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**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2019, 08:36 PM

Derby Contenders - Part I
April 28, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

This week, Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will preview the 2019 Kentucky Derby on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 3 with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the Run for the Roses. On both May 3 and May 4, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year. To purchase Anthony Stabile products, click here!

The first of our four-part Kentucky Derby preview will focus on the horses who earned their way into the Kentucky Derby starting gate by way of the Arkansas or California prep races.

Three of them – Game Winner, Roadster and Improbable - are trained by five-time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert while the other two are conditioned by a couple of fellow Hall of Fame trainers looking for their first win in the race, Omaha Beach for Richard Mandella and Long Range Toddy from the Steve Asmussen barn.

The likely favorite in the Derby, Omaha Beach came in to the year having never even run on the dirt. He finished third in his debut then second in his two subsequent starts in turf races around two turns as a juvenile before missing by a half-length in his dirt debut going a flat mile in his first start of this year. He’s won three straight races since.

Omaha Beach broke his maiden in his lone sprint try, romping by nine lengths in the slop at Santa Anita going seven panels before Mandella shipped him to Arkansas for the Rebel.

Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith climbed aboard Omaha Beach for the first time in the Rebel. Omaha Beach pressed the pace from the start and found himself on the lead by the time they left the clubhouse turn. He was able to set sensible fractions before opening up a two-length lead in the lane and holding off Game Winner in a thrilling deep-stretch duel.

Mandella brought Omaha Beach back to Oaklawn for the G1 Arkansas Derby for a bout with another Baffert for in Improbable. It poured down rain the days prior and of the Arkansas Derby and Omaha Beach loved the sloppy ground again. In a trip reminiscent to the one in the Rebel, he broke, pressed and made the lead soon after straightening down the backstretch and galloped along to the turn before Improbable came calling but never got closer than a length, the final margin of victory.

Smith, who could have ridden others in here, announced he would stay with Omaha Beach when the final preps had been run and will be looking for his third Derby tally having scored with longshot Giacomo in 2005 and last year with the Justify, the betting favorite.

2018 Eclipse Award winner for Outstanding Two-Year-Old Game Winner will be one of the three runners trying to get Baffert his record-tying sixth Kentucky Derby winner. His prior winners were three who eventually failed in their Triple Crown bids - Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998 and War Emblem in 2002 – along with the two who succeeded, American Pharoah in 2015 and last year with Justify.

An undefeated, 2018 season that included G1 wins in the Del Mar Futurity, American Pharoah at Santa Anita and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill, after a debut win at Del Mar, Game Winner entered this year as the winter book favorite for the Derby.

Game Winner’s plans were altered almost immediately after he began preparing for his return when the San Felipe was cancelled due to surface issues and such at Santa Anita. He was set to face off with stablemate Improbable in that heat. Baffert opted to ship both to the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn, a race that was run in divisions due to an overflow of entries, thus separating the two.

In his Rebel, Game Winner fell towards the back of the field and was in a similar position as to the one he rallied from to gut out his win in the Juvenile some four-and-a-half months earlier. The result was different in Arkansas, however, as he fell a nose short of Omaha Beach after the stretch duel.

Back home in California for the G1 Santa Anita Derby just three weeks later, Game Winner and his regular rider Joel Rosario, who won this in 2013 with Orb, broke a bit sharper and was more forwardly paced but still raced wide as he had in the Rebel. He made the lead off of the far turn but couldn’t hold off Roadster in the very late stages and finished second.

While they’ve never faced off, Improbable and Game Winner can be linked in several ways. Improbable was also perfect as a two-year-old. He managed to win by just a neck in his sprint debut at Santa Anita a few hours before Game Winner’s romp in the American Pharoah, then showed dominance when stretching out to take the Street Sense at Churchill by over seven lengths going a mile on B.C. Friday several races before the Juvenile. He took down his biggest win of the season when he romped by over five lengths in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity going 1 1 /16 miles in early December.

Like Game Winner, Improbable has finished second in both of his starts this year. He even got beat in his own division of the Rebel when he was kept extremely wide throughout before making the lead off of the turn only to get snatched on the line by Long Range Toddy.

Baffert made a rider change to Jose Ortiz, marking the first time the pair would team up, and put a pair of blinkers on Improbable for the Arkansas Derby. Breaking from the rail, he was taken off the pace despite the equipment change and post draw and was once again wide on the far turn. Still, he had dead aim on Omaha Beach but could not make up the length or so needed to get the money for over a quarter-mile.

Improbable will get another rider change for the Derby as Jose Ortiz committed to ride Tacitus. His brother, Irad Ortiz, Jr. will have the mount.

Oddly enough, Roadster is the least seasoned of the Baffert trio and figures to be the biggest price on the tote board of the three in spite being the only one of them to win this season.

Like a handful of SoCal juveniles last year, Roadster turned in an eye-catching debut tally early on in the season, romping by over four-lengths as the 4-5 chalk in a late July race at Del Mar. He disappointed some five weeks later when he finished two lengths behind Game Winner when third in the Del Mar Futurity before being laid up for almost six months.

Roadster returned in an entry level allowance/optional claimer on March 1. Sent off as the second choice at 4-5 (you read that correctly) he sat just off the early pace before making the lead and defeating the chalk by over two lengths.

In the Santa Anita Derby, Roadster was taken a bit more considerably off of the pace and launched a move on the far turn that eventually got him past game winner just before the wire to win by a half-length.

Perhaps the real action for Roadster came off of the track when Smith, his pilot in all of his starts, decided to stick with Omaha Beach, leading Baffert to grab a guy considered by many to be one of the top riders in Kentucky, Florent Geroux.

Long Range Toddy hasn’t had more six weeks between starts in an eight-race career that began at Remington Park on the final day of August last year. After finishing in a dead-heat for fourth in that sprint, he finished off his juvenile season with three consecutive wins, including both the Clevor Trevor going seven furlongs and the Springboard Mile where he won by a head and earned his first Derby points in the process.

After making his first four starts at Remington, Long Range Toddy made all four of his starts this year at Oaklawn, finishing a tough-luck second in the Smarty Jones before making up some ground late to be third in a strangely run edition of the G3 Southwest.

Rider Jon Court climbed aboard for the first time in the Rebel and gave what was one of the best rides in a Derby prep race one could give when Long Range Toddy broke on the lead before Court eased him off the pace and to the outside. He came and got Improbable in the last few jumps to get the money, points and lock up a Derby berth all at once.

In the Arkansas Derby, Long Range Toddy did not do much running. He broke alertly and pressed the pace a bit but never seemed to grab hold of the track and finished a non-threatening fifth.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2019, 08:38 PM

Lowe moves from Premier to track
April 23, 2019
By The Associated Press

STAMFORD, Conn. (AP) Rebecca Lowe is making a one-weekend switch from the Premier League horse race to actual equines.

Lowe will co-host NBC's coverage of the Kentucky Derby on May 4 with Mike Tirico, the network said Tuesday. She also will co-host the Kentucky Oaks on NBCSN on May 3, when she anchors the network's Premier League show from Churchill Downs in Louisville during halftime of Everton's match against Burnley.

Lowe said Monday she had never been heavily involved in racing coverage during her time in her native Britain. NBC previously used her during Olympics coverage of the Rio Games in 2016 and of Winter Games in 2014 and last year.

Tirico co-anchored NBC's coverage last year with Bob Costas, who left the network.

During her preparation for the Derby, Lowe went to Los Angeles to interview Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

Still, part of her internal focus will be on the Premier League race: Seeking its first league title since 1990, Liverpool leads Manchester City by two points. Liverpool has three games left and Manchester City four, including a derby Wednesday at Manchester United.

''I picked Liverpool and as I don't like to be wrong, I won't change now, in case I back City to win it and then I'm double wrong if Liverpool do,'' she said.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2019, 08:41 PM

Jockey suspended for whipping rider
April 19, 2019
By The Associated Press

HOT SPRINGS, Ark. (AP) A jockey has been suspended 60 days for misusing his whip - not on a horse - but on another rider in a race at an Arkansas track.

A stewards' ruling posted Thursday on the Association of Racing Commissioners International website alleges that David Cohen ''deliberately'' whipped fellow jockey Edgar Morales several times during the eighth race at Oaklawn Park on April 6.

