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DEL MAR -- Race #4 -- DEVIL BADGETT (#6)
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Today's 4th race is a turf route for California breds racing at the allowance N1x level. Par is a 104. We always mention the race conditions before we get into the analysis to help focus our handicapping and narrow our list of contenders. This race is a good example of why that's important. The 5-2 morning line favorite is TALK THE WALK. This colt cleared his starter allowance conditions over Hollywood Park's main track with figures of 101-102-105. Even though TALK THE WALK earned a final figure one full length better than today's par, he has never raced over the turf. I am not comfortable taking low odds on any horse switching surfaces for the very first time. TALK THE WALK may not be able produce a par or better figure over Del Mar's turf course.
Today's spot play is obviously a much better horse over the grass. DEVIL BADGETT (7-2) has three turf races we can look at over his last ten races. On February 7th of this year, DEVIL BADGETT earned turf figures of 109-104-101+ while still in the Donald Warren barn. On April 16th, new trainer Jack Carava moved DEVIL BADGETT back to the turf to face open $40,000 claimers. The DEVIL's winning turf figures came back 93-103-106+ for the 106 level. Most recently DEVIL BADGETT earned turf figures of 92-99-103+ for a Hollywood Park turf route that looked like a prep race for today. I expect to see DEVIL BADGETT fire another top effort as the hot riding Nakatani will stay aboard.
A straight wager on DEVIL BADGETT will again be my focus for this race. I will try to spice up the exotics using a couple exacta and quinella combos. DRAKE'S VICTORY and GOLDEN BONUS seem like the most logical contenders. Good luck!
__________________________________________________ __________________
Today's 4th race is a turf route for California breds racing at the allowance N1x level. Par is a 104. We always mention the race conditions before we get into the analysis to help focus our handicapping and narrow our list of contenders. This race is a good example of why that's important. The 5-2 morning line favorite is TALK THE WALK. This colt cleared his starter allowance conditions over Hollywood Park's main track with figures of 101-102-105. Even though TALK THE WALK earned a final figure one full length better than today's par, he has never raced over the turf. I am not comfortable taking low odds on any horse switching surfaces for the very first time. TALK THE WALK may not be able produce a par or better figure over Del Mar's turf course.
Today's spot play is obviously a much better horse over the grass. DEVIL BADGETT (7-2) has three turf races we can look at over his last ten races. On February 7th of this year, DEVIL BADGETT earned turf figures of 109-104-101+ while still in the Donald Warren barn. On April 16th, new trainer Jack Carava moved DEVIL BADGETT back to the turf to face open $40,000 claimers. The DEVIL's winning turf figures came back 93-103-106+ for the 106 level. Most recently DEVIL BADGETT earned turf figures of 92-99-103+ for a Hollywood Park turf route that looked like a prep race for today. I expect to see DEVIL BADGETT fire another top effort as the hot riding Nakatani will stay aboard.
A straight wager on DEVIL BADGETT will again be my focus for this race. I will try to spice up the exotics using a couple exacta and quinella combos. DRAKE'S VICTORY and GOLDEN BONUS seem like the most logical contenders. Good luck!
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