Kentucky Derby Contenders :

[MemphisMafia]

THE CLIFF'S EDGE
Graded Stakes Earnings: $793,258

Breeding: Gulch - Zigember (Danzig)
Breeder: Stonerside Stable
State: Kentucky
Owner: Robert La Penta
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Shane Sellers
2004 Record: 3 1-1-1 $580,000
Career Record: 8 4-2-1 $835,258
3-year-old wins: Blue Grass Stakes-G1 (Keeneland).
2-year-old wins: Kentucky Jockey Club-G2 (Churchill); Iroquois-G3 (Churchill); MSW (Saratoga).
Best Beyer: 111
Most Recent Race: 4/10 - 1st in Blue Grass Stakes-G1 (Keeneland).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Trainer Nick Zito has won the Kentucky Derby twice, and he brings this in-form son of Gulch (sire of Derby hero Thunder Gulch) to Churchill Downs as one of the likely favorites. The Cliff’s Edge won the Grade 3 Iroquois under the Twin Spires as a juvenile, and is a perfect 2-2 at the Louisville oval. His Beyer Speed Figures have improved with every start this year, and his 111 Beyer effort in the Blue Grass stamps him as one of the fastest horses in the lineup. One must wonder if he will be prone to a “bounce” off his hard-fought Blue Grass win, but he must be respected as a top contender considering his excellent Beyers and connections, and his affinity for the Churchill Downs surface.




ACTION THIS DAY
Graded Stakes Earnings: $780,000

Breeding: Kris S. - Najecam (Trempolino)
Breeder: Jaime S. Carrion
State: Kentucky
Owner: B. Wayne Hughes
Trainer: Richard Mandella
Jockey: David Flores
2004 Record: 3 0-0-0 $4,884
Career Record: 6 2-1-0 $822,084
3-year-old wins: none.
2-year-old wins: Breeders' Cup Juvenile-G1 (Santa Anita); MSW (Santa Anita).
Best Beyer: 98
Most Recent Races: 4/10 - Blue Grass-G1 (Keeneland); 3/14 - 7th in San Felipe-G2 (Santa Anita); 2/8 - 4th in Sham Stakes-$81k (Santa Anita).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Last year’s two-year-old champion hasn’t reached the winner’s circle since his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile score, and has yet to hit 100 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale. Will the Juvenile-Derby jinx cast its ugly spell once again? Late-running colt always needs pace and race luck, and he benefitted from both when beating the below-average Juvenile cast in 2003. Couldn’t find an excuse for his sub-par Blue Grass try as he had a hot pace to rally into yet never got involved. First work at Churchill was very fast, and it’s difficult to simply dismiss a Mandella-trained runner on these big days (remember the barn’s huge 2003 Breeders’ Cup and 2004 Dubai World Cup). Action This Day is one of the few in this race to boast a true stayer’s pedigree, but he will need to show tremendous improvement in order to pull off the upset.



FRIENDS LAKE
Graded Stakes Earnings: $611,000

Breeding: A.P. Indy - Antespend (Spend a Buck)
Breeder: Chester & Mary Broman
State: New York
Owner: Chester & Mary Broman
Trainer: John Kimmel
Jockey: Richard Migliore
2004 Record: 2 1-0-1 $611,000
Career Record: 5 3-0-1 $695,600
3-year-old wins: Florida Derby-G1 (Gulfstream).
2-year-old wins: Sleepy Hollow Stakes-$100k (Belmont); MSW (Saratoga).
Best Beyer: 99
Most Recent Race: 3/13 - 1st in Florida Derby-G1 (Gulfstream).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Hopes to follow in the footsteps of fellow New York-bred and 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide. His three-year-old Beyers are pretty light when compared to some of the other Derby entrants, but he did defeat The Cliff’s Edge, Read the Footnotes, and Tapit in the Florida Derby, and his speed figure may have been compromised by the deep, beachy nature of the Gulfstream surface that day. Two of his three lifetime victories have come off layoff lines, but he will have to be sharp and ready to rumble in his first start off a seven-week freshening. Friends Lake’s pedigree is full of stamina and class, and he has plenty of upside potential. He has the same low action as his Classic winning sire, but the long layoff tempers the enthusiasm a little bit. A high-strung colt, it will be interesting to see how he handles the Derby Day mayhem


