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Churchill Downs :
Ladys very Warm :
06.11.2004
Race 1: STORM UNBRIDLED was claimed out of his last race and his new connections waited 30 days to drop him in for $8,000, a level at which he appears poised for a pacesetting win. He's a colt who likes to have things his own way on the lead and, with most of the speed inside of him for this dash, jockey Dean Butler shouldn't have his hand forced throughout. HALL LASS takes a badly needed drop into a class and race in which he clearly fits. He's been overmatched in his last two attempts and should be closing fast in the final furlongs at the $8,000 level. WOULDN'T WE ALL won his last race and was claimed at the $5,000 claiming level. He steps up in class today, but he generally tries at any level and should be able to get a piece of this today.
Result : 1st - Wouldnt We All
Race 2: RIO RUCKUS is bred for the grass, but he clearly has not appreciated his many opportunities to perform on it and he moves back to the main track today. He broke his maiden at Keeneland while closing from well off the pace on the dirt at today's distance and there's plenty of speed in this group to set up his late charge. THINK JAZZ and AZER have faced one another in their past two races and have not been far apart at any stage of those contests. THINK JAZZ, however, seems to have a tad more staying power, and so gets my nod for the second position, but AZER should be close behind.
Result : 2nd - Azer
Race 3: SLEWGIANA drops in for the lowest claiming price of her career as she makes her second start off the layoff. She figures to close from off the pace at today's shorter distance under a rider known for his ability to save his horse's best kick for the final yards and there's plenty of speed to set up her late charge. JENNY'S PRINCESS also drops in for the lowest claiming price of her career and is another that should be closing from off the pace. She has the added advantage of getting in lighter than any of her rivals under apprentice jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. BIRDIE PUTT owes two of her 12 wins to races over a wet track, but she certainly has not appreciated a muddy track in her most recent races. She was a beaten favorite at this level last time, but if the track is fast today she cannot be discounted.
Result : 1st Jennys Princess / 2nd Slewgiana
Race 4: REGIME CHANGE stretches out to a mile and a sixteenth and drops in for the $15,000 as he makes his third start following a long layoff. He has posted a bullet work at Churchill's Trackside since his last race and jockey Shane Sellers stays with him although his regular client, trainer Steve Asmussen, also runs one in this race. DIVINE BUCK has appreciated the added distance of his last two races and has put together good back-to-back efforts at this level. He may be compromised today by the lack of apparent speed in the race, but he has proven to be a solid contender at this level. REFORMER is another horse that may be compromised by the lack of speed in today's race. He closed very well at this level in his last race after giving up several lengths at the start of that contest, but he gets five-to-12 pounds from his rivals and poses a serious threat with a good break today.
Result : 1st. Divine Buck / 4th Reformer
Race 5: SUPER BOWL enters this race off of two straight wins and I see no reason why he can't make it three in a row. He won drawing away going a mile and a sixteenth when he won his last race and may benefit from the added distance of today's race. RIGHT REVVED has scored three of his 19 wins to races over this track and has never been worse than third at a mile and an eighth. His last race was his second start off a five-month vacation and his third place finish that day indicates that if he wasn't fit for his first race off the layoff, he is likely fit now. ONE SPECIAL BOB has closed from far back to hit the board in his last three races and should be closing fast in the final furlongs again today.
Result : 1st Super Bowl / 3rd Right Revved
Race 6: KISSES FOR BERTIE has the advantage of a start over the track, ran well against a small field in her debut, and shows a quick work from the gate since that good effort. Her racing experience and fitness give her a clear edge in here. TIMEINTOWN makes her debut for the always-tough barn of trainer Steve Asmussen. She has been posting some nice works at Keeneland - I especially like her two recent works from the gate - and she figures to be tough from the break today under jockey Shane Sellers. DAISY'S SECRET has also been posting some nice works in the morning and they've been over this track. Trainer David Vance doesn't typically get his horses geared up to run their best at first asking, but her works suggest that she can get a piece of this anyway.
