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Kentucky Derby Breakdown
2016 BREAKDOWN
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Derby Record) Trainer (Derby Record)
1 - Trojan Nation (50/1) Aaron Gryder (0-3) Patrick Gallagher (0-1)
Notes: There is a reason a maiden hasn’t won this race in over eighty years and that’s because it is arguably the toughest race in the world to win. Plus, he’s picking one of the most contentious runnings to try and pull off a seemingly impossible task. The only race on his card I remotely like is his second place finish in the Wood Memorial last out but I think he just freaked over a surface a few of his rivals didn’t love. Not sure I’d bet him in a maiden race on the undercard. A complete toss out.
2 – Suddenbreakingnews (20/1) Luis Quinonez (Debut) Donnie Von Hemel (Debut)
Notes: He burst on the scene with a rousing last to first run in the Southwest but couldn’t find the winners’ circle in his last two, including a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby last out. There are a ton of deep, one run closers in this group and frankly he hasn’t done anything to overly impress me. If you’re on social media, however, you’ll know he is a darling of many and sort of the “wise-guy” horse you see every single year so he’ll probably take some money. It’s a wide open year, and 15 of them can hit the board, including him, I’m just not sold he can finish first or second.
3 – Creator (10/1) Ricardo Santana, Jr. (0-1) Steve Asmussen (0-13)
Notes: Of all the deep closers in this race, I’m most impressed with him because he’s made up his ground while navigating through traffic instead of going around it. He’s never seven, eight or nine wide. He’s right in the thick of things. He knifed his was through a bulky field in the Arkansas Derby last out and outkicked horses that had the jump on him. My biggest problem with him is that five or six others figure to be launching their bids when he does. Makes for an awfully crowded stretch run. It’s awfully tough for horses like him to win this race for the most part but he might just be good enough. On all of my exotic tickets and some of my multi-race wagers.
4 - Mo Tom (20/1) Corey Lanerie (0-1) Tom Amoss (0-4)
Notes: He’s provided the soap opera on the Trail this year. After a stretch drive in the Risen Star that saw him take up in the midst of what appeared to be a winning move, many wondered not if but by how far would he win the Louisiana Derby. When his rider went inside, again, and got stopped, again, we waited to see if Lanerie would keep the mount for the Derby. They dragged it out a week or so but finally announced that he would in fact ride. What I find funny is that fact that such a deal is made over him. He’s another one run closer in a race full of them. I feel confident in saying two things: Lanerie will have him on the outside and he won’t be in the exacta. Use only in the bottom half of tris and supers.
5 - Gun Runner 10/1) Florent Geroux (Debut) Steve Asmussen (0-13)
Notes: The draw didn’t really hurt any of the main contenders, save one or two, but this guy really benefitted from it. The four horses to his inside and three to his outside don’t have much, if any, early speed which should allow him to get a trip similar to the last two he’s had that resulted in Risen Star and Louisiana Derby scores. He hasn’t run in six weeks and only has two preps this year but did win his debut and off of a three month break to start this season. Asmussen was announced as a recent inductee to the Hall of Fame this year up in Saratoga in August and he could make it his most memorable yet with a win in the race every trainer wants to win. He has it all and should be right around his morning line odds. On all of my exotic tickets and most of my multi-race wagers.
6 - My Man Sam 20/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-1) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: In his little time on the racetrack, this colt has impressed me. I loved his second place finish to up and comer Matt King Coal on a speed biased course that aided the winner two back and loved his late rally to get the place money in the Blue Grass. He gets reunited with the jock that rode him in his first three but it’s worth noting that Ortiz has won one race at Churchill on the dirt while Leparoux, who was aboard last out, has won 10 riding titles. I feel that of all the “deep closers,” he’s the one that could in fact lay a bit closer. At that price I hope I’m right. Using him on most of my exotic tickets and I will save with him in my multi-race wagers.
7 - Oscar Nominated 50/1 Julien Leparoux (0-8) Mike Maker (0-8)
Notes: The Ramseys are putting up $200K to supplement this horse to the Triple Crown and I can think of 200K better things to do with the money. He’s never run on conventional dirt. Ever. All turf and one synthetic start, his win in the Spiral last out in which he was probably third best. His pedigree lends to added distance…..on the grass. There aren’t too many I’m completely tossing from everything this year but he is one of them.
