2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Info, Tips & Analysis
by Dietz | Apr 27, 2018 | Horse Racing
The Kentucky Derby is a horse race held annually in Louisville, Kentucky, United States, on the first Saturday in May, capping the two-week-long Kentucky Derby Festival. The race is a Grade I stakes race for three-year-old Thoroughbreds at a distance of one and a quarter miles at Churchill Downs. The race is known in the United States as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes In Sports” or “The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” for its approximate duration, and is also called “The Run for the Roses” (a blanket of red roses are draped over the winner). It is the first leg of the American Triple Crown followed by the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.
he Kentucky Derby is run at a distance of 1 ¼ miles and is maxed out at 20 entries. The 20 entries are determined through a points system. Points are gathered from qualifying point races thought out the year (we have discussed these races in other posts).
Let me start-off by saying that this race is a TOTAL CRAP SHOOT! I say it every year. These horses will never face a 20-horse field again, not even in a Breeders’ Cup race (maxed out at 16 entries). Anything can happen in a 20 horse field; bumping, pushed wide on the turn, trapped behind horses, slammed at the rail at the start of the race. FUN FACT – One horse won the Kentucky Derby starting from gate one (FERNIDAD 1986) and one horse from gate two has won since 1978 (AFFIRMED 1978). Everyone wants to get to the rail to save ground and unless you manage to break VERY from the one post you are going to get slammed into the rail and pushed back and pretty much your race is over.
Front-running horses have a hard time in this race especially if these horses have never had mud or dirt in their face, if they caught up behind a wall of horses they will get dirt in the face causing them to back up or become restless and unsettled which in turn causes them to tire during the race. They also have to hold the distance of 1 ¼ miles.
I like horses that have broken their maiden in late spring or early summer the previous year. This gives them time to run several races before they turn three. I also like horses that have had a minimal of five races. Each time a horse races, it gains experience and muscle. It is like you and I working out for a year compressed into two minutes and five seconds. The more a horse races the stronger he/she becomes. You hear the expression all the time “up against older horses.” Older horses are more experienced and are stronger. Only two horses in the past 10 years have won the Kentucky Derby with less than 5 races prior; ANIMAL KINGDOM (2011), BIG BROWN (2008). The past 20 years has had only six winners. You cannot really count the late 90’s with CHARISMATIC (4 races- 1999), REAL QUIET (2 races, 1988) and Silver Charm (1 race, 1997), those were the days when anyone could enter the race. It is the exact reason the money and points qualifier came into existence.
Month/year broke maiden Races ran before the Derby
2017 ALWAYS DREAMNIG 7/1 6 races
2016 NYQUIST 6/15 7 races
2015 AMERICAN PHAROAH 9/14 5 races
2014 CALIFORNIA CHROME 4/13 10 races
2013 ORB 8/12 7 races
2012 I’LL HAVE ANOTHER 7/11 6 races
2011 ANIMAL KINGDON 9/10 4 races
I also look for horses that have won on different track surfaces. This shows me that the horse is versatile and can run on raw talent, not a “horse for the course”.
One more factor I look at is the beyer speed figures, who has the fastest and who is increasing steadily without the potential of a “bounce”. A horse that jumps from an 80 to a 96 will have the potential to bounce. I look for horses that increase five to seven points on a steady basis or those that have produced the highest figures on a regular basis.
I will have my complete analysis horse by horse and wagers for the Kentucky Derby, under card and Kentucky Oaks later in the week including a PICK 4, show pool and the special daily double with Friday’s Kentucky Oaks (female horses) and the Kentucky Derby.
2018 Kentucky Derby Analysis
MAGNUM MOON – Trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by Luis Saez (leading rider at Gulfstream Park Champions meet). Broke his maiden in January of 2018 making this a very young horse to race in the Derby. Bread very nicely out of Malibu Moon who sired Derby winner Orb. Front running style will not suit this horse well if he is caught in traffic. He has never been behind in a race and mud in the face will cause issues. He will be out front looking to hold on.
