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Churchill Downs :
For 06.12.2004
Race 1: MORE THAN WILD ran a super race in his debut and was just a nose away from being ineligible for this race. He's had two solid works over this track since that race and, if he shows the kind of speed he showed in that lone start, he'll be on the lead in here and never look back. RAISE OLE GLORY comes out of the same race as More Than Wild and finished three lengths behind that foe despite the fact that he hopped at the start. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas doesn't typically get his horses geared up to run their best at first asking and, now that his colt has the race and the experience behind him, it would be no surprise if he turns the tables on More Than Wild today. GALLANT GOLD ran a respectable third in his debut after a troubled start, then came back to run in a very tough stakes race in which he again encountered some trouble. He stands to improve with the racing experience and a clean trip and adds Lasix today.
Race 2: MIKE'S FOLLY was claimed for $30,000 out of his lone start and has the potential to rise to the occasion as he steps up in class for today's race. He delayed the start in his debut when he was slow to load, but he had been training at Keeneland and was likely unfamiliar with his surroundings - but he's now based at Churchill Downs and should benefit from his racing experience. HOLD YOUR HONOR was also claimed from his debut and also encountered trouble at the start of that race and never really got untracked after that. He's had a pair of good works since, including one from the gate, and adds blinkers today for trainer Steve Margolis who is always tough off the claim. . GOLDENMIRANDA'S made his debut at the maiden allowance level at Arlington Park and apparently bled in that effort. Today he gets Lasix and runs for the tag while getting the weight off under apprentice Brian Hernandez, Jr. BLUEGRASS FEVER scares me in here. Take a look at him in the paddock or on the track-if he's fit I could easily use him in the top spot.
Race 3: MISTY APPEAL looks like he could be the class of this race even though he broke his maiden for $30,000. He's run just behind Sir Shackleton, Value Plus, and J Town (J Town runs back today in the 6th race-a Grade III) in three of his starts and beat Royal Assault at Gulfstream Park. DANIELTOWN looks like he needs the lead to win but he also appears to be the speed in here. He would be my top pick if it weren't for the fact that he's 0-for-4 at Churchill and he clearly worked better over the Trackside surface at Trackside than he has worked here. ROGER WILCO won easily in his return from a six-month vacation. That win was at the $50,000 claiming level, but trainer Paul McGee may have just been seeing what he could get away with following a long layoff.
Race 4: NUMERUS REASONS has a string of solid works over the track for trainer David Vance in preparation for her debut. I especially like two of her gate works-May 13 and June 3-in which she showed both speed and staying power and jockey Rene Douglas, in for the day from Arlington Park, picks up the mount. BLOODSHOT has four on-the-board finishes in maiden allowance company. She returns from a five-month vacation, but she has been working well and consistently at the Lexington Training Center and, if she runs to those works, should be a factor here. TWO PUNCH GAL makes her second start since August of 2003 and figures to improve. She bled in her debut and then had trouble at the start when she returned from a nine-month layoff. She's second-time Lasix today and figures to be a contender with a clean trip.
Race 5: KITTEN'S JOY is unbeaten in five races on the turf - including three consecutive graded stakes wins - and appears to be the class of this field. If he runs back to form, everyone else is racing for second money. PRINCE ARCH ran second to Kitten's Joy in their last race together and he loves today's mile and an eighth distance. This son of Arch has only been worse than second only once and comes into this race with solid recent form. Trainer Neil Drysdale brings TERROPLANE in from California, which is the only thing that makes me think that this French-bred colt may be able to handle today's mile and eighth distance. But until he proves he can handle the extra furlong, I can't pick him on top of these other two proven commodities.
Race 6: TWO DOWN AUTOMATIC puts out his best effort virtually every time he's led over and was beaten only three-quarters of a length by Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones in the Southwest Stakes. Traffic problems in mid-stretch probably cost him a win in the Northern Dancer prep, but he gets an extra sixteenth of a mile today and has posted a lively :59.60 breeze over the track since his last race. COURAGEOUS ACT beat Two Down Automatic in the prep and brings his best race with him every time, but I'm not sure if he'll appreciate today's added distance. J TOWN owns a solid 2 for 3 record and tries two turns for the first time. His breeding indicates that he should like the added half-furlong and he has been working well since his last race.