8 – Lani 30/1 Yutaka Take (0-1) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: This year’s mystery horse from Dubai, by way of Japan who just so happens to be bred in Kentucky. He’s taken the long way to get back to the Bluegrass State if you ask me. Look, people are impressed by the fact that he’s beaten fields of 15 and 16, that his races are all over a distance of ground and that he’s by Tapit. That’s all well and good but keep in mind he beat a filly who had a miserable trip in his points race, the U.A.E. Derby, has had strange training regimen since arriving here, to say the least and is rumored to be a head case. Sounds like a recipe for disaster if you ask me. Besides, I saw this movie last year when the lead role went to Mubtaahij. That ending stunk. This one doesn’t figure to be much better. I’m tossing him.
9 – Destin 15/1 Javier Castellano (0-9) Todd Pletcher (1-43)
Notes: He’s going to try and buck a ton of history as this will be his first start in eight weeks and he’s never raced past 1 1/16 miles. He looked good winning the Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby but they both came at Tampa Bay Downs, one of the quirkiest racing surfaces in the land. Horses often love it or hate it. He obviously fell into the first column. I don’t think I’m saying anything groundbreaking when I say something has to be up because you don’t attack this race the way he is doing so unless you have to. Combine that with Pletcher’s record in this and the fact that his presence, as well as Castellano’s will lead to this horse taking some money and he’s an easy toss for me.
10 – Whitmore 20/1 Victor Espinoza (3-7) Ron Moquett (0-1)
Notes: One of a few that has given me fits this year. I feel like he always runs a good race yet always manages to find a way to lose. It bugs me that he’s won both of his sprints and he’s winless in his four starts around two turns and that he always seems to be losing ground at the end of his distance races. But he’s had excuses in almost all of them, namely last out when he clipped heels and almost went down a few strides out of the gate when he was third in the Arkansas Derby. With hopes of getting him in the game a bit earlier on, his connections have reached out to 2002, 2014 and 2015 Derby winner Espinoza. He won all three of those on or close to the lead and while I’m not saying he’ll be forwardly placed I feel like he’ll be closer early on than he has been in a long while. And that makes him a player. On all of my exotic tickets and most of my multi-race wagers.
11 – Exaggerator 8/1 Kent Desormeaux (3-19) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: I think part of the reason this Derby puzzle seems especially tough this year is because three of the final, major preps were run over wet tracks, including the Santa Anita Derby where this guy blew their doors off with a scintillating move approaching the far turn. It’s doubly tough to figure out how much the track played a part with him because many felt he was sitting on that kind of race BUT he had great wet track form in the past. I feel like it was a combination of both, but I don’t like the fact that his connections have made it clear they plan to use the same tactics – take back and make one big run – in here. Running past seven at Santa Anita is lot different than 19 in Kentucky in this race, especially this year, as there figures to be a bigger crowd at the tail end of the bunch than anywhere else. His rider has won this in 1998, 2000 and 2008 and would love to get number four for his brother. On some of my exotic tickets and I will save with him in my multi-race wagers.
12 - Tom’s Ready 30/1 Brian Hernandez, Jr. (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-4)
Notes: He hails from a barn that has been uncanny and getting longshots to run at big prices on racings’ biggest stages. After that, I don’t have a lot of good things to say, if any. He’s won just once in nine starts (it did come at Churchill) and it looks to me like he doesn’t want to go a step past a mile, a theory supported by his breeding and previous races. He was second in the Louisiana Derby last out because someone had to be and his buddy Mo Tom got stopped cold along the rail. One of just a handful that is a complete toss for me.