Cohen and his horse Bolita Boyz were forced wide into the stretch by Morales and No Funny Biz. The two raced side-by-side through the stretch, with Cohen whipping his mount left-handed and apparently also striking Morales.

Neither horse won the race.

Upon returning to the jockeys' room, the ruling said that Morales confronted Cohen, telling him, ''You whipped me more than you did your horse.'' Morales testified at a hearing that Cohen replied, ''Be patient and don't take me wide.''

Morales testified he had four welts on his right thigh from Cohen's whip. Although jockeys can be accidentally struck by a whip in a race, Morales told stewards that ''it was not an accident, he meant to do it.''

According to the ruling, Cohen said he wouldn't deliberately hit another jockey with his whip and that if it happened it was accidental.

The ruling said other riders and valets testified they overheard a discussion in the jockeys' room and that they considered Cohen's admission as indicative of a deliberate action rather than being accidental.

The stewards agreed with Morales after finding that Cohen's action was deliberate and violated multiple rules. The stewards said Cohen's actions jeopardized the safety of other jockeys and horses in the race.

Cohen's suspension runs from April 27 to June 25.

He was earlier suspended for April 25 and 26 by the stewards as the result of careless riding in the eighth race at Oaklawn on April 7.

His agent, Bill Castle, is appealing both suspensions.

Cohen is second in the Oaklawn jockeys' standings, with 59 wins from 258 mounts.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2019, 08:42 PM

Churchill Downs enacts improvements
April 18, 2019
By The Associated Press

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) Churchill Downs will invest $8 million for an on-site equine medical center as part of several other measures to improve safety for horses and riders.

The medical center is expected to open next March and will include a quarantine facility. Next month's Kentucky Derby will have a temporary medical center. The track's parent company, Churchill Downs Incorporated, will also hire an equine medical director to oversee safety at its facilities.

The historic track will also install camera surveillance with other improvements to the backside area.

Earlier Thursday, Churchill Downs and several other tracks announced they would phase out use of the anti-bleeding medication Lasix for horses within 24 hours of racing. The track later announced other initiatives, including advocating for additional equine medication reforms; the formation of an Office of Racing Integrity that will to develop uniformed medication and safety standards; formalizing concussion protocol for jockey safety; and adopting international standards for riding crop use.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2019, 12:11 AM

With Kentucky Derby betting favorites winning the last six “Run for the Roses”, 2019 might finally be the year that the post-time favorite disappoints and the plus-money payouts return – the exact reason horse racing bettors look forward to the Kentucky Derby every single year.

Here’s a horse-by-horse betting breakdown, race predictions and picks, and the best racing bets for this Saturday’s Kentucky Derby odds:

1. War of Will (Jockey – Tyler Gaffalione, 20/1): This long shot won three in a row within the graded stakes ranks before a very disappointing effort in the Louisiana Derby last time out. He had an excuse and was a non-factor early after an awkward step. Since that loss, his workouts have been fast and he will try to be forwardly placed. Thankfully, he has enough early speed to overcome the difficult inside post.

2. Tax (Junior Alvarado, 20/1): He ran second best to the eventual Wood Memorial Winner in Tacitus in his most recent showing. He’s another runner that likes to be close to the front end, and has never been farther back than third in any start during his four career races. Speed wise, he’s quick, but it was only four starts ago that he was claimed while racing against maiden company. If he can take advantage of the inside post, he should be placed within the first group of runners entering the first turn.

3. By My Standards (Gabriel Saez, 20/1): He’s coming off a win in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby producing the upset at 22/1 odds. He did well in his first start versus stakes competition, albeit a very weak field. Competing against some of the top horses with a lack of experience will be a tough task for this runner, who could find himself in a good position to take advantage of an advantageous trip.

4. Gray Magician (Drayden Van Dyke, 50/1): This long shot finished second by three quarters of a length in the UAE Derby. His only win in eight career starts came in a six-furlong sprint against maiden company at Del Mar. In his only graded stakes race, he was not competitive and does not look like he will have much of an impact in the Kentucky Derby at all.

5. Improbable (Irad Ortiz Jr., 6/1): He is arguably trainer Bob Baffert’s best shot at another Derby win as he goes for back-to-back victories and his sixth “Run for the Roses” title. He will likely attempt to work out a stalking trip and has shown a nice late-closing kick. He has been the betting favorite in four of his five career races and will get a lot of attention at the Kentucky Derby betting windows this Saturday. He’s a definite must-have on top and in all slots for your exotic wagers.

FIND THE LATEST KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS AND FANTASTIC BETTING BONUSES AT TWINSPIRES!
6. Vekoma (Javier Castellano, 20/1): Jockey Javier Castellano is 0 for 12 in the Kentucky Derby with his best finish coming onboard Audible, who finished third last year. This runner with a very unorthodox racing style is coming off a win in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes by three and one quarter lengths on April 6. He’s racing his best when stalking the pace and should be put in a good position to make a competitive run in the deep stretch.

7. Maximum Security (Luis Saez, 10/1): He’s coming off an impressive victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby to remain undefeated through four career starts. Speed wise, he’s put forth some very impressive times and has shown a good amount of early speed, which should be useful in securing the front end early. He must avoid a potential pace duel upfront but stay close to the pace where his best efforts have been.

8. Tacitus (Jose Ortiz, 10/1): He has won three straight races and has shown a noticeable improvement speed wise with each career start. With only four career starts, he’s one of the most lightly-raced colts. His racing versatility is a huge asset and he looks to thrive off the gruelling Kentucky Derby distance.

9. Plus Que Parfait (Ricardo Santana Jr., 30/1): He recently won the UAE Derby but outside of that start, has been very disappointing - especially on North American soil where he was not competitive within the graded-stakes ranks. He’s a runner that should benefit from the speed upfront early and attempt to work out a trip from mid-pack. Although, he would need a lot of things to go his way in order to have a shot to hit the board.

10. Cutting Humor (Corey Lanerie, 30/1): He worked out a nice stalking trip to get the job done in the Sunland Derby. Although he added a graded-stakes win to his resume, the field was weak and, when compared to a lot of the other times in races at the same distance, he seems to be a bit slow.

11. Haikal (Rajiv Maragh, 30/1): He gets out very slow, spotting the field as many as 14 lengths in his last two races. With his closing style, he’s a runner that really benefits from the quick early fractions and perhaps a speed duel up front. He should take well to the added furlongs of the Kentucky Derby and looms as a long shot, who might be able to hit the board closing late at a nice price.

12. Omaha Beach (Mike Smith, 4/1): The Kentucky Derby morning line favorite draws a really good post position, and his early speed should see this runner involved in the pace scenario early. He’s won three straight races and was impressive in the slop at the Arkansas Derby over Improbable. Although he isn’t the quickest of runners, he has progressed nicely and looms as the one to beat as an early Kentucky Derby odds betting favorite.

13. Code of Honor (John Velazquez, 15/1): He’s coming off a third place finish in the Florida Derby after getting bumped at the start. The Florida Derby was an odd race with Maximum Security left alone uncontested on the front end. Despite Maximum Security having his way on the front end, Code of Honor showed a nice late-closing kick off easy fractions. Look for him to be positioned well to run down the leaders in the deep stretch.

14. Win Win Win (Julian Pimentel, 15/1): He’s one of only a few horses with a closing style and is another that looks like he will benefit from the faster early fractions. The post position does not deter him and he will definitely be spotting the field a lot of early lengths. The added couple of furlongs of the Derby look advantageous to him and he’s another that should be flying late in deep stretch.

15. Master Fencer (Julien Leparoux, 50/1): This is the first ever Japanese-bred horse to try its luck in the Kentucky Derby. He has two wins in three career starts and has had almost a week in Louisville to prep for the change of scenery and get adjusted to the new track. He is a long shot for a reason and does not look like he will at any point be a factor on the first Saturday in May.

16. Game Winner (Joel Rosario, 5/1): He’s been a beaten favorite in both of his 2019 career races, however, he narrowly missed finishing second in both. He draws a very difficult post position for a horse that isn’t a true closer or one that doesn’t seem to posses a lot of early speed. This outside post may force him farther back than ideal. Without seeing experience closing or off a troubled trip, the price appears too short.