GOOD MAGIC – Trained by Chad Brown, ridden by Jose Ortiz. Broke his maiden in August of 2017 at Saratoga Race Course. Winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Came in third in his first race off the lay-off in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, second race off the lay-off was the Toyota Blue Grass and he won. We all know how I feel about the third race of the form cycle, usually a horse’s best effort. They have bought this horse along slowly for a reason. He has also raced on five different racecourses coming in the money in all of them. I have a feeling Chad Brown is ready with this horse.
AUDIBLE – Trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by Javier Castellano. First race was in September of 2017, broke his maiden in November of 2017. Winner of four in a row, including the Florida Derby. He was very winded after that race, his gallop out was slow and he was holding off the second place finisher HOFBURG. I was a big believer in this horse until that last race, 1 ¼ miles may be tough for this horse.
NOBLE INDY – Trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by ?????. Broke his maiden in December of 2017. Has only four career races coming into the Derby. Showed grit when checked in the Louisiana Derby and coming back to win by a neck. Least talked about horse of all the Pletcher entries.
VINO ROSSO – Trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by Johnny V. Broke his maiden at Aqueduct in November of 2017. This will be his sixth career start having won two races at Aqueduct and one at Tampa Bay. He won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct with a very nice closing run from far back. My concern is it rained 2 days straight prior to that day, the track was not wet, but it was not 100% dry. Never been a big fan of horses coming from Aqueduct, but this one could be one to change my mind. May be the “wise guy” horse of the Derby.
BOLT d’ ORO – Trained by Nick Ruis, ridden by Victor Espinoza. Has been in the top tier of all Kentucky Derby future wagers. This horse has all the makings of a winner with pedigree, rate/closing running style and good closing kick. The issue is his last few races where he did not want to see the finish line, never really showed that winning instinct. Sometimes when a horse gives up a few times, they do not want to win.
ENTICED – Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, ridden by Junior Alvarado. Broke his maiden in September of 2017. This will be his seventh career start. He came in second last race in the Wood Memorial to VINO ROSSO in a very short field. He has impeccable breeding, some of the best in the Derby. He speed figures are not the same as the top qualifiers and a one-turn race seems to be his best distance.
MENDELSSOHN – Trained by Aiden O’ Brien, ridden by Ryan Moore. Broke his maiden on 8/13/17 in second career start. This will be his eighth career start. This horse fits right into my analysis, but come comes from overseas, which has a poor track record for the Derby. I do however want to point out that this horse has already come over seas and won at Del Mar in the Breeders Juvenile Turf. He won his last race (UAE Derby) by 18.5 lengths. There is lots of talk about this horse of late, in fact last I looked (4/26/18) he is second choice now in Vegas odds.
JUSTIFY – Trained by Bob Baffert, ridden by Mike Smith. Broke his maiden in February of this year. One of the lightest raced horse in the field making only three career starts, but winner of all three including a win over BOLT d ORO last race. Jockey trainer combo is the best in the business. Horse is far from my Derby theory, but look for this horse in the Travers Stakes or more mid-summer races.
FLAMEAWAY – Trained by Mark Casse, ridden by Jose Lezcano. Broke his maiden in May of 2018 and this will be his 10th career start having won races at seven different tracks and on three different surfaces (synthetic, dirt and grass). He has a win over this track as well, something most of these horses cannot say. Nothing not to like about this horse. He has come in second to GOOD MAGIC and QUIP (scratched with injury from the race) and has beaten CATHOLIC COWBOY (be on under card) and VINO ROSSO. Concern will be distance, but this horse can battle.
SOLOMINI – Trained by Bob Baffert, ridden by Flavien Pratt. Broke his maiden on 9/2/17. This will be his seventh career start having been in the money in every race, but only winning his career start. As good as Baffert is, it will be a stretch to see this one winning. Lost rather convincingly to MAGNUM MOON twice, once he had the perfect rail trip while MAGNUM MOON went 4 wide and he could not gain on him in the stretch. Although he has raced in graded stakes races his entire career, I would not be shocked if this horse is entered in another race on Derby day.
