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Afternoon folks -
I have a handful of races at Belmont - Monmouth and Woodbine. If interested please click on the image below to view the Index for today.
Also I have a wager in today's CFL Game.
CFL: 0-0,
Toronto +7.5
The line move has gotten crazy even with Ricky Ray not playing at QB. Eskimo's QB (Mike Reilly) may not be 100% either,
and they lost their top RB in preseason. The fill in for Toronto (Harris) has known for a long time now that he would
be starting this game. He still has Chad Owens and company to help manage the game.
HORSES.JPG
First – a bit of clarification . . .
As you'll see I have odds parameters as to when I wager, I have developed these based on recording the Index results over thousands of races that I've handicapped.
I'm very aware that some of you are recreational players who are only able to wager a day or two per week – while others of you are “full time” (or nearly full time)
players.
I'm trying to get races that will fit all types of folks that are interested in betting the ponies...
- For part-time and recreational players, it is fairly difficult to sit on your hands and pass races where the Index points out $7.00 to $9.00 winners with regularity.
It seems a shame to not get those on the few days you have available to wager.
- For serious, and full-time players, patience should already be an ingrained habit, and waiting for the higher priced contenders not a problem.
- And then there are the “early-bird” bettors who, of course, since they are wagering “in-the-dark” have to deal with horses that go off at far lower odds than would
have been wagered if live betting, and also the unforeseen late scratches that eliminate one or both the betting interests.
“Early-Bird” Betting Guidelines . . .
*Note – if you possibly can – make (or check and adjust) your wagers after overnight scratches are in if at all possible (I try to update between 11:30 a.m. and
12:30 p.m. after these are in).
Races to pass:
I suggest you pass a race (try to get access to this information if at all possible) if:
1. race was originally scheduled for the turf, and is taken off.
How to bet:
I suggest you wager on the top two ranked (A & B) horses to win in each race.
Basic Betting Guidelines:
Races to pass:
I suggest you pass race if:
1. Race was originally scheduled for the turf, and is taken off.
2. Dirt track conditions listed as other than fast or good.
3. Both A and B ranks are going off at 2/1 or less
4. Both A and C ranks going off at less than 2/1
5. Either A or B rank is going off at 1/2 or less
6. A, B, & C ranks all going off at less than 3/1
The idea of guidelines 3 through 6 above is that I'm looking for value in the race. If horses in top three ranks look solid and the race looks formful, I
don’t often want to be chasing low-percentage runners in other ranks. Just use this concept, and the actual odds ticks listed above won’t need to be fretted over.
7. any time both the A and B horses are scratched out late.
Basic win-betting guidelines:
How to bet:
- I suggest wagering on two horses to win in each race – the first two to qualify from rank A to C at the suggested odds:
* Bet the A & B ranks at 5/2 to 14/1
* Bet the C rank at 4/1 to 14/1
* Use the D rank at 7/1 to 25/1 - only if there is a late scratch of one of the top three ranks, A, B, or C, or one of those is going off at higher or lower than odds
parameters listed. In those cases, you will ‘move’ each rank ‘over’ to fill the vacated spot/s.
* If only one qualifier from ranks A, B, C, D – bet it as a singleton.
* possible exception: If there are 3 qualifiers – all going off at odds 5/1 and higher – you might want to dutch the three (or put a 1/4 base bet amount wager on the
highest of the three as a “saver”). This helps you avoid the frustration of missing some big payers. With these odds, you’ll still double your money minimum should
any of the three win.
Optimized Odds betting guidelines:
The suggested way to play the Optimized Odds is this:
Bet the higher ROI odds regardless of rank.
Rather than sticking to the pre-set odds parameters given in the Basic betting guidelines – consult the tables each race and bet the most optimized odds, by rank,
ranks A through D. When ROI is similar (within 10%) – then prefer an A, B, or C rank as long as it is at 4/1 or higher).
Exacta-betting guidelines:
- Use the win-bet qualifier/s as your “on top” horse/s. Use the next 4 lowest tote odds horses as your “underneath” horses.