Result : 1st Timetown / 2nd Kisses for Bertie / 4th Daisys Secret
Race 7: UNDISCLOSED drops into the lowest claiming price of his career for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and picks up the services of Pat Day - and it's worth noting that Day likely had his choice of at least two other live mounts and chose this one. This 3-year-old returned from a nine-month hiatus from racing in a tough spot over a sloppy track, but he may be more effective today as he drops in for $30,000 shortens up to a sprint distance. SGT. BERT has won two of his three starts and figures to be a contender today. He would have been my top pick had Day not moved to Undisclosed. PRINCE HALO makes his second start off the claim and adds blinkers for today's contest. He proved he owns a versatile running style with his last effort over the track and shortens up today to the distance at which he broke his maiden.
Result : 3rd Undisclosed / 4th Prince Halo
Race 8: NIMROD LAKE was beaten 22 lengths in his last race at this level, but the winner won by 16 and he still hit the board. His last race was at seven-furlongs-probably farther than he wants to run - and the addition of blinkers for today's dash should make him sharper away from the latch as he runs for new connections. WHAT NEXT BURT has been competitive at this level in his last two races and should be tough again today. The 6 ½-furlongs of his last contest may have been a tad too far and shortening up today makes him a threat. ELWHA makes his first start in Kentucky, but did post a bullet work at Churchill's Trackside on May 25th and has been working consistently since then. He figures to be a contender at this level.
Result : 1st Elwha / 3rd Nimrod Lake
Race 9: HE FLIES returns from a five-month vacation, but his works suggest that he should be fit for this contest (although I recommend verifying that by taking a look at him in the paddock) and appears to be the class of this race. His form shows that he has run well off a longer layoff. MAIL CALL won at a price at a notch above this level in his last race and overcame his own bad antics before the start of that race to do so. He should be flying in the final again today with jockey Rafael Bejarano back aboard. SCOUTS EMBLEM tries turf for the first time today but his breeding, although he does not possess a classic turf pedigree, warrants the attempt. This colt comes in off of all sprint races and, breaking from the number one post, should be one of the pace setters in here.
Result : 1st He Flies / 2nd Mail Call
Race 10: PRINCESS OF GHOSTS takes the drop to $15,000 in her second start since January and gets a return engagement from jockey Mark Guidry. If she needed her last race-a mile and sixteenth contest off a four-month break-she figures to improve markedly at this level and in this spot. LINNIE BELLE has been pretty consistent at this level and her two best finishes have come at the distance of today's contest. BANKER'S WIFE ran just in front of Linnie Belle in their last race together and should appreciate today's added distance. It was really a toss-up for me between these two horses and I will likely go with the one that has the highest odds at post time.
Result : 1st Linnie Belle / 3rd Princess of Ghosts / 4th Bankers Wife
************ The Post Below Was A Mistake ***********
Race 1: MORE THAN WILD ran a super race in his debut and was just a nose away from being ineligible for this race. He's had two solid works over this track since that race and, if he shows the kind of speed he showed in that lone start, he'll be on the lead in here and never look back. RAISE OLE GLORY comes out of the same race as More Than Wild and finished three lengths behind that foe despite the fact that he hopped at the start. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas doesn't typically get his horses geared up to run their best at first asking and, now that his colt has the race and the experience behind him, it would be no surprise if he turns the tables on More Than Wild today. GALLANT GOLD ran a respectable third in his debut after a troubled start, then came back to run in a very tough stakes race in which he again encountered some trouble. He stands to improve with the racing experience and a clean trip and adds Lasix today.
Race 2: MIKE'S FOLLY was claimed for $30,000 out of his lone start and has the potential to rise to the occasion as he steps up in class for today's race. He delayed the start in his debut when he was slow to load, but he had been training at Keeneland and was likely unfamiliar with his surroundings - but he's now based at Churchill Downs and should benefit from his racing experience. HOLD YOUR HONOR was also claimed from his debut and also encountered trouble at the start of that race and never really got untracked after that. He's had a pair of good works since, including one from the gate, and adds blinkers today for trainer Steve Margolis who is always tough off the claim. . GOLDENMIRANDA'S made his debut at the maiden allowance level at Arlington Park and apparently bled in that effort. Today he gets Lasix and runs for the tag while getting the weight off under apprentice Brian Hernandez, Jr. BLUEGRASS FEVER scares me in here. Take a look at him in the paddock or on the track-if he's fit I could easily use him in the top spot.
