappointment to his trainer. I do think he's in line for another good effor today which should easily be good enough for a top 2 finish but he just doesn't have that killer instinct so is best used as a backup quinella play.
BEAR IN THE WOODS is the final spot play win bet of the meet. We'll also key him in a main quinella to LISTEN INDY and a smaller quinella to MAJOR SUCCESS. Good luck and we'll see you back again after at Santa Anita/Oak Tree!
__________________________________________________ __________________
DEL MAR -- Race #4 -- BEAR IN THE WOODS (#2)
__________________________________________________ __________________
The 4th race today is an N1X allowance race at a mile on the dirt. Par is 105. BEAR IN THE WOODS (3-1) gets the call as our final spot play of the meet. He broke his maiden impressively in his debut race going 5-1/2 furlongs on turf at Hollywood (not an easy thing to do in your first lifetime race). Figures for that effort were a 98-100+ for the 102 maiden level, but that's not bad considering it was his debut. Improvement was expected the next time and he did improve to a 103-103-103 when stretched out to a mile on turf, which was only good for 4th place beaten 2 lengths in an allowance race similar to today. Off that allowance effort they made a confident (a little too confident) jump to the Grade 2 Swaps stakes. BEAR IN THE WOODS ran OK considering it was his first try on dirt, first try at 1-1/8 miles and the fact he was facing a very talented Rock Hard Ten who posted an outrageously fast interior split of 22 and 4/5 seconds between the slowish half mile and the 3/4 mile mark. BEAR IN THE WOODS held his own during the interior and was moving better through much of the race than the running line suggests.
Blinkers are being added to BEAR IN THE WOODS today and I'm glad because from watching his races on video he makes menacing middle moves and then seems to lose his focus late in the race. Craig Dollase clicks with 25% wins when adding blinkers and I don't think they are being added to enhance the early speed of BEAR as much as they are there to keep his mind on business for the entire race.
The funny thing here is that Tyler Baze and Corey Nakatani are hooked up in a big-time duel for the jockey title and are 1 win apart going into today. Tyler rode BEAR IN THE WOODS last time but is riding an Argentinian import POLEMICO today so it looks like Tyler is choosing to get off BEAR IN THE WOODS in favor of POLEMICO. However, don't read too much into that type of switch because the important thing to note is that Nakatani is always going to be the first call of Craig Dollase because he is Dollase's brother in law. Last time Tyler rode BEAR IN THE WOODS only because Corey had the chance of riding the 3/5 standout Rock Hard Ten in the Grade 2 race. I'm sure his brother in law understood why he wanted to ride Rock Hard that day that day rather than the unproven BEAR IN THE WOODS. But now BEAR is back in the allowance ranks and Corey is the "go to" guy for Dollase and I'm thinking that Dollase won't mind giving his brother in law a live mount on the final day of the meet to help him win the riding title. There, how's that for a jockey switch?
I do think that MAJOR SUCCESS is a vulnerable favorite today and when I saw 2-1 on him it was a big reason to play this race. The colt comes out of the Bobby Frankel barn and was an impressive winner going long at Hollywood Park. However, the race was as a 2 year old back in November. His figures weren't bad -- (103-103-100) for the 99 2 year old maiden level so they were actually a little above par. But the colt is making his first start in 10 months and is also by Mazel Trick. There's still limited data out there, but I haven't been impressed with the ability for many of the Mazel Trick offspring to route effectively at a high level. I know this guy has talent and is in the hands of a fantastic trainer but I am confident that a sharper BEAR IN THE WOODS will beat this horse today. MAJOR SUCCESS will be watched and possibly played in a future spot.
LISTEN INDY (7-2) is the main choice to pair up with BEAR IN THE WOODS. INDY loves Del Mar (his only win and only 2nd place finishes have been at this track) and he's coming off a solid 101-102-105 at this same level. That effort equals the par for this level which would make him tough to beat. He's from the powerful Richard Mandella barn and is a son of A.P. Indy, but this guy is possibly the laziest horse on the grounds. He's flashed a 105 figure a couple of times but still has not cleared the N1X allowance level in 8 tries. He's been a disappointment to me and I'm sure he's been disappointment to his trainer. I do think he's in line for another good effor today which should easily be good enough for a top 2 finish but he just doesn't have that killer instinct so is best used as a backup quinella play.
BEAR IN THE WOODS is the final spot play win bet of the meet. We'll also key him in a main quinella to LISTEN INDY and a smaller quinella to MAJOR SUCCESS. Good luck and we'll see you back again after at Santa Anita/Oak Tree!
Comment