13 – Nyquist 3/1 Mario Gutierrez (1-1) Doug O’Neill (1-4)
Notes: The juvenile Eclipse champ has done nothing wrong, as he’s undefeated in his seven race career. His connections all teamed up to win this in 2012 with I’ll Have Another. California based runners have won the last two runnings and three of the last four. He’s by one of the hottest sires in the land, Uncle Mo. What could possibly stop him? Well, there is always the extra furlong, which some, including me, are dubious of when it comes to his pedigree. Then there is the issue of his schedule. I’m not a big fan of just two preps, especially when one of them is seven furlongs. But, if you’re trying to win a nine furlong race, like they did last out in the Florida Derby when he was alive for a $1 million bonus. It sounds ridiculous, but I think their Derby, at the very least their Derby payday, was last time. He’s going to be the clear cut favorite, say 3-1 or 7-2 and in a year that is completely wide open there is nothing better than getting the chalk out of the number. I’m trying to beat him on top but understand if you don’t.
14 – Mohaymen 10/1 Junior Alvarado (Debut) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-6)
Notes: I have never seen a bandwagon empty like his did in the minutes after he lost the epic, East versus West, battle of the undefeateds in the Florida Derby to Nyquist. He went from number one to number done. His rider has said he didn’t feel like the “real Mohaymen” as soon as he climbed aboard and his trainer has gone on the record saying he’s had two bad minutes, those two, in his entire career. That was a quirky track at Gulfstream that day. It rained, dried out, rained again. Quirky to say the least. Maybe he didn’t like it. Maybe it was something else. Maybe it was both. All I know is that the last time a McLaughlin runner lost a prep many thought he’d win it was last year with Frosted, who fell apart in the stretch of the Fountain of Youth. When he returned six weeks later, he rolled in the Wood Memorial. There aren’t many better at picking them apart, stripping them down and building them back up than Kiaran. With all of that said, he’s my pick to win Kentucky Derby 142!!!
15 – Outwork 15/1 John Velazquez (1-17) Todd Pletcher (1-43)
Notes: He’s a length away from being undefeated in his four starts and is already a G1 winner. He’s got speed, which only one or two others in here can brag about and sports connections that have literally won hundreds of races as a team. His pedigree, especially that Empire Maker dam, lead me to believe the distance shouldn’t be an issue and a front end trip, as long as he doesn’t get cooked in a duel with Danzing Candy, should make his job that much easier. If you’re looking for a knock, he beat a maiden in the slowest Wood Memorial ever run in its’ 92 year history last out and Pletcher, who won this in 2010 with Super Saver, has an abysmal record in the event. Still, he’s in the capable hands of Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who won the 2011 Derby aboard Animal Kingdom when this horse’s sire, Uncle Mo, was scratched days before the race, and he should get a dream trip. On all of my exotic tickets and some of my multi-race wagers.
16 – Shagaf 20/1 Joel Rosario (1-6) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: He won his first two starts around one turn impressively then grinded out a win in the Gotham over the maiden Laoban in his two turn debut when it appeared as if he didn’t like running inside horses. He saved ground again in the Wood Memorial but didn’t kick in through the stretch. Maybe it was the trip or the mud or his immaturity. This horse has talent and maybe that proverbial lightbulb just needs to go off. It’s tough to bank on that in here. I’ve thought for a while that he was a Belmont Stakes kind of horse – break, lay three lengths off the lead and make a sustained run – and maybe the best way to get him there is by running in here. New jock Rosario won this in 2013 so maybe he can wake him up. I don’t think he’ll be in the exacta but could be persuaded into using him on the bottom end of other exotics.
17 - Mor Spirit 12/1 Gary Stevens (3-21) Bob Baffert (4-26)
Notes: No horse has more accomplished human connections as Stevens won this in 1988, 1995 and in 1997 with Baffert trainee Silver Charm while Baffert won three others in 1998, 2002 and last year with American Pharoah. He’s already a G1 winner having taken the Los Alamitos Futurity, owns a won and a couple of seconds and runs like the distance shouldn’t be a problem. All the makings of a Derby winner, right? Wrong. I have NEVER liked this horse. I hate the way he travels and think he won the phoniest G1 race ever and has beaten up on weaker foes. When he runs into horses that have a smidge of talent, like Danzing Candy and Exaggerator, he proves to be no match. He’ll take a ton of money but not a dollar of it will be mine.
18 – Majesto 30/1 Emisael Jaramillo (Debut) Gustavo Delgado (Debut)
Notes: Tough to like this guy with just one win from six starts to his name. And you could have clocked him with an egg timer from the quarter pole home when he broke his maiden in start five. He parlayed a perfect trip into a second place finish in the Florida Derby last out. I wouldn’t be sold on him winning an entry level allowance contest at this point so I’m certainly not using him in here.
