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DEL MAR -- Race #1 -- CIRCLE Z (#4)
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Today's first race is a $12,500 claiming sprint for California bred fillies and mares. The par is a 97. The winning figures for this race will more than likely fall well short of today's par. When the 8-5 morning line favorite only has a career best of 92-94+, it's a pretty safe bet that this is a rather weak race. Since CUCA is no sure thing with a final figure more than two lengths slower than par, let's take on the roll of "longshot seeker" for today's opener.
Longshots tend to strike when races come up very weak on figures. Today's spot play also only has a career best final figure of 94. The difference is CIRCLE Z is listed at 8-1 on the morning line. CIRCLE Z's last three set of figures as a three year old were 88-93+, 84-94 and an 80-93+ to end her 2003 campaign. CIRCLE Z was claimed for $8,000 in her final race and has been freshened for her 2004 debut. The trainer must feel good about his chances with CIRCLE Z as he brings her back at the $12,500 level. I don't expect CIRCLE Z to post a final figure much better than a 94 today. I do believe that a winning figure of 94 has a good chance in this sub par event.
I will focus on a straight wager with CIRCLE Z and use the favorite CUCA and SIBERIAN SNOW (6-1) to round out the exotics. During the early stages, you'll find CIRCLE Z far far off the pace. But if the early pace should weaken late, look for CIRCLE Z to be mowing them down near the finish. Good luck!
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Today's first race is a $12,500 claiming sprint for California bred fillies and mares. The par is a 97. The winning figures for this race will more than likely fall well short of today's par. When the 8-5 morning line favorite only has a career best of 92-94+, it's a pretty safe bet that this is a rather weak race. Since CUCA is no sure thing with a final figure more than two lengths slower than par, let's take on the roll of "longshot seeker" for today's opener.
Longshots tend to strike when races come up very weak on figures. Today's spot play also only has a career best final figure of 94. The difference is CIRCLE Z is listed at 8-1 on the morning line. CIRCLE Z's last three set of figures as a three year old were 88-93+, 84-94 and an 80-93+ to end her 2003 campaign. CIRCLE Z was claimed for $8,000 in her final race and has been freshened for her 2004 debut. The trainer must feel good about his chances with CIRCLE Z as he brings her back at the $12,500 level. I don't expect CIRCLE Z to post a final figure much better than a 94 today. I do believe that a winning figure of 94 has a good chance in this sub par event.
I will focus on a straight wager with CIRCLE Z and use the favorite CUCA and SIBERIAN SNOW (6-1) to round out the exotics. During the early stages, you'll find CIRCLE Z far far off the pace. But if the early pace should weaken late, look for CIRCLE Z to be mowing them down near the finish. Good luck!