SMARTY JONES
Graded Stakes Earnings: $600,000

Breeding: Elusive Quality - I'll Get Along (Smile)
Breeder: Someday Farm
State: Pennsylvania
Owner: Someday Farm
Trainer: John Servis
Jockey: Stewart Elliott
2004 Record: 4 4-0-0 $828,735
Career Record: 6 6-0-0 $878,355
3-year-old wins: Arkansas Derby-G2 (Oaklawn); Rebel-$200k (Oaklawn); Southwest-$100k (Oaklawn).
2-year-old wins: Penn. Nursery-$56k (Philadelphia); MSW (Philadelphia).
Best Beyer: 108
Most Recent Races: 4/10 - 1st in Arkansas Derby-G2 (Oaklawn); 3/20 - 1st in Rebel-$200k (Oaklawn); 2/28 - 1st in Southwest-$100k (Oaklawn).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Who has Smarty Jones beaten? EVERYONE! You can’t knock a runner that has yet to taste defeat, and he blitzed a bullet five furlongs over the Churchill Downs surface on April 24. He showed his quality by earning a 105 Beyer Speed Figure in only his second lifetime start at two, and he enters the Derby off consecutive triple-figure Beyer triumphs. Overcame a tough post and a muddy track to take the Arkansas Derby, and his tactical speed should have him in the hunt from the get-go. Didn’t like how he changed back to his wrong lead in the latter stages of the Arkansas Derby, however, and his pedigree isn’t exactly geared towards ten furlongs. Certainly a contender, but I would advise punters to ask for mutuel value before plunging.




TAPIT
Graded Stakes Earnings: $530,000

Breeding: Pulpit - Tap Your Heels (Unbridled)
Breeder: Oldenburg Farms
State: Kentucky
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Michael Dickinson
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
2004 Record: 2 1-0-0 $470,000
Career Record: 4 3-0-0 $549,800
3-year-old wins: Wood Memorial-G1 (Aqueduct).
2-year-old wins: Laurel Futurity-G3 (Laurel); MSW (Delaware).
Best Beyer: 98
Most Recent Races: 4/10 - 1st in Wood Memorial-G1 (Aqueduct); 3/13 - 6th in Florida Derby-G1 (Gulfstream); 11/15 - 1st in Laurel Futurity-G3 (Laurel).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
This gray colt even surprised the “Mad Genius” with his Wood Memorial win in only his second start of the season. The Wood came back pretty slow from a Beyer standpoint, but Tapit should get some extra credit as he rallied from last over an Aqueduct track that played to speed all day. A grandson of Classic winners A.P. Indy and Unbridled, Tapit shouldn’t have a problem with the demanding Derby distance. He obviously has a great deal of talent, and it’s very possible that we *****’t seen his best race yet. His only poor run came in the Florida Derby, and he had a tough trip over a deep and tiring surface in that event. Will be making the important third start of the form cycle in the Derby, and further Beyer improvement is expected. Has a tendency to race with his head cocked towards the stands, and may still be a bit green, but he shouldn’t be overlooked on Derby day.