So – you will part-wheel each of the two win qualifiers to 4 others (including to each other) for a total of 8 exacta combinations
occasionally 9 (if one of the horses is not in the low 5 odds).
also: These odds parameters are not “written in stone” – they can be allowed to float up or down a notch or two – particularly if it means getting another horse
to make a two-horse wager.
* A, B, and C are always the first and primary choices unless their odds fall outside of the given parameters.
Example: “A” is at 5/1, “B” is at 7/5, “C” is at 9/1, – the wager is on “A,” and “C.”
Example 1:
#1 is 5/1, A rank
#2 is 9/2, C rank
#3 is 11/1,
#4 is 9/1,
#5 is 8/5 B rank
#6 is 7/2
#7 is 17/1
#8 is 20/1
Let’s say your A and C ranks are #1 and #2 above (B rank being #5 above, and too low to consider)
- your exacta combinations would be; #1(A rank) to the; #2 (C rank) #4, #5, #6 and also; #2 (C rank) to the; #1, #4, #5, #6
Trifecta-betting guidelines:
- Same as the exacta betting, only repeat the “underneath” horses from the exacta in the third slot as well for a 24-combination ticket.
Example: (from exacta example 1 above) – ticket would be;
1, 2 to the 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 to the 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
If you want a slightly larger ticket with a greater chance of hitting the higher payoffs – then you could add in the next odds
(5th lowest – would have been #3 in the example above) in the 3rd slot;
1, 2 to the 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 for a 32 combination ticket . . . or -
1, 2 to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 for a 40 combination ticket.
Comments:
* I’ve tried to make the Basic Guidelines general – i.e. to be a best overall fit for the various kinds of players who want to play the game.
Again – for those of you who are serious, and play regularly, you should wager the optimized (higher ROI) guidelines.
* Don’t get stuck on thinking too much of horses A, B, and C – as being “in order” – as ranked by preference. They are, but the odds offered should be your final
decision maker.
* Stay within your limits. I don’t suggest that everyone make all the wagers (win, exacta, trifecta).
There are usually $1.00 exactas available as well as $1.00, or even .50 cent trifecta wagers available.
If your bankroll is light, don’t hesitate to use those (or skip the trifecta altogether).
* Odds changes are part of the game. Try to wait until the last possible moment to make your betting decisions and place your wager/s.
The odds will still change after you have placed your wagers – even at times changing substantially after the horses are running.
This is unavoidable, but it will go in your favor as often as it goes against you, so don’t fret it – just be as precise and disciplined as you can be.
- When changing odds near post-time are causing some confusion/hesitancy in your final decision – in general, choose on the side of the higher odds.
- When changing odds near post-time are causing hesitancy/confusion as to whether the odds will warrant wagering in the race, in general, choose on the side of
making a wager – and with the above “higher odds” guideline in mind.
One thing that I mentioned several times (for “Basic” Index betting) – consider adjacent ranks as little different in preference
while a horse two ranks away should not be preferred if qualifiers come before it (in light of the optimized odds parameters) . . .
- Example: Rank A 9/2 / Rank B 7-1 / Rank C 6-1 / Rank D 16-1 / Rank E 11/1 . . .
I wouldn’t prefer the C rank over the A rank because of being two ranks away. Bet would be A and B. On-the-other-hand:
- Example: Rank A 9/2 / Rank B 4-1 / Rank C 6-1 / Rank D 16-1 / Rank E 11/1 – Here I would prefer the C rank over the B rank because ranks being
adjacent and getting the better odds. Bet A and C.
- Example: Rank A 9-5 / Rank B 5-2 / Rank C 29-1 / Rank D 6-1 / Rank E 11/1 – Here I would prefer ranks C and D
I think worth mentioning here is I tend to shy away from horses that are three times overlay from their morning lines...ie M/L is 3/1 and horse is going off
at 9/1 or higher. While a horse will hit like this from time-to-time my data tells me it's not enough to go chasing after them. So if one of the ranks has
that situation I think its better drop it to an "E" Rank type of horse.