17. Roadster (Florent Geroux, 6/1): He’s another runner that was hoping for a better post position draw as he may be forced very wide early on the first turn, due to the outside post and his lack of early speed. He loses the services of jockey Mike Smith to Omaha Beach, and while this is not the worst jockey change, it’s still a huge disadvantage losing Smith, who has been on board in all of his four career starts. It’s tough to find complaints with this colt who has looked very good in all of his California races.

18. Long Range Toddy (Jon Court, 30/1): He is coming off a disappointing effort in the Arkansas Derby, racing over a sloppy track. He didn’t take well to the off track and being forced wide, but he has put forth some good efforts. It will be difficult to navigate out of the outside post as a runner not possessing much early speed or showcasing any type of a solid late-closing kick.

19. Spinoff (Manny Franco, 30/1): The best part of this runner is his training. It’s very rare you see a Todd Pletcher horse with such high morning line odds attached. He’s lightly raced and has only made two starts since August and it’s very possible he’s sitting on a big race as his times have steadily been improving. He’s taken well to the early bumping in his most recent two races, which preps him for what’s to come in the Kentucky Derby.

20. Country House (Flavian Prat, 30/1): If any horse is going to draw the outside and not be affected by it, then it would be this runner who starts very slowly and has shown a decent late-closing kick. He will be hoping for a pace meltdown up front to track down tired runners late. He’s worthy of a closer look into rounding out your superfecta wagers.

Also Eligible: Bodexpress (30/1)

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2019, 12:13 AM

Derby Contenders - Part 2
May 1, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

The second of our four-part Kentucky Derby preview will focus on the horses who earned their way into the Kentucky Derby starting gate by way of New York and Kentucky, primarily, led by the highest points-earner on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, Tacitus.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who is seeking his first win in the Derby, Tacitus finished fourth in his debut going 1 1/16 miles at Belmont in early October before breaking his maiden going a mile at Aqueduct one month later in his two starts last year. He showed tactical speed in both efforts just off a couple of honest paces, especially in the early going.

After a winter in which Mott had to plot the course for several sophomores pointed towards Louisville, he decided to bring Tacitus back in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby in early March. Tampa Bay’s racing surface has historically been one of the trickiest and quirkiest around and figured to provide a solid acid-test for a horse with just two starts under his belt. Tacitus answered the call.

Under his regular rider Jose Ortiz, Tacitus was much farther off the pace than usual from post 10 and faced a double-digit length deficit when the field made its way to the far turn. He began to launch a bid with a little over a quarter of a mile to go and passed horses swiftly while racing along the inside. He made the lead in deep stretch and held off a couple rallying with him to score by just over a length at just under 9-1.

Tacitus returned to the site of his maiden tally four weeks later to run in the G2 Wood Memorial.
The post time favorite at 5-2 from post 3, Tacitus broke alertly but quickly encountered traffic trouble on the first turn when the longshot front-runner crossed over from his outside draw and caused a chain reaction that led to several runners getting bounced around and bumped.

Tacitus found himself in fourth going down the backstretch of the Wood Memorial behind a speed duel some seven or eight lengths ahead of him. Ortiz waited until the far turn to launch his bid, this time going outside of the front runners, and Tacitus finally got to the lead in mid-stretch before drawing away to win by a similar margin to the one in his prior start.

Like Tacitus, Vekoma will be making just his fifth start in the Run for the Roses, for trainer George Weaver, who’ll give Javier Castellano a leg up once again in the Derby.

Vekoma broke his maiden going six furlongs at Belmont in his debut by almost two lengths, stopping the clock in a sparkling 1:08 4/5, back in late September. Weaver stretched him out and tried him in stakes company on Breeders’ Cup weekend at Aqueduct where he won the G3 Nahua going a mile in almost identical fashion as his maiden score.

Nearly four months later, Vekoma made his seasonal bow in the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. It would be his first try around two turns, something several people thought would be an issue for him. His effort did nothing to answer those questions.

Perfectly placed behind a sharp early pace in fourth, Vekoma did little running in the second half of the Fountain of Youth going 1 1/16 miles around the short stretch in those races at Gulfstream and actually lost ground in the late stages where he ultimately finished third nearly three lengths behind the winner.

Weaver changed riders to Castellano for his final prep, the G2 Blue Grass, where Vekoma put the two-turns question to rest. Placed just off of the early pace by Castellano, Vekoma made the lead midway on the far turn then accelerated away nicely through the stretch to win by an expanding 3 ½ lengths.

Both his margin of victory and awkward running action had people talking about Vekoma after the Blue Grass, a race many felt was the most authoritative prep-effort put forth this season.

Win Win Win has finished behind both Tacitus and Vekoma in his last two starts, respectively, though there are some out there that were more enamored with his effort as opposed to the winner’s in the Blue Grass.

Trained by Mike Trombetta, whose lone Derby starter prior to this year, Sweetnorthernsaint, was the lukewarm favorite back in 2006, Win Win Win made his first four starts in sprints, with the first three coming at Laurel near the trainer’s mid-Atlantic base.

A couple of wins followed by a second in a minor-stakes in Maryland as a juvenile were followed by a sensational, track and stakes record effort in the seven-furlong Pasco at Tampa Bay Downs, where Win Win Win stopped the clock in 1:20 4/5. The performance earned him a chance to get on the Derby Trail.

In the Tampa Bay Derby, Trombetta replaced regular rider Julian Pimentel with Irad Ortiz, Jr. despite Pimentel’s performance on Win Win Win. He was never far from Tacitus throughout but was eventually forced five-wide on the far turn and lost some ground before rallying to get third.

In the Blue Grass, Win Win Win had just one on his thirteen rivals beat in the early running and passed most of the them before the far turn before finding a good deal of traffic trouble/ He was bumped a couple of times then forced to steady a bit before resuming his rally in deep stretch when Vekoma was long gone. He managed a runner-up performance that got him into this spot.

With Ortiz opting to ride Improbable in the Derby, Trombetta has given the mount on Win Win Win back to Pimentel.

Tax earned every one of his 52 Derby points at the Big A for trainer Danny Gargan, who claimed him just his second start out of a $50 maiden claimer victory going 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland, last October. Gargan ran him back six weeks later in the G2 Remsen at nine furlongs and Tax rewarded his faith with a solid third place finish less than three lengths behind the winner.

Two months later in the G3 Withers going the same distance as the Remsen, Tax stumbled a bit at the start under his new rider Junior Alvarado but recovered quickly and took advantage of the inside bias that day at Aqueduct and never left the rail. The hole opened up along the inside in mid-stretch and after briefly battling with a couple of rivals, Tax edged away and held off a re-rally from the pacesetting Not That Brady to score by just a head.

Not wanting to cut back to the one-turn mile distance of the G3 Gotham, Tax had another brief freshening and returned two months later in the Wood Memorial. Leaving the gate from post 1 again, Tax was one of those bothered going into the first turn and was actually considered to be one of the culprits by some for some dramatic actions taken by his rider going into the clubhouse turn run. Tax moved in tandem with Tacitus on the turn and mustered a nice rally but couldn’t stay with the winner in the final stages.

Speaking of Aqueduct, the Derby will be the first start Haikal makes outside of the South Ozone Park, NY oval for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.

Haikal flew home through the stretch to miss by just a neck while racing wide in his November debut before riding the rail to victory when cutting back to six furlongs under Rajiv Maragh for the first time some five weeks later.

Haikal made his stakes debut in the seven-furlong Jimmy Winkfield where Maragh took advantage of a pronounced inside bias and rallied him up the rail again to win by a neck.

Stretching out in the Gotham, Haikal went from looking like a prototypical, one-run closer to a racehorse when he took advantage of a pace meltdown to get up by a length. The Gotham win not only earned him 50 points but showed some people his ability to listen to his rider and alter course effectively, two things one-run closers often cannot do.

Haikal still had the two-turn question to answer and certainly proved he could handle it in the Wood Memorial, where his lack of early speed may have actually helped his cause going into the turn because he didn’t get into any trouble while others did. That can be taken as a negative as well when you consider the fact that the top two were affected and Haikal was only able to manage a third-place finish, four lengths behind Tacitus.