CASTLEDALE
Graded Stakes Earnings: $510,000

Breeding: Peintre Celebre - Louju (Silver Hawk)
Breeder: Gigginstown House Stud
Country: Ireland
Owner: Frank Lyons and Greg Knee
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Jockey: Jose Valdivia
2004 Record: 2 1-0-0 $450,000
Career Record: 10 3-4-1 $559,623
3-year-old wins: Santa Anita Derby-G1 (Santa Anita).
2-year-old wins: Generous-G3 (Hollywood - Turf); Blenheim Stakes (Curragh - Ireland); Gowran Park Nursery Hcp. (Gowran Park - Ireland).
Best Beyer: 103
Most Recent Races: 4/3 - 1st in Santa Anita Derby-G1 (Santa Anita); 3/6 - 6th in San Rafael-G2 (Santa Anita).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Irish-bred came from nowhere to shock the Santa Anita Derby at 30-1 odds. Was a bit hard to handle in the early stages of the race, but soon settled down beautifully, and sat a great trip behind a four-horse battle on the far turn. Angled five wide for the stretch drive, and got up in time, but didn’t like how he was drifting in during the final furlong. Mullins wasn’t 100% convinced about the Derby until his runner worked at Santa Anita a week before the race. A Graded winner on turf and dirt, he shouldn’t have a problem going the Derby distance, but I’m definitely concerned about him “bouncing” off the career-best Beyer.



LIMEHOUSE
Graded Stakes Earnings: $478,405

Breeding: Grand Slam - Dixieland Blues (Dixieland Band)
Breeder: Cheryl A. Curtin
State: Florida
Owner: Dogwood Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Santos
2004 Record: 3 2-0-1 $315,000
Career Record: 9 5-0-3 $575,435
3-year-old wins: Tampa Bay Derby-G3 (Tampa Bay Downs); Hutcheson-G2 (Gulfstream).
2-year-old wins: Bashford Manor-G3 (Churchill Downs); Juvenile-$114k (Churchill Downs); MSW (Keeneland).
Best Beyer: 100
Most Recent Race: 4/10 - 3rd in Blue Grass Stakes-G1 (Keeneland).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Unbeaten at Churchill Downs, and one of the more consistent runners in the race, but I have to wonder if we’ve seen his best already. Looked like a winner every step of the way in the Tampa Bay Derby, then might have been ridden too aggressively in the early stages of the Blue Grass. Still held on well for third at Keeneland, and matched his career-high 100 Beyer Speed Figure. He is certainly in the right hands, but there have always been questions surrounding his ability to get a true route of ground. Like the fact that he has tactical speed, and he may attempt to sit the Funny Cide stalking trip of 2003. Still, he must show a more potent stretch punch to get his picture taken.



LION HEART
Graded Stakes Earnings: $475,600

Breeding: Tale of the Cat - Satin Sunrise (Mr. Leader)
Breeder: Sabine Stable
State: Kentucky
Owner: Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Jockey: Mike Smith
2004 Record: 2 0-2-0 $190,000
Career Record: 5 3-2-0 $500,800
3-year-old wins: none.
2-year-old wins: Hollywood Futurity-G1 (Hollywood); Hollywood Prevue-G3 (Hollywood); MSW (Santa Anita).
Best Beyer: 110
Most Recent Races: 4/10 - 2nd in Blue Grass Stakes-G1 (Keeneland); 3/6 - 2nd in San Rafael-G2 (Santa Anita); 12/20 - 1st in Hollywood Futurity-G1 (Hollywood).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Might have the most natural talent of any Derby entrant. Despite losing his last two starts, there is no doubt in my mind that he was the best horse in both of those races. Was involved in a gut-busting speed duel in the San Rafael and Blue Grass, and put away his pace rivals both times only to be run down late by a good-trip closer. Even though he was beaten by The Cliff’s Edge at Keeneland, he galloped out well-ahead of his rival. Speedster may not have the pedigree to go ten furlongs, but certainly has the Beyers and ability. Figures to make the lead once again on Derby day, and should be right there when the field turns for home. That last quarter mile is a big question mark, but he must be respected as a legitimate contender.