Race 7: WESTERN RANSOM has never been worse that third from six starts and has raced over a different track in each of those races. She shows up with her "A" game every time, gets the riding services of Pat Day, and looks like the horse to beat. GINGHAM AND LACE was off the board in her debut, but has run extremely well in every other start. She has two wins on the turf and her runner-up finish in the Edgewood proved that she's a contender with top 3-year old fillies on the turf. SISTER STAR is a proven commodity on the turf and may appreciate the mile and eighth of today's race more than anyone else in here. Her only race at the distance was arguably the best race on her form and then she came back to run just behind Jinny's Gold going a mile and a sixteenth.
Race 8: YELL has been a bit unlucky not to have won more races, but she has a ton of class and her last race here is a good indication that she's sitting on a top effort. This filly needs for a solid pace to set-up her late run and figures to get that today. MAYO ON THE SIDE out-gamed and out-finished the highly regarded Azeri in the Humana Distaff. She may have been my top pick had Pat Day not moved to Yell, but she has class, loves this track, and has a proven record at this distance. BARE NECESSITIES is another competitor with solid form and a ton of class. Seven of her last 10 races have been in graded stakes in which she has finished no worse than third.
Race 9: SOUTHERN IMAGE impressed me about as much as a horse can with his victory in the Grade I Pimlico Special. Though he only won that race by a little over a length, jockey Victor Espinoza looked like he knew he was sitting on the winner from the start and never needed to let him out more than was necessary to get the job done. PEACE RULES owns two wins from just three starts this year and may also be improving. The bulk of this colt's form consists of graded stakes races and the only time he was off the board was on the turf in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Since his last victory he's posted three bullet works and gets a return engagement today from jockey Jerry Bailey. PERFECT DRIFT won this race last year at odds of 6-1 and looks like he's sitting on a big race today. He's making his third start off a six-month vacation and his last three morning works have been excellent. He's sure to make his competitors work for their paycheck.
Race 10: HARD BUCK may need a bit more distance for his best effort, but he's racing fresh - he hasn't raced since his March 27 race in Dubai - and he posted a bullet half-mile work over the turf course on June 8. He has a good turn of foot and staying power and brings with him a solid form. SENOR SWINGER may very well be the class of this race but may be compromised by shortening up to a mile and a sixteenth. That said, he's still unbeaten in three starts over the Churchill Downs turf course and has posted some nice works since his last race. MAJOR RHYTHM figures to go off at long odds in here but he comes in off of a win and makes only his third start of the year. He'll be forwardly placed in this race and one must respect the fact the jockey Earlie Fires comes in to ride him.
Race 11: SOURIS has never run a bad race at Churchill Downs and appears to be the class of this race. This is a filly who needs for the pace to set up in front of her, which could be a problem here, but it's obvious from her past performances that she tries every time. CAHILL HOLLY has a shot to run well at long odds if she's able to get the lead in here. It looks like either of trainer Bill Connelly's entries have the speed to get to the front, but he's taking the blinkers off of Jenny's Prospector, so I'll give the nod to this one. SLEW'S FINAL ANSWER gets Bailey back aboard. In the only two recent races with Bailey in the saddle she won by five and finished a close second.
Race 12: THIN AIR who makes just her second start since October and races on the grass for the first time. This filly has been running well on the dirt around one turn, but has distance and turf breeding to both sides of her impressive pedigree. SOUTHERN MIGRATION is another filly that is regally bred for turf and distance. She displayed a good turn of foot when she ran well in her six-furlong debut and has solid works since. MOONLIGHT CRUISE has a chance to improve with the change in surface and has already shown an affinity for two-turns. She gets a return engagement from jockey Cornelio Velasquez and should be a contender in this tough maiden race.
Featuring Donna
G.L.