Race 3: MISTY APPEAL looks like he could be the class of this race even though he broke his maiden for $30,000. He's run just behind Sir Shackleton, Value Plus, and J Town (J Town runs back today in the 6th race-a Grade III) in three of his starts and beat Royal Assault at Gulfstream Park. DANIELTOWN looks like he needs the lead to win but he also appears to be the speed in here. He would be my top pick if it weren't for the fact that he's 0-for-4 at Churchill and he clearly worked better over the Trackside surface at Trackside than he has worked here. ROGER WILCO won easily in his return from a six-month vacation. That win was at the $50,000 claiming level, but trainer Paul McGee may have just been seeing what he could get away with following a long layoff.
Race 4: NUMERUS REASONS has a string of solid works over the track for trainer David Vance in preparation for her debut. I especially like two of her gate works-May 13 and June 3-in which she showed both speed and staying power and jockey Rene Douglas, in for the day from Arlington Park, picks up the mount. BLOODSHOT has four on-the-board finishes in maiden allowance company. She returns from a five-month vacation, but she has been working well and consistently at the Lexington Training Center and, if she runs to those works, should be a factor here. TWO PUNCH GAL makes her second start since August of 2003 and figures to improve. She bled in her debut and then had trouble at the start when she returned from a nine-month layoff. She's second-time Lasix today and figures to be a contender with a clean trip.
Race 5: KITTEN'S JOY is unbeaten in five races on the turf - including three consecutive graded stakes wins - and appears to be the class of this field. If he runs back to form, everyone else is racing for second money. PRINCE ARCH ran second to Kitten's Joy in their last race together and he loves today's mile and an eighth distance. This son of Arch has only been worse than second only once and comes into this race with solid recent form. Trainer Neil Drysdale brings TERROPLANE in from California, which is the only thing that makes me think that this French-bred colt may be able to handle today's mile and eighth distance. But until he proves he can handle the extra furlong, I can't pick him on top of these other two proven commodities.
Race 6: TWO DOWN AUTOMATIC puts out his best effort virtually every time he's led over and was beaten only three-quarters of a length by Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones in the Southwest Stakes. Traffic problems in mid-stretch probably cost him a win in the Northern Dancer prep, but he gets an extra sixteenth of a mile today and has posted a lively :59.60 breeze over the track since his last race. COURAGEOUS ACT beat Two Down Automatic in the prep and brings his best race with him every time, but I'm not sure if he'll appreciate today's added distance. J TOWN owns a solid 2 for 3 record and tries two turns for the first time. His breeding indicates that he should like the added half-furlong and he has been working well since his last race.
Race 7: WESTERN RANSOM has never been worse that third from six starts and has raced over a different track in each of those races. She shows up with her "A" game every time, gets the riding services of Pat Day, and looks like the horse to beat. GINGHAM AND LACE was off the board in her debut, but has run extremely well in every other start. She has two wins on the turf and her runner-up finish in the Edgewood proved that she's a contender with top 3-year old fillies on the turf. SISTER STAR is a proven commodity on the turf and may appreciate the mile and eighth of today's race more than anyone else in here. Her only race at the distance was arguably the best race on her form and then she came back to run just behind Jinny's Gold going a mile and a sixteenth.
Race 8: YELL has been a bit unlucky not to have won more races, but she has a ton of class and her last race here is a good indication that she's sitting on a top effort. This filly needs for a solid pace to set-up her late run and figures to get that today. MAYO ON THE SIDE out-gamed and out-finished the highly regarded Azeri in the Humana Distaff. She may have been my top pick had Pat Day not moved to Yell, but she has class, loves this track, and has a proven record at this distance. BARE NECESSITIES is another competitor with solid form and a ton of class. Seven of her last 10 races have been in graded stakes in which she has finished no worse than third.
Race 9: SOUTHERN IMAGE impressed me about as much as a horse can with his victory in the Grade I Pimlico Special. Though he only won that race by a little over a length, jockey Victor Espinoza looked like he knew he was sitting on the winner from the start and never needed to let him out more than was necessary to get the job done. PEACE RULES owns two wins from just three starts this year and may also be improving. The bulk of this colt's form consists of graded stakes races and the only time he was off the board was on the turf in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Since his last victory he's posted three bullet works and gets a return engagement today from jockey Jerry Bailey. PERFECT DRIFT won this race last year at odds of 6-1 and looks like he's sitting on a big race today. He's making his third start off a six-month vacation and his last three morning works have been excellent. He's sure to make his competitors work for their paycheck.
