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been out of town for a while but the info has been reaaly sharp... HOLLYWOOD PARK -- Race #5 -- GRAFTON (#1)
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The 5th race is an allowance turf route for four year olds and upward. The par level for this event is a 107. Keep in mind that today's race will be run 1 1/16 miles over Hollywood Park's TURF course. When scanning our speed figures report, I feel it's important to focus on figures earned over the proper surface.
SAINT BUDDY (5-2) may look like a very tough favorite to go against in this allowance race. He comes off a 112-114-107+ in the Strub and an even more impressive 118-113-110 in the "Big Cap". One might wonder how SAINT BUDDY could ever lose to allowance company coming off such a strong Grade 1 effort just two months ago. Since SAINT BUDDY will be coming into this race off a freshener, I get the feeling today's race might just be a prep run over a nice soft surface. SAINT BUDDY has earned his three best speed figures over Santa Anita's main track. This will be his first start at Hollywood Park. I have no idea how SAINT BUDDY will handle the Hollywood Park turf course. I feel strongly that SAINT BUDDY will see his figures drop off the 110 final figure from the Santa Anita Handicap. When a horse's figures are almost certain to fall, I usually don't stick around to find out how far the figs will drop.
Today's spot play makes much more sense under today's conditions. GRAFTON (4-1) could go off at a bit of an overlay, since SAINT BUDDY should dominate the wagering action. Based on the speed figures report, it looks like GRAFTON is starting to improve with each and every outing. Neil Drysdale will give the controls back to Kent D who was aboard GRAFTON's last win on March 7th. In that race GRAFTON earned figures of 98-99-104 against N1x company. Most recently, GRAFTON posted figures of 104-108-106+ while checking in third behind a couple of nice turf specialists. I believe Drysdale has GRAFTON heading in the right direction and looking as a solid contender at today's 107 par level.
I will focus on a straight wager with GRAFTON. This race could offer even more value if SAINT BUDDY should miss one of the top two placings. I would use both Canani runners SEQUOIAN (8-1) and BAYAMO (7-2) with GRAFTON for my exacta and quinella combos. I might even toss in another longshot PINKHAIR (8-1) if we're looking for a grande CINCO DE MAYO payout. Good luck!
__________________________________________________ __________________
The 5th race is an allowance turf route for four year olds and upward. The par level for this event is a 107. Keep in mind that today's race will be run 1 1/16 miles over Hollywood Park's TURF course. When scanning our speed figures report, I feel it's important to focus on figures earned over the proper surface.
SAINT BUDDY (5-2) may look like a very tough favorite to go against in this allowance race. He comes off a 112-114-107+ in the Strub and an even more impressive 118-113-110 in the "Big Cap". One might wonder how SAINT BUDDY could ever lose to allowance company coming off such a strong Grade 1 effort just two months ago. Since SAINT BUDDY will be coming into this race off a freshener, I get the feeling today's race might just be a prep run over a nice soft surface. SAINT BUDDY has earned his three best speed figures over Santa Anita's main track. This will be his first start at Hollywood Park. I have no idea how SAINT BUDDY will handle the Hollywood Park turf course. I feel strongly that SAINT BUDDY will see his figures drop off the 110 final figure from the Santa Anita Handicap. When a horse's figures are almost certain to fall, I usually don't stick around to find out how far the figs will drop.
Today's spot play makes much more sense under today's conditions. GRAFTON (4-1) could go off at a bit of an overlay, since SAINT BUDDY should dominate the wagering action. Based on the speed figures report, it looks like GRAFTON is starting to improve with each and every outing. Neil Drysdale will give the controls back to Kent D who was aboard GRAFTON's last win on March 7th. In that race GRAFTON earned figures of 98-99-104 against N1x company. Most recently, GRAFTON posted figures of 104-108-106+ while checking in third behind a couple of nice turf specialists. I believe Drysdale has GRAFTON heading in the right direction and looking as a solid contender at today's 107 par level.
I will focus on a straight wager with GRAFTON. This race could offer even more value if SAINT BUDDY should miss one of the top two placings. I would use both Canani runners SEQUOIAN (8-1) and BAYAMO (7-2) with GRAFTON for my exacta and quinella combos. I might even toss in another longshot PINKHAIR (8-1) if we're looking for a grande CINCO DE MAYO payout. Good luck!
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