READ THE FOOTNOTES
Graded Stakes Earnings: $475,600

Breeding: Smoke Glacken - Baydon Belle (Al Nasr)
Breeder: Lawrence Goichman
State: New York
Owner: Klaravich Stables
Trainer: Rick Violette
Jockey: Robby Albarado
2004 Record: 2 1-0-0 $210,000
Career Record: 7 5-0-0 $450,660
3-year-old wins: Fountain of Youth-G2 (Gulfstream).
2-year-old wins: Remsen-G2 (Aqueduct); Nashua-G3 (Aqueduct); AllowNW1X (Belmont); MSW (Saratoga).
Best Beyer: 113
Most Recent Races: 3/13 - 4th in Florida Derby-G1 (Gulfstream); 2/14 - 1st in Fountain of Youth-G2 (Gulfstream); 11/29 - 1st in Remsen-G2 (Aqueduct).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
You would think that he would have problems in route races as he is by champion sprinter Smoke Glacken, but he won the nine furlong Remsen as a juvenile, and earned a huge 113 Beyer Speed Figure when a very game winner of the Fountain of Youth in his three-year-old debut. It’s possible he “bounced” in the Florida Derby, but he also may not have appreciated the deep surface at Gulfstream that day, and he did make a premature move to the lead. The long layoff is a concern, but he won fresh as a first-time starter, and also won the Fountain of Youth off a two-and-a-half month layoff. Loses Bailey to Wimbledon, but you have to respect his tactical speed, and that huge Beyer is hard to ignore. Should make his presence felt.


WIMBLEDON
Graded Stakes Earnings: $375,000

Breeding: Wild Rush - Strawberry Clover (Darn That Alarm)
Breeder: Sabine Stables
State: Kentucky
Owner: James McIngvale
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Jerry Bailey
2004 Record: 4 2-1-0 $412,400
Career Record: 7 2-3-0 $430,980
3-year-old wins: Louisiana Derby-G2 (Fair Grounds), MSW (Santa Anita).
2-year-old wins: none.
Best Beyer: 101
Most Recent Races: 4/3 - 5th in Santa Anita Derby-G1 (Santa Anita); 3/7 - 1st in Louisiana Derby-G2 (Fair Grounds).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Been a Jekyll and Hyde in his last two starts. Thought he gave a breakthrough performance in the Louisiana Derby, but faltered badly at Santa Anita. May have made a premature wide move in the Santa Anita Derby, but Rock Hard Ten was even wider on the turn, and he finished a head shy of the winner. It’s hard to toss a Baffert runner in the Derby, and his first work at Churchill was a beauty. So, which Wimbledon will show up on the first Saturday in May? Your guess is as good as mine.



POLLARD'S VISION
Graded Stakes Earnings: $366,000

Breeding: Carson City - Etats Unis (Dixieland Band)
Breeder: Charles A. Smith
State: Kentucky
Owner: Edgewood Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
2004 Record: 4 2-1-1 $392,520
Career Record: 10 3-2-3 $445,811
3-year-old wins: Illinois Derby-G2 (Hawthorne), Allownw1x (Gulfstream).
2-year-old wins: MSW (Saratoga).
Best Beyer: 107
Most Recent Races: 4/3 - 1st in Illinois Derby-G2 (Hawthorne); 3/7 - 3rd in Louisiana Derby-G2 (Fair Grounds).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
A Pollard’s Vision Derby win would make for a heartwarming story. The one-eyed son of Carson City has beaten the odds all of his life, and has a tremendous amount of versatility. He went wire-to-wire in the Illinois Derby, yet was able to rate off the pace in his N1X tally at Gulfstream. That 107 Beyer looks pretty huge on paper, but it would be kinda surprising if a son of sprint stallion Carson City actually won the Derby. Still, he is a direct descendent of champion Chris Evert, and his female family has produced such quality routers as Bowman’s Band and Revasser. Must respect the Pletcher barn, but a minor award may be his Derby ceiling.


