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Churchill Downs :
Analysis For 06.04.2004
Race 1: BALANCED FLIGHT broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park two starts back, narrowly missed making it two in-a-row for $30,000 on the grass and now drops into a non-winners of two for $10,000 on the dirt at the distance at which he broke his maiden. He shows no works since his race in April, but trainer Bill Mott will bring him into the race in good condition and he sticks out in this race at a short price. GILDERSLEEVES won this condition at last asking, but is eligible for it again because he was disqualified from his maiden victory after he had already won again. His last win came against lesser company at River Downs, but he's undefeated when running for a tag and should not be overlooked. BLACKJACK CANYON broke his maiden at last asking and looks like he tries every time out.
Race 2: HUSH U DREAMER was claimed out of a race at this level last time out from a race in which she defeated three of today's rivals. Trainer Tom Amoss, always tough with horses off the claim, waited the thirty days to get this filly "out of jail" (eligible to run back for the price at which she was claimed) and runs her back in a spot in which she could again dominate. SUNSHINE DREAMER was claimed two starts back out of the Hush U Dreamer race on April 28, in which she could do no better than second. This is another filly that gives her best effort every time she's led over. RUN SARAH RUN stumbled at the start last time out, but stands to run much better today if she breaks well. She runs her best when she gains good position, but there could be three or four horses gunning for the lead in this group.
Race3: JUMP FOR JOYEUX was overmatched in a tough starter allowance race last time out, but was an easy winner at this class level two starts back and looks like the horse to beat today. He's never won at today's distance, but his lone start at seven furlongs came in a tough allowance race. ALL AMERICAN BLUE drops to the $20,000 claiming level and has run some of his better races against this level of company. There appears to be plenty of early speed to set up his late run. BROKE BUT STYLIN proved with his last win, albeit against slightly cheaper company, that he can be as competitive in Kentucky as he was in Tampa and Indiana.
Race 4: UPSHOT drops in for $25,000 after running poorly in a maiden allowance for trainer Steve Asmussen, but some other contenders in this race displayed considerable improvement with similar moves. She has two works since her debut, gets in with the ultra-light weight of 110 pounds under apprentice Brian Hernandez, Jr. and could make a quick reversal of form. CALL ME CHIEF makes her debut today with some nice works over the track at Churchill's Trackside. She sports a bullet :35.20 move in her only published work from the gate and should have the speed to gain good early position. CONCORD MISS has been prepping at trainer Chris Paasch's training facility and has also been working well. She too has a bullet work from the gate and should leave the latch running.
Race 5: MAJESTIC GIRL drops into the lowest claiming price of her career, but she ran well in her second start off a long layoff and figures to be competitive here. With two races under he belt and today's drop in class, she figures to be a contender. JUDGE SOPHIA won at this level in her last race. The extra half-furlong of today's contest could present a challenge, but she did win drawing away in her last contest. FLAIL comes off of two wins at River Downs and her good recent form makes her a threat here. Take a look at WILD FLOWER in the paddock or on the track. If she's fit, she can't be left out of exotic wagers and could even steal the race.
Race 6: SALUTE THE COUNT enters this race off of two second-place finishes at this level in which he set all the early fractions only to be outfinished in the final furlongs. Those races were at 6 ½ and 7 furlongs, respectively, and he should appreciate the slightly shorter distance of today's contest. TACTICAL PRINCE ran right behind Salute The Count in their last two races, but today's shorter distance race may hurt his chances more than it helps. It would be impossible to leave him out though since he's proven to be competitive at this level and has not run a bad race this year. BRITE MON and GOLD FUSE, both first-time starters, have been working well are conditioned by trainers who have high win percentages with first-timers.
Race 7: IN THE TEEPEE drops to the $5,000 claiming level off of some very respectable efforts for $10,000, including second and a third-place finishes at Keeneland and a race last time in which he gave his rivals a head start by breaking dead-last. He's run well at this one-turn mile distance before and figures to be flying fastest of all in a race that is loaded with early speed. SONG DANCER presents a clear danger at this level as he takes a steep drop to the $5,000 class level. He was not competitive for $30,000 last time out off of races at Oaklawn Park and Prairie Meadows, but takes the big drop today and is the horse that scares me the most. EARTH SHAKING won at this level and distance last time out. He's a bit hit-or-miss in his races, but another effort even near that caliber makes him a contender again today.
