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DEL MAR -- Race #5 -- CAPERS TOWN (#9)
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The 5th race is a maiden claiming sprint restricted to Cal-bred 2 year olds at 5-1/2 furlongs on the dirt. Par is 96. These shorter sprints are all about speed, and CAPERS TOWN not only has a top pace figure in here, he also paired it with the best final figure when he earned a 94-94 on July 8th. What's more, that race was his very first lifetime start and it was at the full 6 furlong distance. The distance is noteworthy because the majority of maiden claiming 2 year olds drop their final figures from 4-1/2 and 5 furlongs when stretched out to the 5-1/2 furlong and 6 furlong distances (just see SOLID GOLD BAR and QUICK LAD for evidence of that).
So the fact that CAPERS TOWN ran a top pace and the top final figure while doing it at 6 furlongs gives him a big edge. He is the 5-2 morning line favorite but the field is a full 13 horses and there is a Baffert first timer that may attract betting so the win odds should remain close to the morning line. Trainer AC Avila and jockey Omar Berrio are low percentage but when they win they win as a team and they do OK in the maiden claiming ranks. Also, the debut effort of CAPERS TOWN was against open Md40000 2 year olds and today he gets to drop 1 level to face Cal-bred Md40000 colts. He has enough pace to set it if needed but I will probably see him break out well and settle just behind RENDIES SUMMER is he breaks well from the rail or one of the first timers if they show speed. After that Berrio should let out a notch on the turn and take command.
After looking through the first timers, I'm not confident about any of them. Baffert has the best looking one in here, DOMESTIC SECURITY, and has his latest hot jock Nakatani in the saddle. I will use him in a quinella to CAPERS TOWN but I think it's a bad sign when they bought the colt for $77,000 and risk him for $40,000 maidens the first time out without the typical sharp Baffert works showing. If CAPERS TOWN runs like he should and improves his figure at the slightly shorter distance then he should be able to handle any of the first timers.
CAPERS TOWN is the win bet today and key to exotics. I believe you would have to spread to nice priced horses like RENDIES SUMMER (15-1), QUICK LAD (8-1) or the Baffert first timer in the quinella. But don't forget the win bet because I really only like the one horse. Good luck.
Wayne........i'm sure you'll play it straight, but if rendies stays at 15 take a shot!!!!!!!!!
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The 5th race is a maiden claiming sprint restricted to Cal-bred 2 year olds at 5-1/2 furlongs on the dirt. Par is 96. These shorter sprints are all about speed, and CAPERS TOWN not only has a top pace figure in here, he also paired it with the best final figure when he earned a 94-94 on July 8th. What's more, that race was his very first lifetime start and it was at the full 6 furlong distance. The distance is noteworthy because the majority of maiden claiming 2 year olds drop their final figures from 4-1/2 and 5 furlongs when stretched out to the 5-1/2 furlong and 6 furlong distances (just see SOLID GOLD BAR and QUICK LAD for evidence of that).
So the fact that CAPERS TOWN ran a top pace and the top final figure while doing it at 6 furlongs gives him a big edge. He is the 5-2 morning line favorite but the field is a full 13 horses and there is a Baffert first timer that may attract betting so the win odds should remain close to the morning line. Trainer AC Avila and jockey Omar Berrio are low percentage but when they win they win as a team and they do OK in the maiden claiming ranks. Also, the debut effort of CAPERS TOWN was against open Md40000 2 year olds and today he gets to drop 1 level to face Cal-bred Md40000 colts. He has enough pace to set it if needed but I will probably see him break out well and settle just behind RENDIES SUMMER is he breaks well from the rail or one of the first timers if they show speed. After that Berrio should let out a notch on the turn and take command.
After looking through the first timers, I'm not confident about any of them. Baffert has the best looking one in here, DOMESTIC SECURITY, and has his latest hot jock Nakatani in the saddle. I will use him in a quinella to CAPERS TOWN but I think it's a bad sign when they bought the colt for $77,000 and risk him for $40,000 maidens the first time out without the typical sharp Baffert works showing. If CAPERS TOWN runs like he should and improves his figure at the slightly shorter distance then he should be able to handle any of the first timers.
CAPERS TOWN is the win bet today and key to exotics. I believe you would have to spread to nice priced horses like RENDIES SUMMER (15-1), QUICK LAD (8-1) or the Baffert first timer in the quinella. But don't forget the win bet because I really only like the one horse. Good luck.
Wayne........i'm sure you'll play it straight, but if rendies stays at 15 take a shot!!!!!!!!!
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