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DEL MAR -- Race #1 -- SENFULLY EASY (#1)
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The 1st race is a $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies at 5-1/2 furlongs. Par is a 97. Jack Carava claimed 2 fillies from the $10,000 sprint on July 24th won by SENFULLY EASY. Now he wheels both of his new claims (SENFULLY EASY and SHES A FREEBIE) back at this same level and he looks like he'll have a stranglehold on the win and probably even the exacta. SENFULLY EASY is hard to ignore in here, she's won 5 of her 8 starts in 2004 and has the best recent sprint figures of 97-96+, 96-93 and 94-96 in her last 3 races. Martin Pedroza is not one of my favorite jockeys, but he is a main go-to guy of Jack Carava and I do like Carava a lot so I often have to live with his choice of jockey. Expect SENFULLY EASY to be a little closer to the pace today and then fire it home for the win. She exits the best races (2nd place finisher behind her last time came back to win on Aug. 8th and the 2nd place finisher from the race before that came back to win at the $20,000 level 2 weeks ago).
SHES A FREEBIE has better early speed than the spot play but has been having trouble finding the finish line lately. She is exiting the same last 2 starts as SENFULLY EASY and both times was more involved in a fast early pace which took its toll on her so she faded bad afterward. The last 2 fade jobs were a 96-79+ and a 104-88 but she earned a 100-97 three back so she does have the ability to finish with a par figure for this level if she can snap back to a good one. I think at 5-1/2 furlongs at today's level against a fairly weak field that she'll snap back enough to be a win threat and has a good chance at holding for the exacta.
LA BELLA earned a 91-94 in her last race which was her first sprint in a while. She was helped by the longer 6-1/2 furlong distance last time and she also benefitted from the crazy 103 pace posted by the leaders which flatters a late closer. I think she'll have a tougher time today since she's shortening up to 5-1/2 furlongs and won't be helped out as much by the fast early/slow late scenario like she had last time.
Today is a poor collection of races so I'm hitting the likely finish in the 1st race. SENFULLY EASY is the spot play and key to the race with SHES A FREEBIE looking like a solid candidate to set the early pace and still hold in there with SENFULLY EASY for a top 2 finish. Good luck.
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The 1st race is a $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies at 5-1/2 furlongs. Par is a 97. Jack Carava claimed 2 fillies from the $10,000 sprint on July 24th won by SENFULLY EASY. Now he wheels both of his new claims (SENFULLY EASY and SHES A FREEBIE) back at this same level and he looks like he'll have a stranglehold on the win and probably even the exacta. SENFULLY EASY is hard to ignore in here, she's won 5 of her 8 starts in 2004 and has the best recent sprint figures of 97-96+, 96-93 and 94-96 in her last 3 races. Martin Pedroza is not one of my favorite jockeys, but he is a main go-to guy of Jack Carava and I do like Carava a lot so I often have to live with his choice of jockey. Expect SENFULLY EASY to be a little closer to the pace today and then fire it home for the win. She exits the best races (2nd place finisher behind her last time came back to win on Aug. 8th and the 2nd place finisher from the race before that came back to win at the $20,000 level 2 weeks ago).
SHES A FREEBIE has better early speed than the spot play but has been having trouble finding the finish line lately. She is exiting the same last 2 starts as SENFULLY EASY and both times was more involved in a fast early pace which took its toll on her so she faded bad afterward. The last 2 fade jobs were a 96-79+ and a 104-88 but she earned a 100-97 three back so she does have the ability to finish with a par figure for this level if she can snap back to a good one. I think at 5-1/2 furlongs at today's level against a fairly weak field that she'll snap back enough to be a win threat and has a good chance at holding for the exacta.
LA BELLA earned a 91-94 in her last race which was her first sprint in a while. She was helped by the longer 6-1/2 furlong distance last time and she also benefitted from the crazy 103 pace posted by the leaders which flatters a late closer. I think she'll have a tougher time today since she's shortening up to 5-1/2 furlongs and won't be helped out as much by the fast early/slow late scenario like she had last time.
Today is a poor collection of races so I'm hitting the likely finish in the 1st race. SENFULLY EASY is the spot play and key to the race with SHES A FREEBIE looking like a solid candidate to set the early pace and still hold in there with SENFULLY EASY for a top 2 finish. Good luck.
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