19 - Brody’s Cause 12/1 Luis Saez (0-3) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: I believe there are two horses for courses in here. Destin is one. He is the other. He LOVES Keeneland, having won both of his G1s, including the Blue Grass last out, there and finished third in the B.C Juvenile. He’s gotten great set ups in all three of those races as well. I don’t envision that happening here. Post shouldn’t hurt as he’ll be part of the cavalry in the latter part of the race but I don’t think he’s good enough. While I rate My Man Sam a chance, he’s still eligible for an entry level allowance while Cherry Winer and Laoban are the two AEs in here because they didn’t have enough points to get in. That’s who he beat last time out. I know he broke his maiden over this course but that’s not enough to sway me. He can get a minor award, I guess, but I’m going to let him beat me.
20 - Danzing Candy 15/1 Mike Smith (1-21) Clifford Sise, Jr. (Debut)
Notes: I had a really tough time deciding what to do with this guy. Then my buddy Rob Toscano pointed out that the longer the run-ups to the first turn of his two turn races have been the faster he’s gone in the early going. If that pattern holds form, we’re in for a serious opening half mile or so as he’ll have around 3/8ths of a mile before he hits the first bend. Combine that with his trainer saying the things that made him come to Kentucky after an abysmal effort out in the Santa Anita Derby are “owners,” and his post draw and it made my decision much, much easier. I want nothing to do with him.
21 - Laoban (AE) Cornelio Velasquez (0-4) Eric Guillot. (Debut)
Notes: If he gets in he’ll break from an outside post, likely next to the controlling speed. As a fellow front runner, that doesn’t bode well. Oh, by the way, like Trojan Nation, he’s a maiden. No thanks.
22 – Cherry Wine (AE) Robby Albarado (0-14) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: He needs two to scratch to get in and I know a lot of people have been waiting for him to really strut his stuff. I don’t know where they’ve seen this “stuff” before because I’ve never been a fan but that’s what makes this world go around. I’ll pass
2016 BREAKDOWN
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Derby Record) Trainer (Derby Record)
1 - Trojan Nation (50/1) Aaron Gryder (0-3) Patrick Gallagher (0-1)
Notes: There is a reason a maiden hasn’t won this race in over eighty years and that’s because it is arguably the toughest race in the world to win. Plus, he’s picking one of the most contentious runnings to try and pull off a seemingly impossible task. The only race on his card I remotely like is his second place finish in the Wood Memorial last out but I think he just freaked over a surface a few of his rivals didn’t love. Not sure I’d bet him in a maiden race on the undercard. A complete toss out.
2 – Suddenbreakingnews (20/1) Luis Quinonez (Debut) Donnie Von Hemel (Debut)
Notes: He burst on the scene with a rousing last to first run in the Southwest but couldn’t find the winners’ circle in his last two, including a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby last out. There are a ton of deep, one run closers in this group and frankly he hasn’t done anything to overly impress me. If you’re on social media, however, you’ll know he is a darling of many and sort of the “wise-guy” horse you see every single year so he’ll probably take some money. It’s a wide open year, and 15 of them can hit the board, including him, I’m just not sold he can finish first or second.
3 – Creator (10/1) Ricardo Santana, Jr. (0-1) Steve Asmussen (0-13)
Notes: Of all the deep closers in this race, I’m most impressed with him because he’s made up his ground while navigating through traffic instead of going around it. He’s never seven, eight or nine wide. He’s right in the thick of things. He knifed his was through a bulky field in the Arkansas Derby last out and outkicked horses that had the jump on him. My biggest problem with him is that five or six others figure to be launching their bids when he does. Makes for an awfully crowded stretch run. It’s awfully tough for horses like him to win this race for the most part but he might just be good enough. On all of my exotic tickets and some of my multi-race wagers.