Still, the Haikal camp has to be happy with the fact that the distance of the Wood Memorial didn’t seem to hinder him. He was still making up ground at the end of the nine furlongs and in fact is one of only horse pointing to the Derby who can say he’s improved position in the second portion of all of his starts.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2019, 12:15 AM

Derby Contenders - Part 3
April 29, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

The third of our four-part Kentucky Derby preview will focus on the horses who earned their way into the Kentucky Derby starting gate by way of the Fair Grounds and Sunland Park.

Four runners – By My Standards, War of Will, Spinoff and Country House – exit the G2 Louisiana Derby, run six weeks before the Run for the Roses while Cutting Humor won the G3 Sunland Derby the very next day.

War of Will went into the La. Derby a perfect three-for-three on the dirt for trainer Mark Casse and rider Tyler Gaffalione.

After starting out winless in four starts on turf, with solid efforts in G1 races like the Summer at Woodbine and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Churchill, Casse switched War of Will to the dirt and ended his juvenile season with a five-length romp in the slop beneath the twin spires.

Sent to Casse’s Fair Grounds string for his winter campaign, War of Will came out firing, rolling to a four-length tally in the G3 LeComte despite a wide trip and a bit of a more workmanlike, two-plus length victory in the G2 Risen Star that earned him the bulk of his 60 points.

The 4-5 favorite in the La. Derby, War of Will was awful. He broke awkwardly, appeared to be lame both in the race and afterwards and was said to have a soft tissue issue after a ninth-place finish.

War of Will has reportedly recovered nicely but would need a remarkable turn around and shake the notion that Louisiana is not the place to prep a Derby horse as few have had any success in these Triple Crown races in recent memory.

By My Standards upset the proverbial applecart in a big way in the Louisiana Derby for Bret Calhoun at over 22-1, earning all of his Derby points with one big effort.

Winless in two starts last year and his first this year, By My Standards had already tried two turns twice down in the bayou before breaking his maiden in his fourth try under regular rider Gabriel Saez. He overcame some trouble at the start and a wide trip to get out of the maiden ranks and was apparently good enough for Calhoun to send hi up against stakes company.

In the La. Derby, By My Standards couldn’t have scripted a better trip. Fourth early behind honest early fractions, Saez moved him into the clear off of the turn before the two grinded their way to the lead in the late stages to win by a little less than a length.

Since that score, By My Standards has been a bit of a buzz/wiseguy horse having done all of his prep work at Churchill Downs for over a month and is apparently getting over the ground well.

Country House used a couple of starts last year to find his way for trainer Bill Mott, who finally got him out of the maiden ranks in his seasonal bow at Gulfstream going 1 1.16 miles after breaking poorly and making up a ton of ground late to win by a widening three-and-a-half-lengths.

Country House shipped for the Risen Star off of that tally and after breaking slowly again, passed most of his rivals before stalling a bit when finishing second, more than two lengths behind War of Will.

He gave it another go in the La. Derby where he finished fourth after a slow but better break, wide trip and bit of a premature move on the far turn. The real story that day was his studish behavior in the paddock prior to the race. He was acting up and thinking more about the fillies that were in the paddock prior to his race for the Oaks than he was running in that Derby.

Mott seemed hellbent on getting Country House to the Derby and sent him to Oaklawn Park just three weeks later for the G1 Arkansas Derby. After a good break, he settled towards the rear of the field over the sloppy track and secured a third-place finish and enough points to run in this.

With Luis Saez riding Maximum Security and Joel Rosario on Game Winner, Mott has chosen Flavien Prat to ride Country House with the hope that he fits his one-run style.

Trainer Todd Pletcher, a two-time Derby winner having saddled Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming two years ago, comes into this Derby in a unique position for him as his two runners, Spinoff and Cutting Humor, figure to be longshots.

Spinoff has made just four starts in a career that has spanned over 10 months. After breaking his maiden at Gulfstream at the end of June last year, Spinoff shipped to Saratoga and finished third in the G2 Saratoga Special behind multiple graded stakes winner Call Paul.

Away from the races for over six months, Spinoff returned in a mile and forty-yard allowance/optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs, where he made quick work of four rivals, winning by almost a dozen lengths.

Back in against stakes company last out in the La. Derby, Spinoff raced alongside the winner most of the way and actually got the jump on him on the far turn but couldn’t stave him off in the final sixteenth of a mile. Manny Franco will ride for the first time as John Velazquez has committed to ride Code of Honor.

Cutting Humor still needs a rider as Velazquez has been his partner for four of his six starts. After a second-place finish in his debut at Belmont and third place finish on the stretch out at Keeneland, Cutting Humor broke his maiden going a two-turn mile at Gulfstream Park West last fall when blinkers were added.

Two months later, Velazquez climbed back aboard for the first time since his debut and piloted Cutting Humor to a runner-up performance behind Derby-bubble horse Bourbon War.

Pletcher decided to ship Cutting Humor to Oaklawn for the G3 Southwest. Sent off as the 2-1 chalk, Cutting Humor never seemed comfortable over the track and couldn’t work out a trip in an oddly run race and finished a non-threatening seventh.

Still in search of Derby points, Cutting Humor found his way to Sunland Park for its Derby. Bet down to 2-1 yet again, this time he rewarded his backers, sitting a few lengths behind a fast pace before making the lead at the top of the stretch and holding off Anothertwistafate in the final yards to win by a neck.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2019, 12:18 AM

B]Derby Contenders - Part 4
April 30, 2019
By Anthony Stabile
[/B]
The final of our four-part Kentucky Derby preview will focus on the horses who earned their way into the Kentucky Derby starting gate by way of Gulfstream Park and the international points races offered in the Middle East and Asia.

Maximum Security is undefeated in four starts and is the only horse this year in the Derby that has yet to lose a race, a remarkable note when you consider the fact that he began his career in a $16K maiden claiming event in late December at Gulfstream, where he has made all of his starts.

Trained by Jason Servis, Maximum Security took them gate-to-wire that afternoon, winning by nearly 10 lengths going 6 ½ furlongs. He returned five weeks later in a six-furlong starter allowance/optional claimer and romped by over six lengths from just off the pace over a muddy track.

Same conditions, same results in late February when he won by over 18 lengths over a fast track going seven furlongs and earning the highest Beyer Speed Figure in this year’s Derby field with a 102. Servis decided to test him for stamina and class and pointed him towards the G1 Florida Derby going nine furlongs in late March.

Luis Saez climbed aboard Maximum Security for the first time in the Florida Derby. There was some other speed signed on for the event, namely the highly regarded Hidden Scroll. But when the rumors that they were going to rate Hidden Scroll proved true a few jumps out of the gate, Saez took advantage and let his stretching out sprinter use his speed.

Maximum Security didn’t have to go very fast early on yet still found himself loose on the front end. After a half that went just under :49 seconds, a pedestrian pace at Gulfstream for this caliber of horses, it was all but over. He faced a brief rally from the maiden Bodexpress, currently first on the AE list to get into the Derby, but quickly drew away from him on the turn and never faced a challenge through the stretch, winning by three-and-a-half lengths.

Maximum Security figures to be the pacesetter once again in the Derby and could also serve as an incidental “rabbit” for Game Winner as they are owned by the same connections.

Code of Honor let you know he was a good one right from the start of his career when he took his debut in gate-to-wire fashion in a Saratoga sprint last August for his Hall of Fame trainer and winner of the 2013 Derby with Orb, Shug McGaughey. It’s not only rare for the trainer to win first time out but with speed and dirt sprinting is like finding a dragon egg.

So impressive was Code of Honor in his debut, McGaughey entered him next in the Prestigious G1 Champagne at Belmont. Code of Honor seemingly lost all chance at the start when he stumbled badly leaving the gate, taking away his tactical speed and leaving him behind nine rivals. He recovered nicely and launched a strong but wide rally on the far turn to finish second, just three-lengths behind the front-running winner.

Code of Honor was entered in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but forced to scratch when he fell ill the week of the race. It was decided to give him some time and take him straight to Florida where he returned in the early January Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream. The 4-5 favorite, he couldn’t have been more disappointing/ He made a very brief move approaching the far turn but was never really a factor and finished a well-beaten fourth.

