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YTD: +$26.50 based on each play rated at $10 to win and place.
Today's action is heavy on Belmont for no reason other than after hours of scouring, three of my best plays are there.
Belmont Park Race 1 Play #4 Sugar Punch
Will be a short price but a very likely winner. Top trainer Dutrow with a three year old making its second career start and first of year facing usual bunch of slow New York-bred maiden fillies. Prado rides. Only two others in here look like they can lift a leg.
Belmont Park Race 4 Play #4 Paiota Falls
Pick is good for TURF or DIRT. Second time starter for Bill Mott stretches out to nine furlongs on the grass and is bred to love it, being out of distance sire Kris S. Ran a very game race in debut effort, finishing second. First time lasix and top rider Jerry Bailey. If race is switched to dirt because of rain in New York, this horse's pedigree sticks out on wet tracks.
Belmont Park Race 10 Mike Lee Stakes Play #11 Friendly Island
In only second start of life is placed in a stakes race for New York bred cots by sensational trainer Todd Pletcher. Won by shocking 17 lengths in career debut. Others in here can run but this horse might be a monster. Price may be as high as 2-1 because of presence of a Bob Baffert trainee shipping in from Hollywood Park.
Churchill Downs Race 8 Play #3 French Account
This horse led all the way in a $30,000 claimer at six furlongs last out before fading before wire. This race is at the same class level but here's the key: it is only 5 1/2 furlongs and the horse should be able to hang on. In addition, trainer Tom Amoss---battling for the Churchill training title---switches to an apprentice rider to take off the five pounds. Wire to wire.
Arlington Park Race 10 Play #12 Ardennes
There are a zillion reasons to not like this horse: terrible 12-hole post position in a mile race on the turf, lost last race at same level and from the same post by 15 lengths, ridden by an apprentice in a turf race, lone win came at lowly Tampa Bay Downs. But these factors should get us a good price. The horse's two races at Tampa were very good, the outside post can be blamed for the last debacle, the apprentice rider is actually very good on the grass, the trainer is hot and the field, while large, is weak for an entry level allowance race. Longshot for a reason but still my top pick in a wide open race and will pay at least $20 if it wins.
Opinion only (not a rated play) on the Grade I Mother Goose at Belmont: #3 Island Sand. Sensational field and this is probably the best three year old filly in the country right now. But presence of two other major horses makes it a close call and not enough for me to make an actual play here. Also, bet the Devil Rays (oops, wrong thread).
All five of the rated plays based on $10 to win and place.
Today's action is heavy on Belmont for no reason other than after hours of scouring, three of my best plays are there.
Belmont Park Race 1 Play #4 Sugar Punch
Will be a short price but a very likely winner. Top trainer Dutrow with a three year old making its second career start and first of year facing usual bunch of slow New York-bred maiden fillies. Prado rides. Only two others in here look like they can lift a leg.
Belmont Park Race 4 Play #4 Paiota Falls
Pick is good for TURF or DIRT. Second time starter for Bill Mott stretches out to nine furlongs on the grass and is bred to love it, being out of distance sire Kris S. Ran a very game race in debut effort, finishing second. First time lasix and top rider Jerry Bailey. If race is switched to dirt because of rain in New York, this horse's pedigree sticks out on wet tracks.
Belmont Park Race 10 Mike Lee Stakes Play #11 Friendly Island
In only second start of life is placed in a stakes race for New York bred cots by sensational trainer Todd Pletcher. Won by shocking 17 lengths in career debut. Others in here can run but this horse might be a monster. Price may be as high as 2-1 because of presence of a Bob Baffert trainee shipping in from Hollywood Park.
Churchill Downs Race 8 Play #3 French Account
This horse led all the way in a $30,000 claimer at six furlongs last out before fading before wire. This race is at the same class level but here's the key: it is only 5 1/2 furlongs and the horse should be able to hang on. In addition, trainer Tom Amoss---battling for the Churchill training title---switches to an apprentice rider to take off the five pounds. Wire to wire.
Arlington Park Race 10 Play #12 Ardennes
There are a zillion reasons to not like this horse: terrible 12-hole post position in a mile race on the turf, lost last race at same level and from the same post by 15 lengths, ridden by an apprentice in a turf race, lone win came at lowly Tampa Bay Downs. But these factors should get us a good price. The horse's two races at Tampa were very good, the outside post can be blamed for the last debacle, the apprentice rider is actually very good on the grass, the trainer is hot and the field, while large, is weak for an entry level allowance race. Longshot for a reason but still my top pick in a wide open race and will pay at least $20 if it wins.
Opinion only (not a rated play) on the Grade I Mother Goose at Belmont: #3 Island Sand. Sensational field and this is probably the best three year old filly in the country right now. But presence of two other major horses makes it a close call and not enough for me to make an actual play here. Also, bet the Devil Rays (oops, wrong thread).
All five of the rated plays based on $10 to win and place.
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