BRAVAZO – Trained by D. Wayne Lucas, ridden by ????. Broke his maiden on 9/16/17 and this will be his ninth career start. This horse is puzzling. Won two races in a row including the Risen Star Stakes beating NOBLE INDY and SNAPPER SINCLAIR, then throws a dud in the Louisiana Derby losing by 21 lengths. Watching both races, you can see this horse does not like dirt in his face. That is not a good sign for the Derby with 20 horses and some very fast horses up front.
MY BOY JACK – Trained by Keith Desormeaux, ridden by Kent Desormeaux. His first race was in June of 2017, but broke his maiden five races later in October. He has since run in five more races making the Derby his 11th career start. He is the deep closer in the field and Kent Desormeaux thrives in that roll. If the track is wet, this horse may go off as the favorite. With the speed in this race, it may set up for a deep closer. Be in all exotics.
PROMISES FULFILLED – Trained by Dale Romans, ridden by Corey Lanerie. Broke his maiden on 9/17/17. This will be his sixth career start. I was optimistic for this horse after he won the Fountain of Youth and I even put an early wager on him in the Derby Future pools. He is a front-runner, who will have hard time keeping pace with others in here. Love the jockey trainer combination, but I think he is up against it in this race.
FREE DROP BILLY – Trained by Dale Romans, ridden by Robby Albarado. Broke his maiden on 6/15/17. This will be his ninth career start. Has not been running as well this year and was beat rather handily by the top tier horses in here including GOOD MAGIC, AUDIBLE, and FLAMEAWAY. He is a closer and will keep running in the end, but will not be in the winner’s circle.
LONE SAILOR – Trained by Tom Amoss, ridden by James Graham. Broke his maiden in second career start on 9/3/17. This will be his eighth career start. Has not won any race since his maiden win. Ran very well his last race coming in second to NOBLE INDY where he actually had the lead in deep stretch, but could not hold on, losing by a head. If the horse got anything out of that race and could step forward off the effort, you never know. Best race yet.
HOFBURG – Trained by Bill Mott, ridden by Irad Ortiz. Saw this horse run on Labor Day weekend at Saratoga. I put him in my virtual stable. He was put on the shelf until this past March when he broke his maiden. They entered him in the Florida Derby off the maiden win and he came in second. Third race of the form cycle is always my favorite, particularly off the lay-off. He does not fit my Derby theory, but man does this horse looks dangerous. He did not lose by much too AUDIBLE. His sire is TAPIT and he has A.P. INDY on both sides of the breeding shed along with UNBRIDLED on stud side and DEPUTY MINISTER on mare side. I think he gained a lot from that race and although he may not win exotics are a legit shot at a price. Keep an eye on this horse for future races, Belmont and Travers Stakes in particular.
FIRENZE FIRE – Trained by Jason Servis, ridden by Paco Lopez. Broke his maiden in career debut on 6/18/17. This will be his tenth career start. Has been beaten solidly the last few races in the Gotham and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He is a decent horse, but the grueling 1 ¼ – mile distance will have this horse well back of even the 4th place finisher.
COMBATANT – Trained by Steve Asmussen, ridden by ????. Broke his maiden in second career start on 10/29/17. This will be his eighth career start. He is a closer who will just keep running. Had three consecutive second place finishes at one point then a third place finish in the Rebel Stakes before getting a career worst 4th in the Arkansas Derby. I expect Ricardo Santana Jr. to ride and he a good jockey at Churchill. Will not be on my win ticket, but superfecta bets are must.
