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DEL MAR -- Race #5 -- LOOKN EAST (#1)
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The 5th race is a $50,000 sprint at 7 furlongs on the dirt. Par is a 107. This race has a lukewarm 3-1 morning line favorite that doesn't really fit at this level and is probably the best betting race on the card today. Try as I might, I kept coming back to LOOKN EAST at 6-1. He's on a classic pattern of huge effort off a layoff followed by a regression in his next start which sets him up for a huge try in today's 3rd start back from the layoff. After a year and a half on the bench, LOOKN EAST returned to run a huge 108-109-107+ effort at 1-1/16 miles on turf for his first start back. Vladimir Cerin obviously had the horse fit and ready because I can't have imagined such a big effort from a horse going two turns off a break of 1-1/2 years. In fact, Cerin jacked the price up a bit from $40,000 to $50,000 for LOOKN EAST's second start back off the layoff. He was very likely to a "bounce" off those huge figures in that 2nd start back and was a vulnerable favorite, but he didn't embarrass himself. Again he pushed a wicked pace at a mile on turf before fading back to 5th beaten only a lenght and a half. Figures for the "bounce" race were 111-109-102+.
Top claiming trainer Jack Carava must have seen something he liked in the earlier comeback race, because he claimed the horse even at the higher $50k price in the last start. LOOKN EAST has trained very sharply for Carava and I think he's found a very nice spot today. The horse has been facing much classier guys on turf in sprints and routes and has fought some hard races with some huge pace figures. For his placement today, I think Carava noticed that LOOKN EAST is 1 for 1 at the 7 furlong distance on dirt, and actually is 3 wins, 2 seconds and 3 thirds in his 10 dirt starts so is just as capable on the dirt. The way he's been pushing the pace going longer and then just fading a bit late made him look like a good candidate for the elongated sprint distance of 7 furlongs. The horse has good early speed, is gritty as they come and if allowed to push a slowish pace for this level (as it looks like today) then he will be slugging it out hard all the way home.
BEYOND BRILLIANT is the lukewarm favorite in here and has won 4 of 7 this year at much easier levels. He won a $50,000 sprint on turf from 2 starts back with figures of 98-104 and that was his best final figure from his last 5 starts. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that he fits a lot better for the $32,000 (105 par) price range and that John Sadler probably overpaid for him when he took him for $50,000 3 starts back. When pitched in against legitimate 108 level horses in his most recent start, BEYOND BRILLIANT ran his usual 103+ figure which was near to the one that he won the $50,000 race with, but in that 108 level he ran an even 4th place. The good news is that today's race came up weak for the 107 level so he might be able to bounce back to a better finish.
THE GRIFF (6-1) is on a pattern to run back to a good effort today. Toss out the one Northern Calif. race from last time out (often a horse's worst effort on their form cycle). If you do that, you are left with 5 consecutive respectable sprint figures of 101-104, 103-104, 102-102, 104-107, 103-105. The best two figures are his most recent sprints, which is a good sign and a repeat of either would get him close at the finish today. Doug O'Neill trains and Corey Nakatani rides so you know he's coming from hot connections and should be given every opportunity for a big effort. THE GRIFF is often content to settle for the minor awards and is a perfect guy to use in the exotics.
LOOKN EAST is in a great spot for a sprint win today and is the spot play at a good price. The only negatives are the rail post position which means he will probably be gunned a little early in order to get up into the race, but he is a fighter who should tough it out and finish well. A spot play win bet is a good way to go. In this case (a wide open race with a nice-priced win play) you could do well to back it up with a place bet on LOOKN EAST and just leave it at that, or if you want to do a few quinellas instead of a place bet to go for a higher payoff you could key LOOKN EAST to BEYOND BRILLIANT, THE GRIFF, and DAUPHIN. Good luck.
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The 5th race is a $50,000 sprint at 7 furlongs on the dirt. Par is a 107. This race has a lukewarm 3-1 morning line favorite that doesn't really fit at this level and is probably the best betting race on the card today. Try as I might, I kept coming back to LOOKN EAST at 6-1. He's on a classic pattern of huge effort off a layoff followed by a regression in his next start which sets him up for a huge try in today's 3rd start back from the layoff. After a year and a half on the bench, LOOKN EAST returned to run a huge 108-109-107+ effort at 1-1/16 miles on turf for his first start back. Vladimir Cerin obviously had the horse fit and ready because I can't have imagined such a big effort from a horse going two turns off a break of 1-1/2 years. In fact, Cerin jacked the price up a bit from $40,000 to $50,000 for LOOKN EAST's second start back off the layoff. He was very likely to a "bounce" off those huge figures in that 2nd start back and was a vulnerable favorite, but he didn't embarrass himself. Again he pushed a wicked pace at a mile on turf before fading back to 5th beaten only a lenght and a half. Figures for the "bounce" race were 111-109-102+.
Top claiming trainer Jack Carava must have seen something he liked in the earlier comeback race, because he claimed the horse even at the higher $50k price in the last start. LOOKN EAST has trained very sharply for Carava and I think he's found a very nice spot today. The horse has been facing much classier guys on turf in sprints and routes and has fought some hard races with some huge pace figures. For his placement today, I think Carava noticed that LOOKN EAST is 1 for 1 at the 7 furlong distance on dirt, and actually is 3 wins, 2 seconds and 3 thirds in his 10 dirt starts so is just as capable on the dirt. The way he's been pushing the pace going longer and then just fading a bit late made him look like a good candidate for the elongated sprint distance of 7 furlongs. The horse has good early speed, is gritty as they come and if allowed to push a slowish pace for this level (as it looks like today) then he will be slugging it out hard all the way home.
BEYOND BRILLIANT is the lukewarm favorite in here and has won 4 of 7 this year at much easier levels. He won a $50,000 sprint on turf from 2 starts back with figures of 98-104 and that was his best final figure from his last 5 starts. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that he fits a lot better for the $32,000 (105 par) price range and that John Sadler probably overpaid for him when he took him for $50,000 3 starts back. When pitched in against legitimate 108 level horses in his most recent start, BEYOND BRILLIANT ran his usual 103+ figure which was near to the one that he won the $50,000 race with, but in that 108 level he ran an even 4th place. The good news is that today's race came up weak for the 107 level so he might be able to bounce back to a better finish.
THE GRIFF (6-1) is on a pattern to run back to a good effort today. Toss out the one Northern Calif. race from last time out (often a horse's worst effort on their form cycle). If you do that, you are left with 5 consecutive respectable sprint figures of 101-104, 103-104, 102-102, 104-107, 103-105. The best two figures are his most recent sprints, which is a good sign and a repeat of either would get him close at the finish today. Doug O'Neill trains and Corey Nakatani rides so you know he's coming from hot connections and should be given every opportunity for a big effort. THE GRIFF is often content to settle for the minor awards and is a perfect guy to use in the exotics.
LOOKN EAST is in a great spot for a sprint win today and is the spot play at a good price. The only negatives are the rail post position which means he will probably be gunned a little early in order to get up into the race, but he is a fighter who should tough it out and finish well. A spot play win bet is a good way to go. In this case (a wide open race with a nice-priced win play) you could do well to back it up with a place bet on LOOKN EAST and just leave it at that, or if you want to do a few quinellas instead of a place bet to go for a higher payoff you could key LOOKN EAST to BEYOND BRILLIANT, THE GRIFF, and DAUPHIN. Good luck.
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