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YTD: +$97, after a winning day Thursday (based on a mere $10 to win and place per selection)
I strongly urge win AND place betting for reasons I describe in my final post on yesterday's thread.
Saratoga Race 3 Play #3 Hermione's Magic
Every horse sent out the first two days of the Saratoga meet by trainer Todd Pletcher has run well. In this race, a seven furlong allowance, this horse has speed to get very loose on the lead. She has never raced longer than six furlongs and that's the big worry. But the horse comes out of a very impressive win one level lower and is at least 50-50 to win today. Likely favorite, but not prohibitive.
Arlington Park Race 1 Play #2 Day Long Trip
Shortens from a mile to seven furlongs and drops in class. Has tactical speed to stay within a length or so of the lead and the foundation to outkick the rest in the stretch. Trainer's having a solid Arlington meet and the rider, while unheralded, is fine.
Arlington Park Race 9 Play #11 Kaylas Scatcat
Maiden claimer drops one notch in class after a dismal seventh last out at Churchill Downs. But draws the widest post---a positive this year at Arlington---and has good tactical speed. Trainer Tom Amoss has been on fire all summer at Arlington. I generally hate betting maiden claimers but Amoss has been spotting his horses perfectly and switches to his go-to rider at Arlington.
Del Mar Race 5 Play #12 Shellie's Slew
Another maiden claiming race and if I miss both of these I will kick myself for risking a profitable bankroll on two of these types of races. But, this horse sticks out. First time starter for trainer Craig Dollase meets a field of two year old fillies that has shown nothing. Nine of the twelve horses in here are first time starters. None seems special and the three that ran before all finished off the board last out with the best one losing by eight lengths. The weakness of the competition makes a play on a solid trainer a strong one. Three five furlong workouts in a row have this horse ready and likely was being saved to run, and win, at Del Mar.
All bets will be rated at $10 to win and place.
I strongly urge win AND place betting for reasons I describe in my final post on yesterday's thread.
Saratoga Race 3 Play #3 Hermione's Magic
Every horse sent out the first two days of the Saratoga meet by trainer Todd Pletcher has run well. In this race, a seven furlong allowance, this horse has speed to get very loose on the lead. She has never raced longer than six furlongs and that's the big worry. But the horse comes out of a very impressive win one level lower and is at least 50-50 to win today. Likely favorite, but not prohibitive.
Arlington Park Race 1 Play #2 Day Long Trip
Shortens from a mile to seven furlongs and drops in class. Has tactical speed to stay within a length or so of the lead and the foundation to outkick the rest in the stretch. Trainer's having a solid Arlington meet and the rider, while unheralded, is fine.
Arlington Park Race 9 Play #11 Kaylas Scatcat
Maiden claimer drops one notch in class after a dismal seventh last out at Churchill Downs. But draws the widest post---a positive this year at Arlington---and has good tactical speed. Trainer Tom Amoss has been on fire all summer at Arlington. I generally hate betting maiden claimers but Amoss has been spotting his horses perfectly and switches to his go-to rider at Arlington.
Del Mar Race 5 Play #12 Shellie's Slew
Another maiden claiming race and if I miss both of these I will kick myself for risking a profitable bankroll on two of these types of races. But, this horse sticks out. First time starter for trainer Craig Dollase meets a field of two year old fillies that has shown nothing. Nine of the twelve horses in here are first time starters. None seems special and the three that ran before all finished off the board last out with the best one losing by eight lengths. The weakness of the competition makes a play on a solid trainer a strong one. Three five furlong workouts in a row have this horse ready and likely was being saved to run, and win, at Del Mar.
All bets will be rated at $10 to win and place.
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