Tweet
HOLLYWOOD PARK -- Race #7 -- DRAW OFF (#6)
__________________________________________________ __________________
Tonight's 7th race is a $62,500 claiming turf mile for three year olds only The par level for this event is a 104.
I find it helpful to handicap turf races by looking for the top FINAL figure. PACE figures are not as important over the turf courses (unless the horse with a best final also happens to have the best pace).
DRAW OFF (6-1) gets the call as spot play based on his superior turf figure earned going one mile over at Santa Anita. DRAW OFF was overmatched in the Pasadena stakes run on March 17th. The winning figures were 119-117-109+ for the 107 par level. DRAW OFF was the one carving out those fast pace figures for the race. What I found impressive was that DRAW OFF still held on with a 105 final figure even though he was very tired. The runner he finished a neck ahead of in The Pasadena (Atten Hut) came right back to win impressively versus $50,000 turf claimers.
The morning line favorite GENERAL FOX (7-2) has already lost to DRAW OFF, and I can't see the tables being turned this evening. GENERAL FOX finished second with figures of 104-105-100 which rank as his career best. It's too bad for the FOX that this race has a par level of 104. I think GENERAL FOX will tire more than he did last time out if he ends up chasing DRAW OFF for the first two points of call.
Since I believe I have the best front runner in DRAW OFF, my main danger will have to be from a proven closer with a figure as close to 104 as possible. WARMEZ CAT (8-1) looks to be the best closer in this race even though his final figure of 101+ is more than two lengths below par for this race. I will play DRAW OFF as my key WIN bet and cover my wager using WARMEZ CAT as the only proven off the pace runner. Good luck!
__________________________________________________ __________________
Tonight's 7th race is a $62,500 claiming turf mile for three year olds only The par level for this event is a 104.
I find it helpful to handicap turf races by looking for the top FINAL figure. PACE figures are not as important over the turf courses (unless the horse with a best final also happens to have the best pace).
DRAW OFF (6-1) gets the call as spot play based on his superior turf figure earned going one mile over at Santa Anita. DRAW OFF was overmatched in the Pasadena stakes run on March 17th. The winning figures were 119-117-109+ for the 107 par level. DRAW OFF was the one carving out those fast pace figures for the race. What I found impressive was that DRAW OFF still held on with a 105 final figure even though he was very tired. The runner he finished a neck ahead of in The Pasadena (Atten Hut) came right back to win impressively versus $50,000 turf claimers.
The morning line favorite GENERAL FOX (7-2) has already lost to DRAW OFF, and I can't see the tables being turned this evening. GENERAL FOX finished second with figures of 104-105-100 which rank as his career best. It's too bad for the FOX that this race has a par level of 104. I think GENERAL FOX will tire more than he did last time out if he ends up chasing DRAW OFF for the first two points of call.
Since I believe I have the best front runner in DRAW OFF, my main danger will have to be from a proven closer with a figure as close to 104 as possible. WARMEZ CAT (8-1) looks to be the best closer in this race even though his final figure of 101+ is more than two lengths below par for this race. I will play DRAW OFF as my key WIN bet and cover my wager using WARMEZ CAT as the only proven off the pace runner. Good luck!
Comment