IMPERIALISM
Graded Stakes Earnings: $363,000

Breeding: Langfuhr - Bodhavista (Pass the Tab)
Breeder: Farnsworth Farms
State: Kentucky
Owner: Steve Taub
Trainer: Kristin Mulhall
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
2004 Record: 4 2-1-0 $363,000
Career Record: 15 5-4-1 $437,605
3-year-old wins: San Rafael-G2 (Santa Anita); San Vicente-G2 (Santa Anita).
2-year-old wins: AllowN1X (Calder); Clm 32000 (Calder); maiden claiming (Calder).
Best Beyer: 104
Most Recent Races: 4/3 - 2nd in Santa Anita Derby-G1 (Santa Anita); 3/6 - 1st in San Rafael-G2 (Santa Anita); 2/7 - 1st in San Vicente-G2 (Santa Anita).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Has certainly come to hand for young Kristin Mulhall, and enters the Derby as one of the West Coast’s best three-year-olds. Was so impressive in the San Vicente as he was wrapped up by Espinoza under the wire. Rallied powerfully to nail Lion Heart in the San Rafael, and had lots of late trouble in the Santa Anita Derby. Brings a string of three straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures to the Derby, and has a powerful late punch. Worked slowly in the slop in his first morning trial at Churchill so it will be interesting to see how he handles the surface later in the week. Should be running late if the pace is hot and heavy up front. Former maiden claimer may be this good.

[MemphisMafia]

Kentucky Derby Contenders :

MINISTER ERIC
Graded Stakes Earnings: $350,000

Breeding: Old Trieste - Musical Minister (Deputy Minister)
Breeder: Diamond A Racing Corp.
State: Kentucky
Owner: Diamond A Racing Corp.
Trainer: Richard Mandella
Jockey: Pat Day
2004 Record: 3 1-1-1 $50,051
Career Record: 8 2-3-2 $437,971
3-year-old wins: Allownw1x (Keeneland).
2-year-old wins: MSW (Del Mar).
Best Beyer: 101
Most Recent Race: 4/14 - 1st in Allownw1x (Keeneland).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
The runner-up in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile got a late start on the Triple Crown Trail, and has yet to taste stakes competition in 2004. Didn’t like how he changed back to his wrong lead during the stretch runs of his last two races, and it’s questionable whether he can handle such a steep class hike. Trained by a master horseman in Mandella, Minister Eric has tactical speed, and should find a nice stalking spot about 5-9 lengths off the early lead. Once he gets his lead changes down, he might throw in a monster effort. Until then...


BIRDSTONE
Graded Stakes Earnings: $327,000

Breeding: Grindstone - Dear Birdie (Trempolino)
Breeder: Marylou Whitney Stables
State: Kentucky
Owner: Marylou Whitney Stables
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Edgar Prado
2004 Record: 2 1-0-0 $36,600
Career Record: 5 3-0-0 $375,600
3-year-old wins: AllowNw2x (Gulfstream).
2-year-old wins: Champagne-G1 (Belmont); MSW (Saratoga).
Best Beyer: 99 (sprint)
Most Recent Races: 3/20 - 5th in Lane's End-G2 (Turfway); 2/14 - 1st in AllowNW2X (Gulfstream); 10/4 - 1st in Champagne-G1 (Belmont).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
One of the early Derby favorites, Birdstone’s train derailed at Turfway Park. Zito and Bailey complained about the track condition that day so he might have had an excuse for his poor effort. Wonder if this little colt has the physical makeup for the ten furlong distance, and his 2004 Beyers are light. Shows a sparkling five furlong workout at Churchill on April 24, and might be rounding back to his best form. His half-sister won the Kentucky Oaks, his sire won the Derby, and this is Zito’s time of year. Must improve, however, in order to reach the winner’s circle.