McGaughey pressed on to the G2 Fountain of Youth with Code of Honor, hoping the prior effort was just a case of his charge needing to knock the rust off. Shug was right. Under a brilliant ride by John Velazquez, a two time Derby winner with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Always Dreaming in 2017, he saved ground behind a blazing pace in fourth, made a move to the lead off of the far turn in the short stretch run of the event and was able to hold on by three-quarters of a length.

As well as it set up for Code of Honor in the Fountain of Youth, the Florida Derby pace scenario was a nightmare, especially after he was bumped at the start. He was eighth in the early running, launched a run on the turn and again did a bit of running in deep stretch but he never really threatened in third, over six lengths behind the winner.

Plus Que Parfait is the rare American-based runner that had to go to Dubai to earn his Derby points on a desert night in March for trainer Brendan Walsh.

Last season, Plus Que Parfait finished third in his first two starts, his first on turf then at Churchill going a mile, before breaking his maiden around two turns at Keeneland. It was a strong enough effort to lead him to the G2 KJC where he made a big move from off the pace while wide over an inside, speed-biased sloppy track to miss by just a neck while finishing second.

This season, Plus Que Parfait began his season at the Fair Grounds with a decent effort in the G3 LeComte where he stumbled at the start and was very wide subsequently. It was enough of a trip for the public to send him off at 6-1 behind big favorite War of Will in the G2 Risen Star. He didn’t run a step in an absolute head-scratcher, beating home just one of his 13 rivals while beaten over 20 lengths.

A pair of blinkers and trip to the G2 U.A.E. Derby were up next for Plus Que Parfait. In a reversion of tactics, he found himself on the lead early on and stayed there, battling through the lane to hold on by almost a length at an about distance of a mile and three sixteenths under Jose Ortiz, who will ride Tacitus in the Derby. Ricardo Santana, Jr., his pilot in his maiden tally, rides in here.

Gray Magician was a bang-up second in Dubai and will be making his ninth start in the Derby for trainer Peter Miller who will give Drayden Van Dyke a leg up for the first time.

Gray Magician broke his maiden in his fourth start and first for Miller last year to close out his juvenile campaign before finishing fourth in the G3 Sham at Santa Anita to start this season. After a poor effort in the slop in an allowance/optional claimer, he shipped to Laurel just over two weeks later for the Miracle Wood where he finished second, over four lengths behind mid-Atlantic star Alwaysmining, a Preakness candidate.

In Dubai, Gray Magician and his rider that day, Joel Rosario, bided their time early on before launching a serious bid once the field entered the stretch but couldn’t reach the winner.

The mystery horse in this year’s Derby is the Japanese-bred import, Master Fencer, who’ll get French-born but locally based Julien Leparoux to ride.

Master Fencer won his last of three starts in 2018 and first of this year from six career starts and earned his points via a fourth-place finish in the Hyacinth and second-place effort last out in the Fukuryu last out for trainer Koichi Tsunoda.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2019, 12:20 AM

KD favorite Omaha Beach scratched
May 1, 2019
By The Associated Press

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) Suddenly, the Kentucky Derby is wide open.

Favorite Omaha Beach was scratched because of a breathing problem Wednesday night, leaving a pair of Hall of Famers on the sideline - trainer Richard Mandella and jockey Mike Smith.

Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia revised the morning line to make Game Winner the 9-2 favorite for the 1 1/4-mile race Saturday.

Improbable and Roadster were installed as the co-second choices at 5-1, giving five-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert the top three choices in the 20-horse field.

Mandella told The Associated Press that Omaha Beach developed a cough and a subsequent veterinary exam showed the colt has an entrapped epiglottis. It's generally not life- or career-threatening and is typically corrected with minor surgery.

''It's been a devastating thing, but we have to do what's right for the horse,'' said Mandella, who has never won the Derby with six previous starters.

The trainer said Omaha Beach will have surgery in Kentucky in the next few days and will be sidelined for two to three weeks. The ordeal will knock him off the Triple Crown trail.

''It's such a disappointment, but we'll fight again,'' Mandella told the AP. ''We won't be out a long time.''

The scratch was another blow to cancer survivor Rick Porter, the colt's 78-year-old owner. He has twice finished second in the Derby, in 2007 with Hard Spun and the following year with filly Eight Belles, who broke her ankles past the finish line and had to be euthanized.

''He's a great sport,'' Mandella said. ''I've got very good support.''

Omaha Beach had been the 4-1 early favorite.

Mandella's dry sense of humor came out when he said, ''My wife has my leg tied down so I can't jump out of the window.''

Smith had chosen to ride Omaha Beach instead of Roadster and now he won't have a chance to win the Derby for the second straight year. He rode Justify to victory last year.

''I'm a little bummed out, but the horse is OK and we're going to be all right,'' Smith told the AP by phone. ''The good news is it wasn't anything that is life-threatening.''

Smith has three mounts on Friday's card at Churchill Downs and five Saturday.

''I'll be rooting for Roadster's connections big-time,'' he said. ''I'll be a glorified cheerleader.''

Omaha Beach galloped Wednesday morning without problem and Mandella said everything was fine. But that changed by late afternoon when the exam showed the cough was more than a minor irritation.

The condition can indicate the start of a virus, a sore throat or a sore in somewhere in the horse's soft palate.

Omaha Beach's scratch moves Bodexpress into the field in the No. 20 post.

Mandella said he would likely return to Southern California before the Derby.

''I didn't lose interest,'' he said, ''but I don't want to be here and watch it.''

It's not the first time the Derby has lost a favorite leading up to the race.

In 2009, I Want Revenge became the first morning-line favorite to scratch the day of the race because of a hot spot on his ankle.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2019, 12:23 AM

Some basic tips for betting on the Derby
May 1, 2019
By The Associated Press

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) Picking a horse to win the Kentucky Derby is easy.

Placing a bet is as close as a cellphone, tablet, computer or even a smart TV with internet access. But for the novice or inexperienced bettor, making a wager that pays off with a profit can be a challenge: Beginners need to know how to place a bet, who to bet on and where to place the bet.

Off-track simulcasting in more than two dozen states offers a convenient alternative to going to the track. Of course, there's always the actual experience of walking up to the betting window at the track.

That's a good option if you can't get to Churchill Downs, where 150,000 spectators are expected for Saturday's 145th Derby and hoping to get some action on Game Winner, the 9-2 new morning line favorite after 4-1 previous favorite Omaha Beach was scratched Wednesday evening with a breathing problem.

Minimum bets vary from state to state, but here are some things to consider when placing a wager:

THE BASICS

The obvious wager is betting on a horse to win. Just pick one. But after that, it can get a little trickier.

Bets can be made on a horse to win, place (finish first or second) or show (finish first, second or third) - or all three with an across-the-board wager. An exacta involves correctly picking the first two horses in order, or in any order with a combination known as a box bet (1-2 or 2-1, for example).

Superfecta bets (picking the first four horses) are also available, as are exotic wagers such as Pick 3 and Pick 6 that requires choosing the winning horses in multiple races. A Pick 3 and a Pick 6 are the hardest to predict, leading to rollover jackpots that can be very lucrative. But they probably are best left to more seasoned bettors.

DO YOUR HOMEWORK

Determining who to bet on can start with a daily racing program that lists entrants for each race and information including odds, jockey, trainer, silks, saddle towel color and past performances. They can be purchased at the track, simulcast venue or a track's website.

It will initially seem like a lot of numbers and statistics, but tracks and web sites offer instructions on how to read and understand a program. One benefit to being at the track is seeing how the horse looks in the paddock or during the pre-race parade. Appearance and temperament are important, so keep an eye on horse's ears to see how engaged the horse is with the atmosphere.

And there's nothing wrong with playing a hunch, since after all, it's just a gamble.

ONLINE BETTING

After learning what to bet and who to bet on, the next step is placing the bet.

Numerous websites such as TwinSpires.com - Churchill Downs' online service - Equibase.com and TVG.com offer betting at racetracks worldwide. Wagering is free, but it will require setting up a subscription and require banking information to place bets and deposit winnings. Those services even provide live streaming and replays.

Various online sites offer betting tips along with news and updates. It's the most convenient way to bet on marquee races such as the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes as the Triple Crown season unfolds. It's also a good option for other marquee races during the year such as the Travers Stakes and season-ending Breeders' Cup World Championships.

