Preakness Stakes Breakdown
May 20, 2016
The second leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 141st running of the Preakness Stakes!
Preakness Stakes Odds
2016 BREAKDOWN
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)
1 – Cherry Wine 20/1 Corey Lanerie (Debut) Dale Romans (1-4)
Notes: Was on the outside looking in Louisville due to a lack of Derby points after finishing fourth in the Rebel and third in the Blue Grass. He’ll be making his third start since a ten week break and should be able to save plenty of ground from his inside draw under Lanerie, aka Calvin Borel, Jr. for his love of coming up the rail. There is a pretty good chance of rain and I wouldn’t be surprised if the track is fairly wet, something he shouldn’t mind considering his daylight maiden score in the slop at Churchill last year. Would need things to go perfectly to win this for a guy who trained Shackelford to do just that in 2011 but it wouldn’t stun me if he found his way into the tri or super at a decent price.
2 – Uncle Lino 20/1 Fernando Perez (Debut) Gary Sherlock (Debut)
Notes: His trainer took the mystery out of who’ll be on the lead when he threw down the gauntlet Thursday, announcing that they planned on gunning this guy to the top, pretty much letting the other front runners know that they’ll have to get their Preak on if they want to be on the engine. He comes into this off of a sharp gate-to-wire tally in the California Chrome against lesser at Los Al and my biggest problem with him is his lack of class. He’s been fairly overmatched when he’s tried graded stakes company in the past and now he’s trying to win an American classic. Should be a part of a healthy early pace but nothing more.
3 - Nyquist 3/5 Mario Gutierrez (1-1) Doug O’Neill (1-2)
Notes: I wasn’t buying into him going into the Derby despite his perfect record. I couldn’t believe he was 2-1 and thought he was a sucka bet. Boy, was I wrong. He was forwardly placed into a hot pace, he made his winning move into the teeth of said pace and held off his rival through the lane, turning what I thought to be a well-matched Derby into a proverbial laugher. He looked the winner nearly every step of the way. And maybe he’s just that much better than these. On a fast track, he probably wins this 85% of the time, making him an overlay on the morning line. If it comes up wet, things could be different but he can still certainly win. I can’t pick him at that price because it’s not what I do. So I will make another my official pick and make a win bet on a horse that’ll be a better price but you can be sure he’ll be on every single Pick 4 ticket I punch this Saturday.
4 – Awesome Speed 30/1 Jevian Toledo (Debut) Alan Goldberg (Debut)
Notes: Was elevated to first across town at Laurel in the Tesio last out when he was bumped late by a horse who wound up second in the Peter Pan last Saturday at Belmont. He was on the lead every step of the way except the last few and has done all of his best running on or close to the lead. Figures to have his hands full with Uncle Lino and one or two others up front early before fading late. Not for me.
5 – Exaggerator 3/1 Kent Desormeaux (2-13) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: He ran the race of his life in the Derby but fell 1 ¼ lengths short of Nyquist. Again. Right now, it’s Nyquist 4, Exaggerator 0. But Mother Nature may prove to be his best friend come Saturday because he moves up big time on a wet track, enough to turn the tables I believe. It’s not like Nyquist beats him by insurmountable margins, he just beats him. On a wet track though, it’s an entirely different story. Here’s the thing, however. If it’s dry, I’m going to try and get him out of the number. I feel his best chance to date to get Nyquist was in the Derby and he couldn’t. The dynamics of this race should favor Nyquist more so than him. For those of you loyal readers, you know I’m not one to hedge my bets, but I have to in here. So, to recap, a major player on a wet track, giving Kent a chance to win his third Preakness, but one I’m trying to beat if it’s fast.
6 – Lani 30/1 Yutaka Take (Debut) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: The Japanese import beat more than half the field in the Derby and is the lone carryover, save the first two finishers, from Kentucky. His bad behavior in and around the gate hurt his chances before the real running even begins. His connections have announced that he’s running in all three Triple Crown events and maybe this is part of a journey to their best chance to win one, the Belmont Stakes. I don’t like him in here but check back with me in three weeks.
7 – Collected 10/1 Javier Castellano (1-4) Bob Baffert (6-17)
Notes: On the HRRN draw show Wednesday night, Baffert said this was his favorite stop on the Triple Crown Trail. With six wins under his belt, including last years’ with American Pharoah, who can blame him for saying that? This year, he send a horse that’s a three time stakes winner with a jockey who won this in upset fashion aboard Bernardini in 2006 who also happens to be the guy that won the last three Eclipse Awards for Outstanding Jockey. His human connections notwithstanding, he’s another whose class I seriously doubt. There is plenty of money to be made in places like Indiana and Ohio and West Virginia with a horse like this. But I doubt he’ll make any in Maryland.
