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Belmont Stakes Breakdown
June 8, 2017
The third leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 149th running of the Belmont Stakes!
Belmont Stakes ML Odds
2017 BREAKDOWN
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)
1 - Twisted Tom 20-1 Javier Castellano (0-10) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: He’s won all three dirt starts since Brown switched him back after a pair of turf starts. He’s also perfect in all three of his starts with blinkers and around two turns. And apparently, according to some people I truly respect, there is a TON of distance producing mares on his dam side. These guys teamed up to win the Preakness with Cloud Computing, he’s consistent and will likely be a big price on the tote board. I’ll use him in all of my exotic wagers and in a saver pick 4 ticket or two.
2 - Tapwrit 6/1 Jose Ortiz (0-2) Todd Pletcher (2-22)
Notes: He was the first horse bothered when Irish War Cry made a left hand turn coming out of the gate, costing him some position early. He encountered a couple of traffic jams as he made his way through the pack then stayed on through the stretch as his stablemate Always Dreaming splashed home to take the roses. I know he was on the inside part of the track through the stretch, which is where you wanted to be, but he was running on and not losing any ground. I don’t think it mattered where he was. His sire Tapit has won two of the last three Belmonts with Tonalist in 2014, Creator last year and his Frosted was second to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015. And while I have mocked Pletcher’s Derby record for years, he’s won two of these and finished second four times, including narrow defeats with Commissioner and Destin. I think he’ll be closer than usual, make his run on the far turn and win the 2017 Belmont Stakes!!!
3 - Gormley 8/1 Victor Espinoza (1-5) John Shirreffs (0-2)
Notes: Was able to avoid the traffic trouble at the start of the Derby when breaking from post 18 and actually worked out a decent enough trip from that draw. He was just about five lengths off the early lead and ranged up like he was going to do some damage before flattening out off the turn. He’s a multiple G1 winner, just one of two in the field along with Classic Empire, but his wins have been on the slow side and he’s not really bred for the distance. Pass
4 - J Boys Echo 15/1 Robby Albarado (0-5) Dale Romans (0-8)
Notes: He beat eventual Preakness winner handily in the Gotham, one of the fastest Derby preps of the season but came back to do little running in the Blue Grass and even less in the Derby. I know people are saying he had some trouble at the start of the Derby but I thought others had it much worse. The more he steps on the track, the more it looks like the Gotham was the exception and not the rule when it comes to his form. Pass.
5 - Hollywood Handsome 30/1 Florent Geroux (0-1) Dallas Stewart (0-7)
Notes: It took him five starts to break his maiden, then four more to take down the entry level allowance condition. He was an also-ran in his two graded stakes tries and his trainer hemmed and hawed as to whether or not he’d run before finally deciding earlier this week. An easy toss when you add in his middle-distance pedigree.
6 - Lookin At Lee 5/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (1-3) Steve Asmussen (1-4)
Notes: Look, I’ve always been a fan of this horse and spent the better part of the past four months making excuses for him. Bottom line is he is winless in all eight of his starts at two turns. EIGHT. He levels off at the same point of all his races, not a great sign when you consider he has to negotiate an extra quarter of a mile in here. This trainer/jockey combo teamed up just last year to win this with Creator, something that won’t be lost on the bettors. Deep closers tend not to win this race, especially ones that probably don’t want anything to do with the trip. Sorry, pal….not this time.
7 - Irish War Cry 7/2 Rajiv Maragh (0-4) Graham Motion (0-3)
Notes: Will the real Irish War Cry please stand up? The “good” IWC, the won that won the Holy Bull and Wood Memorial deserves to be the morning line favorite. The “bad” one, the one from the Fountain of Youth and Kentucky Derby, doesn’t. He was one of the front runners that didn’t survive in Louisville on a track that favored speed, which is not a good sign at all. His sire Curlin duked it out with Rags to Riches 10 years ago and wound up on the wrong end of a photo finish in this event. Plus, Motion didn’t decide this was a go until Sunday. Ultimately I don’t think he’s going to handle the distance, especially with some company on the front end.
8 - Senior Investment 12/1 Channing Hill (Debut) Ken McPeek (1-6)
Notes: He’s made up copious amounts of ground in his last two, a win in the Lexington and to grab the show dough in the Preakness, but he’s soooo far back in the early running. Those types hardly win this. And I’m not too sure he has enough gas early to be kept closer by hill. I think he’s a one trick pony when his running style is concerned. He’s also gotta come back in just three weeks off of a career best effort. Not for me.
