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DEL MAR -- Race #2 -- DANCE OF THE YEAR (#5)
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The 2nd race today is a $32,000 claiming race at a mile for 3 year old fillies. Par is a 99. A quick look at the recent ratings in this race shows that most of the fillies have never flirted with the 99 par at any distance beyond a sprint. The 2 best recent performances seem to be the maiden sprint win of NAUVOO (97-99) and the last route race of DANCE OF THE YEAR (104-96-91+). DANCE OF THE YEAR ran 2nd to an 8 length winner in that last race and I typically give a few points of extra credit when the winner blows a race open by that much. In this case I figured her at a 96 pace figure and bonused the final figure up to 96 as well. Paired up with the fact that she was chasing a 45 second opening half mile and earned a 104 opening pace figure and that effort was very, very solid. Today she slips down from $40,000 to $32,000 and faces the easiest field of her career. She was good enough to beat Cal-bred straight maidens in her first career start and then faced Cal-bred stakes fillies in her next couple of starts, including fillies like House of Fortune. Mike Mitchell continues to send out live horses and this will be the 3rd race off the layoff for her. Anything close to the effort of the last race at $40,000 should make her tough to beat. She is the spot play.
Even though there are only 6 horses in this race, the pace of this race could be pretty quick early because 3 of the entrants have shown the ability to crack :22 seconds flat for their opening quarter mile in sprints (LUNGE, NAUVOO, HIDDEN BEAUTY). None of them have a ton of "stick" late, but I like NAUVOO best of that group. Her last sprint figures of 97-99 (win) and a 102-91 (fade against starter allowance horses) may have her all legged up for a nice try in her first try around two turns. She faded to 9th place last time but you can see a reason for that with the large 102 pace figure and the fact that she dueled early in an 11 horse field so she should be forgiven. I see NAUVOO controlling this race until the late stages when Corey Nakatani and DANCE OF THE YEAR come calling to make a good race of it.
DANCE OF THE YEAR is the spot play win bet today and key to exotics. I will key her to NAUVOO for the reasons mentioned above. Good luck.
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The 2nd race today is a $32,000 claiming race at a mile for 3 year old fillies. Par is a 99. A quick look at the recent ratings in this race shows that most of the fillies have never flirted with the 99 par at any distance beyond a sprint. The 2 best recent performances seem to be the maiden sprint win of NAUVOO (97-99) and the last route race of DANCE OF THE YEAR (104-96-91+). DANCE OF THE YEAR ran 2nd to an 8 length winner in that last race and I typically give a few points of extra credit when the winner blows a race open by that much. In this case I figured her at a 96 pace figure and bonused the final figure up to 96 as well. Paired up with the fact that she was chasing a 45 second opening half mile and earned a 104 opening pace figure and that effort was very, very solid. Today she slips down from $40,000 to $32,000 and faces the easiest field of her career. She was good enough to beat Cal-bred straight maidens in her first career start and then faced Cal-bred stakes fillies in her next couple of starts, including fillies like House of Fortune. Mike Mitchell continues to send out live horses and this will be the 3rd race off the layoff for her. Anything close to the effort of the last race at $40,000 should make her tough to beat. She is the spot play.
Even though there are only 6 horses in this race, the pace of this race could be pretty quick early because 3 of the entrants have shown the ability to crack :22 seconds flat for their opening quarter mile in sprints (LUNGE, NAUVOO, HIDDEN BEAUTY). None of them have a ton of "stick" late, but I like NAUVOO best of that group. Her last sprint figures of 97-99 (win) and a 102-91 (fade against starter allowance horses) may have her all legged up for a nice try in her first try around two turns. She faded to 9th place last time but you can see a reason for that with the large 102 pace figure and the fact that she dueled early in an 11 horse field so she should be forgiven. I see NAUVOO controlling this race until the late stages when Corey Nakatani and DANCE OF THE YEAR come calling to make a good race of it.
DANCE OF THE YEAR is the spot play win bet today and key to exotics. I will key her to NAUVOO for the reasons mentioned above. Good luck.