8 – Laoban 30/1 Florent Geroux (Debut) Eric Guillot (Debut)
Notes: Was an AE in Kentucky like Cherry Wine but unlike his counterpart this guy is still a maiden. He has a decent enough resume – third in the G3 Sham, second in the G3 Gotham, fourth in the Blue Grass – but he is a MAIDEN. And his eccentric conditioner is taking the blinkers off, a big no-no for me. I never understood equipment changes in the biggest race of a horse’s’ life. Another who likes to be free-wheeling on the lead. I don’t see that happening in here. I’m tossing him.
9 – Abiding Star 30/1 J.D. Acosta (Debut) Ed Allard (Debut)
Notes: Was quarantined at Parx due to an equine herpes virus until earlier this week, leaving his status in doubt until that time. He rides a five race win-streak, one that started in a $40K maiden claimer, into this but does have a couple of minor stakes wins under his belt as well. Another who needs the lead, he’s one of four Uncle Mo’s in the field. That’s probably the best thing you can say about him. Not for me.
10 – Fellowship 30/1 Jose Lezcano (0-1) Mark Casse (0-2)
Notes: When his connections realized they weren’t getting into the Derby, they went with Plan B, the Pat Day Mile, on the undercard, a race he managed to finish fourth in. I’m not great at math but I’m not sure how fourth on the undercard equates to a Preakness run but maybe it’s me. His lone stakes win came against fellow Florida-breds and he’ll need things to go perfectly to even get a small piece of this. I’m tossing him.
11 – Stradivari 8/1 John Velazquez (0-6) Todd Pletcher (0-7)
Notes: He’s my official pick to win this but that’s mainly because he has a ton of upside, he’ll be the best price, by far, of the three horses I think can win this and Pletcher rarely ships them down to Pimlico. The latter is the most intriguing part of this Preakness puzzle, in my opinion. He’s run 45 horses in the Derby, 20 in the Belmont but just seven in here. Why this guy? I know the maiden win followed four-plus months later were both daylight scores but he usually takes a far more conservative approach. He’s won over a wet track and should be able to work out a clean, stalking trip from his outside post. He’s my win bet and I’ll be using him with Nyquist and Exaggerator (if it’s wet) on my Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets.
May 20, 2016
The second leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 141st running of the Preakness Stakes!
Preakness Stakes Odds
2016 BREAKDOWN
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)
1 – Cherry Wine 20/1 Corey Lanerie (Debut) Dale Romans (1-4)
Notes: Was on the outside looking in Louisville due to a lack of Derby points after finishing fourth in the Rebel and third in the Blue Grass. He’ll be making his third start since a ten week break and should be able to save plenty of ground from his inside draw under Lanerie, aka Calvin Borel, Jr. for his love of coming up the rail. There is a pretty good chance of rain and I wouldn’t be surprised if the track is fairly wet, something he shouldn’t mind considering his daylight maiden score in the slop at Churchill last year. Would need things to go perfectly to win this for a guy who trained Shackelford to do just that in 2011 but it wouldn’t stun me if he found his way into the tri or super at a decent price.
2 – Uncle Lino 20/1 Fernando Perez (Debut) Gary Sherlock (Debut)
Notes: His trainer took the mystery out of who’ll be on the lead when he threw down the gauntlet Thursday, announcing that they planned on gunning this guy to the top, pretty much letting the other front runners know that they’ll have to get their Preak on if they want to be on the engine. He comes into this off of a sharp gate-to-wire tally in the California Chrome against lesser at Los Al and my biggest problem with him is his lack of class. He’s been fairly overmatched when he’s tried graded stakes company in the past and now he’s trying to win an American classic. Should be a part of a healthy early pace but nothing more.
3 - Nyquist 3/5 Mario Gutierrez (1-1) Doug O’Neill (1-2)
Notes: I wasn’t buying into him going into the Derby despite his perfect record. I couldn’t believe he was 2-1 and thought he was a sucka bet. Boy, was I wrong. He was forwardly placed into a hot pace, he made his winning move into the teeth of said pace and held off his rival through the lane, turning what I thought to be a well-matched Derby into a proverbial laugher. He looked the winner nearly every step of the way. And maybe he’s just that much better than these. On a fast track, he probably wins this 85% of the time, making him an overlay on the morning line. If it comes up wet, things could be different but he can still certainly win. I can’t pick him at that price because it’s not what I do. So I will make another my official pick and make a win bet on a horse that’ll be a better price but you can be sure he’ll be on every single Pick 4 ticket I punch this Saturday.