INSTILLED REGARD – Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, ridden by ????. Broke his maiden in third career start on 10/29/17. Sits on number 20 in the entry field, getting in after QUIP was pulled out of the race. Has not shown much of anything, in fact I have never even heard of this horse until today while looking at the entries. Not a chance.
by Dietz | Apr 27, 2018 | Horse Racing
The Kentucky Derby is a horse race held annually in Louisville, Kentucky, United States, on the first Saturday in May, capping the two-week-long Kentucky Derby Festival. The race is a Grade I stakes race for three-year-old Thoroughbreds at a distance of one and a quarter miles at Churchill Downs. The race is known in the United States as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes In Sports” or “The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” for its approximate duration, and is also called “The Run for the Roses” (a blanket of red roses are draped over the winner). It is the first leg of the American Triple Crown followed by the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.
he Kentucky Derby is run at a distance of 1 ¼ miles and is maxed out at 20 entries. The 20 entries are determined through a points system. Points are gathered from qualifying point races thought out the year (we have discussed these races in other posts).
Let me start-off by saying that this race is a TOTAL CRAP SHOOT! I say it every year. These horses will never face a 20-horse field again, not even in a Breeders’ Cup race (maxed out at 16 entries). Anything can happen in a 20 horse field; bumping, pushed wide on the turn, trapped behind horses, slammed at the rail at the start of the race. FUN FACT – One horse won the Kentucky Derby starting from gate one (FERNIDAD 1986) and one horse from gate two has won since 1978 (AFFIRMED 1978). Everyone wants to get to the rail to save ground and unless you manage to break VERY from the one post you are going to get slammed into the rail and pushed back and pretty much your race is over.
Front-running horses have a hard time in this race especially if these horses have never had mud or dirt in their face, if they caught up behind a wall of horses they will get dirt in the face causing them to back up or become restless and unsettled which in turn causes them to tire during the race. They also have to hold the distance of 1 ¼ miles.
I like horses that have broken their maiden in late spring or early summer the previous year. This gives them time to run several races before they turn three. I also like horses that have had a minimal of five races. Each time a horse races, it gains experience and muscle. It is like you and I working out for a year compressed into two minutes and five seconds. The more a horse races the stronger he/she becomes. You hear the expression all the time “up against older horses.” Older horses are more experienced and are stronger. Only two horses in the past 10 years have won the Kentucky Derby with less than 5 races prior; ANIMAL KINGDOM (2011), BIG BROWN (2008). The past 20 years has had only six winners. You cannot really count the late 90’s with CHARISMATIC (4 races- 1999), REAL QUIET (2 races, 1988) and Silver Charm (1 race, 1997), those were the days when anyone could enter the race. It is the exact reason the money and points qualifier came into existence.
Month/year broke maiden Races ran before the Derby
2017 ALWAYS DREAMNIG 7/1 6 races
2016 NYQUIST 6/15 7 races
2015 AMERICAN PHAROAH 9/14 5 races
2014 CALIFORNIA CHROME 4/13 10 races
2013 ORB 8/12 7 races
2012 I’LL HAVE ANOTHER 7/11 6 races
2011 ANIMAL KINGDON 9/10 4 races
I also look for horses that have won on different track surfaces. This shows me that the horse is versatile and can run on raw talent, not a “horse for the course”.
One more factor I look at is the beyer speed figures, who has the fastest and who is increasing steadily without the potential of a “bounce”. A horse that jumps from an 80 to a 96 will have the potential to bounce. I look for horses that increase five to seven points on a steady basis or those that have produced the highest figures on a regular basis.
I will have my complete analysis horse by horse and wagers for the Kentucky Derby, under card and Kentucky Oaks later in the week including a PICK 4, show pool and the special daily double with Friday’s Kentucky Oaks (female horses) and the Kentucky Derby.
2018 Kentucky Derby Analysis
MAGNUM MOON – Trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by Luis Saez (leading rider at Gulfstream Park Champions meet). Broke his maiden in January of 2018 making this a very young horse to race in the Derby. Bread very nicely out of Malibu Moon who sired Derby winner Orb. Front running style will not suit this horse well if he is caught in traffic. He has never been behind in a race and mud in the face will cause issues. He will be out front looking to hold on.