4 - Mo Tom (20/1) Corey Lanerie (0-1) Tom Amoss (0-4)
Notes: He’s provided the soap opera on the Trail this year. After a stretch drive in the Risen Star that saw him take up in the midst of what appeared to be a winning move, many wondered not if but by how far would he win the Louisiana Derby. When his rider went inside, again, and got stopped, again, we waited to see if Lanerie would keep the mount for the Derby. They dragged it out a week or so but finally announced that he would in fact ride. What I find funny is that fact that such a deal is made over him. He’s another one run closer in a race full of them. I feel confident in saying two things: Lanerie will have him on the outside and he won’t be in the exacta. Use only in the bottom half of tris and supers.
5 - Gun Runner 10/1) Florent Geroux (Debut) Steve Asmussen (0-13)
Notes: The draw didn’t really hurt any of the main contenders, save one or two, but this guy really benefitted from it. The four horses to his inside and three to his outside don’t have much, if any, early speed which should allow him to get a trip similar to the last two he’s had that resulted in Risen Star and Louisiana Derby scores. He hasn’t run in six weeks and only has two preps this year but did win his debut and off of a three month break to start this season. Asmussen was announced as a recent inductee to the Hall of Fame this year up in Saratoga in August and he could make it his most memorable yet with a win in the race every trainer wants to win. He has it all and should be right around his morning line odds. On all of my exotic tickets and most of my multi-race wagers.
6 - My Man Sam 20/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-1) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: In his little time on the racetrack, this colt has impressed me. I loved his second place finish to up and comer Matt King Coal on a speed biased course that aided the winner two back and loved his late rally to get the place money in the Blue Grass. He gets reunited with the jock that rode him in his first three but it’s worth noting that Ortiz has won one race at Churchill on the dirt while Leparoux, who was aboard last out, has won 10 riding titles. I feel that of all the “deep closers,” he’s the one that could in fact lay a bit closer. At that price I hope I’m right. Using him on most of my exotic tickets and I will save with him in my multi-race wagers.
7 - Oscar Nominated 50/1 Julien Leparoux (0-8) Mike Maker (0-8)
Notes: The Ramseys are putting up $200K to supplement this horse to the Triple Crown and I can think of 200K better things to do with the money. He’s never run on conventional dirt. Ever. All turf and one synthetic start, his win in the Spiral last out in which he was probably third best. His pedigree lends to added distance…..on the grass. There aren’t too many I’m completely tossing from everything this year but he is one of them.
8 – Lani 30/1 Yutaka Take (0-1) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: This year’s mystery horse from Dubai, by way of Japan who just so happens to be bred in Kentucky. He’s taken the long way to get back to the Bluegrass State if you ask me. Look, people are impressed by the fact that he’s beaten fields of 15 and 16, that his races are all over a distance of ground and that he’s by Tapit. That’s all well and good but keep in mind he beat a filly who had a miserable trip in his points race, the U.A.E. Derby, has had strange training regimen since arriving here, to say the least and is rumored to be a head case. Sounds like a recipe for disaster if you ask me. Besides, I saw this movie last year when the lead role went to Mubtaahij. That ending stunk. This one doesn’t figure to be much better. I’m tossing him.
9 – Destin 15/1 Javier Castellano (0-9) Todd Pletcher (1-43)
Notes: He’s going to try and buck a ton of history as this will be his first start in eight weeks and he’s never raced past 1 1/16 miles. He looked good winning the Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby but they both came at Tampa Bay Downs, one of the quirkiest racing surfaces in the land. Horses often love it or hate it. He obviously fell into the first column. I don’t think I’m saying anything groundbreaking when I say something has to be up because you don’t attack this race the way he is doing so unless you have to. Combine that with Pletcher’s record in this and the fact that his presence, as well as Castellano’s will lead to this horse taking some money and he’s an easy toss for me.
10 – Whitmore 20/1 Victor Espinoza (3-7) Ron Moquett (0-1)
Notes: One of a few that has given me fits this year. I feel like he always runs a good race yet always manages to find a way to lose. It bugs me that he’s won both of his sprints and he’s winless in his four starts around two turns and that he always seems to be losing ground at the end of his distance races. But he’s had excuses in almost all of them, namely last out when he clipped heels and almost went down a few strides out of the gate when he was third in the Arkansas Derby. With hopes of getting him in the game a bit earlier on, his connections have reached out to 2002, 2014 and 2015 Derby winner Espinoza. He won all three of those on or close to the lead and while I’m not saying he’ll be forwardly placed I feel like he’ll be closer early on than he has been in a long while. And that makes him a player. On all of my exotic tickets and most of my multi-race wagers.