Race 10: HARD BUCK may need a bit more distance for his best effort, but he's racing fresh - he hasn't raced since his March 27 race in Dubai - and he posted a bullet half-mile work over the turf course on June 8. He has a good turn of foot and staying power and brings with him a solid form. SENOR SWINGER may very well be the class of this race but may be compromised by shortening up to a mile and a sixteenth. That said, he's still unbeaten in three starts over the Churchill Downs turf course and has posted some nice works since his last race. MAJOR RHYTHM figures to go off at long odds in here but he comes in off of a win and makes only his third start of the year. He'll be forwardly placed in this race and one must respect the fact the jockey Earlie Fires comes in to ride him.
Race 11: SOURIS has never run a bad race at Churchill Downs and appears to be the class of this race. This is a filly who needs for the pace to set up in front of her, which could be a problem here, but it's obvious from her past performances that she tries every time. CAHILL HOLLY has a shot to run well at long odds if she's able to get the lead in here. It looks like either of trainer Bill Connelly's entries have the speed to get to the front, but he's taking the blinkers off of Jenny's Prospector, so I'll give the nod to this one. SLEW'S FINAL ANSWER gets Bailey back aboard. In the only two recent races with Bailey in the saddle she won by five and finished a close second.
Race 12: THIN AIR who makes just her second start since October and races on the grass for the first time. This filly has been running well on the dirt around one turn, but has distance and turf breeding to both sides of her impressive pedigree. SOUTHERN MIGRATION is another filly that is regally bred for turf and distance. She displayed a good turn of foot when she ran well in her six-furlong debut and has solid works since. MOONLIGHT CRUISE has a chance to improve with the change in surface and has already shown an affinity for two-turns. She gets a return engagement from jockey Cornelio Velasquez and should be a contender in this tough maiden race.
Featuring Donna
G.L.
***MMM***
:cool: :cool: :cool:
06.11.2004
Race 1: STORM UNBRIDLED was claimed out of his last race and his new connections waited 30 days to drop him in for $8,000, a level at which he appears poised for a pacesetting win. He's a colt who likes to have things his own way on the lead and, with most of the speed inside of him for this dash, jockey Dean Butler shouldn't have his hand forced throughout. HALL LASS takes a badly needed drop into a class and race in which he clearly fits. He's been overmatched in his last two attempts and should be closing fast in the final furlongs at the $8,000 level. WOULDN'T WE ALL won his last race and was claimed at the $5,000 claiming level. He steps up in class today, but he generally tries at any level and should be able to get a piece of this today.
Result : 1st - Wouldnt We All
Race 2: RIO RUCKUS is bred for the grass, but he clearly has not appreciated his many opportunities to perform on it and he moves back to the main track today. He broke his maiden at Keeneland while closing from well off the pace on the dirt at today's distance and there's plenty of speed in this group to set up his late charge. THINK JAZZ and AZER have faced one another in their past two races and have not been far apart at any stage of those contests. THINK JAZZ, however, seems to have a tad more staying power, and so gets my nod for the second position, but AZER should be close behind.
Result : 2nd - Azer
Race 3: SLEWGIANA drops in for the lowest claiming price of her career as she makes her second start off the layoff. She figures to close from off the pace at today's shorter distance under a rider known for his ability to save his horse's best kick for the final yards and there's plenty of speed to set up her late charge. JENNY'S PRINCESS also drops in for the lowest claiming price of her career and is another that should be closing from off the pace. She has the added advantage of getting in lighter than any of her rivals under apprentice jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. BIRDIE PUTT owes two of her 12 wins to races over a wet track, but she certainly has not appreciated a muddy track in her most recent races. She was a beaten favorite at this level last time, but if the track is fast today she cannot be discounted.
