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DEL MAR -- Race #4 -- PRECIS (#2)
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The 4th race is a Maiden Special Weight one mile event for three year olds amd upward. The par for this level is a 102. Based on the speed figures report, this race looks a bit weak on paper. Many in this race will have to visit "maiden claiming land" if they ever want to experience the thrill of victory. The morning line favorite SUNSHINENBEER (7-2) has already lost to maiden claimers which makes him very vulnerable at this level.
Since there does not appear to be any monsters in this race, I will go shopping for value with some upside potential. I believe that PRECIS (6-1) could still be capable of winning at this level. PRECIS has only sprinted twice at 6 1/2 and 7 furlongs. For his debut effort, PRECIS earned figures of 94-93+ against winning figs of 98-105+ for the 102 level. PRECIS then posted figures of 97-95+ while finishing 3rd to Patriot's Pass who earned a solid 97-103. Both those sprint races had "upward sloping" figures as far as pace and final figures are concerned. Today's race has many runners with better pace than final figures which means they tend to "downward slope". I feel that PRECIS should be able to stalk the front runners and push by once the real running starts. PRECIS will need to hold off the closers at that point.
If PRECIS runs the type of race I belive he's capable of, this could be a race for second. Trainer Eoin Harty does very well with freshened horses and those stretching out in distance. Harty hits at about 30% in each category. PRECIS has the route breeding top and bottom to love the one mile distance. I will use PRECIS as my straight wager for today's spot play. My exotic wagers will include RICHOCHET (6-1), TURKISH CAVALRY (8-1) and GRAY BLACK N WHITE (10-1) in a very wide open betting race. Good luck!
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The 4th race is a Maiden Special Weight one mile event for three year olds amd upward. The par for this level is a 102. Based on the speed figures report, this race looks a bit weak on paper. Many in this race will have to visit "maiden claiming land" if they ever want to experience the thrill of victory. The morning line favorite SUNSHINENBEER (7-2) has already lost to maiden claimers which makes him very vulnerable at this level.
Since there does not appear to be any monsters in this race, I will go shopping for value with some upside potential. I believe that PRECIS (6-1) could still be capable of winning at this level. PRECIS has only sprinted twice at 6 1/2 and 7 furlongs. For his debut effort, PRECIS earned figures of 94-93+ against winning figs of 98-105+ for the 102 level. PRECIS then posted figures of 97-95+ while finishing 3rd to Patriot's Pass who earned a solid 97-103. Both those sprint races had "upward sloping" figures as far as pace and final figures are concerned. Today's race has many runners with better pace than final figures which means they tend to "downward slope". I feel that PRECIS should be able to stalk the front runners and push by once the real running starts. PRECIS will need to hold off the closers at that point.
If PRECIS runs the type of race I belive he's capable of, this could be a race for second. Trainer Eoin Harty does very well with freshened horses and those stretching out in distance. Harty hits at about 30% in each category. PRECIS has the route breeding top and bottom to love the one mile distance. I will use PRECIS as my straight wager for today's spot play. My exotic wagers will include RICHOCHET (6-1), TURKISH CAVALRY (8-1) and GRAY BLACK N WHITE (10-1) in a very wide open betting race. Good luck!
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