11 – Exaggerator 8/1 Kent Desormeaux (3-19) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: I think part of the reason this Derby puzzle seems especially tough this year is because three of the final, major preps were run over wet tracks, including the Santa Anita Derby where this guy blew their doors off with a scintillating move approaching the far turn. It’s doubly tough to figure out how much the track played a part with him because many felt he was sitting on that kind of race BUT he had great wet track form in the past. I feel like it was a combination of both, but I don’t like the fact that his connections have made it clear they plan to use the same tactics – take back and make one big run – in here. Running past seven at Santa Anita is lot different than 19 in Kentucky in this race, especially this year, as there figures to be a bigger crowd at the tail end of the bunch than anywhere else. His rider has won this in 1998, 2000 and 2008 and would love to get number four for his brother. On some of my exotic tickets and I will save with him in my multi-race wagers.
12 - Tom’s Ready 30/1 Brian Hernandez, Jr. (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-4)
Notes: He hails from a barn that has been uncanny and getting longshots to run at big prices on racings’ biggest stages. After that, I don’t have a lot of good things to say, if any. He’s won just once in nine starts (it did come at Churchill) and it looks to me like he doesn’t want to go a step past a mile, a theory supported by his breeding and previous races. He was second in the Louisiana Derby last out because someone had to be and his buddy Mo Tom got stopped cold along the rail. One of just a handful that is a complete toss for me.
13 – Nyquist 3/1 Mario Gutierrez (1-1) Doug O’Neill (1-4)
Notes: The juvenile Eclipse champ has done nothing wrong, as he’s undefeated in his seven race career. His connections all teamed up to win this in 2012 with I’ll Have Another. California based runners have won the last two runnings and three of the last four. He’s by one of the hottest sires in the land, Uncle Mo. What could possibly stop him? Well, there is always the extra furlong, which some, including me, are dubious of when it comes to his pedigree. Then there is the issue of his schedule. I’m not a big fan of just two preps, especially when one of them is seven furlongs. But, if you’re trying to win a nine furlong race, like they did last out in the Florida Derby when he was alive for a $1 million bonus. It sounds ridiculous, but I think their Derby, at the very least their Derby payday, was last time. He’s going to be the clear cut favorite, say 3-1 or 7-2 and in a year that is completely wide open there is nothing better than getting the chalk out of the number. I’m trying to beat him on top but understand if you don’t.
14 – Mohaymen 10/1 Junior Alvarado (Debut) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-6)
Notes: I have never seen a bandwagon empty like his did in the minutes after he lost the epic, East versus West, battle of the undefeateds in the Florida Derby to Nyquist. He went from number one to number done. His rider has said he didn’t feel like the “real Mohaymen” as soon as he climbed aboard and his trainer has gone on the record saying he’s had two bad minutes, those two, in his entire career. That was a quirky track at Gulfstream that day. It rained, dried out, rained again. Quirky to say the least. Maybe he didn’t like it. Maybe it was something else. Maybe it was both. All I know is that the last time a McLaughlin runner lost a prep many thought he’d win it was last year with Frosted, who fell apart in the stretch of the Fountain of Youth. When he returned six weeks later, he rolled in the Wood Memorial. There aren’t many better at picking them apart, stripping them down and building them back up than Kiaran. With all of that said, he’s my pick to win Kentucky Derby 142!!!
15 – Outwork 15/1 John Velazquez (1-17) Todd Pletcher (1-43)
Notes: He’s a length away from being undefeated in his four starts and is already a G1 winner. He’s got speed, which only one or two others in here can brag about and sports connections that have literally won hundreds of races as a team. His pedigree, especially that Empire Maker dam, lead me to believe the distance shouldn’t be an issue and a front end trip, as long as he doesn’t get cooked in a duel with Danzing Candy, should make his job that much easier. If you’re looking for a knock, he beat a maiden in the slowest Wood Memorial ever run in its’ 92 year history last out and Pletcher, who won this in 2010 with Super Saver, has an abysmal record in the event. Still, he’s in the capable hands of Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who won the 2011 Derby aboard Animal Kingdom when this horse’s sire, Uncle Mo, was scratched days before the race, and he should get a dream trip. On all of my exotic tickets and some of my multi-race wagers.