***MMM***
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Race 1: MORE THAN WILD ran a super race in his debut and was just a nose away from being ineligible for this race. He's had two solid works over this track since that race and, if he shows the kind of speed he showed in that lone start, he'll be on the lead in here and never look back. RAISE OLE GLORY comes out of the same race as More Than Wild and finished three lengths behind that foe despite the fact that he hopped at the start. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas doesn't typically get his horses geared up to run their best at first asking and, now that his colt has the race and the experience behind him, it would be no surprise if he turns the tables on More Than Wild today. GALLANT GOLD ran a respectable third in his debut after a troubled start, then came back to run in a very tough stakes race in which he again encountered some trouble. He stands to improve with the racing experience and a clean trip and adds Lasix today.
Race 2: MIKE'S FOLLY was claimed for $30,000 out of his lone start and has the potential to rise to the occasion as he steps up in class for today's race. He delayed the start in his debut when he was slow to load, but he had been training at Keeneland and was likely unfamiliar with his surroundings - but he's now based at Churchill Downs and should benefit from his racing experience. HOLD YOUR HONOR was also claimed from his debut and also encountered trouble at the start of that race and never really got untracked after that. He's had a pair of good works since, including one from the gate, and adds blinkers today for trainer Steve Margolis who is always tough off the claim. . GOLDENMIRANDA'S made his debut at the maiden allowance level at Arlington Park and apparently bled in that effort. Today he gets Lasix and runs for the tag while getting the weight off under apprentice Brian Hernandez, Jr. BLUEGRASS FEVER scares me in here. Take a look at him in the paddock or on the track-if he's fit I could easily use him in the top spot.
Race 3: MISTY APPEAL looks like he could be the class of this race even though he broke his maiden for $30,000. He's run just behind Sir Shackleton, Value Plus, and J Town (J Town runs back today in the 6th race-a Grade III) in three of his starts and beat Royal Assault at Gulfstream Park. DANIELTOWN looks like he needs the lead to win but he also appears to be the speed in here. He would be my top pick if it weren't for the fact that he's 0-for-4 at Churchill and he clearly worked better over the Trackside surface at Trackside than he has worked here. ROGER WILCO won easily in his return from a six-month vacation. That win was at the $50,000 claiming level, but trainer Paul McGee may have just been seeing what he could get away with following a long layoff.
Race 4: NUMERUS REASONS has a string of solid works over the track for trainer David Vance in preparation for her debut. I especially like two of her gate works-May 13 and June 3-in which she showed both speed and staying power and jockey Rene Douglas, in for the day from Arlington Park, picks up the mount. BLOODSHOT has four on-the-board finishes in maiden allowance company. She returns from a five-month vacation, but she has been working well and consistently at the Lexington Training Center and, if she runs to those works, should be a factor here. TWO PUNCH GAL makes her second start since August of 2003 and figures to improve. She bled in her debut and then had trouble at the start when she returned from a nine-month layoff. She's second-time Lasix today and figures to be a contender with a clean trip.
Race 5: KITTEN'S JOY is unbeaten in five races on the turf - including three consecutive graded stakes wins - and appears to be the class of this field. If he runs back to form, everyone else is racing for second money. PRINCE ARCH ran second to Kitten's Joy in their last race together and he loves today's mile and an eighth distance. This son of Arch has only been worse than second only once and comes into this race with solid recent form. Trainer Neil Drysdale brings TERROPLANE in from California, which is the only thing that makes me think that this French-bred colt may be able to handle today's mile and eighth distance. But until he proves he can handle the extra furlong, I can't pick him on top of these other two proven commodities.
Race 6: TWO DOWN AUTOMATIC puts out his best effort virtually every time he's led over and was beaten only three-quarters of a length by Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones in the Southwest Stakes. Traffic problems in mid-stretch probably cost him a win in the Northern Dancer prep, but he gets an extra sixteenth of a mile today and has posted a lively :59.60 breeze over the track since his last race. COURAGEOUS ACT beat Two Down Automatic in the prep and brings his best race with him every time, but I'm not sure if he'll appreciate today's added distance. J TOWN owns a solid 2 for 3 record and tries two turns for the first time. His breeding indicates that he should like the added half-furlong and he has been working well since his last race.
