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DEL MAR -- Race #3 -- QUATRAIN (#1)
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The 3rd race is a 1st level allowance at 1-1/16 miles on turf for fillies. Par is a 102. QUATRAIN (7-2) jumps right off the page as today's spot play. She broke her maiden for John Sadler way back in August 2002 here at Del Mar going a mile on the turf. Her figures way back then were 99-104-102+ for the 99 maiden level so even then she showed that she was fast enough to clear the maiden ranks and jump to this 102 allowance level.
There must have been a serious physical problem because she took a year and a half off after that race and didn't return to the races until a sprint prep at Hollywood Park in April. She sprinted a 100-99+ that day but ignore the race since it was just a prep and at the wrong distance/surface. When she was wheeled back on the turf and stretched out QUATRAIN was ready to roll. She stalked a sprinter for 1/2 mile before making a big mid-race move and opening up clear ground as the field swung for home. She ran on well down the stretch but was nipped at the wire by an 8-5 Bobby Frankel filly. The figures were HUGE for the level, a 97-109-105+ which is several lengths faster than the N1X allowance level, so QUATRAIN was very unlucky not to have cleared that first level in that race.
However, the next time she ran there was nobody to chase so QUATRAIN had to make her own pace. She set wicked interior fractions and fought on well but lost to another nice foreign-bred filly. QUATRAIN earned another 107-110-105 in the last race which would win 90% of the races at this 102 level and it would take an unforeseen effort from one of the other fillies in here to run with that type of figure. She has the ability to lay close to a fast pace and still finish well which is a huge plus here at Del Mar. Her brutal mid-race move should help crack this race open as they turn for home. She has never been off the board while going long on grass, has a win in her only start here at Del Mar and has a bullet workout since raced. All that means she is a strong play.
I would love to keep the 7-2 morning line (actually the 2nd choice in this race) and there's a large 10 horse field to keep the price OK but I do think she will be bet down to a more reasonable level. We lose regular rider Victor Espinoza to the morning line favorite but that switch has more to do with the fact that Espinoza rides more regularly for the other trainer (Mike Mitchell) anyway and Sadler's main man Tyler Baze jumps aboard today. When jockeys are switching around my advice is to not get caught up in mind-reading the jocks and handicap the horses instead. Most of the time it's the jockey's agent making the decisions on who to ride. The other day I heard a jockey agent say he received a mount from a certain trainer in a golf bet and after hearing that it confirmed the fact that just handicap the horses and don't make too much out of the jockey switches.
The morning line favorite, JEWEL OF THE YEAR, is very vulnerable in here. She beat Cal-bred allowance fillies at 1-1/8 miles on the grass with a 99-102-99+ figure for the 101 level. She then ran a close 2nd at the "open" 102 allowance level with a 90-96-99+. She's a 3 year old filly who's improving but needs a bunch more improvement to handle a filly like QUATRAIN. She's never run worse than 2nd but faced a weak allowance field last time out and today's test is the toughest she's faced yet.
SEEKING THE HEART (9-2) makes a lot of sense as a contender in here. She's from the talented barn of Richard Mandella and is a daughter of Grade 1 turf mare Corrazona. SEEKING THE HEART sprinted once in May (a prep) and then stretched out on turf with an 88-89-97+ in her first grass effort and first effort at a mile. The next time she got up to beat maidens at the wire with a 97-95-100+ for the 99 maiden level. Lightly raced horses who recently broke their maidens are always candidates for more improvement. She'd need a huge jump up to threaten QUATRAIN but SEEKING THE HEART makes sense to include in the minors.
QUATRAIN has a few lengths of advantage here and is the spot play win bet to finally clear this allowance level. year olds SEEKING THE HEART is the strongest candidate to key to QUATRAIN in an exacta or quinella. VOLENTE DEO would be my next choice for a piece of the top 3. Good luck.
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The 3rd race is a 1st level allowance at 1-1/16 miles on turf for fillies. Par is a 102. QUATRAIN (7-2) jumps right off the page as today's spot play. She broke her maiden for John Sadler way back in August 2002 here at Del Mar going a mile on the turf. Her figures way back then were 99-104-102+ for the 99 maiden level so even then she showed that she was fast enough to clear the maiden ranks and jump to this 102 allowance level.
There must have been a serious physical problem because she took a year and a half off after that race and didn't return to the races until a sprint prep at Hollywood Park in April. She sprinted a 100-99+ that day but ignore the race since it was just a prep and at the wrong distance/surface. When she was wheeled back on the turf and stretched out QUATRAIN was ready to roll. She stalked a sprinter for 1/2 mile before making a big mid-race move and opening up clear ground as the field swung for home. She ran on well down the stretch but was nipped at the wire by an 8-5 Bobby Frankel filly. The figures were HUGE for the level, a 97-109-105+ which is several lengths faster than the N1X allowance level, so QUATRAIN was very unlucky not to have cleared that first level in that race.
However, the next time she ran there was nobody to chase so QUATRAIN had to make her own pace. She set wicked interior fractions and fought on well but lost to another nice foreign-bred filly. QUATRAIN earned another 107-110-105 in the last race which would win 90% of the races at this 102 level and it would take an unforeseen effort from one of the other fillies in here to run with that type of figure. She has the ability to lay close to a fast pace and still finish well which is a huge plus here at Del Mar. Her brutal mid-race move should help crack this race open as they turn for home. She has never been off the board while going long on grass, has a win in her only start here at Del Mar and has a bullet workout since raced. All that means she is a strong play.
I would love to keep the 7-2 morning line (actually the 2nd choice in this race) and there's a large 10 horse field to keep the price OK but I do think she will be bet down to a more reasonable level. We lose regular rider Victor Espinoza to the morning line favorite but that switch has more to do with the fact that Espinoza rides more regularly for the other trainer (Mike Mitchell) anyway and Sadler's main man Tyler Baze jumps aboard today. When jockeys are switching around my advice is to not get caught up in mind-reading the jocks and handicap the horses instead. Most of the time it's the jockey's agent making the decisions on who to ride. The other day I heard a jockey agent say he received a mount from a certain trainer in a golf bet and after hearing that it confirmed the fact that just handicap the horses and don't make too much out of the jockey switches.
The morning line favorite, JEWEL OF THE YEAR, is very vulnerable in here. She beat Cal-bred allowance fillies at 1-1/8 miles on the grass with a 99-102-99+ figure for the 101 level. She then ran a close 2nd at the "open" 102 allowance level with a 90-96-99+. She's a 3 year old filly who's improving but needs a bunch more improvement to handle a filly like QUATRAIN. She's never run worse than 2nd but faced a weak allowance field last time out and today's test is the toughest she's faced yet.
SEEKING THE HEART (9-2) makes a lot of sense as a contender in here. She's from the talented barn of Richard Mandella and is a daughter of Grade 1 turf mare Corrazona. SEEKING THE HEART sprinted once in May (a prep) and then stretched out on turf with an 88-89-97+ in her first grass effort and first effort at a mile. The next time she got up to beat maidens at the wire with a 97-95-100+ for the 99 maiden level. Lightly raced horses who recently broke their maidens are always candidates for more improvement. She'd need a huge jump up to threaten QUATRAIN but SEEKING THE HEART makes sense to include in the minors.
QUATRAIN has a few lengths of advantage here and is the spot play win bet to finally clear this allowance level. year olds SEEKING THE HEART is the strongest candidate to key to QUATRAIN in an exacta or quinella. VOLENTE DEO would be my next choice for a piece of the top 3. Good luck.
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