16 – Shagaf 20/1 Joel Rosario (1-6) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: He won his first two starts around one turn impressively then grinded out a win in the Gotham over the maiden Laoban in his two turn debut when it appeared as if he didn’t like running inside horses. He saved ground again in the Wood Memorial but didn’t kick in through the stretch. Maybe it was the trip or the mud or his immaturity. This horse has talent and maybe that proverbial lightbulb just needs to go off. It’s tough to bank on that in here. I’ve thought for a while that he was a Belmont Stakes kind of horse – break, lay three lengths off the lead and make a sustained run – and maybe the best way to get him there is by running in here. New jock Rosario won this in 2013 so maybe he can wake him up. I don’t think he’ll be in the exacta but could be persuaded into using him on the bottom end of other exotics.
17 - Mor Spirit 12/1 Gary Stevens (3-21) Bob Baffert (4-26)
Notes: No horse has more accomplished human connections as Stevens won this in 1988, 1995 and in 1997 with Baffert trainee Silver Charm while Baffert won three others in 1998, 2002 and last year with American Pharoah. He’s already a G1 winner having taken the Los Alamitos Futurity, owns a won and a couple of seconds and runs like the distance shouldn’t be a problem. All the makings of a Derby winner, right? Wrong. I have NEVER liked this horse. I hate the way he travels and think he won the phoniest G1 race ever and has beaten up on weaker foes. When he runs into horses that have a smidge of talent, like Danzing Candy and Exaggerator, he proves to be no match. He’ll take a ton of money but not a dollar of it will be mine.
18 – Majesto 30/1 Emisael Jaramillo (Debut) Gustavo Delgado (Debut)
Notes: Tough to like this guy with just one win from six starts to his name. And you could have clocked him with an egg timer from the quarter pole home when he broke his maiden in start five. He parlayed a perfect trip into a second place finish in the Florida Derby last out. I wouldn’t be sold on him winning an entry level allowance contest at this point so I’m certainly not using him in here.
19 - Brody’s Cause 12/1 Luis Saez (0-3) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: I believe there are two horses for courses in here. Destin is one. He is the other. He LOVES Keeneland, having won both of his G1s, including the Blue Grass last out, there and finished third in the B.C Juvenile. He’s gotten great set ups in all three of those races as well. I don’t envision that happening here. Post shouldn’t hurt as he’ll be part of the cavalry in the latter part of the race but I don’t think he’s good enough. While I rate My Man Sam a chance, he’s still eligible for an entry level allowance while Cherry Winer and Laoban are the two AEs in here because they didn’t have enough points to get in. That’s who he beat last time out. I know he broke his maiden over this course but that’s not enough to sway me. He can get a minor award, I guess, but I’m going to let him beat me.
20 - Danzing Candy 15/1 Mike Smith (1-21) Clifford Sise, Jr. (Debut)
Notes: I had a really tough time deciding what to do with this guy. Then my buddy Rob Toscano pointed out that the longer the run-ups to the first turn of his two turn races have been the faster he’s gone in the early going. If that pattern holds form, we’re in for a serious opening half mile or so as he’ll have around 3/8ths of a mile before he hits the first bend. Combine that with his trainer saying the things that made him come to Kentucky after an abysmal effort out in the Santa Anita Derby are “owners,” and his post draw and it made my decision much, much easier. I want nothing to do with him.
21 - Laoban (AE) Cornelio Velasquez (0-4) Eric Guillot. (Debut)
Notes: If he gets in he’ll break from an outside post, likely next to the controlling speed. As a fellow front runner, that doesn’t bode well. Oh, by the way, like Trojan Nation, he’s a maiden. No thanks.
22 – Cherry Wine (AE) Robby Albarado (0-14) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: He needs two to scratch to get in and I know a lot of people have been waiting for him to really strut his stuff. I don’t know where they’ve seen this “stuff” before because I’ve never been a fan but that’s what makes this world go around. I’ll pass
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