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HOLLYWOOD PARK -- Race #9 -- BUCKLAND MANOR (#7)
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The 9th race today is the Grade 2 Merveyn Leroy Handicap, at 1-1/16 miles on dirt with a par of 111. OLMODAVOR is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite but he's looked a little flat in his last few starts in Southern Calif and his personal best final figure is a 109+. You wouldn't know that he really doesn't fit at the Grade 2 level from the way he always gets bet down, but the figures suggest that he does not stand out against this group. He did win his last Hollywood start with a 101-105-109+ but then followed it up with a 111-111-106. He did win the Whirlaway at the Fair Grounds after those efforts and I'm willing to ignore his "flat" effort in the Santa Anita Handicap. His closing style fits best at Fair Grounds which is where he ran his two best races. Another question mark is why they would be adding blinkers back on after not using them in the last 4 starts (2 of which were wins). Tweaking back and forth with equipment changes at this stage is a signal that they're not completely satisfied with the way he's been performing. This guy rarely misses hitting the board but is vulnerable as the favorite today.
BUCKLAND MANOR (5-2) is my idea of a horse about to pop a big performance. His last 3 sets of figures are also his best 3 which means he's matured a bit in his last few races. He earned a 104-111-109 to win a turf mile 4 starts ago. He followed that up with a 110-113-110 effort to win a minor stakes race at a mile on dirt. He earned a 113-116-110 effort in the Grade 2 Strub stakes two starts ago. He pushed a fast pace and made a gallant move to open up 1-1/2 lengths at the mile mark but tired in the final 1/8th of a mile and was beaten a length for the win. BUCKLAND is a great miler so I think that the 1-1/8th mile distance was stretching him a bit and today's 1-1/16 should fit him better. His most recent effort was a 110-115-110+ in a Grade 2 stake on turf where the top finishers ran a 114 final figure at the 111 level. BUCKLAND MANOR ran his eyeballs out again but that 114 put them beyond his reach. He was basically in a 4 horse photo for 3rd place.
He's been freshened for 60 days since that effort and trainer Juan "Paco" Gonzalez is phenomenal with layoff horses. BUCKLAND MANOR won sharply the last time he switched from turf to dirt and he always gives an "A" effort. He has enough pace to stalk or push likely pacesetter ENDER'S SHADOW. He should take over the race leaving the far turn and get the jump on the rest of the stalker/closers. From there to the wire I'll take my chances because BUCKALND MANOR is a game horse.
TOTAL IMPACT won this race last year when he was in a 2 race window that included a 106-112-112+ and a 112-113-111. The problem is that he took a 7 month break following the win in this race last year and he hasn't been the same since that win. His best recent effort was a 105-109-109+ behind Dynever. He is likely to be sitting in a similar spot to BUCKLAND MANOR early and it will be a good fight between them if TOTAL IMPACT is ready for a repeat. However, TOTAL IMPACT has not been finishing his races as strongly in 2004 as he did in 2003. I don't see him pushing by a gritty BUCKLAND MANOR.
Those are the major players in this race. BUCKLAND MANOR is the spot play win bet and key to any exotics. Good luck.
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The 9th race today is the Grade 2 Merveyn Leroy Handicap, at 1-1/16 miles on dirt with a par of 111. OLMODAVOR is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite but he's looked a little flat in his last few starts in Southern Calif and his personal best final figure is a 109+. You wouldn't know that he really doesn't fit at the Grade 2 level from the way he always gets bet down, but the figures suggest that he does not stand out against this group. He did win his last Hollywood start with a 101-105-109+ but then followed it up with a 111-111-106. He did win the Whirlaway at the Fair Grounds after those efforts and I'm willing to ignore his "flat" effort in the Santa Anita Handicap. His closing style fits best at Fair Grounds which is where he ran his two best races. Another question mark is why they would be adding blinkers back on after not using them in the last 4 starts (2 of which were wins). Tweaking back and forth with equipment changes at this stage is a signal that they're not completely satisfied with the way he's been performing. This guy rarely misses hitting the board but is vulnerable as the favorite today.
BUCKLAND MANOR (5-2) is my idea of a horse about to pop a big performance. His last 3 sets of figures are also his best 3 which means he's matured a bit in his last few races. He earned a 104-111-109 to win a turf mile 4 starts ago. He followed that up with a 110-113-110 effort to win a minor stakes race at a mile on dirt. He earned a 113-116-110 effort in the Grade 2 Strub stakes two starts ago. He pushed a fast pace and made a gallant move to open up 1-1/2 lengths at the mile mark but tired in the final 1/8th of a mile and was beaten a length for the win. BUCKLAND is a great miler so I think that the 1-1/8th mile distance was stretching him a bit and today's 1-1/16 should fit him better. His most recent effort was a 110-115-110+ in a Grade 2 stake on turf where the top finishers ran a 114 final figure at the 111 level. BUCKLAND MANOR ran his eyeballs out again but that 114 put them beyond his reach. He was basically in a 4 horse photo for 3rd place.
He's been freshened for 60 days since that effort and trainer Juan "Paco" Gonzalez is phenomenal with layoff horses. BUCKLAND MANOR won sharply the last time he switched from turf to dirt and he always gives an "A" effort. He has enough pace to stalk or push likely pacesetter ENDER'S SHADOW. He should take over the race leaving the far turn and get the jump on the rest of the stalker/closers. From there to the wire I'll take my chances because BUCKALND MANOR is a game horse.
TOTAL IMPACT won this race last year when he was in a 2 race window that included a 106-112-112+ and a 112-113-111. The problem is that he took a 7 month break following the win in this race last year and he hasn't been the same since that win. His best recent effort was a 105-109-109+ behind Dynever. He is likely to be sitting in a similar spot to BUCKLAND MANOR early and it will be a good fight between them if TOTAL IMPACT is ready for a repeat. However, TOTAL IMPACT has not been finishing his races as strongly in 2004 as he did in 2003. I don't see him pushing by a gritty BUCKLAND MANOR.
Those are the major players in this race. BUCKLAND MANOR is the spot play win bet and key to any exotics. Good luck.