PARI-MUTUEL BETTING-SPORTS BETTING

When wagering, the longer the odds the bigger the payoff.

In horse racing, the odds are not finalized until the race begins. That is known as pari-mutuel betting. That's different than sports betting in which bettors get the odds that are available at the time they make their bet.

New Jersey tracks also offer exchange wagering for horse races, which differs from pari-mutuel betting. Exchange wagering matches and locks in the odds at the time a bet is placed and also allows betting during the race.

And while sports betting expanded in several states last year after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states could legalize sports gambling, it does not include horse racing. Even in most states that have legalized sports betting, placing a bet on horse racing is limited to the tracks as the sport examines how to compete and benefit from new legislation.

KNOW YOUR LIMIT

As rewarding as cashing in a winning bet can be, the desire to win more or recoup some inevitable losses can get intoxicating - and risky. When novice or inexperienced bettors make wagers on horse racing, it should be for entertainment purposes and not income.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2019, 11:47 AM

Kentucky Derby Breakdown
May 3, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Kentucky Derby Contenders

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the field for the 145th Kentucky Derby!

Kentucky Derby ML Odds

2019 BREAKDOWN

PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Derby Record) Trainer (Derby Record)

1 – War of Will (15-1) Tyler Gaffalione (0-1) Mark Casse (0-6)
Notes: At one point this past winter, he was on his way to being your Derby favorite after three consecutive dirt wins. Then the Louisiana Derby debacle happened. He hopped at the break, appeared lame in front AND behind before a ninth-place finish and soft tissue injury diagnosis. That’s a lot to overcome regardless of how well you’re reportedly training coming into the race. He benefits the most from the two scratches as all of the horses in the main starting gate will now move outward one stall, leaving the dreaded rail stall vacant. Looks like he’ll be gunning from his inside draw to get position early. Combine his issues with the inside draw and the six weeks between layoffs and he’s the first toss.

2 - Tax (20-1) Junior Alvarado (0-2) Danny Gargan (Debut)
Notes: Of all of the horses in here, the draw probably was most unkind to this gelding. His connections were on record saying they were going to take him back and make one run and now have little choice. Hard to take a horse out of his element in a race like this and now he figures to be surrounded. He ran well in his runner-up performance in the Wood Memorial but it felt like he was never beating Tacitus despite losing by just a little over a length. Not for me.

3 – By My Standards (15-1) Gabriel Saez (0-2) Bret Calhoun (Debut)
Notes: One of two “buzz” horses this season, he comes in on a two-race win streak that includes the Louisiana Derby where he had a great trip. He took a big step forward from his maiden tally to his last win and if he does it again, he’ll be right there. It’s hard for me imagine that happening. He’ll need to be used harder leaving out of there from his draw or risk getting shuffled back. Not great options after a perfect trip. Plus, his pedigree leaves a lot to be desired for this distance. I’m passing.

4 – Gray Magician (50-1) Drayden Van Dyke (0-1) Peter Miller (0-1)
Notes: With just a maiden win from eight tries he’s one of two horses in the body of the race that’s still eligible for an entry level allowance contest. And his races have been slow. Not really sure where that runner-up performance in the UAE Derby came from. He made a menacing move at a distance just a sixteenth of a mile or so shorter than this but did appear to level off in deep stretch. He’d be one of the biggest upsets in Derby history. Pass.

5 - Improbable (6-1) Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-3) Bob Baffert (5-29)
Notes: I know a lot of people anointed this horse as the next “horse of a lifetime” for Baffert after his Los Al Futurity win but I’ve never been a fan. He beat little as a two-year-old when using his tactical speed to pull dream trips. He faced a bit of adversity when racing wide in his Rebel comeback and got run down late by a horse that figures to be 40-1 or higher here then had the length of the stretch to get by the winner in the Arkansas Derby and couldn’t make up a length. You can excuse the first race this year but not the last one. On the plus side, he gets arguably the best rider in the country but that doesn’t make up for the fact that I believe I think the topside of his pedigree is starting to catch up to him and no he has to get another furlong as one of the shorter prices. No thanks.

6 - Vekoma (20-1) Javier Castellano (0-12) George Weaver (0-1)
Notes: His speed allowed him to get a great trip in his Blue Grass tally but his action through the lane left a lot to be desired as he wheels his leg through the stretch awkwardly. Castellano is one of the best at figuring out the pace puzzle in a horse race and even better at taking advantage of it. He’ll have this horse in the vanguard and figure it out from there. My biggest issue with him is that I have never felt he was a distance horse and his win last out did little to change my mind. The runner-up had a tough trip but isn’t much in my opinion anyway. He’s gotten a lot more attention since they announced the Omaha Beach scratch but it hasn’t been from me.

7 – Maximum Security (8-1) Luis Saez (0-6) Jason Servis (0-1)
Notes: If I had a dollar for each time I’ve been asked how this horse was entered for a $16K tag in his debut I’d be wealthy. Sometimes they fall through the cracks. Sometimes they overcome their problems. Sometimes they win their first four starts at a track where their trainer won at over 35%. This time it’s all of the above. I think he’s the speed and Saez will go as fast as he has to maintain his position in front. If they go slow, like last out in the Florida Derby, they probably think he can steal away and win it. If he has to go fast, he winds up a rabbit of sorts for Game Winner. Either way I don’t think he has a chance in here.

8 - Tacitus (8-1) Jose Ortiz (0-4) Bill Mott (0-8)
Notes: Let’s end the suspense: he’s my pick to win the Derby. I’ve loved him since he got involved in a wicked pace in his debut and stayed on like a warrior. He’s won all three of his starts since. He went to the quirky Tampa Bay Downs course and passed a bunch of horses along the inside to win their Derby then survived a roller-derby-like run into the first turn of the Wood Memorial to win like a horse who wanted more distance than the nine furlongs offered, If you turned the 19 horses in the Derby loose in a paddock and asked me to pick out the horse that looks like the Derby winner, I’d point to him. He’s got a big ol’ stride on him that looks like it would get over any surface. He’s the total package. And when they pass the eighth pole, he’ll be drawing away.

9 – Plus Que Parfait (30-1) Ricardo Santana, Jr. (0-4) Brendan Walsh (Debut)
Notes: He won going 1 3/16 miles in the UAE Derby when he added blinkers, his trainer has been on a roll and if you take the two races at the Fair Grounds off of his card he has the look of a live longshot. Problem is he is slow. Not much else to add. He’d flat-out shock me if he hit was a major player in here.

10 – Cutting Humor (30-1) Mike Smith (2-24) Todd Pletcher (2-52)
Notes: He’s the one that I’ve flip-flopped over the past few days. I really liked his second to Bourbon War at the start of the year and I was able to forgive the effort in the Southwest, one of the strangest races I’ve ever seen. But after watching the Sunland Derby win a couple of times, I decided that I wasn’t as impressed as I thought I was. Don’t fall for the “set a track record” rubbish from his last either. That thing seems to fall every year. I might use him on the bottom end of my exotic wagers in the Derby but nothing more.

11 - Haikal (SCR) Rajiv Maragh (0-5) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-8)
Notes: IS SCRATCHED DUE TO A FOOT ABSCESS.

12 – Omaha Beach (SCR) Mike Smith (2-24) Richard Mandella (0-6)
Notes: IS SCRATCHED DUE TO AN ENTRAPPED EPIGLOTTIS.

13 – Code of Honor (12-1) John Velazquez (2-20) Shug McGaughey (1-7)
Notes: When Shug won this with Orb in 2013, he told me that he had “five perfect months” with him. That hasn’t been the case with this colt. He stumbled in the Champagne but recovered to be second. He got sick leading up to the Breeders’ Cup and was forced to scratch before a massive flub at Gulfstream. Things really seemed to turn the corner in the Fountain of Youth when Johnny V put him in the perfect spot to get the candy. He had no chance in the Florida Derby behind that slow pace yet made a couple of moves and managed to grab the show-dough. He’s been training very nicely leading up to this and while I’m not completely sold on his ability to get the distance, he should get a good pace set up and come running late. Using him in all of my wagers.