Race 7: WESTERN RANSOM has never been worse that third from six starts and has raced over a different track in each of those races. She shows up with her "A" game every time, gets the riding services of Pat Day, and looks like the horse to beat. GINGHAM AND LACE was off the board in her debut, but has run extremely well in every other start. She has two wins on the turf and her runner-up finish in the Edgewood proved that she's a contender with top 3-year old fillies on the turf. SISTER STAR is a proven commodity on the turf and may appreciate the mile and eighth of today's race more than anyone else in here. Her only race at the distance was arguably the best race on her form and then she came back to run just behind Jinny's Gold going a mile and a sixteenth.
Race 8: YELL has been a bit unlucky not to have won more races, but she has a ton of class and her last race here is a good indication that she's sitting on a top effort. This filly needs for a solid pace to set-up her late run and figures to get that today. MAYO ON THE SIDE out-gamed and out-finished the highly regarded Azeri in the Humana Distaff. She may have been my top pick had Pat Day not moved to Yell, but she has class, loves this track, and has a proven record at this distance. BARE NECESSITIES is another competitor with solid form and a ton of class. Seven of her last 10 races have been in graded stakes in which she has finished no worse than third.
Race 9: SOUTHERN IMAGE impressed me about as much as a horse can with his victory in the Grade I Pimlico Special. Though he only won that race by a little over a length, jockey Victor Espinoza looked like he knew he was sitting on the winner from the start and never needed to let him out more than was necessary to get the job done. PEACE RULES owns two wins from just three starts this year and may also be improving. The bulk of this colt's form consists of graded stakes races and the only time he was off the board was on the turf in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Since his last victory he's posted three bullet works and gets a return engagement today from jockey Jerry Bailey. PERFECT DRIFT won this race last year at odds of 6-1 and looks like he's sitting on a big race today. He's making his third start off a six-month vacation and his last three morning works have been excellent. He's sure to make his competitors work for their paycheck.
Race 10: HARD BUCK may need a bit more distance for his best effort, but he's racing fresh - he hasn't raced since his March 27 race in Dubai - and he posted a bullet half-mile work over the turf course on June 8. He has a good turn of foot and staying power and brings with him a solid form. SENOR SWINGER may very well be the class of this race but may be compromised by shortening up to a mile and a sixteenth. That said, he's still unbeaten in three starts over the Churchill Downs turf course and has posted some nice works since his last race. MAJOR RHYTHM figures to go off at long odds in here but he comes in off of a win and makes only his third start of the year. He'll be forwardly placed in this race and one must respect the fact the jockey Earlie Fires comes in to ride him.
Race 11: SOURIS has never run a bad race at Churchill Downs and appears to be the class of this race. This is a filly who needs for the pace to set up in front of her, which could be a problem here, but it's obvious from her past performances that she tries every time. CAHILL HOLLY has a shot to run well at long odds if she's able to get the lead in here. It looks like either of trainer Bill Connelly's entries have the speed to get to the front, but he's taking the blinkers off of Jenny's Prospector, so I'll give the nod to this one. SLEW'S FINAL ANSWER gets Bailey back aboard. In the only two recent races with Bailey in the saddle she won by five and finished a close second.
Race 12: THIN AIR who makes just her second start since October and races on the grass for the first time. This filly has been running well on the dirt around one turn, but has distance and turf breeding to both sides of her impressive pedigree. SOUTHERN MIGRATION is another filly that is regally bred for turf and distance. She displayed a good turn of foot when she ran well in her six-furlong debut and has solid works since. MOONLIGHT CRUISE has a chance to improve with the change in surface and has already shown an affinity for two-turns. She gets a return engagement from jockey Cornelio Velasquez and should be a contender in this tough maiden race.
Featuring Donna
G.L.
***MMM***
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