Race 8: LENATAREESE returned from a six-month vacation to run a good third at this level and distance although she hopped at the start and entered the stretch very wide. She's since worked a nice half-mile over the track since and figures to be flying late under new rider Brice Blanc. GOLD MARGARITA has the tactical advantage of a versatile running style. She broke her maiden in a wire-to-wire effort then came back to run two good off-the-pace races at this level. STORM'S DARLING ran just behind Gold Margarita the last time they faced one another. She manages to pick up a check most every time and has two good works over this track since her last race.
Race 9: SHAKE THE BANK ran incredibly well off an eight-month layoff to post a wire-to-wire victory at Keeneland at the one-other-than level, then came back two starts later at Churchill to validate that win with an effort that would make him a clear contender at this level. He could be hooked early today by Puget Sound, but his past performances indicate that he can run well from just off the pace and today's shorter distance should help his chances. Trainer Vickie Foley did a remarkable job of getting KRISHERRA ready off a long rest and he managed to collect a win over a yielding turf course going a mile and a sixteenth. A repeat of that effort makes him a serious player here. PUGET SOUND is the speed of this race and he claimed a wire-to-wire victory over the track in his last effort. If he gets a clear lead he may be tough to run down, but he steps up in class and faces some strong challengers today.
Race 10: SHE'S ENOUGH has posted two seconds and a third from her three starts this year. She has plenty of speed but showed in her last race that she can also sustain her effort from just off the pace and should appreciate today's shorter distance of 5 ½-furlongs. RIGHT MIX has gained an easy lead but faded late in most of her races and is another horse that should appreciate today's distance. She ran a nice second at this distance in her last race and a repeat of that effort will make her tough to catch in here. I'M SO SEXY makes her debut for trainer Steve Asmussen, who is always good with first-time starters. She flashed a :59.20 work over the track on May 24 and clearly poses a threat here.
G.L.
***MMM***
:cool: :cool: :cool:
Race 1: BALANCED FLIGHT broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park two starts back, narrowly missed making it two in-a-row for $30,000 on the grass and now drops into a non-winners of two for $10,000 on the dirt at the distance at which he broke his maiden. He shows no works since his race in April, but trainer Bill Mott will bring him into the race in good condition and he sticks out in this race at a short price. GILDERSLEEVES won this condition at last asking, but is eligible for it again because he was disqualified from his maiden victory after he had already won again. His last win came against lesser company at River Downs, but he's undefeated when running for a tag and should not be overlooked. BLACKJACK CANYON broke his maiden at last asking and looks like he tries every time out.
Race 2: HUSH U DREAMER was claimed out of a race at this level last time out from a race in which she defeated three of today's rivals. Trainer Tom Amoss, always tough with horses off the claim, waited the thirty days to get this filly "out of jail" (eligible to run back for the price at which she was claimed) and runs her back in a spot in which she could again dominate. SUNSHINE DREAMER was claimed two starts back out of the Hush U Dreamer race on April 28, in which she could do no better than second. This is another filly that gives her best effort every time she's led over. RUN SARAH RUN stumbled at the start last time out, but stands to run much better today if she breaks well. She runs her best when she gains good position, but there could be three or four horses gunning for the lead in this group.
Race3: JUMP FOR JOYEUX was overmatched in a tough starter allowance race last time out, but was an easy winner at this class level two starts back and looks like the horse to beat today. He's never won at today's distance, but his lone start at seven furlongs came in a tough allowance race. ALL AMERICAN BLUE drops to the $20,000 claiming level and has run some of his better races against this level of company. There appears to be plenty of early speed to set up his late run. BROKE BUT STYLIN proved with his last win, albeit against slightly cheaper company, that he can be as competitive in Kentucky as he was in Tampa and Indiana.