4 – Awesome Speed 30/1 Jevian Toledo (Debut) Alan Goldberg (Debut)
Notes: Was elevated to first across town at Laurel in the Tesio last out when he was bumped late by a horse who wound up second in the Peter Pan last Saturday at Belmont. He was on the lead every step of the way except the last few and has done all of his best running on or close to the lead. Figures to have his hands full with Uncle Lino and one or two others up front early before fading late. Not for me.
5 – Exaggerator 3/1 Kent Desormeaux (2-13) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: He ran the race of his life in the Derby but fell 1 ¼ lengths short of Nyquist. Again. Right now, it’s Nyquist 4, Exaggerator 0. But Mother Nature may prove to be his best friend come Saturday because he moves up big time on a wet track, enough to turn the tables I believe. It’s not like Nyquist beats him by insurmountable margins, he just beats him. On a wet track though, it’s an entirely different story. Here’s the thing, however. If it’s dry, I’m going to try and get him out of the number. I feel his best chance to date to get Nyquist was in the Derby and he couldn’t. The dynamics of this race should favor Nyquist more so than him. For those of you loyal readers, you know I’m not one to hedge my bets, but I have to in here. So, to recap, a major player on a wet track, giving Kent a chance to win his third Preakness, but one I’m trying to beat if it’s fast.
6 – Lani 30/1 Yutaka Take (Debut) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: The Japanese import beat more than half the field in the Derby and is the lone carryover, save the first two finishers, from Kentucky. His bad behavior in and around the gate hurt his chances before the real running even begins. His connections have announced that he’s running in all three Triple Crown events and maybe this is part of a journey to their best chance to win one, the Belmont Stakes. I don’t like him in here but check back with me in three weeks.
7 – Collected 10/1 Javier Castellano (1-4) Bob Baffert (6-17)
Notes: On the HRRN draw show Wednesday night, Baffert said this was his favorite stop on the Triple Crown Trail. With six wins under his belt, including last years’ with American Pharoah, who can blame him for saying that? This year, he send a horse that’s a three time stakes winner with a jockey who won this in upset fashion aboard Bernardini in 2006 who also happens to be the guy that won the last three Eclipse Awards for Outstanding Jockey. His human connections notwithstanding, he’s another whose class I seriously doubt. There is plenty of money to be made in places like Indiana and Ohio and West Virginia with a horse like this. But I doubt he’ll make any in Maryland.
8 – Laoban 30/1 Florent Geroux (Debut) Eric Guillot (Debut)
Notes: Was an AE in Kentucky like Cherry Wine but unlike his counterpart this guy is still a maiden. He has a decent enough resume – third in the G3 Sham, second in the G3 Gotham, fourth in the Blue Grass – but he is a MAIDEN. And his eccentric conditioner is taking the blinkers off, a big no-no for me. I never understood equipment changes in the biggest race of a horse’s’ life. Another who likes to be free-wheeling on the lead. I don’t see that happening in here. I’m tossing him.
9 – Abiding Star 30/1 J.D. Acosta (Debut) Ed Allard (Debut)
Notes: Was quarantined at Parx due to an equine herpes virus until earlier this week, leaving his status in doubt until that time. He rides a five race win-streak, one that started in a $40K maiden claimer, into this but does have a couple of minor stakes wins under his belt as well. Another who needs the lead, he’s one of four Uncle Mo’s in the field. That’s probably the best thing you can say about him. Not for me.
10 – Fellowship 30/1 Jose Lezcano (0-1) Mark Casse (0-2)
Notes: When his connections realized they weren’t getting into the Derby, they went with Plan B, the Pat Day Mile, on the undercard, a race he managed to finish fourth in. I’m not great at math but I’m not sure how fourth on the undercard equates to a Preakness run but maybe it’s me. His lone stakes win came against fellow Florida-breds and he’ll need things to go perfectly to even get a small piece of this. I’m tossing him.
11 – Stradivari 8/1 John Velazquez (0-6) Todd Pletcher (0-7)
Notes: He’s my official pick to win this but that’s mainly because he has a ton of upside, he’ll be the best price, by far, of the three horses I think can win this and Pletcher rarely ships them down to Pimlico. The latter is the most intriguing part of this Preakness puzzle, in my opinion. He’s run 45 horses in the Derby, 20 in the Belmont but just seven in here. Why this guy? I know the maiden win followed four-plus months later were both daylight scores but he usually takes a far more conservative approach. He’s won over a wet track and should be able to work out a clean, stalking trip from his outside post. He’s my win bet and I’ll be using him with Nyquist and Exaggerator (if it’s wet) on my Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets.
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