Result : 1st Jennys Princess / 2nd Slewgiana
Race 4: REGIME CHANGE stretches out to a mile and a sixteenth and drops in for the $15,000 as he makes his third start following a long layoff. He has posted a bullet work at Churchill's Trackside since his last race and jockey Shane Sellers stays with him although his regular client, trainer Steve Asmussen, also runs one in this race. DIVINE BUCK has appreciated the added distance of his last two races and has put together good back-to-back efforts at this level. He may be compromised today by the lack of apparent speed in the race, but he has proven to be a solid contender at this level. REFORMER is another horse that may be compromised by the lack of speed in today's race. He closed very well at this level in his last race after giving up several lengths at the start of that contest, but he gets five-to-12 pounds from his rivals and poses a serious threat with a good break today.
Result : 1st. Divine Buck / 4th Reformer
Race 5: SUPER BOWL enters this race off of two straight wins and I see no reason why he can't make it three in a row. He won drawing away going a mile and a sixteenth when he won his last race and may benefit from the added distance of today's race. RIGHT REVVED has scored three of his 19 wins to races over this track and has never been worse than third at a mile and an eighth. His last race was his second start off a five-month vacation and his third place finish that day indicates that if he wasn't fit for his first race off the layoff, he is likely fit now. ONE SPECIAL BOB has closed from far back to hit the board in his last three races and should be closing fast in the final furlongs again today.
Result : 1st Super Bowl / 3rd Right Revved
Race 6: KISSES FOR BERTIE has the advantage of a start over the track, ran well against a small field in her debut, and shows a quick work from the gate since that good effort. Her racing experience and fitness give her a clear edge in here. TIMEINTOWN makes her debut for the always-tough barn of trainer Steve Asmussen. She has been posting some nice works at Keeneland - I especially like her two recent works from the gate - and she figures to be tough from the break today under jockey Shane Sellers. DAISY'S SECRET has also been posting some nice works in the morning and they've been over this track. Trainer David Vance doesn't typically get his horses geared up to run their best at first asking, but her works suggest that she can get a piece of this anyway.
Result : 1st Timetown / 2nd Kisses for Bertie / 4th Daisys Secret
Race 7: UNDISCLOSED drops into the lowest claiming price of his career for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and picks up the services of Pat Day - and it's worth noting that Day likely had his choice of at least two other live mounts and chose this one. This 3-year-old returned from a nine-month hiatus from racing in a tough spot over a sloppy track, but he may be more effective today as he drops in for $30,000 shortens up to a sprint distance. SGT. BERT has won two of his three starts and figures to be a contender today. He would have been my top pick had Day not moved to Undisclosed. PRINCE HALO makes his second start off the claim and adds blinkers for today's contest. He proved he owns a versatile running style with his last effort over the track and shortens up today to the distance at which he broke his maiden.
Result : 3rd Undisclosed / 4th Prince Halo
Race 8: NIMROD LAKE was beaten 22 lengths in his last race at this level, but the winner won by 16 and he still hit the board. His last race was at seven-furlongs-probably farther than he wants to run - and the addition of blinkers for today's dash should make him sharper away from the latch as he runs for new connections. WHAT NEXT BURT has been competitive at this level in his last two races and should be tough again today. The 6 ½-furlongs of his last contest may have been a tad too far and shortening up today makes him a threat. ELWHA makes his first start in Kentucky, but did post a bullet work at Churchill's Trackside on May 25th and has been working consistently since then. He figures to be a contender at this level.
Result : 1st Elwha / 3rd Nimrod Lake
Race 9: HE FLIES returns from a five-month vacation, but his works suggest that he should be fit for this contest (although I recommend verifying that by taking a look at him in the paddock) and appears to be the class of this race. His form shows that he has run well off a longer layoff. MAIL CALL won at a price at a notch above this level in his last race and overcame his own bad antics before the start of that race to do so. He should be flying in the final again today with jockey Rafael Bejarano back aboard. SCOUTS EMBLEM tries turf for the first time today but his breeding, although he does not possess a classic turf pedigree, warrants the attempt. This colt comes in off of all sprint races and, breaking from the number one post, should be one of the pace setters in here.
