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Three Thursday Saratoga/Del Mar best bets

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  • Three Thursday Saratoga/Del Mar best bets

    YTD: +$52.50

    Three plays today in my first mid-week report of the year.

    Saratoga Race 6 Play #1 Grey Traffic
    Horse may be odds-on but has look of a sure winner. Combination of trainer Bobby Frankel and jockey Jerry Bailey always deadly at Saratoga and hit Wednesday in a thrilling route race on a classic Bailey ride up the rail. This horse shortens from a turf route to a six furlong spint in an entry level allowance race. Horse has run well three times----but hasn't won--- since privately purchased and sent to Frankel's barn and that creates a sense of urgency here. Should get a stalking trip behind two solid speed horses. Bailey gets up just in time.

    Saratoga Race 8 Gr. II Sanford Stakes Play #3 Flamenco
    Trainer Todd Pletcher has owned the two year old stakes at Saratoga the last couple of years. This horse easily wired the field last out in a stakes at Woodbine after sailing to an easy first-out win at Belmont. Pletcher's go-to rider John Velazquez is on another horse, but that's probably because Bailey rode this one in his debut and Velazquez hasn't been on him yet. A lot of nice horses to contend with but no monsters. Bailey gets home again.

    Del Mar Race 7 Play #8 Royal Stamp
    Frankel again, this time on the other coast. Five year old obviously has physical issues as this is only his fifth race but the first in the U.S. Showed good potential racing in Europe. Frankel deadly off long layoffs and with horses making their first start for him. The horse to fear is another one trained by Frankel, also making his first start of the year after racing in Europe last year. But this one seems better. Strong field may boost odds to 5-2.

    All plays rated at $10 to win and place for grading purposes.

    Opinion only: not an official play but I kind of like #5 Powerful Sister in the eighth at Del Mar. May be worth a small daily double play combined with my #8 horse in the seventh.

  • #2
    Update

    Grey Traffic scratched at Saratoga. This leaves us with the two plays: Flamenco in the 8th at Saratoga and Royal Stamp in the 7th at Del Mar.

    Comment


    • #3
      I played both!

      Thanks for the plays!

      Comment


      • #4
        Recap

        Excellent day. Two plays, one winner and one second.

        Flamenco was second at 6-1 at Saratoga paying $7.50 to place. Royal Stamp, a steal at 9-5, won at Del Mar paying $5.80 to win and $3.60 to place.

        Wagered (based on $10 to win and place): $40
        Cashed: $84.50

        Profit: +$44.50

        YTD: +$97.00

        There will be a report for certain on Saturday and might be on Friday.

        Comment


        • #5
          I just played them both to win. Went 1-1 and made me a profit.

          Thanks Brother!

          Comment


          • #6
            Wayne,

            The way I have constructed my best bet program is extremely conservative. Criteria: horses must be my top pick to win a race and must present rather strong value even if they are at medium level prices. After testing this method for years, I have found betting to win AND place produced slightly better results than win betting alone, although it's close. If I'm right about the horse's chances but the horse just gets beat by someone better or faces bad racing luck, etc., the place price allows some return of capital and occasionally allows a profit on a race (like today's at Saratoga). My goal is to keep this program in the black throughout the year, which I doubt any public handicapper can match (that's why virtually none of them---including the best known----ever give an ROI on their picks). Racing takeouts on win and place betting range from 14-17 percent, a brutal house edge but I think I can beat it with a conservatively structured program. Thanks for the support.

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