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YTD: +$4
(all picks rated at $10 to win and place for grading purposes)
Belmont Park Race 2 Play #1 Golden Acorn
Drops in class first off the claim for a trainer who excels in both categories. Stetches out in distance. Gets track's leading rider, John Velazquez.
Belmont Park Race 5 Play #6 Wynnsrazamatamayaz
Ships in from Philadelphia Park for high percentage trainer. Drops from a stakes at Pimlico to $40,000 claimers here. Shortens in distance. Horse is 5-for-5 in the money at this six furlongs distance, with two wins.
Belmont Park Race 8 Play #2 Reforest
Will go off at a short price here but is overwhelmingly likely to win. Purchased by client of top trainer Bobby Frankel after huge race last year as a two year old. Laid off since. Meets very soft field in comeback. Rider Jerry Bailey is Frankel's go-to guy. Frankel, with his suspect methods, almost always improves horses in their first start for him. This one can regress five lengths and still win.
Arlington Park Race 6 Play #3 Catalissa
Only six horses in this one mile $35,000 claimer but the other top two are both need-to-lead types. That should set it up for this horse, an off the pace type dropping in class from a Texas-bred stakes. Trainer's hitting 30 percent so far at Arlington.
Arlington Park Race 10 Play #8 It's All Attitude
Second race of the year for this four year old who was only one-for-ten last year but had six seconds. Stays at the same allowance level. Will get good value because his comebacker last out was so-so and jockey bolts to ride another. But this horse looks to have the best early speed, draws a good post and should be much tighter in the second off the layoff.
Suffolk Downs Race 10 Gr. II Massachusetts Hcp. Play #1 Offlee Wild AND Play #2 The Lady's Groom
I'm playing two horses here because one of them will win and both should go off at decent prices. Offlee Wild, 15-1 on morning line, makes his second start since being switched to top New York trainer Dutrow. Romped in a Belmont allowance and could upset this field of hyped horses, most of whom are over the hill or off their best form. The Lady's Groom is actually my top choice and is 8-1 on the morning line but we'll be lucky to get half that. Two monster speed figures in a row and coming off a fine second last out to Seattle Fitz, who came back to win last weekend's Brooklyn Handicap. Favorites Funny Cide and Evening Attire are tailing off and Gygistar won't get the distance. Baffert's Sarava has been lousy for two years. Good place for an upset.
Hollywood Park Race 5 Play #7 Free's Lil Lass
$80,000 claimer on the turf. Top Arizona trainer moved to Southern Cal circuit with some horses after dominating at lesser Turf Paradise, especially with grass horses. Only seven enter and to make sure the race went, he entered a stiff to fill the field. First off the claim. Only one other horse in this field can lift a leg. Last out speed figure is good enough to win an allowance race at this level.
All plays will be rated at $10 to win and place and the two horses in the Mass Cap are separate plays.
(all picks rated at $10 to win and place for grading purposes)
Belmont Park Race 2 Play #1 Golden Acorn
Drops in class first off the claim for a trainer who excels in both categories. Stetches out in distance. Gets track's leading rider, John Velazquez.
Belmont Park Race 5 Play #6 Wynnsrazamatamayaz
Ships in from Philadelphia Park for high percentage trainer. Drops from a stakes at Pimlico to $40,000 claimers here. Shortens in distance. Horse is 5-for-5 in the money at this six furlongs distance, with two wins.
Belmont Park Race 8 Play #2 Reforest
Will go off at a short price here but is overwhelmingly likely to win. Purchased by client of top trainer Bobby Frankel after huge race last year as a two year old. Laid off since. Meets very soft field in comeback. Rider Jerry Bailey is Frankel's go-to guy. Frankel, with his suspect methods, almost always improves horses in their first start for him. This one can regress five lengths and still win.
Arlington Park Race 6 Play #3 Catalissa
Only six horses in this one mile $35,000 claimer but the other top two are both need-to-lead types. That should set it up for this horse, an off the pace type dropping in class from a Texas-bred stakes. Trainer's hitting 30 percent so far at Arlington.
Arlington Park Race 10 Play #8 It's All Attitude
Second race of the year for this four year old who was only one-for-ten last year but had six seconds. Stays at the same allowance level. Will get good value because his comebacker last out was so-so and jockey bolts to ride another. But this horse looks to have the best early speed, draws a good post and should be much tighter in the second off the layoff.
Suffolk Downs Race 10 Gr. II Massachusetts Hcp. Play #1 Offlee Wild AND Play #2 The Lady's Groom
I'm playing two horses here because one of them will win and both should go off at decent prices. Offlee Wild, 15-1 on morning line, makes his second start since being switched to top New York trainer Dutrow. Romped in a Belmont allowance and could upset this field of hyped horses, most of whom are over the hill or off their best form. The Lady's Groom is actually my top choice and is 8-1 on the morning line but we'll be lucky to get half that. Two monster speed figures in a row and coming off a fine second last out to Seattle Fitz, who came back to win last weekend's Brooklyn Handicap. Favorites Funny Cide and Evening Attire are tailing off and Gygistar won't get the distance. Baffert's Sarava has been lousy for two years. Good place for an upset.
Hollywood Park Race 5 Play #7 Free's Lil Lass
$80,000 claimer on the turf. Top Arizona trainer moved to Southern Cal circuit with some horses after dominating at lesser Turf Paradise, especially with grass horses. Only seven enter and to make sure the race went, he entered a stiff to fill the field. First off the claim. Only one other horse in this field can lift a leg. Last out speed figure is good enough to win an allowance race at this level.
All plays will be rated at $10 to win and place and the two horses in the Mass Cap are separate plays.
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