BORREGO
Graded Stakes Earnings: $320,000

Breeding: El Prado - Sweet As Honey (Strike the Gold)
Breeder: Kelly & Greely & Bradley
State: Kentucky
Owner: Kelly Ralls & Foster
Trainer: Beau Greely
Jockey: Victor Ezpinoza
2004 Record: 3 0-3-0 $336,280
Career Record: 7 2-3-0 $399,580
3-year-old wins: none.
2-year-old wins: Optional claiming (Santa Anita); MSW (Santa Anita-turf).
Best Beyer: 105
Most Recent Races: 4/10 - 2nd in Arkansas Derby-G2 (Oaklawn); 3/7 - 2nd in Louisiana Derby-G2 (Fair Grounds).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Think this might be the “wise guy” Derby horse. Hasn’t finished worse than second on dirt, and was slowly getting to Smarty Jones after a ground-saving trip in the Arkansas Derby. Another that is capable of a triple-digit Beyer, and it’s possible that his best race is still on the horizon. His broodmare sire won the Derby, and Borrego is a direct descendent of champion Smart Deb. Have always been a big fan of his sire, and Borrego figures to be making up ground late in the long Churchill stretch. Somewhat interesting at the right price.


QUINTONS GOLD RUSH
Graded Stakes Earnings: $258,500

Breeding: Wild Rush - Hollywood Gold (Mr. Prospector)
Breeder: Toyomi Omiya
State: Kentucky
Owner: Padua Stables, Satish Sanan
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: undecided
2004 Record: 4 2-0-0 $287,900
Career Record: 5 2-1-0 $295,500
3-year-old wins: Lexington Stakes-G2 (Keeneland); MSW (Santa Anita).
2-year-old wins: none.
Best Beyer: 102
Most Recent Races: 4/17 - 1st in Lexington Stakes-G2 (Keeneland); 4/3 - 4th in Santa Anita Derby-G1 (Santa Anita); 3/6 - 4th in San Rafael-G2 (Santa Anita).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Well-hyped colt finally lived up to all the hoopla with his sharp win in the Lexington. Had a tendency to race a bit freely in Southern California, but relaxed kindly under Bailey, and drew off to an authoritative score at Keeneland. Has yet to take a backward step on the Beyer scale, and has the tactical speed to sit a stalking trip just off the pace. Goes out for the dangerous Asmussen barn, but has yet to win at nine furlongs, and his sire was more of a miler type than a stayer. Still, he boasts plenty of European stamina on the female side of his family. Might be a live sleeper.


VALUE PLUS
Graded Stakes Earnings: $252,500

Breeding: Unbridled's Song - Roll Over Baby (Rollin On Over)
Breeder: Just The Beginning Farm
State: Kentucky
Owner: Aaron and Marie Jones
Trainer: Todd pletcher
Jockey: undecided
2004 Record: 3 1-1-0 $212,900
Career Record: 7 2-2-0 $299,900
3-year-old wins: AllowNw1x (Gulfstream).
2-year-old wins: MSW (Saratoga).
Best Beyer: 108
Most Recent Races: 4/10 - 6th in Wood Memorial-G1 (Aqueduct); 3/13 - 2nd in Florida Derby-G1 (Gulfstream).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Trainer Todd Pletcher has stated that this big gray is unlikely to run, and that doesn’t sound like he has a lot of confidence in this $1.1 million short yearling. Sparkled in his three-year-old debut going seven furlongs at Gulfstream, earning a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. Didn’t think he ran badly in the Florida Derby two starts back. In only his second start of the year, and his first at nine furlongs, he was asked to throw it down three furlongs from the wire, and still held gamely for the runner-up spot. Can’t make any excuses for his dull Wood Memorial try, however. He was on the lead over a track that played to speed runners, but failed to go on when the real running began. Has a great deal of gate speed, but his Beyers are going the wrong way, and he might simply be a sprinter-miler at heart. Would have to turn it up a couple of notches in order to grab the Roses.