Result : 1st He Flies / 2nd Mail Call
Race 10: PRINCESS OF GHOSTS takes the drop to $15,000 in her second start since January and gets a return engagement from jockey Mark Guidry. If she needed her last race-a mile and sixteenth contest off a four-month break-she figures to improve markedly at this level and in this spot. LINNIE BELLE has been pretty consistent at this level and her two best finishes have come at the distance of today's contest. BANKER'S WIFE ran just in front of Linnie Belle in their last race together and should appreciate today's added distance. It was really a toss-up for me between these two horses and I will likely go with the one that has the highest odds at post time.
Result : 1st Linnie Belle / 3rd Princess of Ghosts / 4th Bankers Wife
************ The Post Below Was A Mistake ***********
Race 1: MORE THAN WILD ran a super race in his debut and was just a nose away from being ineligible for this race. He's had two solid works over this track since that race and, if he shows the kind of speed he showed in that lone start, he'll be on the lead in here and never look back. RAISE OLE GLORY comes out of the same race as More Than Wild and finished three lengths behind that foe despite the fact that he hopped at the start. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas doesn't typically get his horses geared up to run their best at first asking and, now that his colt has the race and the experience behind him, it would be no surprise if he turns the tables on More Than Wild today. GALLANT GOLD ran a respectable third in his debut after a troubled start, then came back to run in a very tough stakes race in which he again encountered some trouble. He stands to improve with the racing experience and a clean trip and adds Lasix today.
Race 2: MIKE'S FOLLY was claimed for $30,000 out of his lone start and has the potential to rise to the occasion as he steps up in class for today's race. He delayed the start in his debut when he was slow to load, but he had been training at Keeneland and was likely unfamiliar with his surroundings - but he's now based at Churchill Downs and should benefit from his racing experience. HOLD YOUR HONOR was also claimed from his debut and also encountered trouble at the start of that race and never really got untracked after that. He's had a pair of good works since, including one from the gate, and adds blinkers today for trainer Steve Margolis who is always tough off the claim. . GOLDENMIRANDA'S made his debut at the maiden allowance level at Arlington Park and apparently bled in that effort. Today he gets Lasix and runs for the tag while getting the weight off under apprentice Brian Hernandez, Jr. BLUEGRASS FEVER scares me in here. Take a look at him in the paddock or on the track-if he's fit I could easily use him in the top spot.
Race 3: MISTY APPEAL looks like he could be the class of this race even though he broke his maiden for $30,000. He's run just behind Sir Shackleton, Value Plus, and J Town (J Town runs back today in the 6th race-a Grade III) in three of his starts and beat Royal Assault at Gulfstream Park. DANIELTOWN looks like he needs the lead to win but he also appears to be the speed in here. He would be my top pick if it weren't for the fact that he's 0-for-4 at Churchill and he clearly worked better over the Trackside surface at Trackside than he has worked here. ROGER WILCO won easily in his return from a six-month vacation. That win was at the $50,000 claiming level, but trainer Paul McGee may have just been seeing what he could get away with following a long layoff.
Race 4: NUMERUS REASONS has a string of solid works over the track for trainer David Vance in preparation for her debut. I especially like two of her gate works-May 13 and June 3-in which she showed both speed and staying power and jockey Rene Douglas, in for the day from Arlington Park, picks up the mount. BLOODSHOT has four on-the-board finishes in maiden allowance company. She returns from a five-month vacation, but she has been working well and consistently at the Lexington Training Center and, if she runs to those works, should be a factor here. TWO PUNCH GAL makes her second start since August of 2003 and figures to improve. She bled in her debut and then had trouble at the start when she returned from a nine-month layoff. She's second-time Lasix today and figures to be a contender with a clean trip.
Race 5: KITTEN'S JOY is unbeaten in five races on the turf - including three consecutive graded stakes wins - and appears to be the class of this field. If he runs back to form, everyone else is racing for second money. PRINCE ARCH ran second to Kitten's Joy in their last race together and he loves today's mile and an eighth distance. This son of Arch has only been worse than second only once and comes into this race with solid recent form. Trainer Neil Drysdale brings TERROPLANE in from California, which is the only thing that makes me think that this French-bred colt may be able to handle today's mile and eighth distance. But until he proves he can handle the extra furlong, I can't pick him on top of these other two proven commodities.
