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Arkansas Derby Preview
April 10, 2015
Anthony's Eleven (4/10/15)
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 141 on May 2nd at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. On both May 1st and May 2nd, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year.
Click here!
ANTHONY'S ELEVEN (4/10/15)
Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points
1 Mubtaahij Christopher Soumillon Mike de Kock Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 100
2 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 113
3 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett Arkansas Derby (4/11 at OP) 22
4 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 170
5 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 171
6 Carpe Diem John Velazquez Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 164
7 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 58
8 Upstart Jose Ortz Rick Violette, Jr. Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 76
9 El Kabeir Undecided John Terranova, III Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 95
10 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 44
11 Frammento Undecided Nick Zito Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 20
The G1 Arkansas Derby going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, the last button on Murphy’s coat when it comes to the 100 point Kentucky Derby prep races, highlights the action this Saturday down at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. American Pharoah has been installed as the prohibitive 1-2 morning line favorite in the field of 8 and could stamp himself the favorite for the Run for the Roses with a victory.
Trained by Bob Baffert, American Pharoah won two of his three starts as a juvenile, including the G1 Del Mar Futurity and G1 Front Runner, which was good enough to name him the Eclipse Award winner as champion Two-Year-Old.
This year, American Pharoah has raced just once, taking the G2 Rebel over a sloppy Oaklawn surface in gate-to-wire fashion by 6 ¼ lengths under regular rider Victor Espinoza, his first start in over five months.
American Pharoah, who’ll break from post 6, has actually led every step of the way in all three of his scores but there is speculation that he will be taken off the pace in an attempt to rate, thus making him a more powerful threat in Louisville. That speculation was further fueled when his owner, Zayat Stables, entered the speedy Mr. Z in here.
From the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, Mr. Z has danced nearly every dance since breaking his maiden in his late June debut at Churchill Downs. He’s hit the board in seven of those ten starts but hasn’t had his picture taken since. Last out, he stalked the early pace in the G2 Louisiana Derby but faltered terribly through the stretch and was beaten over 20 lengths. He’ll put the blinkers back on for this and will have Ramon Vazquez in the saddle from post 2.
Perhaps American Pharoah’s biggest challenge will come from the G3 Southwest winner, Far Right. Trained by Ron Moquett, Far Right started his career with five races around one turn, met with mixed results, before finishing a troubled trip/terrible ride third in the G3 Delta Jackpot last November.
Moquett switched riders to Mike Smith for his first start of the season, the Smarty Jones, and Smith rewarded the conditioner with a flawless ride that resulted in a 1 ¾ length tally. Smith gave Far Right an even better ride in the Southwest, weaving through traffic and diving to the inside to get up by ¾ of a length in the final stages. Far Right will break from post 7.
Madefromlucky will try the champ again after a runner-up finish in the Rebel for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez. Madefromlucky when his two prior starts at Gulfstream and didn’t appear, to me anyway, to like the wet track last out. He’ll get a dry track here and will break from post 4.
Trainer Ken McPeek will add blinkers to his charge, The Truth Or Else as he makes his third start off of a three month layoff from the rail with Calvin Borel. The Truth Or Else made a prolonged bid to the lead before getting rundown late in the Southwest then flattened out when Borel asked him for Run in the rebel where he finished fourth.
Like Madefromlucky, I’m not too certain Bold Conquest liked the sloppy tracks he’s encountered in his last pair for Steve Asmussen. After a third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity last October at Keeneland, Bold Conquest returned with a fourth place finish in the Southwest then grabbed the show dough after encountering some trouble on the first turn in the Rebel. Ricardo Santana, Jr. rides from post 5.
Bridget’s Big Luvy added blinkers and led the Private Terms at Laurel every step of the way at this distance last out when trainer Jeremiah Englehart added blinkers. Both of his career wins have come on wet tracks while he is winless in a pair of fast track tries. Angel Cruz rides from post 3.
George Papaprodromou will saddle longshot maiden Win the Space, a California shipper with Kent Desormeaux in the saddle. He’ll shed blinkers while making his first start around two turns and against stakes company from post 8.
Finally, a quick note about the G3 Coolmore Lexington, going 1 1/16 miles on the main track, at Keeneland. Worth just 10 Derby points to the winner, it’s highly unlikely this race will have any impact on the Kentucky Derby, but recent maiden winner Donworth is one to keep an eye on. He overcame a tough trip to win going seven furlongs, one of the toughest things to do, in his unveiling and could be a Preakness or Belmont player for trainer Graham Motion. He faces just six others with Joel Rosario aboard.
Prep Play of the Day
Got split in the Santa Anita Derby but hit Frosted in the Wood Memorial to get even Steven last Saturday. In the Arkansas Derby, let’s try to beat American Pharoah. Make a $1 trifecta part-wheel using Far Right over The Truth Or Else, Madefromlucky, Bold Conquest and American Pharoah over all of the horses. Total cost is $24. Good luck!!!!
