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YTD: -$180 (based on $10 to win and place) after a disaster on Wednesday
Saratoga Race 5 Play #2 Willy o'the Valley
Horse has never been off the board in six lifetime starts. Two wins but loss last out was to Top Shoter, who ran a monster race and came back to win a stakes. Stays at seven furlong distance. Price may be reasonable with a Frankel horse in here and a Pletcher graded stakes winner coming in off a one year layoff. Stalking style ideal for this distance. Prado rides for a trainer who normally is awesome at Saratoga but has been quiet this year.
Saratoga Race 11 Gr. I Travers Play #6 The Cliff's Edge
The Travers is my favorite race of the year and I've had tremendous success with it over the years. It is usually won by trainers who have been pointing specifically for it. Trainer Nick Zito is obsessed with winning today as the New York based Zito has never won it despite his always strong crop of three year olds. This horse was given a perfect prep last out in the Jim Dandy and closed well to finish second to Purge, who will be overbet today and can't get the 1 1/4 mile distance. Ditto for Lion Heart. The biggest problem is Zito has two other horses in the seven horse field, Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone, and rapidly improving Sir Shackleton. Both have a shot as does Eddington. The Cliff's Edge won the Grade I Blue Grass at Keeneland before clunking in the Kentucky Derby. Today's hot pace will suit him perfectly. I planned on making this horse my only triple play of the year but: a)I'm cold right now, and b) the possibility of a wet track could screw him up and bolster the chances of horses closer to the pace. Nonetheless, this is a strong play I highly recommend.
Del Mar Race 8 Gr. I Del Mar Debutante Play entry #1 Proposed and #1A Sweet Catomine
This play is good ONLY if Proposed runs. The premiere two year old race of the Del Mar meeting and my pick is a maiden! Proposed's only career race came in a California-bred stakes and he almost won, finishing third with a troubled trip. Trainer Julio Canani is notorious for not winning first out so his decision to enter this horse in a stakes in its career debut spoke volumes. He took heavy betting action that day. Canani hits at a shocking 53 percent rate with horses making their second start. Sweet Catomine is also a maiden, finishing second in his career debut. His presence as part of the Canani entry is a bonus but the monster here is Proposed, a half sister to Silent Sighs, another Canani trainee who was one of the favorites in this year's Kentucky Oaks before being injured. We may actually get 3-1 on this horse.
Opinion only on the $1,000,000 guaranteed pick four at Saratoga encompassing the four stakes races:
Play #2 with 1, 2, 6, 10 with 1, 4, 5, 6, 8 with 6.
That's a $20 bet based on a $1 base wager.
Saratoga Race 5 Play #2 Willy o'the Valley
Horse has never been off the board in six lifetime starts. Two wins but loss last out was to Top Shoter, who ran a monster race and came back to win a stakes. Stays at seven furlong distance. Price may be reasonable with a Frankel horse in here and a Pletcher graded stakes winner coming in off a one year layoff. Stalking style ideal for this distance. Prado rides for a trainer who normally is awesome at Saratoga but has been quiet this year.
Saratoga Race 11 Gr. I Travers Play #6 The Cliff's Edge
The Travers is my favorite race of the year and I've had tremendous success with it over the years. It is usually won by trainers who have been pointing specifically for it. Trainer Nick Zito is obsessed with winning today as the New York based Zito has never won it despite his always strong crop of three year olds. This horse was given a perfect prep last out in the Jim Dandy and closed well to finish second to Purge, who will be overbet today and can't get the 1 1/4 mile distance. Ditto for Lion Heart. The biggest problem is Zito has two other horses in the seven horse field, Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone, and rapidly improving Sir Shackleton. Both have a shot as does Eddington. The Cliff's Edge won the Grade I Blue Grass at Keeneland before clunking in the Kentucky Derby. Today's hot pace will suit him perfectly. I planned on making this horse my only triple play of the year but: a)I'm cold right now, and b) the possibility of a wet track could screw him up and bolster the chances of horses closer to the pace. Nonetheless, this is a strong play I highly recommend.
Del Mar Race 8 Gr. I Del Mar Debutante Play entry #1 Proposed and #1A Sweet Catomine
This play is good ONLY if Proposed runs. The premiere two year old race of the Del Mar meeting and my pick is a maiden! Proposed's only career race came in a California-bred stakes and he almost won, finishing third with a troubled trip. Trainer Julio Canani is notorious for not winning first out so his decision to enter this horse in a stakes in its career debut spoke volumes. He took heavy betting action that day. Canani hits at a shocking 53 percent rate with horses making their second start. Sweet Catomine is also a maiden, finishing second in his career debut. His presence as part of the Canani entry is a bonus but the monster here is Proposed, a half sister to Silent Sighs, another Canani trainee who was one of the favorites in this year's Kentucky Oaks before being injured. We may actually get 3-1 on this horse.
Opinion only on the $1,000,000 guaranteed pick four at Saratoga encompassing the four stakes races:
Play #2 with 1, 2, 6, 10 with 1, 4, 5, 6, 8 with 6.
That's a $20 bet based on a $1 base wager.
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