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Alright, I've been trying to beat Smarty Jones for the first two legs, now it's the final episode. I really think the sport needs a triple crown hero and why not Smarty Jones. The whole story makes you feel good and he deserves to be 2-5 on Saturday. Would like to find some value in the exacta and trifecta so here goes.
Liked Rock Hard Ten in the Preakness and caught the exacta and triple when he ran second. Was way off in the Ky Derby after the track came up sloppy.
Should be beautiful for Belmont Saturday with a large majority of the 100,000 plus there to hopefully see history.
Here are my selections from the rail out:
1. Master David- Skipped the Preakness after a miserable run in the Derby to run over the Belmont surface in the Peter Pan made a nice move to finish 3rd after hanging back in 10th for much of the race. Bobby Frankel should have him ready and a switch to Santos looks promising.
2. Purge - Ran a huge race in the Peter Pan when close to the pace, unfortunately has the same running style as Smarty and couldn't beat him before. Only bad race was in the Ark Derby maybe because of the slop and no Velasquez.
3. Caiman - Might cause traffic problems and then come in last.
4. Birdstone - Won the Champagen over the track as a two year old. Had no chance in the Derby from his outside post. Bailey is no dope and chose not to ride him then and still does not ride him. One of two Zito horses.
5. Rock Hard Ten - My Preakness pick should a little hope when they turned for home at Pimlico but even Stevens said they were running for second. Stevens stays in France for the French Derby. Horse acted up at the gate at Pimlico and used a lot of energy, if he does it again, forget about going a mile and a half.
6. Royal Assault - 2nd of Zito's horses. Won a minor stake on Preakness day with Pat Day. Will need a major jump to overcome this hurdle.
7. Tap Dancer - Way overmatched.
8. Eddington - In my Preakness write up I said they might be pointing him to the Belmont. Horse has been putting up bullets in the AM. Look out.
9. Smarty Jones - Again clearly the one to beat. No value playing him to win unless you want a souvenir $2 win ticket as a keepsake. Has done nothing wrong.
The way I see it if everyone breaks clean:
Smarty Jones looks to the inside to see who wants to be on the lead. Sees Purge and Birdstone going out and assumes his usual stalking position. Bides his time and as long as hes ok should take the lead around the turn. Rock Hard Ten should be a little closer to him than last time to try and get a better jump. Purge and Eddington waiting to see if Smarty will crack are sent up at the top of the stretch looking for a shot. I think this race is Smarty Jones' to lose with Eddington giving him all he can handle.
8-9/8-9/1-2-5 Triple
8-9 exacta Box
$2 Souvenir ticket #9
Good Luck
Phil
Liked Rock Hard Ten in the Preakness and caught the exacta and triple when he ran second. Was way off in the Ky Derby after the track came up sloppy.
Should be beautiful for Belmont Saturday with a large majority of the 100,000 plus there to hopefully see history.
Here are my selections from the rail out:
1. Master David- Skipped the Preakness after a miserable run in the Derby to run over the Belmont surface in the Peter Pan made a nice move to finish 3rd after hanging back in 10th for much of the race. Bobby Frankel should have him ready and a switch to Santos looks promising.
2. Purge - Ran a huge race in the Peter Pan when close to the pace, unfortunately has the same running style as Smarty and couldn't beat him before. Only bad race was in the Ark Derby maybe because of the slop and no Velasquez.
3. Caiman - Might cause traffic problems and then come in last.
4. Birdstone - Won the Champagen over the track as a two year old. Had no chance in the Derby from his outside post. Bailey is no dope and chose not to ride him then and still does not ride him. One of two Zito horses.
5. Rock Hard Ten - My Preakness pick should a little hope when they turned for home at Pimlico but even Stevens said they were running for second. Stevens stays in France for the French Derby. Horse acted up at the gate at Pimlico and used a lot of energy, if he does it again, forget about going a mile and a half.
6. Royal Assault - 2nd of Zito's horses. Won a minor stake on Preakness day with Pat Day. Will need a major jump to overcome this hurdle.
7. Tap Dancer - Way overmatched.
8. Eddington - In my Preakness write up I said they might be pointing him to the Belmont. Horse has been putting up bullets in the AM. Look out.
9. Smarty Jones - Again clearly the one to beat. No value playing him to win unless you want a souvenir $2 win ticket as a keepsake. Has done nothing wrong.
The way I see it if everyone breaks clean:
Smarty Jones looks to the inside to see who wants to be on the lead. Sees Purge and Birdstone going out and assumes his usual stalking position. Bides his time and as long as hes ok should take the lead around the turn. Rock Hard Ten should be a little closer to him than last time to try and get a better jump. Purge and Eddington waiting to see if Smarty will crack are sent up at the top of the stretch looking for a shot. I think this race is Smarty Jones' to lose with Eddington giving him all he can handle.
8-9/8-9/1-2-5 Triple
8-9 exacta Box
$2 Souvenir ticket #9
Good Luck
Phil
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