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YTD: -$12.50 (based on $10 to win and place)
I find today's card at Saratoga especially interesting. I have three best bets, two strong opinions and the other four races are so wide open that solid prices can be found.
Saratoga Race 3 Play #1 Extent
Just a five horse field of two year old fillies who have already won once. Extent is a very rare horse---a Bill Mott trainee who won first time out. Mott ALWAYS gives his horses a race before they're ready to fire but this one won impressively. Now, she stretches out---a Mott specialty---and gets first time lasix to boot. Won't be favored because of the presence of a Wayne Lukas horse who ran second in a Grade III stakes last out. But Extent may be a very good horse. She's bred to route, which makes her debut win all the more impressive. Edgar Prado passes them all in the lane.
Saratoga Race 7 Play #6 Save The Profit
Pick is for TURF ONLY. (It hasn't rained in two days---a Saratoga record---so the race should stay on the grass.) I wouldn't normally play a horse that will be odds-on but this one seems to have to fall down to lose. Red hot combo of trainer Pletcher and rider Velazquez. This is a race restricted to New York breds and none of them has run as well as this horse has in its two turf races. Very short price but something weird would have to happen for him to lose.
Saratoga Race 8 Gr. III Lake George stakes Play #4 Venturi
Pick is for TURF ONLY. First start in North America for trainer Bobby Frankel and he is unbelievable in that situation. Won a Group III stakes in Ireland as a two year old. Meets a very nice field of nine other horses but that's good because it will boost our price. First time lasix and Frankel wins at a shocking 45 percent clip with that move. Go-to rider Jerry Bailey is elsewhere but Edgar Prado is riding beautifully the last couple of months. Soft turf likely helps. Lone concern is horse's sprint oriented pedigree but we can't have everything.
OPINIONS ONLY: (also Saratoga)
I almost made #2 Pomeranze in Race 2 a best bet. She drops into a $40,000 claimer after clunking in her first U.S. start for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin who I think is going to have a big Saratoga meet. Ran well enough on dirt in Dubai this spring and was sufficiently well regarded to be entered in the UAE Oaks, although she didn't run well. Meets a very so-so field here. I can't make her a best bet because she hasn't done much---yet.
Also, I like #10 Secret Forest to win a maiden race in the 9th race of the day. She finished second first time out, has been rested six weeks and has outstanding workouts in the interim.
Suggested ticket for the Pick Four which starts with race 6:
2-3-4-8-9 with 6 with 4 with 4-10-11 ($15 for a $1 bet)
I find today's card at Saratoga especially interesting. I have three best bets, two strong opinions and the other four races are so wide open that solid prices can be found.
Saratoga Race 3 Play #1 Extent
Just a five horse field of two year old fillies who have already won once. Extent is a very rare horse---a Bill Mott trainee who won first time out. Mott ALWAYS gives his horses a race before they're ready to fire but this one won impressively. Now, she stretches out---a Mott specialty---and gets first time lasix to boot. Won't be favored because of the presence of a Wayne Lukas horse who ran second in a Grade III stakes last out. But Extent may be a very good horse. She's bred to route, which makes her debut win all the more impressive. Edgar Prado passes them all in the lane.
Saratoga Race 7 Play #6 Save The Profit
Pick is for TURF ONLY. (It hasn't rained in two days---a Saratoga record---so the race should stay on the grass.) I wouldn't normally play a horse that will be odds-on but this one seems to have to fall down to lose. Red hot combo of trainer Pletcher and rider Velazquez. This is a race restricted to New York breds and none of them has run as well as this horse has in its two turf races. Very short price but something weird would have to happen for him to lose.
Saratoga Race 8 Gr. III Lake George stakes Play #4 Venturi
Pick is for TURF ONLY. First start in North America for trainer Bobby Frankel and he is unbelievable in that situation. Won a Group III stakes in Ireland as a two year old. Meets a very nice field of nine other horses but that's good because it will boost our price. First time lasix and Frankel wins at a shocking 45 percent clip with that move. Go-to rider Jerry Bailey is elsewhere but Edgar Prado is riding beautifully the last couple of months. Soft turf likely helps. Lone concern is horse's sprint oriented pedigree but we can't have everything.
OPINIONS ONLY: (also Saratoga)
I almost made #2 Pomeranze in Race 2 a best bet. She drops into a $40,000 claimer after clunking in her first U.S. start for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin who I think is going to have a big Saratoga meet. Ran well enough on dirt in Dubai this spring and was sufficiently well regarded to be entered in the UAE Oaks, although she didn't run well. Meets a very so-so field here. I can't make her a best bet because she hasn't done much---yet.
Also, I like #10 Secret Forest to win a maiden race in the 9th race of the day. She finished second first time out, has been rested six weeks and has outstanding workouts in the interim.
Suggested ticket for the Pick Four which starts with race 6:
2-3-4-8-9 with 6 with 4 with 4-10-11 ($15 for a $1 bet)
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