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DEL MAR -- Race #8 -- ALPHABET KISSES (#5)
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The 8th race is the Fleet Treat stakes at 7 furlongs on the dirt for 3 year old fillies who are bred in California. Par is 106. I must admit that I was shocked to see the 4-5 morning line on WESTERN HEMISPHERE in here. Yes, I do respect her as a full sister to the Grade 1 monster General Challenge. Since General Challenge was a gelding (and won't be able to breed) it was nice to see that the Mabees at Golden Eagle Farm were also able to breed a full sister to him so that they can add her to their broodmare band in the future to carry on that bloodline. But up to this point in her racing career I have not seen any reason to think that she should be odds-on to win this 7 furlong sprint.
Her 2 lifetime sprints were back in the maiden ranks and were a 96-99+ and a 100-100+. Both times she ran a leisurely opening quarter, then picked it up a bit on the turn and then pushed strong for home. However, the pattern of her pace and final figures made it seem that she would be much better routing than sprinting and that's exactly what the figures show. Immediately after the maiden sprint win Baffert stretched WESTERN HEMISPHERE out to a 1-1/16 and she responded to the longer distance with a lifetime best figure of 102-103-103+. She continued to be raced at 2 turns and was switched to grass for her next 3 starts. She has faced top 3 year old fillies in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races recently and has run a 91-81-102+ and a 105-101-103+ in those.
When she missed by a nose in the Grade 2 Honeymoon two starts back she was helped by being allowed to set a SLOW pace which is part of the reason she held on so well late. My gut feeling is that WESTERN HEMISPHERE is entered today because Baffert and the Mabees at Golden Eagle farm (breeder/owner) know that they have a nice Cal-bred 3 year old filly and plan on using her to grind out a nice paycheck in here. The Mabees also will be presenting the trophy for their namesake Grade 1 John Mabee Hcp as the 6th race today and probably also want to have a horse to cheer for in this stakes sprint later on the card. This race doesn't always attract a strong field since it's restricted to Cal-breds, but today WESTERN HEMISPHERE will have to face some very nice Cal-bred fillies like ALPHABET KISSES who are sprint specialists. After 4 consecutive route races and the last one at 1-1/4 miles on grass only 3 weeks ago, I do not think that WESTERN HEMISPHERE will be sprint sharp and therefore does not justify the 4-5 odds.
ALPHABET KISSES (7-2) has showed evidence of being a really nice Cal-bred sprinter and is a strong top choice today. She has never run a bad race yet and has racked up 3 wins and a place in her 4 lifetime starts. The 2nd place finish was her first time out when she had the misfortune of racing in a brutally strong Cal-bred maiden sprint. The winner went 5 lengths better than par at both pace and final and won by 8 lengths, but ALPHABET was the filly who snuck in there for 2nd and earned a 102-97+. That effort set her up for a crushing 6-1/2 length win in her next start as our spot play that day. She stalked the early pace, made a strong bid and then drew well clear late with a 98-100+ effort. She showed that there was more improvement in the tank when she beat a solid field of Cal-bred allowance fillies with a 103-104+ for the 102 level. (MARIE'S ROSE finished 3rd in that race and came right back to win her next start).
ALPHABET KISSES showed her quality again when she continued the win streak even when switched to grass and stretched out in distance for her next start. She beat an open field of allowance fillies that day with a 98-98-102+ by taking them wire to wire and digging in gamely late. ALPHABET KISSES has a very solid opening quarter split which should have her several lengths ahead of WESTERN HEMISPHERE early. ALPHABET also has a nice move on the turn that won't allow WESTERN HEMISPHERE to make up much ground during that phase either so I expect ALPHABET to hold the big favorite at bay until the top of the stretch and after that I'll happily take my chances becauses ALPHABET loves to win and is not easy to get by late. She has a solid string of workouts every 6-7 days since the last win and has capped it off with a super 3 furlong blowout a few days ago here at Del Mar. Trainer Martin Jones knows how to handle a good filly and it's nice to see him get the chance. Jockey Mick Ruis is the hot riding 17 year old who's making a big splash in Southern Cal and has ridden ALPHABET KISSES in every start including the last 3 wins. I couldn't find a downside to this filly today. She seems more than ready to take on General Challenge's sister.
ALPHABET KISSES is the spot play win bet and key to any exotics in here. WESTERN HEMISPHERE is one candidate to use in the 2nd slot in here but I do think there's a chance that she will put in a flat effort today so I would not be afraid to spread a little to some longshot bombs like 30-1 THE USUAL or 20-1 COKE'S MELODY. Good luck.