14 – Win Win Win (12-1) Julian Pimentel (Debut) Mike Trombetta (0-1)
Notes: He did lose ground when gaining ground to be third at Tampa and found trouble on the far turn of the Blue Grass when second but I think he’s a sprinter/one turn type as evident by his track record performance in a seven-furlong stakes at Tampa. We have rarity this year for Derby 145 as there are not one but TWO “wiseguy” horses and he is one of them. Between the trip at Keeneland and the fact that he won the “simulated-workout-by-accident-race” over the two Mott runners, he’s gotten a lot more attention than I think he deserves. Not for me.

15 – Master Fencer (50-1) Julien Leparoux (0-10) Koichi Tsunoda (Debut)
Notes: I would like to take this space to ask the powers that be to get rid of the Asian-points races. I understand why it’s done but I don’t like it. Hard pass.

16 – Game Winner (9-2) Joel Rosario (1-8) Bob Baffert (5-29)
Notes: The B.C Juvenile and Eclipse champ should still be undefeated. He lost a filthy head bob to Omaha Beach in their division of the Rebel when he raced wide then was ridden like a horse who was trying to get a lot more out of his race in the Santa Anita Derby. If the tactic works, Baffert may have his sixth Derby score. IF it doesn’t, it’ll likely be because this horse simply doesn’t want to go this far, a concern I’ve had with him since day one. He kind of runs like a horse that is stretched at nine furlongs. He’ll need to rely on his rider and his class to get that extra furlong. The fact that he won the Juvenile over this course helps though I think you can argue that he struggled over the course. If it’s wet and he runs to his pedigree it might be all over. In fact, it’s one of the biggest factors for me. Using him in almost all of my wagers.

17 - Roadster (5-1) Florent Geroux (0-3) Bob Baffert (5-29)
Notes:The last of the three Baffert runners is easily my least favorite one. He was mediocre, at best, as a juvenile and didn’t really impress with his allowance win or in the Santa Anita Derby. I can’t recall a more dressed up prep. The early speed can’t go that far, Game Winner was racing into shape and this guy just picked up the pieces late. It speaks volumes that Smith abandoned for Omaha Beach and I’m not a fan of the guy who wound up on his back. He is going to take plenty of money and I think he is one of the best bet-against horses in the field.

18 – Long Range Toddy (30-1) Jon Court (0-3) Steve Asmussen (0-19)
Notes: Court gave this horse a superb ride to win his division of the Rebel when he snuck up on Improbable. He probably didn’t like the wet track last out and that’s not god considering the weather forecast. He’ll likely have to hustle away from the high draw and will have a tough time pulling a favorable trip. Pass.

19 - Spinoff (30-1) Manny Franco (0-1) Todd Pletcher (2-52)
Notes:Like Long Range Toddy, he’s going to have to be harder used than his connections would like in the early going or he’s destined for a very wide trip into that fast turn. This scenario is a far cry from the trip he had last out because after a bit of a bump at the break he couldn’t have gotten a better set-up if they scripted it themselves. I don’t like the horse that beat him and I’m not a fan of his either.

20 – Country House (30-1) Flavien Prat (0-2) Bill Mott (0-8)
Notes: Mott truly believes this horse belongs in the Derby and that the added distance will help him tremendously. Things would have to go perfectly for him to win this from far back. He’d need a strong pace, have to avoid traffic trouble and pass an awful lot of horses. Really hard for me to see a horse eligible for an entry level allowance contest win this but stranger things have happened. I’ll use him in exactas and trifectas and on a Pick 4 ticket as well.

21 – Bodexpress (30-1) Chris Landeros (Debut) Gustavo Delgado (0-1)
Notes: I don’t care how many points they have, maidens do not belong in the Kentucky Derby. I do like his rider a lot, though.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2019, 11:50 AM

At the Gate - Saturday
May 3, 2019
By Mike Dempsey

The negative buzz surrounding the Kentucky Oaks (G1) favorite Bellafina was on target, as the filly did not show her usual gusto and came up empty in the stretch in a fifth-place finish yesterday.

I thought the race was ripe for a longshot or two, and I went with Positive Spirt, who went off at 45-1 and Street Band as my second choice and went off at 25-1.

Longshots did indeed complete the trifecta at 13-1, 38-1 and 10-1. Serengeti Empress took the field gate to wire and returned $28.00 with Liora competing a $2 exacta that paid $439.20.

My top pick Positive Spirt was squeezed back coming out of the gate, clipped heels and unseated her rider Manny Franco. I think it hurt me more than Franco because he was up off the main track at Churchill Downs much quicker than I was up off my office floor after seeing the incident.

I have been worried all week about the weather but did not anticipate the main track at Churchill Downs being fast by post time for the Oaks while Belmont Park cancel their card after the fifth race due to heavy rainfall.

More rain was in the forecast for Friday right into Saturday morning in New York. With six of the dozen races on the Belmont Park card scheduled for the turf, I threw in the towel for Saturday’s card. That is an unprecedented move for me, but we have 14 races at Churchill Downs to zero in on this afternoon.

The Kentucky Derby (G1) field is down to 19 with the scratch of Haikal, who was 30-1 on the morning line.

It did not rain in Louisville overnight but there is more rain in the forecast starting at 9:00am and now the forecast for the remainder of the day calls for a 35-45% chance of showers.

That is less than originally forecast, but that is not a surprise as I swear, I think the National Weather Service just uses a dart board to predict the forecast.

Improbable was taking some early action in the betting and was the favorite in the Will Pays for the Oaks/Derby double. I still think Game Winner will likely go off as the tepid favorite.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Belmont Park daily, my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday, and my Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes Day Reports.

To purchase my Kentucky Derby Day Report click here.

Here is the opening race from Churchill Downs to get the day off to a good start:

CD Race 1 OClm $80,000N3X (10:30 ET)
#3 Curate 5-2
#2 Control Stake 5-2
#6 Mr. Chow 2-1
#5 Kowboy Karma 10-1

Analysis: Curate prompted the early pace and finished gamely to miss by just a nose last out to Wentz at this level at Keeneland in the mud. The gelding was 7 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. He came off a 3 1/2 month break to beat Alw-3 optional claimers two back at Oaklawn Park in a sharp effort. The Cox trainee is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track and he certainly had no issues with the mud last out and he beat Alw-2L foes in the slop last fall. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and looks very tough. Likely going to have to settle for less than his 5-2 morning line.

Control Stake stalked the early pace and could not make u any ground in the stretch in a fourth-place finish in the Hot Springs last out at Oaklawn Park over a wet track. The winner Whitmore was the runner up in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) last fall. The runner up Share the Upside came back to beat Alw-3 optional claimers in his next start while the third-place finisher Welder won a couple of stakes at Will Rogers Downs in his next two starts. The gelding has run okay on off tracks but does have a habit of landing for minor shares throughout his career.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,5,6
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,5,6 / 2,3,4,5,6

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

CD Race 11 The Old Forester Turf Classic G1 (5:25 ET)
#1 Qurbaan 8-1
#12 Bricks and Mortar 5-2
#9 Synchrony 8-1
#2 Raging Bull 5-1

Analysis: Qurbaan tracked the early pace, may have moved a bit soon and did not have enough punch in the final furlong in a third-place finish in the Makers 46 Mile (G1) last out at Keeneland going a mile. His lone trip at nine furlongs came three back in the Ft. Lauderdale over good ground where he rallied to finish in the runner up spot, earning a career top speed fig. Blinkers go on and I like the jock switch here to Smith. He should move forward off his last effort and the 8-1 morning line looks more than fair. He has shown he can handle ground with some give to it.

Bricks and Mortar tracked the early pace and finished gamely to win the Muniz Memorial 'Cap (G2) at Fair Grounds last out on form footing at nine furlongs. The Brown trainee has been lights out in three starts since returning off a 14-month layoff. He has not won 7 of his 9 starts and handled yielding ground winning the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) two back. This guy is going to be very tough, but he does draw an outside post and is going to be shorter than his 5-2 morning line.