Bankroll: $0
April 10, 2015
Anthony's Eleven (4/10/15)
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 141 on May 2nd at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. On both May 1st and May 2nd, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year.
Click here!
ANTHONY'S ELEVEN (4/10/15)
Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points
1 Mubtaahij Christopher Soumillon Mike de Kock Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 100
2 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 113
3 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett Arkansas Derby (4/11 at OP) 22
4 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 170
5 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 171
6 Carpe Diem John Velazquez Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 164
7 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 58
8 Upstart Jose Ortz Rick Violette, Jr. Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 76
9 El Kabeir Undecided John Terranova, III Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 95
10 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 44
11 Frammento Undecided Nick Zito Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 20
The G1 Arkansas Derby going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, the last button on Murphy’s coat when it comes to the 100 point Kentucky Derby prep races, highlights the action this Saturday down at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. American Pharoah has been installed as the prohibitive 1-2 morning line favorite in the field of 8 and could stamp himself the favorite for the Run for the Roses with a victory.
Trained by Bob Baffert, American Pharoah won two of his three starts as a juvenile, including the G1 Del Mar Futurity and G1 Front Runner, which was good enough to name him the Eclipse Award winner as champion Two-Year-Old.
This year, American Pharoah has raced just once, taking the G2 Rebel over a sloppy Oaklawn surface in gate-to-wire fashion by 6 ¼ lengths under regular rider Victor Espinoza, his first start in over five months.
American Pharoah, who’ll break from post 6, has actually led every step of the way in all three of his scores but there is speculation that he will be taken off the pace in an attempt to rate, thus making him a more powerful threat in Louisville. That speculation was further fueled when his owner, Zayat Stables, entered the speedy Mr. Z in here.
From the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, Mr. Z has danced nearly every dance since breaking his maiden in his late June debut at Churchill Downs. He’s hit the board in seven of those ten starts but hasn’t had his picture taken since. Last out, he stalked the early pace in the G2 Louisiana Derby but faltered terribly through the stretch and was beaten over 20 lengths. He’ll put the blinkers back on for this and will have Ramon Vazquez in the saddle from post 2.
Perhaps American Pharoah’s biggest challenge will come from the G3 Southwest winner, Far Right. Trained by Ron Moquett, Far Right started his career with five races around one turn, met with mixed results, before finishing a troubled trip/terrible ride third in the G3 Delta Jackpot last November.
Moquett switched riders to Mike Smith for his first start of the season, the Smarty Jones, and Smith rewarded the conditioner with a flawless ride that resulted in a 1 ¾ length tally. Smith gave Far Right an even better ride in the Southwest, weaving through traffic and diving to the inside to get up by ¾ of a length in the final stages. Far Right will break from post 7.
Madefromlucky will try the champ again after a runner-up finish in the Rebel for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez. Madefromlucky when his two prior starts at Gulfstream and didn’t appear, to me anyway, to like the wet track last out. He’ll get a dry track here and will break from post 4.
Trainer Ken McPeek will add blinkers to his charge, The Truth Or Else as he makes his third start off of a three month layoff from the rail with Calvin Borel. The Truth Or Else made a prolonged bid to the lead before getting rundown late in the Southwest then flattened out when Borel asked him for Run in the rebel where he finished fourth.
Like Madefromlucky, I’m not too certain Bold Conquest liked the sloppy tracks he’s encountered in his last pair for Steve Asmussen. After a third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity last October at Keeneland, Bold Conquest returned with a fourth place finish in the Southwest then grabbed the show dough after encountering some trouble on the first turn in the Rebel. Ricardo Santana, Jr. rides from post 5.
Bridget’s Big Luvy added blinkers and led the Private Terms at Laurel every step of the way at this distance last out when trainer Jeremiah Englehart added blinkers. Both of his career wins have come on wet tracks while he is winless in a pair of fast track tries. Angel Cruz rides from post 3.
George Papaprodromou will saddle longshot maiden Win the Space, a California shipper with Kent Desormeaux in the saddle. He’ll shed blinkers while making his first start around two turns and against stakes company from post 8.
Finally, a quick note about the G3 Coolmore Lexington, going 1 1/16 miles on the main track, at Keeneland. Worth just 10 Derby points to the winner, it’s highly unlikely this race will have any impact on the Kentucky Derby, but recent maiden winner Donworth is one to keep an eye on. He overcame a tough trip to win going seven furlongs, one of the toughest things to do, in his unveiling and could be a Preakness or Belmont player for trainer Graham Motion. He faces just six others with Joel Rosario aboard.
Prep Play of the Day
Got split in the Santa Anita Derby but hit Frosted in the Wood Memorial to get even Steven last Saturday. In the Arkansas Derby, let’s try to beat American Pharoah. Make a $1 trifecta part-wheel using Far Right over The Truth Or Else, Madefromlucky, Bold Conquest and American Pharoah over all of the horses. Total cost is $24. Good luck!!!!
Bankroll: $0
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