9 - Meantime 15/1 Mike Smith (2-18) Brian Lynch (Debut)
Notes: Son of 2011 Preakness winner Shackleford should be the speed of the speed in here under his Hall of Fame pilot. Broke his maiden in mud two starts back, his lone start around two turns, before setting the pace and settling for second in the Peter Pan last out behind a sophomore with a BIG future from the Chad Brown barn, Timeline. If I thought he’d get loose on the lead, I’d consider him for a minor award. But after the draw I have to think he’s going to be surrounded early on. I’ll pass.
10 - Multiplier 15/1 Joel Rosario (1-6) Brendan Walsh (Debut)
Notes: Despite his middle distance pedigree, he’s raced exclusively around two turns his entire five race career. He closed nicely to win the Illinois Derby two back before finding some trouble in the Preakness in deep stretch. Was one of four that hit the line within a length of each other for third but unfortunately for his connections he finished sixth. He’s gained ground in every single one of his starts and going this distance that’s a good thing. I’m just having a really tough time getting past his breeding. I’ll use him in my exotic plays at a price.
11 - Epicharis 4/1 Christophe Lemaire (Debut) Kiyoshi Hagiwara (Debut)
Notes: Connections passed on a Derby run despite being eligible via his win in the Hyacinth in his native Japan back in February. He was second to Thunder Snow in the U.A.E. Derby last out some 10 weeks ago when he was last seen. So, he has to go 12 furlongs off of a two and a half month break after travelling halfway around the world. There has also been a confirmed report that he was treated for possible lameness in his right front hoof. Seems like an awful lot for him to handle. I’ll use him protectively in my exotics because I’m not sure how good he is and not thrilled with most of the others in here.
12 - Patch 12/1 John Velazquez (2-20) Todd Pletcher (2-22)
Notes: The one-eyed wonder took a ton of casual/sentimental money in the Derby and will probably do that same in here. BUT….he’s by 2012 Belmont winner Union Rags and out of a mare sired by 1992 Belmont victor A.P. Indy so the pedigree is there. He gets the services of Hall of Famer Johnny V in the saddle. He didn’t get into a lot of trouble in the Derby. I believe he didn’t handle the off track. I think he’s going to run very well. Using him in all of my gimmicks and some multi-race exotics.
June 8, 2017
The third leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 149th running of the Belmont Stakes!
Belmont Stakes ML Odds
2017 BREAKDOWN
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)
1 - Twisted Tom 20-1 Javier Castellano (0-10) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: He’s won all three dirt starts since Brown switched him back after a pair of turf starts. He’s also perfect in all three of his starts with blinkers and around two turns. And apparently, according to some people I truly respect, there is a TON of distance producing mares on his dam side. These guys teamed up to win the Preakness with Cloud Computing, he’s consistent and will likely be a big price on the tote board. I’ll use him in all of my exotic wagers and in a saver pick 4 ticket or two.
2 - Tapwrit 6/1 Jose Ortiz (0-2) Todd Pletcher (2-22)
Notes: He was the first horse bothered when Irish War Cry made a left hand turn coming out of the gate, costing him some position early. He encountered a couple of traffic jams as he made his way through the pack then stayed on through the stretch as his stablemate Always Dreaming splashed home to take the roses. I know he was on the inside part of the track through the stretch, which is where you wanted to be, but he was running on and not losing any ground. I don’t think it mattered where he was. His sire Tapit has won two of the last three Belmonts with Tonalist in 2014, Creator last year and his Frosted was second to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015. And while I have mocked Pletcher’s Derby record for years, he’s won two of these and finished second four times, including narrow defeats with Commissioner and Destin. I think he’ll be closer than usual, make his run on the far turn and win the 2017 Belmont Stakes!!!
3 - Gormley 8/1 Victor Espinoza (1-5) John Shirreffs (0-2)
Notes: Was able to avoid the traffic trouble at the start of the Derby when breaking from post 18 and actually worked out a decent enough trip from that draw. He was just about five lengths off the early lead and ranged up like he was going to do some damage before flattening out off the turn. He’s a multiple G1 winner, just one of two in the field along with Classic Empire, but his wins have been on the slow side and he’s not really bred for the distance. Pass
4 - J Boys Echo 15/1 Robby Albarado (0-5) Dale Romans (0-8)
Notes: He beat eventual Preakness winner handily in the Gotham, one of the fastest Derby preps of the season but came back to do little running in the Blue Grass and even less in the Derby. I know people are saying he had some trouble at the start of the Derby but I thought others had it much worse. The more he steps on the track, the more it looks like the Gotham was the exception and not the rule when it comes to his form. Pass.