Synchrony also exits the Muniz where he made a good late run to finish third, beaten 1 3/4 lengths for the top spot. He won the Fair Grounds 'Cap (G3) two back off a 2 1/2-month break. He makes his third start of his current form cycle here for the Stidham barn. He has run decent on less than firm footing, running third in this race last year over yielding turf that was closer to soft. The barn is 20% winners when adding the hoof. Johnny V. picks up the call.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,12 / 1,2,9,12
TRI: 1,12 1,2,9,12 / 1,2,9,10,12

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Churchill Downs
R1: #5 Kowboy Karma 10-1
R3: #8 I’m Looking Up 10-1
R4: #8 Yousaiditall 10-1
R5: #5 Hungry Kitten 12-1
R6: #6 Emboldened 8-1
R7: #9 Environs 8-1
R8: #4 Bobby’s Wicked One 10-1
R9: #2 Social Paranoia 10-1
R9: #5 Seismic Wave 8-1
R10: #8 Manny Wah 10-1
R10: #7 Mr. Money 12-1
R10: #12 Everlast 20-1
R11: #1 Qurbaan 8-1
R11: #4 Synchrony 8-1
R12: #8 Tacitus 8-1
R12: #13 Code of Honor 12-1
R13: #1 Limonite 10-1
R13: #2 Get the Prize 10-1
R14: #3 Morning Social 10-1

Good luck today!

**StarDust Bum** · 05-04-2019, 12:00 PM

my derby picks

win place show..................8 /16

exacta................................8 - 16/8,10,13,15,16

trifecta..............................8 - 16/8,10,13,15,16/8,10,13,15,16

superfecta..........................8 - 16/8,10,13,15,16/8,10,13,15,16/8,10,13,15,16

good luck !

**StarDust Bum** · 05-18-2019, 02:59 AM

Preakness Stakes Breakdown
May 17, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Preakness Stakes ML Odds

2019 BREAKDOWN

PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)

1 – War of Will 4/1 Tyler Gaffalione (Debut) Mark Casse (0-4)

Notes: Boy, has he been on some roller coaster ride this year. Before his debacle in the Louisiana Derby when his three-race win streak was snapped, there was a good chance he was going to be the Kentucky Derby favorite. But he came out of that hurt. And then he was fine. And then he was training great. And then he drew the rail. End of story, right? Wrong. Gaffalione did a spectacular job working out a clean trip from the draw and was ready to make his move to the lead in the Kentucky Derby. And then………Look, we all know what went down. There are two camps. The first thinks he was never going by Maximum Security and that HE caused the problems and then there all the rational people like me who believe he was greatly affected and could have actually won. Either way, he showed up in Louisville off the six-week break and that spoke volumes to me. I think he has a big chance to win this and he’ll be on all of my tickets.

2 – Bourbon War 12/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-1) Mark Hennig (0-2)

Notes: I’ve liked this horse since the day he broke his maiden at Aqueduct last fall. He ran well in the Remsen just 17 days later, was good in his allowance score at Gulfstream and even better when his rally fell a bit short in the Fountain of Youth. He had no chance in the Florida Derby when the winner waltzed on the front end. Now, he has a bit of a freshening, gets a course more conducive to his late running style and some added distance. His jock doesn’t hurt either, or the addition of blinkers, which will hopefully make him a little keen and focused.

3 – Warrior’s Charge 12/1 Javier Castellano (2-7) Brad Cox (Debut)

Notes: Finished third in his first three tries from off the pace before putting it all together two back when his connections changed tactics and put him on the front end. Still eligible for a second level allowance contest and his pedigree does not suggest the extra furlong this offers over his last two tallies will do him any favors. I’ll pass.

4 – Improbable 5/2 Mike Smith (2-17) Bob Baffert (7-19)

Notes: I’ve watched the replay of the Derby from start to finish about a dozen times and the incident on the far turn around 50 more times. When you get a chance, do each one time and just focus on this horse. You’ll see what I see. He didn’t do one step of running. “Evenly” should be the short comment in the chart. What a non-effort. Now, he’s the morning line favorite, comes in for America’s Trainer and gets “Money” Mike. He will take boatloads of money. Not a dollar of it will be mine, save in a couple of “All” slots in trifectas. I know it can be hard to resist the temptation of just defaulting to this horse when you handicap the race but try. You’ll thank me later.

5 - Owendale 10/1 Florent Geroux (0-3) Brad Cox (Debut)

Notes: I’ve taken my fair share of shots at Geroux but that was a hell of a ride he gave this horse to win the Lexington. He put him in the perfect spot, pulled the trigger in the short-stretch of the 8.5 furlongs at Keeneland at just the right time and was able to last late. I do, however, feel that he was also the beneficiary of some bad racing luck for his rivals, namely the runner-up Anothertwistafate. I’m not certain he was best last time and the chances of him getting all of the breaks again are against him. A peripheral player, at best, for me.

6 – Market King 30/1 Jon Court (0-1) D. Wayne Lukas (6-43)

Notes: A gate scratch in the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard, he wasn’t even cleared to race in this until earlier this week as he was on the vet’s list. No thanks.

7 – Alwaysmining 8/1 Daniel Centeno (Debut) Kelly Rubley (Debut)

Notes: We haven’t seen a Maryland-bred win this in over three decades and Rubley would be the first female trainer to ever win a Triple Crown event. Combine that with his “local horse” status and you have an amazing, feel-good story that could steer the attention away from the Derby That Won’t End. Unfortunately, they run these races on the track and not with Mr. Rogers in the Land of Make Believe. He’s not facing the toughest Preakness field ever assembled but they’re killers compared to what he’s beaten, albeit, soundly. Bottom line is, he wins, I lose.

8 - Signalman 30/1 Brian Hernandez, Jr. (0-1) Ken McPeek (0-3)

Notes: Morning lines are a very tricky thing to make and for the most part it is a thankless job. But this is just stupid. This horse won’t be 30-1 and he shouldn’t be 30-1. He’s run one “bad” race and that was off of a three-month break over a short stretch run race at Gulfstream, hardly the place for a horse with his running style. He’s run well and been in the trifecta in his other six starts. He’s gaining ground at the end of most of his races, he’s making his third start off of the break and he’ll have plenty of pace to run into. A definite player, he’ll be included in all of my exotic plays and maybe even on a backup pick four ticket.

9 – Bodexpress 20/1 John Velazquez (0-8) Gustavo Delgado (Debut)

Notes: He found a little trouble in the Derby incident and gets a Hall of Fame rider for this but I’m sticking by my mantra: Maidens do not belong in these races!

10 – Everfast 50/1 Joel Rosario (0-5) Dale Romans (1-6)

Notes: He’s run three races in which he’s been competitive and seven where he has been noting more than an also-ran. Was a very late edition to the party on Wednesday. Not sure why. I wouldn’t use him with counterfeit cash.

11 – Laughing Fox 20/1 Ricardo Santana, Jr. (0-1) Steve Asmussen (2-8)

Notes: He is as sneaky a longshot as can be in this heat. He lost all chance at the start of the Rebel and didn’t love the slop in the Arkansas Derby. He’s won his other three starts this year in come-from-behind fashion and has plenty of pedigree to suggest the added distance will suit him. The two-week turnaround is my lone concern but his price more than makes up for it. Including him in all exotic plays and on a backup pick four ticket.

12 – Anothertwistafate 6/1 Jose Ortiz (0-2) Blaine Wright (-)

Notes: Sorry, but I’ve never understood the infatuation by many with this horse. He’s winless on dirt as all three of his scores have come against far inferior competition on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields. He ran well in the Sunland Derby and got himself into a tough spot in the Lexington but I don’t think those efforts will get it done here. I also feel he has plateaued while others in here have some blue sky. I wouldn’t be surprised if his rider, one of the best around on the front end, reverts back to the gate-to-wire strategy used in all three of his wins, which would seemingly make his job that much tougher. I’m against him.

13 – Win Win Win 15/1 Julian Pimentel (0-2) Mike Trombetta (0-1)

Notes: Wise guy handicappers and fans love to bet the bigger price of an uncoupled entry. Well, he’s “other” local horse. Took some money and had a buzz around him going into the Derby but he didn’t run a step after a pretty clean trip. Maybe it was as simple as him not handling the slop or maybe he’s just not that good. I’m siding with the latter.

Announcement

Cnotes 2019 Triple Crown All You Need To Know About The Big 3 Races News/Notes/Selections !

Cnotes 2019 Triple Crown All You Need To Know About The Big 3 Races News/Notes/Selections !

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