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YTD: +$40.50 (based on $10 to win and place on all selections)
Huge holiday weekend day of racing and after much study, most of today's best bets come in stakes races. As always, the criteria is best value for likely winners.
Churchill Downs Race 2 Play #3 Traci Girl
Trainer Dale Romans is in tight three way race for Churchill training title. He claimed this horse for himself out of the last race but rather than drop in class for an easy win, he actually steps the horse up. Closer meets a lot of speed horses. Romans excels off the claim. Hardly a cinch, but decent value.
Belmont Park Race 3 Play #7 Rating Agency
Major drop in class by aggressive trainer Dutrow. Shortens up after fading against tougher. California rider Corey Nakatani, in town for the Suburban Handicap, named to ride.
Belmont Park Race 7 Gr. I Suburban Hcp. Play #7 Dynever
The 1 1/4 mile distance perfectly suits this horse who has been facing the best in the land for a year. Bullet workout indicates major performance coming. Chief rivals Bowman's Band, Newfoundland and Peace Rules are all suited to shorter distances. There is a longshot threat here in Devil Time but Dynever is sitting on his best race of his career.
Belmont Park Race 8 Gr. I Prioress Stakes Play #9 Friendly Michelle
Shortens in distanceafter outstanding performance in Gr. I Acorn. Should get perfect trip sitting behind leaders. Had won two stakes in row prior to Acorn. This horse is actually meeting easier because the three year old filly division has been brutally tough this year in distance races but not in sprints. Trained by Bob Baffert. (By coincidence, Corey Nakatani rides all three of my Belmont picks.)
Hollywood Park Race 9 Gr. I Triple Bend Hcp. Play #1 Kela
Closer should get perfect trip with several dueling speedsters in this seven furlong race. Turning back in distance. Monster win two races back in graded stakes in Texas. Hot trainer in Mike Mitchell and most aggressive jockey in the country in Pat Valenzuela. Big workout eleven days ago a positive sign. Lone horse to fear is lightly raced Lifestyle.
Prairie Meadows Race 9 Gr. III Prairie Meadows Hcp. Play #1 Roses In May (NOTE: This race is Sat. night)
This is largely a pick against one of 2003's top older horses, Perfect Drift, whose trainer is 0-for-37 this year. My pick is making his third start as a four year old after two crushing wins against allowance horses. Trainer Dale Romans hooks up with his go-to rider, Mark Guidry. Pat Day jumping ship to ride Perfect Drift is not necessarily a negative. Wire to wire.
Opinions only on other major stakes (not rated selections):
Gr. I American Oaks at Hollywood Park: #6 Dance In The Mood
Gr. I United Nations Hcp. at Monmouth: #5 Bowman Mill
Gr. II Firecracker Hcp. at Churchill: #3 Senor Swinger
Gr. II Arlington Classic at Arlington: #3 Street Theatre
Gr. III Royal Heroine at Hollywood: #4 Etoile Montante
Iowa Distaff at Prairie Meadows: #3 Cat Fighter
Rated plays graded at $10 to win and place.
Best day of racing so far in 2004. Good luck to all.
Huge holiday weekend day of racing and after much study, most of today's best bets come in stakes races. As always, the criteria is best value for likely winners.
Churchill Downs Race 2 Play #3 Traci Girl
Trainer Dale Romans is in tight three way race for Churchill training title. He claimed this horse for himself out of the last race but rather than drop in class for an easy win, he actually steps the horse up. Closer meets a lot of speed horses. Romans excels off the claim. Hardly a cinch, but decent value.
Belmont Park Race 3 Play #7 Rating Agency
Major drop in class by aggressive trainer Dutrow. Shortens up after fading against tougher. California rider Corey Nakatani, in town for the Suburban Handicap, named to ride.
Belmont Park Race 7 Gr. I Suburban Hcp. Play #7 Dynever
The 1 1/4 mile distance perfectly suits this horse who has been facing the best in the land for a year. Bullet workout indicates major performance coming. Chief rivals Bowman's Band, Newfoundland and Peace Rules are all suited to shorter distances. There is a longshot threat here in Devil Time but Dynever is sitting on his best race of his career.
Belmont Park Race 8 Gr. I Prioress Stakes Play #9 Friendly Michelle
Shortens in distanceafter outstanding performance in Gr. I Acorn. Should get perfect trip sitting behind leaders. Had won two stakes in row prior to Acorn. This horse is actually meeting easier because the three year old filly division has been brutally tough this year in distance races but not in sprints. Trained by Bob Baffert. (By coincidence, Corey Nakatani rides all three of my Belmont picks.)
Hollywood Park Race 9 Gr. I Triple Bend Hcp. Play #1 Kela
Closer should get perfect trip with several dueling speedsters in this seven furlong race. Turning back in distance. Monster win two races back in graded stakes in Texas. Hot trainer in Mike Mitchell and most aggressive jockey in the country in Pat Valenzuela. Big workout eleven days ago a positive sign. Lone horse to fear is lightly raced Lifestyle.
Prairie Meadows Race 9 Gr. III Prairie Meadows Hcp. Play #1 Roses In May (NOTE: This race is Sat. night)
This is largely a pick against one of 2003's top older horses, Perfect Drift, whose trainer is 0-for-37 this year. My pick is making his third start as a four year old after two crushing wins against allowance horses. Trainer Dale Romans hooks up with his go-to rider, Mark Guidry. Pat Day jumping ship to ride Perfect Drift is not necessarily a negative. Wire to wire.
Opinions only on other major stakes (not rated selections):
Gr. I American Oaks at Hollywood Park: #6 Dance In The Mood
Gr. I United Nations Hcp. at Monmouth: #5 Bowman Mill
Gr. II Firecracker Hcp. at Churchill: #3 Senor Swinger
Gr. II Arlington Classic at Arlington: #3 Street Theatre
Gr. III Royal Heroine at Hollywood: #4 Etoile Montante
Iowa Distaff at Prairie Meadows: #3 Cat Fighter
Rated plays graded at $10 to win and place.
Best day of racing so far in 2004. Good luck to all.
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