Race 6: TWO DOWN AUTOMATIC puts out his best effort virtually every time he's led over and was beaten only three-quarters of a length by Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones in the Southwest Stakes. Traffic problems in mid-stretch probably cost him a win in the Northern Dancer prep, but he gets an extra sixteenth of a mile today and has posted a lively :59.60 breeze over the track since his last race. COURAGEOUS ACT beat Two Down Automatic in the prep and brings his best race with him every time, but I'm not sure if he'll appreciate today's added distance. J TOWN owns a solid 2 for 3 record and tries two turns for the first time. His breeding indicates that he should like the added half-furlong and he has been working well since his last race.
Race 7: WESTERN RANSOM has never been worse that third from six starts and has raced over a different track in each of those races. She shows up with her "A" game every time, gets the riding services of Pat Day, and looks like the horse to beat. GINGHAM AND LACE was off the board in her debut, but has run extremely well in every other start. She has two wins on the turf and her runner-up finish in the Edgewood proved that she's a contender with top 3-year old fillies on the turf. SISTER STAR is a proven commodity on the turf and may appreciate the mile and eighth of today's race more than anyone else in here. Her only race at the distance was arguably the best race on her form and then she came back to run just behind Jinny's Gold going a mile and a sixteenth.
Race 8: YELL has been a bit unlucky not to have won more races, but she has a ton of class and her last race here is a good indication that she's sitting on a top effort. This filly needs for a solid pace to set-up her late run and figures to get that today. MAYO ON THE SIDE out-gamed and out-finished the highly regarded Azeri in the Humana Distaff. She may have been my top pick had Pat Day not moved to Yell, but she has class, loves this track, and has a proven record at this distance. BARE NECESSITIES is another competitor with solid form and a ton of class. Seven of her last 10 races have been in graded stakes in which she has finished no worse than third.
Race 9: SOUTHERN IMAGE impressed me about as much as a horse can with his victory in the Grade I Pimlico Special. Though he only won that race by a little over a length, jockey Victor Espinoza looked like he knew he was sitting on the winner from the start and never needed to let him out more than was necessary to get the job done. PEACE RULES owns two wins from just three starts this year and may also be improving. The bulk of this colt's form consists of graded stakes races and the only time he was off the board was on the turf in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Since his last victory he's posted three bullet works and gets a return engagement today from jockey Jerry Bailey. PERFECT DRIFT won this race last year at odds of 6-1 and looks like he's sitting on a big race today. He's making his third start off a six-month vacation and his last three morning works have been excellent. He's sure to make his competitors work for their paycheck.
Race 10: HARD BUCK may need a bit more distance for his best effort, but he's racing fresh - he hasn't raced since his March 27 race in Dubai - and he posted a bullet half-mile work over the turf course on June 8. He has a good turn of foot and staying power and brings with him a solid form. SENOR SWINGER may very well be the class of this race but may be compromised by shortening up to a mile and a sixteenth. That said, he's still unbeaten in three starts over the Churchill Downs turf course and has posted some nice works since his last race. MAJOR RHYTHM figures to go off at long odds in here but he comes in off of a win and makes only his third start of the year. He'll be forwardly placed in this race and one must respect the fact the jockey Earlie Fires comes in to ride him.
Race 11: SOURIS has never run a bad race at Churchill Downs and appears to be the class of this race. This is a filly who needs for the pace to set up in front of her, which could be a problem here, but it's obvious from her past performances that she tries every time. CAHILL HOLLY has a shot to run well at long odds if she's able to get the lead in here. It looks like either of trainer Bill Connelly's entries have the speed to get to the front, but he's taking the blinkers off of Jenny's Prospector, so I'll give the nod to this one. SLEW'S FINAL ANSWER gets Bailey back aboard. In the only two recent races with Bailey in the saddle she won by five and finished a close second.
Race 12: THIN AIR who makes just her second start since October and races on the grass for the first time. This filly has been running well on the dirt around one turn, but has distance and turf breeding to both sides of her impressive pedigree. SOUTHERN MIGRATION is another filly that is regally bred for turf and distance. She displayed a good turn of foot when she ran well in her six-furlong debut and has solid works since. MOONLIGHT CRUISE has a chance to improve with the change in surface and has already shown an affinity for two-turns. She gets a return engagement from jockey Cornelio Velasquez and should be a contender in this tough maiden race.
Featuring Donna
G.L.
***MMM***
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