ST AVERIL
Graded Stakes Earnings: $215,200

Breeding: Saint Ballado - Avie's Fancy (Lord Avie)
Breeder: Gunsmith Stables
State: Kentucky
Owner: Stan E. Fulton
Trainer: Rafael Becerra
Jockey: Tyler Baze
2004 Record: 3 1-1-0 $140,000
Career Record: 5 2-2-0 $238,000
3-year-old wins: Santa Catalina-G2 (Santa Anita).
2-year-old wins: MSW (Santa Anita).
Best Beyer: 102
Most Recent Races: 4/3 - 6th in Santa Anita Derby-G1 (Santa Anita); 3/14 - 2nd in San Felipe-G2 (Santa Anita); 1/17 - 1st in Santa Catalina-G2 (Santa Anita).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Will the real St Averil please stand up? Is this the same colt that earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in his first two starts this year? Or, is he the horse that flopped badly as the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby? Raced very wide going into the first turn last time out, but was a beaten horse after six furlongs. Perhaps he “bounced” after his game runner-up effort in the San Felipe two starts back, and he has been working swiftly at Santa Anita since the recent debacle. Connections originally weren’t 100% committed to this race after the Santa Anita Derby flop, but you know that he can run fast, and he does have decent tactical speed. Would be worth a look at a decent price, but it’s hard to get that poor last race out of my mind.


Master David
Graded Stakes Earnings: $208,000

Breeding: Grand Slam - Nadra (Sadler's Wells)
Breeder: Hopewell Investments
State: Kentucky
Owner: Georgica Stable et al.
Trainer: Bobby Frankel
Jockey: Alex Solis
2004 Record: 3 1-1-1 $216,840
Career Record: 7 2-4-1 $268,756
3-year-old wins: Sham Stakes-$81k (Santa Anita).
2-year-old wins: Pinnacle Racing Maiden Stakes (Thirsk-GB).
Best Beyer: 100
Most Recent Races: 4/10 - 2nd in Wood Memorial-G1 (Aqueduct); 2/8 - 1st in Sham Stakes-$81k (Santa Anita).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Frankel got all the media attention here last year with favored Empire Maker, but he might have a more professional racehorse in 2004 with Master David. Regressed on the Beyer scale in the Wood Memorial, but you have to wonder if he was cranked up to 100% capacity in his final prep for the Derby. Thought he ran pretty well at Aqueduct as he had to rally over a speed-favoring track, and he should be sharper on Derby Day with that race under his belt. Earned a 100 Beyer at nine furlongs two back when defeating quality three-year-olds Borrego and Preachinatthebar so we know he can go fast. Sire was best known as a sprinter-miler type, but Master David has lots of stamina on the female side of his pedigree, and the feeling here is that he’ll handle the mile-and-a-quarter. Has never been off the board in his career. Play against Frankel at your own risk.


SONG OF THE SWORD
Graded Stakes Earnings: $208,000

Breeding: Unbridled's Song - Appealing Ms Sword (Crusader Sword)
Breeder: Joe Carroll & Ernie Paragallo
State: Florida
Owner: Paraneck Stable
Trainer: Jennifer Pedersen
Jockey: Norberto Arroyo
2004 Record: 5 3-1-1 $211,100
Career Record: 5 3-1-1 $211,100
3-year-old wins: Opt. Claiming (Aqueduct), AllowNw1x (Aqueduct); MSW (Aqueduct).
2-year-old wins: none.
Best Beyer: 103
Most Recent Races: 4/17 - 3rd in Lexington Stakes-G2 (Keeneland); 4/3 - 2nd in Illinois Derby-G2 (Hawthorne).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
This is a little horse with a pretty big heart. Made solid midrace moves in his last two prep races, and isn’t afraid to get a little dirt kicked in his face while racing on the rail. Will be trying to buck a ton of history as he doesn’t have any juvenile racing experience, but there’s no doubt he has talent. Would have been second in the Lexington in another stride or two, and I liked how he galloped out after the race. Owns solid Beyer Speed Figures, but has yet to break through in Graded Stakes competition, and there are some concerns as to whether is pedigree is geared to ten furlong racing. Should be a price in the Derby, and wouldn’t be the worst stab in the world.


