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Todays Spot=Plays :
Churchill Downs :
Race 2
#4 Haley's Buddy 5/1
#10 Blackjack Canyon 3/1
#8 Dance Pro 2/1
#7 Porfirio Cadena 20/1
#4 Haley's Buddy has been facing open claimers in his last three starts and looks well spotted here facing non winners of three in life. Last out raced along the rail from ten backstretch into the stretch last out on a day the outer paths were best. Still managed to earn the top last out TM speed fig in the third place finish. The lone runner in here that earned a last out TM speed fig that exceeds par for this class. #10 Blackjack Canyon was a easy winner last out against $10K non winners of two, drawing off late to win by nearly five lengths. Was claimed out of the race by Amoss barn that is 33% winners (with a +ROI) first out after a claim. Heading in the right direction form wise and with the barn switch it would be no surprise to see this guy win right back. Just not sure the value is going to be there.
The play: #4 to win at 7/2 or better. Exacta key of #4,#10 over #4,#7,#8,#10.
Belmont :
Race 1
#5 Cove Creek 5/1
#4 Emerald Sea 2/1
#6 Lightlively 9/5
#5 Cove Creek came up the rail last out with a good late rally to finish third, beaten 2 1/2 lengths for the top spot in her second career start. Improved eight points in the TM speed fig scale and only needs to move forward another length or two to get the job done here. Filly is a half sis to a couple of nice runners in stakes winner End of the Hill (309K) and Moms Little Guy ($210K). #4 Emerald Sea drops in for a tag for the first time today for Zito barn that is 15% winners (with a +ROI) with runners going from maiden special to maiden claiming. Decent third place finish three back off the bench at Keeneland and that type of effort here would put her right in the hunt against this easier group.
The play: #5 to win at 3/1 or better. Exacta key of #4,#5 over #4,#5,#6.
Race 2
#4 Haley's Buddy 5/1
#10 Blackjack Canyon 3/1
#8 Dance Pro 2/1
#7 Porfirio Cadena 20/1
#4 Haley's Buddy has been facing open claimers in his last three starts and looks well spotted here facing non winners of three in life. Last out raced along the rail from ten backstretch into the stretch last out on a day the outer paths were best. Still managed to earn the top last out TM speed fig in the third place finish. The lone runner in here that earned a last out TM speed fig that exceeds par for this class. #10 Blackjack Canyon was a easy winner last out against $10K non winners of two, drawing off late to win by nearly five lengths. Was claimed out of the race by Amoss barn that is 33% winners (with a +ROI) first out after a claim. Heading in the right direction form wise and with the barn switch it would be no surprise to see this guy win right back. Just not sure the value is going to be there.
The play: #4 to win at 7/2 or better. Exacta key of #4,#10 over #4,#7,#8,#10.
Belmont :
Race 1
#5 Cove Creek 5/1
#4 Emerald Sea 2/1
#6 Lightlively 9/5
#5 Cove Creek came up the rail last out with a good late rally to finish third, beaten 2 1/2 lengths for the top spot in her second career start. Improved eight points in the TM speed fig scale and only needs to move forward another length or two to get the job done here. Filly is a half sis to a couple of nice runners in stakes winner End of the Hill (309K) and Moms Little Guy ($210K). #4 Emerald Sea drops in for a tag for the first time today for Zito barn that is 15% winners (with a +ROI) with runners going from maiden special to maiden claiming. Decent third place finish three back off the bench at Keeneland and that type of effort here would put her right in the hunt against this easier group.
The play: #5 to win at 3/1 or better. Exacta key of #4,#5 over #4,#5,#6.
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