GOOD MAGIC – Trained by Chad Brown, ridden by Jose Ortiz. Broke his maiden in August of 2017 at Saratoga Race Course. Winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Came in third in his first race off the lay-off in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, second race off the lay-off was the Toyota Blue Grass and he won. We all know how I feel about the third race of the form cycle, usually a horse’s best effort. They have bought this horse along slowly for a reason. He has also raced on five different racecourses coming in the money in all of them. I have a feeling Chad Brown is ready with this horse.
AUDIBLE – Trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by Javier Castellano. First race was in September of 2017, broke his maiden in November of 2017. Winner of four in a row, including the Florida Derby. He was very winded after that race, his gallop out was slow and he was holding off the second place finisher HOFBURG. I was a big believer in this horse until that last race, 1 ¼ miles may be tough for this horse.
NOBLE INDY – Trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by ?????. Broke his maiden in December of 2017. Has only four career races coming into the Derby. Showed grit when checked in the Louisiana Derby and coming back to win by a neck. Least talked about horse of all the Pletcher entries.
VINO ROSSO – Trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by Johnny V. Broke his maiden at Aqueduct in November of 2017. This will be his sixth career start having won two races at Aqueduct and one at Tampa Bay. He won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct with a very nice closing run from far back. My concern is it rained 2 days straight prior to that day, the track was not wet, but it was not 100% dry. Never been a big fan of horses coming from Aqueduct, but this one could be one to change my mind. May be the “wise guy” horse of the Derby.
BOLT d’ ORO – Trained by Nick Ruis, ridden by Victor Espinoza. Has been in the top tier of all Kentucky Derby future wagers. This horse has all the makings of a winner with pedigree, rate/closing running style and good closing kick. The issue is his last few races where he did not want to see the finish line, never really showed that winning instinct. Sometimes when a horse gives up a few times, they do not want to win.
ENTICED – Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, ridden by Junior Alvarado. Broke his maiden in September of 2017. This will be his seventh career start. He came in second last race in the Wood Memorial to VINO ROSSO in a very short field. He has impeccable breeding, some of the best in the Derby. He speed figures are not the same as the top qualifiers and a one-turn race seems to be his best distance.
MENDELSSOHN – Trained by Aiden O’ Brien, ridden by Ryan Moore. Broke his maiden on 8/13/17 in second career start. This will be his eighth career start. This horse fits right into my analysis, but come comes from overseas, which has a poor track record for the Derby. I do however want to point out that this horse has already come over seas and won at Del Mar in the Breeders Juvenile Turf. He won his last race (UAE Derby) by 18.5 lengths. There is lots of talk about this horse of late, in fact last I looked (4/26/18) he is second choice now in Vegas odds.
JUSTIFY – Trained by Bob Baffert, ridden by Mike Smith. Broke his maiden in February of this year. One of the lightest raced horse in the field making only three career starts, but winner of all three including a win over BOLT d ORO last race. Jockey trainer combo is the best in the business. Horse is far from my Derby theory, but look for this horse in the Travers Stakes or more mid-summer races.
FLAMEAWAY – Trained by Mark Casse, ridden by Jose Lezcano. Broke his maiden in May of 2018 and this will be his 10th career start having won races at seven different tracks and on three different surfaces (synthetic, dirt and grass). He has a win over this track as well, something most of these horses cannot say. Nothing not to like about this horse. He has come in second to GOOD MAGIC and QUIP (scratched with injury from the race) and has beaten CATHOLIC COWBOY (be on under card) and VINO ROSSO. Concern will be distance, but this horse can battle.
SOLOMINI – Trained by Bob Baffert, ridden by Flavien Pratt. Broke his maiden on 9/2/17. This will be his seventh career start having been in the money in every race, but only winning his career start. As good as Baffert is, it will be a stretch to see this one winning. Lost rather convincingly to MAGNUM MOON twice, once he had the perfect rail trip while MAGNUM MOON went 4 wide and he could not gain on him in the stretch. Although he has raced in graded stakes races his entire career, I would not be shocked if this horse is entered in another race on Derby day.