Race 4: UPSHOT drops in for $25,000 after running poorly in a maiden allowance for trainer Steve Asmussen, but some other contenders in this race displayed considerable improvement with similar moves. She has two works since her debut, gets in with the ultra-light weight of 110 pounds under apprentice Brian Hernandez, Jr. and could make a quick reversal of form. CALL ME CHIEF makes her debut today with some nice works over the track at Churchill's Trackside. She sports a bullet :35.20 move in her only published work from the gate and should have the speed to gain good early position. CONCORD MISS has been prepping at trainer Chris Paasch's training facility and has also been working well. She too has a bullet work from the gate and should leave the latch running.
Race 5: MAJESTIC GIRL drops into the lowest claiming price of her career, but she ran well in her second start off a long layoff and figures to be competitive here. With two races under he belt and today's drop in class, she figures to be a contender. JUDGE SOPHIA won at this level in her last race. The extra half-furlong of today's contest could present a challenge, but she did win drawing away in her last contest. FLAIL comes off of two wins at River Downs and her good recent form makes her a threat here. Take a look at WILD FLOWER in the paddock or on the track. If she's fit, she can't be left out of exotic wagers and could even steal the race.
Race 6: SALUTE THE COUNT enters this race off of two second-place finishes at this level in which he set all the early fractions only to be outfinished in the final furlongs. Those races were at 6 ½ and 7 furlongs, respectively, and he should appreciate the slightly shorter distance of today's contest. TACTICAL PRINCE ran right behind Salute The Count in their last two races, but today's shorter distance race may hurt his chances more than it helps. It would be impossible to leave him out though since he's proven to be competitive at this level and has not run a bad race this year. BRITE MON and GOLD FUSE, both first-time starters, have been working well are conditioned by trainers who have high win percentages with first-timers.
Race 7: IN THE TEEPEE drops to the $5,000 claiming level off of some very respectable efforts for $10,000, including second and a third-place finishes at Keeneland and a race last time in which he gave his rivals a head start by breaking dead-last. He's run well at this one-turn mile distance before and figures to be flying fastest of all in a race that is loaded with early speed. SONG DANCER presents a clear danger at this level as he takes a steep drop to the $5,000 class level. He was not competitive for $30,000 last time out off of races at Oaklawn Park and Prairie Meadows, but takes the big drop today and is the horse that scares me the most. EARTH SHAKING won at this level and distance last time out. He's a bit hit-or-miss in his races, but another effort even near that caliber makes him a contender again today.
Race 8: LENATAREESE returned from a six-month vacation to run a good third at this level and distance although she hopped at the start and entered the stretch very wide. She's since worked a nice half-mile over the track since and figures to be flying late under new rider Brice Blanc. GOLD MARGARITA has the tactical advantage of a versatile running style. She broke her maiden in a wire-to-wire effort then came back to run two good off-the-pace races at this level. STORM'S DARLING ran just behind Gold Margarita the last time they faced one another. She manages to pick up a check most every time and has two good works over this track since her last race.
Race 9: SHAKE THE BANK ran incredibly well off an eight-month layoff to post a wire-to-wire victory at Keeneland at the one-other-than level, then came back two starts later at Churchill to validate that win with an effort that would make him a clear contender at this level. He could be hooked early today by Puget Sound, but his past performances indicate that he can run well from just off the pace and today's shorter distance should help his chances. Trainer Vickie Foley did a remarkable job of getting KRISHERRA ready off a long rest and he managed to collect a win over a yielding turf course going a mile and a sixteenth. A repeat of that effort makes him a serious player here. PUGET SOUND is the speed of this race and he claimed a wire-to-wire victory over the track in his last effort. If he gets a clear lead he may be tough to run down, but he steps up in class and faces some strong challengers today.
Race 10: SHE'S ENOUGH has posted two seconds and a third from her three starts this year. She has plenty of speed but showed in her last race that she can also sustain her effort from just off the pace and should appreciate today's shorter distance of 5 ½-furlongs. RIGHT MIX has gained an easy lead but faded late in most of her races and is another horse that should appreciate today's distance. She ran a nice second at this distance in her last race and a repeat of that effort will make her tough to catch in here. I'M SO SEXY makes her debut for trainer Steve Asmussen, who is always good with first-time starters. She flashed a :59.20 work over the track on May 24 and clearly poses a threat here.
G.L.
***MMM***
:cool: :cool: :cool:
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