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Sunday's Best Bets

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  • Sunday's Best Bets

    YTD: -$143.50

    Saratoga Race 7 Play #4 Lightning Stripes
    Closer fits nicely in a field in which no horse is coming in in great form, which is unusual for a $70,000 claimer. Won at this 1 1/8 mile distance earlier this year at Gulfstream. Strong 14-for-33 career record win or place. Trainer has been shipping in live horses. May get 5-1 on a play based on value, not overwhelmingly likelihood of winning.

    Saratoga Race 9 West Point Handicap Play #5 Irish Colonial
    Pick is good for TURF OR DIRT. Meets New York breds after just missing against much tougher in a Grade III stakes 17 day ago. Tactical speed to get good position. decent post position. Solid workout since last race. Lone negative is presence of over the hill jockey Samyn who has won only three percent of his races in 2004. Still, this horse is the best in here.

    Arlington Race 7 Play #7 Auburn Forever
    Turns back to six furlongs after flattening out twice in a row at a mile. 5-for-5 in the money. Meets very soft field of fellow Illinois breds. Trainer excels at route-to-sprint move.

    Arlington Race 9 Play #6 Blackjack Canyon
    Drops in price from $20,000 claimers to $10,000. Last race was at Churchill Downs, meaning competition was even tougher. Trainer an amazing 27-for-46 win or place at Arlington. While normally a closer, this horse has the tactical speed to stay close in a paceless race. Draws outside post position, which is good because the real is very dead at Arlington.

    Del Mar Race 9 Play #9 Bear In The Woods
    Returns to allowance company after finishing dead last in Grade II Swaps last out. But that was against Rock Hard Ten and there's nothing like him in this race. Post position not the best and some may worry that leading rider Tyler Baze is off the horse. But Corey Nakatani is the trainer's brother in law and gets his prime mounts. Nakatani is also riding very well right now and a good ride is needed because of the post position. Blinkers on and this trainer is outstanding with that move.

    All bets rated at $10 to win and place. Caveat: I've been very cool with these picks the last two weeks but hope for a big
    bounceback today.

  • #2
    Recap

    A very good day but could have been even better with an inch here and a foot there. At Saratoga, Lightning Stripes won at 9-2, paying $11 to win and $4.70 to place. Irish Colonial, led the entire stretch but was outfinished and missed the win by a half length and second by a head, finishing a tough third thanks to a dull ride by ancient Jean Luc-Samyn. Auburn Forever missed by just a half-length at Arlington, paying $3.40 to place. Blackjack Canyon won at odds of 3-2, paying $5.00 to win and $3.20 to place. The horse at Del Mar was scratched.
    Bottom line: 4 picks, 2 winners, one second and one third. I'm back.

    Wagered: $80 (based on $10 to win and place, as usual)
    Cashed: $136.50

    Profit: $56.50

    YTD: -$87.00

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