I have a handful of races at Belmont - Monmouth and Woodbine. If interested please click on the image below to view the Index for today.
Also I have a wager in today's CFL Game.
CFL: 0-0,
Toronto +7.5
The line move has gotten crazy even with Ricky Ray not playing at QB. Eskimo's QB (Mike Reilly) may not be 100% either,
and they lost their top RB in preseason. The fill in for Toronto (Harris) has known for a long time now that he would
be starting this game. He still has Chad Owens and company to help manage the game.
HORSES.JPG
First – a bit of clarification . . .
As you'll see I have odds parameters as to when I wager, I have developed these based on recording the Index results over thousands of races that I've handicapped.
I'm very aware that some of you are recreational players who are only able to wager a day or two per week – while others of you are “full time” (or nearly full time)
players.
I'm trying to get races that will fit all types of folks that are interested in betting the ponies...
- For part-time and recreational players, it is fairly difficult to sit on your hands and pass races where the Index points out $7.00 to $9.00 winners with regularity.
It seems a shame to not get those on the few days you have available to wager.
- For serious, and full-time players, patience should already be an ingrained habit, and waiting for the higher priced contenders not a problem.
- And then there are the “early-bird” bettors who, of course, since they are wagering “in-the-dark” have to deal with horses that go off at far lower odds than would
have been wagered if live betting, and also the unforeseen late scratches that eliminate one or both the betting interests.
“Early-Bird” Betting Guidelines . . .
*Note – if you possibly can – make (or check and adjust) your wagers after overnight scratches are in if at all possible (I try to update between 11:30 a.m. and
12:30 p.m. after these are in).
Races to pass:
I suggest you pass a race (try to get access to this information if at all possible) if:
1. race was originally scheduled for the turf, and is taken off.
How to bet:
I suggest you wager on the top two ranked (A & B) horses to win in each race.
Basic Betting Guidelines:
Races to pass:
I suggest you pass race if:
1. Race was originally scheduled for the turf, and is taken off.
2. Dirt track conditions listed as other than fast or good.
3. Both A and B ranks are going off at 2/1 or less
4. Both A and C ranks going off at less than 2/1
5. Either A or B rank is going off at 1/2 or less
6. A, B, & C ranks all going off at less than 3/1
The idea of guidelines 3 through 6 above is that I'm looking for value in the race. If horses in top three ranks look solid and the race looks formful, I
don’t often want to be chasing low-percentage runners in other ranks. Just use this concept, and the actual odds ticks listed above won’t need to be fretted over.
7. any time both the A and B horses are scratched out late.
Basic win-betting guidelines:
How to bet:
- I suggest wagering on two horses to win in each race – the first two to qualify from rank A to C at the suggested odds:
* Bet the A & B ranks at 5/2 to 14/1
* Bet the C rank at 4/1 to 14/1
* Use the D rank at 7/1 to 25/1 - only if there is a late scratch of one of the top three ranks, A, B, or C, or one of those is going off at higher or lower than odds
parameters listed. In those cases, you will ‘move’ each rank ‘over’ to fill the vacated spot/s.
* If only one qualifier from ranks A, B, C, D – bet it as a singleton.
* possible exception: If there are 3 qualifiers – all going off at odds 5/1 and higher – you might want to dutch the three (or put a 1/4 base bet amount wager on the
highest of the three as a “saver”). This helps you avoid the frustration of missing some big payers. With these odds, you’ll still double your money minimum should
any of the three win.
Optimized Odds betting guidelines:
The suggested way to play the Optimized Odds is this:
Bet the higher ROI odds regardless of rank.
Rather than sticking to the pre-set odds parameters given in the Basic betting guidelines – consult the tables each race and bet the most optimized odds, by rank,
ranks A through D. When ROI is similar (within 10%) – then prefer an A, B, or C rank as long as it is at 4/1 or higher).
Exacta-betting guidelines:
- Use the win-bet qualifier/s as your “on top” horse/s. Use the next 4 lowest tote odds horses as your “underneath” horses.