BRAVAZO – Trained by D. Wayne Lucas, ridden by ????. Broke his maiden on 9/16/17 and this will be his ninth career start. This horse is puzzling. Won two races in a row including the Risen Star Stakes beating NOBLE INDY and SNAPPER SINCLAIR, then throws a dud in the Louisiana Derby losing by 21 lengths. Watching both races, you can see this horse does not like dirt in his face. That is not a good sign for the Derby with 20 horses and some very fast horses up front.
MY BOY JACK – Trained by Keith Desormeaux, ridden by Kent Desormeaux. His first race was in June of 2017, but broke his maiden five races later in October. He has since run in five more races making the Derby his 11th career start. He is the deep closer in the field and Kent Desormeaux thrives in that roll. If the track is wet, this horse may go off as the favorite. With the speed in this race, it may set up for a deep closer. Be in all exotics.
PROMISES FULFILLED – Trained by Dale Romans, ridden by Corey Lanerie. Broke his maiden on 9/17/17. This will be his sixth career start. I was optimistic for this horse after he won the Fountain of Youth and I even put an early wager on him in the Derby Future pools. He is a front-runner, who will have hard time keeping pace with others in here. Love the jockey trainer combination, but I think he is up against it in this race.
FREE DROP BILLY – Trained by Dale Romans, ridden by Robby Albarado. Broke his maiden on 6/15/17. This will be his ninth career start. Has not been running as well this year and was beat rather handily by the top tier horses in here including GOOD MAGIC, AUDIBLE, and FLAMEAWAY. He is a closer and will keep running in the end, but will not be in the winner’s circle.
LONE SAILOR – Trained by Tom Amoss, ridden by James Graham. Broke his maiden in second career start on 9/3/17. This will be his eighth career start. Has not won any race since his maiden win. Ran very well his last race coming in second to NOBLE INDY where he actually had the lead in deep stretch, but could not hold on, losing by a head. If the horse got anything out of that race and could step forward off the effort, you never know. Best race yet.
HOFBURG – Trained by Bill Mott, ridden by Irad Ortiz. Saw this horse run on Labor Day weekend at Saratoga. I put him in my virtual stable. He was put on the shelf until this past March when he broke his maiden. They entered him in the Florida Derby off the maiden win and he came in second. Third race of the form cycle is always my favorite, particularly off the lay-off. He does not fit my Derby theory, but man does this horse looks dangerous. He did not lose by much too AUDIBLE. His sire is TAPIT and he has A.P. INDY on both sides of the breeding shed along with UNBRIDLED on stud side and DEPUTY MINISTER on mare side. I think he gained a lot from that race and although he may not win exotics are a legit shot at a price. Keep an eye on this horse for future races, Belmont and Travers Stakes in particular.
FIRENZE FIRE – Trained by Jason Servis, ridden by Paco Lopez. Broke his maiden in career debut on 6/18/17. This will be his tenth career start. Has been beaten solidly the last few races in the Gotham and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He is a decent horse, but the grueling 1 ¼ – mile distance will have this horse well back of even the 4th place finisher.
COMBATANT – Trained by Steve Asmussen, ridden by ????. Broke his maiden in second career start on 10/29/17. This will be his eighth career start. He is a closer who will just keep running. Had three consecutive second place finishes at one point then a third place finish in the Rebel Stakes before getting a career worst 4th in the Arkansas Derby. I expect Ricardo Santana Jr. to ride and he a good jockey at Churchill. Will not be on my win ticket, but superfecta bets are must.
INSTILLED REGARD – Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, ridden by ????. Broke his maiden in third career start on 10/29/17. Sits on number 20 in the entry field, getting in after QUIP was pulled out of the race. Has not shown much of anything, in fact I have never even heard of this horse until today while looking at the entries. Not a chance.
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