5 - Hollywood Handsome 30/1 Florent Geroux (0-1) Dallas Stewart (0-7)
Notes: It took him five starts to break his maiden, then four more to take down the entry level allowance condition. He was an also-ran in his two graded stakes tries and his trainer hemmed and hawed as to whether or not he’d run before finally deciding earlier this week. An easy toss when you add in his middle-distance pedigree.
6 - Lookin At Lee 5/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (1-3) Steve Asmussen (1-4)
Notes: Look, I’ve always been a fan of this horse and spent the better part of the past four months making excuses for him. Bottom line is he is winless in all eight of his starts at two turns. EIGHT. He levels off at the same point of all his races, not a great sign when you consider he has to negotiate an extra quarter of a mile in here. This trainer/jockey combo teamed up just last year to win this with Creator, something that won’t be lost on the bettors. Deep closers tend not to win this race, especially ones that probably don’t want anything to do with the trip. Sorry, pal….not this time.
7 - Irish War Cry 7/2 Rajiv Maragh (0-4) Graham Motion (0-3)
Notes: Will the real Irish War Cry please stand up? The “good” IWC, the won that won the Holy Bull and Wood Memorial deserves to be the morning line favorite. The “bad” one, the one from the Fountain of Youth and Kentucky Derby, doesn’t. He was one of the front runners that didn’t survive in Louisville on a track that favored speed, which is not a good sign at all. His sire Curlin duked it out with Rags to Riches 10 years ago and wound up on the wrong end of a photo finish in this event. Plus, Motion didn’t decide this was a go until Sunday. Ultimately I don’t think he’s going to handle the distance, especially with some company on the front end.
8 - Senior Investment 12/1 Channing Hill (Debut) Ken McPeek (1-6)
Notes: He’s made up copious amounts of ground in his last two, a win in the Lexington and to grab the show dough in the Preakness, but he’s soooo far back in the early running. Those types hardly win this. And I’m not too sure he has enough gas early to be kept closer by hill. I think he’s a one trick pony when his running style is concerned. He’s also gotta come back in just three weeks off of a career best effort. Not for me.
9 - Meantime 15/1 Mike Smith (2-18) Brian Lynch (Debut)
Notes: Son of 2011 Preakness winner Shackleford should be the speed of the speed in here under his Hall of Fame pilot. Broke his maiden in mud two starts back, his lone start around two turns, before setting the pace and settling for second in the Peter Pan last out behind a sophomore with a BIG future from the Chad Brown barn, Timeline. If I thought he’d get loose on the lead, I’d consider him for a minor award. But after the draw I have to think he’s going to be surrounded early on. I’ll pass.
10 - Multiplier 15/1 Joel Rosario (1-6) Brendan Walsh (Debut)
Notes: Despite his middle distance pedigree, he’s raced exclusively around two turns his entire five race career. He closed nicely to win the Illinois Derby two back before finding some trouble in the Preakness in deep stretch. Was one of four that hit the line within a length of each other for third but unfortunately for his connections he finished sixth. He’s gained ground in every single one of his starts and going this distance that’s a good thing. I’m just having a really tough time getting past his breeding. I’ll use him in my exotic plays at a price.
11 - Epicharis 4/1 Christophe Lemaire (Debut) Kiyoshi Hagiwara (Debut)
Notes: Connections passed on a Derby run despite being eligible via his win in the Hyacinth in his native Japan back in February. He was second to Thunder Snow in the U.A.E. Derby last out some 10 weeks ago when he was last seen. So, he has to go 12 furlongs off of a two and a half month break after travelling halfway around the world. There has also been a confirmed report that he was treated for possible lameness in his right front hoof. Seems like an awful lot for him to handle. I’ll use him protectively in my exotics because I’m not sure how good he is and not thrilled with most of the others in here.
12 - Patch 12/1 John Velazquez (2-20) Todd Pletcher (2-22)
Notes: The one-eyed wonder took a ton of casual/sentimental money in the Derby and will probably do that same in here. BUT….he’s by 2012 Belmont winner Union Rags and out of a mare sired by 1992 Belmont victor A.P. Indy so the pedigree is there. He gets the services of Hall of Famer Johnny V in the saddle. He didn’t get into a lot of trouble in the Derby. I believe he didn’t handle the off track. I think he’s going to run very well. Using him in all of my gimmicks and some multi-race exotics.
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