So – you will part-wheel each of the two win qualifiers to 4 others (including to each other) for a total of 8 exacta combinations
occasionally 9 (if one of the horses is not in the low 5 odds).
also: These odds parameters are not “written in stone” – they can be allowed to float up or down a notch or two – particularly if it means getting another horse
to make a two-horse wager.
* A, B, and C are always the first and primary choices unless their odds fall outside of the given parameters.
Example: “A” is at 5/1, “B” is at 7/5, “C” is at 9/1, – the wager is on “A,” and “C.”
Example 1:
#1 is 5/1, A rank
#2 is 9/2, C rank
#3 is 11/1,
#4 is 9/1,
#5 is 8/5 B rank
#6 is 7/2
#7 is 17/1
#8 is 20/1
Let’s say your A and C ranks are #1 and #2 above (B rank being #5 above, and too low to consider)
- your exacta combinations would be; #1(A rank) to the; #2 (C rank) #4, #5, #6 and also; #2 (C rank) to the; #1, #4, #5, #6
Trifecta-betting guidelines:
- Same as the exacta betting, only repeat the “underneath” horses from the exacta in the third slot as well for a 24-combination ticket.
Example: (from exacta example 1 above) – ticket would be;
1, 2 to the 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 to the 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
If you want a slightly larger ticket with a greater chance of hitting the higher payoffs – then you could add in the next odds
(5th lowest – would have been #3 in the example above) in the 3rd slot;
1, 2 to the 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 for a 32 combination ticket . . . or -
1, 2 to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 for a 40 combination ticket.
Comments:
* I’ve tried to make the Basic Guidelines general – i.e. to be a best overall fit for the various kinds of players who want to play the game.
Again – for those of you who are serious, and play regularly, you should wager the optimized (higher ROI) guidelines.
* Don’t get stuck on thinking too much of horses A, B, and C – as being “in order” – as ranked by preference. They are, but the odds offered should be your final
decision maker.
* Stay within your limits. I don’t suggest that everyone make all the wagers (win, exacta, trifecta).
There are usually $1.00 exactas available as well as $1.00, or even .50 cent trifecta wagers available.
If your bankroll is light, don’t hesitate to use those (or skip the trifecta altogether).
* Odds changes are part of the game. Try to wait until the last possible moment to make your betting decisions and place your wager/s.
The odds will still change after you have placed your wagers – even at times changing substantially after the horses are running.
This is unavoidable, but it will go in your favor as often as it goes against you, so don’t fret it – just be as precise and disciplined as you can be.
- When changing odds near post-time are causing some confusion/hesitancy in your final decision – in general, choose on the side of the higher odds.
- When changing odds near post-time are causing hesitancy/confusion as to whether the odds will warrant wagering in the race, in general, choose on the side of
making a wager – and with the above “higher odds” guideline in mind.
One thing that I mentioned several times (for “Basic” Index betting) – consider adjacent ranks as little different in preference
while a horse two ranks away should not be preferred if qualifiers come before it (in light of the optimized odds parameters) . . .
- Example: Rank A 9/2 / Rank B 7-1 / Rank C 6-1 / Rank D 16-1 / Rank E 11/1 . . .
I wouldn’t prefer the C rank over the A rank because of being two ranks away. Bet would be A and B. On-the-other-hand:
- Example: Rank A 9/2 / Rank B 4-1 / Rank C 6-1 / Rank D 16-1 / Rank E 11/1 – Here I would prefer the C rank over the B rank because ranks being
adjacent and getting the better odds. Bet A and C.
- Example: Rank A 9-5 / Rank B 5-2 / Rank C 29-1 / Rank D 6-1 / Rank E 11/1 – Here I would prefer ranks C and D
I think worth mentioning here is I tend to shy away from horses that are three times overlay from their morning lines...ie M/L is 3/1 and horse is going off
at 9/1 or higher. While a horse will hit like this from time-to-time my data tells me it's not enough to go chasing after them. So if one of the ranks has
that situation I think its better drop it to an "E" Rank type of horse.
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