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The 8th race is the Fleet Treat stakes at 7 furlongs on the dirt for 3 year old fillies who are bred in California. Par is 106. I must admit that I was shocked to see the 4-5 morning line on WESTERN HEMISPHERE in here. Yes, I do respect her as a full sister to the Grade 1 monster General Challenge. Since General Challenge was a gelding (and won't be able to breed) it was nice to see that the Mabees at Golden Eagle Farm were also able to breed a full sister to him so that they can add her to their broodmare band in the future to carry on that bloodline. But up to this point in her racing career I have not seen any reason to think that she should be odds-on to win this 7 furlong sprint.
Her 2 lifetime sprints were back in the maiden ranks and were a 96-99+ and a 100-100+. Both times she ran a leisurely opening quarter, then picked it up a bit on the turn and then pushed strong for home. However, the pattern of her pace and final figures made it seem that she would be much better routing than sprinting and that's exactly what the figures show. Immediately after the maiden sprint win Baffert stretched WESTERN HEMISPHERE out to a 1-1/16 and she responded to the longer distance with a lifetime best figure of 102-103-103+. She continued to be raced at 2 turns and was switched to grass for her next 3 starts. She has faced top 3 year old fillies in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races recently and has run a 91-81-102+ and a 105-101-103+ in those.
When she missed by a nose in the Grade 2 Honeymoon two starts back she was helped by being allowed to set a SLOW pace which is part of the reason she held on so well late. My gut feeling is that WESTERN HEMISPHERE is entered today because Baffert and the Mabees at Golden Eagle farm (breeder/owner) know that they have a nice Cal-bred 3 year old filly and plan on using her to grind out a nice paycheck in here. The Mabees also will be presenting the trophy for their namesake Grade 1 John Mabee Hcp as the 6th race today and probably also want to have a horse to cheer for in this stakes sprint later on the card. This race doesn't always attract a strong field since it's restricted to Cal-breds, but today WESTERN HEMISPHERE will have to face some very nice Cal-bred fillies like ALPHABET KISSES who are sprint specialists. After 4 consecutive route races and the last one at 1-1/4 miles on grass only 3 weeks ago, I do not think that WESTERN HEMISPHERE will be sprint sharp and therefore does not justify the 4-5 odds.
ALPHABET KISSES (7-2) has showed evidence of being a really nice Cal-bred sprinter and is a strong top choice today. She has never run a bad race yet and has racked up 3 wins and a place in her 4 lifetime starts. The 2nd place finish was her first time out when she had the misfortune of racing in a brutally strong Cal-bred maiden sprint. The winner went 5 lengths better than par at both pace and final and won by 8 lengths, but ALPHABET was the filly who snuck in there for 2nd and earned a 102-97+. That effort set her up for a crushing 6-1/2 length win in her next start as our spot play that day. She stalked the early pace, made a strong bid and then drew well clear late with a 98-100+ effort. She showed that there was more improvement in the tank when she beat a solid field of Cal-bred allowance fillies with a 103-104+ for the 102 level. (MARIE'S ROSE finished 3rd in that race and came right back to win her next start).
ALPHABET KISSES showed her quality again when she continued the win streak even when switched to grass and stretched out in distance for her next start. She beat an open field of allowance fillies that day with a 98-98-102+ by taking them wire to wire and digging in gamely late. ALPHABET KISSES has a very solid opening quarter split which should have her several lengths ahead of WESTERN HEMISPHERE early. ALPHABET also has a nice move on the turn that won't allow WESTERN HEMISPHERE to make up much ground during that phase either so I expect ALPHABET to hold the big favorite at bay until the top of the stretch and after that I'll happily take my chances becauses ALPHABET loves to win and is not easy to get by late. She has a solid string of workouts every 6-7 days since the last win and has capped it off with a super 3 furlong blowout a few days ago here at Del Mar. Trainer Martin Jones knows how to handle a good filly and it's nice to see him get the chance. Jockey Mick Ruis is the hot riding 17 year old who's making a big splash in Southern Cal and has ridden ALPHABET KISSES in every start including the last 3 wins. I couldn't find a downside to this filly today. She seems more than ready to take on General Challenge's sister.
ALPHABET KISSES is the spot play win bet and key to any exotics in here. WESTERN HEMISPHERE is one candidate to use in the 2nd slot in here but I do think there's a chance that she will put in a flat effort today so I would not be afraid to spread a little to some longshot bombs like 30-1 THE USUAL or 20-1 COKE'S MELODY. Good luck.