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HOLLYWOOD PARK -- Race #9 -- ANCIENT TREASURES (#6)
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The 8th race today is a maiden claiming $25,000 sprint at 6 furlongs with a par of 97. This seems to be a 2 horse race with HEIGHT OF SUMMER or ANCIENT TREASURES battling it out. HEIGHT OF SUMMER is coming off a string of sprints where he earned figures of 96-96+, 101-95 and 101-100. The 100 figure from last time out seems like a reason to go with him, and there will be a lot of people who will play him hoping for him to repeat that effort. I have to admit that I have no such hope for this guy. He's one of those animals that makes you want to jump off a building... He has had a 2-1/2 or 3-1/2 length lead with less than an 1/8th of a mile to go at least 3 times and yet he's still a maiden. He's finished 2nd in 5 of his 9 lifetime starts.
Also, the 100 figure from last time out happened to come when turning back from a route to a sprint (which is sometimes a major improvement "tweak" with young sprinters). The problem is, the "tweak" doesn't usually last for more than one or two starts and fades away quickly. The other problem with that 100 race was that it was at 5-1/2 furlongs and today's is back at a 1/2 furlong longer. I know you're wondering what could go wrong with only an extra 1/2 furlong but look at this guy's running line and you can see that he had a 2-1/2 length lead with only a 1/2 furlong to go last time and still LOST! As you can see, I don't have a lot of love for a horse like that.
ANCIENT TREASURES is the spot play today and fits the profile of what I like. He's lightly raced, only making his 4th start today. He sported a nice 98-96+ figure going 6-1/2 furlongs in his first lifetime start. I threw out the 2nd start and then he snapped back to a 99-98 last time out. Both of his good sprints are right around the 97 par and I would expect another big effort from him today. He has shown the ability to gain ground on the turn (that means trouble for HEIGHT OF SUMMER) and then he's shown the ability to grind away late (more trouble for HEIGHT OF SUMMER). Since HEIGHT OF SUMMER is due to regress a bit from that big figure last time out, my play is that he regresses right into the lap of ANCIENT TREASURES and then I am confident of which one of those two that wants to win more.
ANCIENT TREASURES is the win bet today. I think a lot of win money will flow onto HEIGHT OF SUMMER which should keep their win odds fairly similar. HEIGHT OF SUMMER is the most likely quinella candidate. REALLY SUSPECT actually has some early pace from a couple of starts that would push HEIGHT OF SUMMER early and he does have a 95+ and a 97+ final figure to go back to. The others would need some help to get into contention. Good luck.
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The 8th race today is a maiden claiming $25,000 sprint at 6 furlongs with a par of 97. This seems to be a 2 horse race with HEIGHT OF SUMMER or ANCIENT TREASURES battling it out. HEIGHT OF SUMMER is coming off a string of sprints where he earned figures of 96-96+, 101-95 and 101-100. The 100 figure from last time out seems like a reason to go with him, and there will be a lot of people who will play him hoping for him to repeat that effort. I have to admit that I have no such hope for this guy. He's one of those animals that makes you want to jump off a building... He has had a 2-1/2 or 3-1/2 length lead with less than an 1/8th of a mile to go at least 3 times and yet he's still a maiden. He's finished 2nd in 5 of his 9 lifetime starts.
Also, the 100 figure from last time out happened to come when turning back from a route to a sprint (which is sometimes a major improvement "tweak" with young sprinters). The problem is, the "tweak" doesn't usually last for more than one or two starts and fades away quickly. The other problem with that 100 race was that it was at 5-1/2 furlongs and today's is back at a 1/2 furlong longer. I know you're wondering what could go wrong with only an extra 1/2 furlong but look at this guy's running line and you can see that he had a 2-1/2 length lead with only a 1/2 furlong to go last time and still LOST! As you can see, I don't have a lot of love for a horse like that.
ANCIENT TREASURES is the spot play today and fits the profile of what I like. He's lightly raced, only making his 4th start today. He sported a nice 98-96+ figure going 6-1/2 furlongs in his first lifetime start. I threw out the 2nd start and then he snapped back to a 99-98 last time out. Both of his good sprints are right around the 97 par and I would expect another big effort from him today. He has shown the ability to gain ground on the turn (that means trouble for HEIGHT OF SUMMER) and then he's shown the ability to grind away late (more trouble for HEIGHT OF SUMMER). Since HEIGHT OF SUMMER is due to regress a bit from that big figure last time out, my play is that he regresses right into the lap of ANCIENT TREASURES and then I am confident of which one of those two that wants to win more.
ANCIENT TREASURES is the win bet today. I think a lot of win money will flow onto HEIGHT OF SUMMER which should keep their win odds fairly similar. HEIGHT OF SUMMER is the most likely quinella candidate. REALLY SUSPECT actually has some early pace from a couple of starts that would push HEIGHT OF SUMMER early and he does have a 95+ and a 97+ final figure to go back to. The others would need some help to get into contention. Good luck.
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