PRO PRADO
Graded Stakes Earnings: $105,685

Breeding: El Prado - Mama's Pro (Proper Reality)
Breeder: Mrs. James Winn
State: Kentucky
Owner: Mrs. James Winn
Trainer: Robert Holthus
Jockey: J. McKee
2004 Record: 4 1-0-3 $160,000
Career Record: 7 3-0-3 $213,784
3-year-old wins: Mountain Valley-$50k (Oaklawn).
2-year-old wins: AllowNw2l (Keeneland); MSW (Turfway).
Best Beyer: 102
Most Recent Races: 4/10 - 3rd in Arkansas Derby-G2 (Oaklawn); 3/20 - 3rd in Rebel-$200k (Oaklawn); 2/28 - 3rd in Southwest-$100k (Oaklawn).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
Don't underestimate this runner. Although no match for The Cliff’s Edge or Smarty Jones thus far, he has quietly improved his Beyer Speed Figures in recent races, and always seems to be hanging around in the stretch. Defeated Pollard’s Vision last year at Keeneland, and has never finished worse than fourth in his career. Holthus barn is winning at a 23% clip this year, and his charge may get enough pace to adequately setup his late kick. Tomlinson Distance Rating projects that this trip may be pushing it, but Pro Prado figures to be ignored at the windows, and is certainly worth an action play. Needs to put a bit more oomph into his late rally, but he has a puncher’s chance.


EDDINGTON
Graded Stakes Earnings: $95,000

Breeding: Unbridled - Fashion Star (Chief's Crown)
Breeder: Carl Rosen Associates
State: Kentucky
Owner: Willmott Stables Inc.
Trainer: Mark Hennig
Jockey: Jerry Bailey
2004 Record: 5 2-1-2 $140,360
Career Record: 6 2-2-2 $149,560
3-year-old wins: AllowNW1x (Gulfstream), MSW (Gulfstream).
2-year-old wins: none.
Best Beyer: 101
Most Recent Race: 4/10 - Wood Memorial-G1 (Aqueduct); 3/20 - 3rd in Gotham-G3 (Aqueduct); 2/28 - 1st in AllowNW1x (Gulfstream).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
This strapping colt boasts a Derby pedigree, and has displayed considerable ability, but has had problems with his lead changes. Think he’s so big that it takes him awhile to switch over, and when he does, it takes him another few strides to get going again. Deserves a berth in the Derby, but the earnings situation doesn’t look too promising as of this writing. One of these days, he’s going to run a huge, winning race. Whether it will be in the Derby is another story.


ROCK HARD TEN
Graded Stakes Earnings: $90,000

Breeding: Kris S. - Tersa (Mr. Prospector)
Breeder: Madeleine Paulson
State: Kentucky
Owner: Mercedes Stables & Paulson
Trainer: Jason Orman
Jockey: undecided
2004 Record: 3 2-0-1 $147,600
Career Record: 3 2-0-1 $147,600
3-year-old wins: Allowance (Santa Anita); MSW (Santa Anita).
2-year-old wins: None.
Best Beyer: 103
Most Recent Race: 4/3 - 3rd in Santa Anita Derby-G1 (Santa Anita).
Next Race: 5/1 - Kentucky Derby-G1 (Churchill Downs).
The Skinny
He is a special racehorse. Thought he was much the best in the Santa Anita Derby. In only his third lifetime start, he raced four wide every step of the way, and actually made the lead in upper stretch before understandably tiring a bit in the lane. Galloped out nicely after the fact, and he has the pedigree and build to make a big impression on Derby day. Unfortunately, he is on the outside looking in as it pertains to earnings. He would definitely contend in the Derby, but if he doesn’t get in, keep an eye on him for the Preakness.