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DEL MAR -- Race #4 -- DEWEY'S TRICK (#1)
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The 4th race is a first level allowance sprint for fillies and mares at 5 furlong turfs on the turf. Par is a 103. I'm not buying the 2-1 morning line favorite PLATINUM PRINCESS. She is showing the figure pattern of big race off the 2 to 3 year old layoff (her trainer Bonde is good with layoffs) and then has gotten progressively less impressive with each consecutive start. She came off a 10 month layoff in May with a 107-103+ figure at this 103 level and ran a close 2nd. Next time out she earned another close 2nd with a 105-101+ figure against a much weaker field at the same 103 level. When she didn't win against that field I began to wonder if she is one of those horses who likes to just finish "close" to the winner without actually being a threat to win.
Her most recent figure was a 108-100+ (slight drop on the final figure yet again). Last time she took the blinkers off and now puts them back on. I doubt that will shake her up enough to win, it's usually the "off" move that triggers the big effort for blinkers horses. She's already been unable to beat some mediocre allowance fields and now tries the turf which is a completely new surface so she looks like a vulnerable favorite today. She is consistent in getting up near a solid early pace, but she seems to want to just put in enough effort to lose a close finish. Perfect for the exacta/quinella but it makes me want to shop around elsewhere for a win candidate.
I liked DEWEY'S TRICK (10-1) and AMERICAN ANTHEM (3-1) best. Both are coming off a recent turf sprint effort of 103 which hit hard at this 103 level. DEWEY'S TRICK won her very first start with a sharp 100-99+ at the 100 maiden level and then followed it up with a 100-103 in a strong allowance race. I liked the improvement and the good effort the 2nd time out. Last time she got caught battling on a very fast 114-112 early pace at 1-1/16 miles on grass (the winning final figure was also WAY above par for the level). Daughters of Mazel Trick are going to be best sprinting anyway so she has distance limitations, but her best chance was severely compromised by the wicked early pace battle last time. She ended up getting 7th beaten 10 in that race but the effort should not be used to evaluate her chances today and she should be set for another big effort now what she's back to sprinting. 10-1 seems very generous for a filly with a par figure in her last sprint. Hall of famer Mike Smith hops aboard today which is a big upgrade from Kerwin John who rode her in the first 2 turf sprints. DEWEY'S TRICK gets the nod as spot play.
AMERICAN ANTHEM turned into a turf monster when switched from dirt to grass last season. Her very first effort over the grass back in May 2003 led to a lifetime best figure of 96-103 and she actually beat winners that day as a maiden. She followed it up with a 93-101+ before going off form in a stakes sprint. She took a layoff from August 2003 to the opening week here at Del Mar and earned a new lifetime best figure of 102-103 in the comeback race. She stalked a par 103 pace and then kicked by that horse while getting run down at the wire by a closer. If she bounces from the big effort off the long layoff then she may not do well here but if she runs one of her consistent efforts then she should be right there at the wire.
DEWEY'S TRICK is the spot play win bet today and key to exotics. I think I've mentioned the top 3 contenders in here so I will key DEWEY'S TRICK to AMERICAN ANTHEM and PLATINUM PRINCESS for the exotics. Good luck.
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The 4th race is a first level allowance sprint for fillies and mares at 5 furlong turfs on the turf. Par is a 103. I'm not buying the 2-1 morning line favorite PLATINUM PRINCESS. She is showing the figure pattern of big race off the 2 to 3 year old layoff (her trainer Bonde is good with layoffs) and then has gotten progressively less impressive with each consecutive start. She came off a 10 month layoff in May with a 107-103+ figure at this 103 level and ran a close 2nd. Next time out she earned another close 2nd with a 105-101+ figure against a much weaker field at the same 103 level. When she didn't win against that field I began to wonder if she is one of those horses who likes to just finish "close" to the winner without actually being a threat to win.
Her most recent figure was a 108-100+ (slight drop on the final figure yet again). Last time she took the blinkers off and now puts them back on. I doubt that will shake her up enough to win, it's usually the "off" move that triggers the big effort for blinkers horses. She's already been unable to beat some mediocre allowance fields and now tries the turf which is a completely new surface so she looks like a vulnerable favorite today. She is consistent in getting up near a solid early pace, but she seems to want to just put in enough effort to lose a close finish. Perfect for the exacta/quinella but it makes me want to shop around elsewhere for a win candidate.
I liked DEWEY'S TRICK (10-1) and AMERICAN ANTHEM (3-1) best. Both are coming off a recent turf sprint effort of 103 which hit hard at this 103 level. DEWEY'S TRICK won her very first start with a sharp 100-99+ at the 100 maiden level and then followed it up with a 100-103 in a strong allowance race. I liked the improvement and the good effort the 2nd time out. Last time she got caught battling on a very fast 114-112 early pace at 1-1/16 miles on grass (the winning final figure was also WAY above par for the level). Daughters of Mazel Trick are going to be best sprinting anyway so she has distance limitations, but her best chance was severely compromised by the wicked early pace battle last time. She ended up getting 7th beaten 10 in that race but the effort should not be used to evaluate her chances today and she should be set for another big effort now what she's back to sprinting. 10-1 seems very generous for a filly with a par figure in her last sprint. Hall of famer Mike Smith hops aboard today which is a big upgrade from Kerwin John who rode her in the first 2 turf sprints. DEWEY'S TRICK gets the nod as spot play.
AMERICAN ANTHEM turned into a turf monster when switched from dirt to grass last season. Her very first effort over the grass back in May 2003 led to a lifetime best figure of 96-103 and she actually beat winners that day as a maiden. She followed it up with a 93-101+ before going off form in a stakes sprint. She took a layoff from August 2003 to the opening week here at Del Mar and earned a new lifetime best figure of 102-103 in the comeback race. She stalked a par 103 pace and then kicked by that horse while getting run down at the wire by a closer. If she bounces from the big effort off the long layoff then she may not do well here but if she runs one of her consistent efforts then she should be right there at the wire.
DEWEY'S TRICK is the spot play win bet today and key to exotics. I think I've mentioned the top 3 contenders in here so I will key DEWEY'S TRICK to AMERICAN ANTHEM and PLATINUM PRINCESS for the exotics. Good luck.
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