Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 03-27-2015, 02:29 AM

At the Gate - Friday

March 26, 2015

In addition to the big Derby preps coming up on Saturday, there is this little race called the Dubai World Cup (G1), the world’s richest race with a $10 million purse, which will be the marquee event at Meydan Racecourse, with eight other races and $30 million in purses up for grabs in total.

The second race on the card is the first betting race and goes off at 8:40 ET with the Dubai World Cup slated to go off at 1:00 ET. The race will be televised as part of the Jockey Club Tour on Fox, the one hour telecast getting underway at 12:30 ET.

The headliner is 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome, who is the 8-5 morning line favorite. The colt ran second to Shared Belief in his last outing in the San Antonio (G2) at Santa Anita on Feb. 7.

Also representing the U.S. is the Bill Mott trained Lea, who is the 5-2 second choice on the morning line. The six-year-old ran second in the Donn Handicap (G1) in his last outing.

Defending champion African Story (6-1) is back and Japan sends a strong duo of Hokko Tarumae (8-1) and Epiphaneia (12-1).

There was a buzz on social media yesterday regarding the takeout rates for the races from Meydan. The takeout on win, place and show bets is 20% and exotic bets are at a 27% clip.

That is incredibly high, so if you plan on wagering on the Dubai card, check with your online racebook and make sure you are being offered rebates to offset at least some of this ridiculous takeout rate.

For Saturday, I will have full card reports for Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct, and I will get to some of the action from Fair Grounds and Dubai and include those races in my Best Plays Report.

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Friday click here.

Here is today’s opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $12,500N3L (1:20 ET)
1 Mr. Lit 5-2
5 Tapin Mojo 6-5
3 Chrisandlorisposse 5-1
6 Can't Catch Me Now 12-1

Analysis: Mr. Lit tracked the early pace from the outside and weakened to finish fifth last out at this level. The gelding beat $12,500 non-winners of two in his previous outing over a muddy inner track. The gelding draws the rail here and should be sitting just off the pace here with a ground saving trip. The Nevin barn has been live at the meet, hitting at a 28% clip.

Tapin Mojo has handled off tracks nicely in his last two starts, breaking his maiden two back by 15 1/4 lengths and last out beating non-winners of two by a nose. The colt could regress off back-to-back career tops but this is not a real tough group as he steps up a notch here.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 1,5 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 OClm $62,500N2X (4:48 ET)
7 Integrity 5-1
2 Effinex 6-1
1 Coach Inge 4-1
6 Coltimus Prime 5-2

Analysis: Integrity stretches back out to a route here after a fourth place finish last out at Philly against non-conditioned allowance foes. He adds blinkers as he makes his first start here for the RRod barn that is back from his forced vacation and hits at a 30% clip with newcomers to the barn. He did beat Alw-3 optional claimers going a two-turn mile at Philly last year. This looks like a good spot and we should get a fair price.

Effinex returns off nearly a three month break here for the Jerkens barn. The colt was last seen checking in fourth in the state bred Alex Robb, making a mild late run to finish 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner. The colt as good enough to win the state bred Empire classic last October at Belmont Park going nine furlongs and he does have a pair of wins on the inner track.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 1,2,6,7
TRI: 2,7 / 1,2,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #6 Can’t Catch Me Now 12-1
R3: #5 Majestic Jessica 10-1
R6: #8 Cats Landing 8-1
R7: #2 Scattered Dreams 10-1
R9: #1 No More Strippers 12-1

Good luck today!

**StarDust Bum** · 03-27-2015, 02:32 AM

Florida & Louisiana Derby Tips

March 26, 2015

Anthony's Eleven (3/27/15)

Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 141 on May 2nd at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. On both May 1st and May 2nd, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year.

ANTHONY'S ELEVEN (3/27/15)

Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points

1 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett Arkansas Derby (4/11 at OP) 22

2 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 70

3 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss Louisiana Derby (3/28 at FG) 24

4 Frammento Gary Stevens Nick Zito Blue Grass (4/4 at KEE) 10

5 Upstart Jose Ortz Rick Violette, Jr. Florida Derby (3/28 at GP) 36

6 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 58

7 Dubai Sky Jose Lezcano Bill Mott Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 50

8 Prospect Park Kent Desormeaux Clifford Sise, Jr. Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 20

9 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker Louisiana Derby (3/28 at FG) 71

10 Bolo Mike Smith Carla Gaines Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 10

11 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin Wood Memorial (4/4 at Aqu)

The final round of Kentucky Derby preps gets underway this Saturday with 100 points up for grabs at Gulfstream, the Fair Grounds and halfway across the world at Meydan in Dubai. We’ll focus on a pair of domestic derbies while giving the one in the desert a brief shout out to wrap things up.

Also, don’t forget that this weekend also features the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager of the season. I won’t be getting involved but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t. Just remember, if you do, command value, especially at this late stage of the game.

The first stop on the trail this week is Florida, as a field of nine has taken shape for the G1 Florida Derby going 1 1/8 miles over the main track and it features a rematch of the one-two finishers from the G2 Fountain of Youth in February, Upstart and Itsaknockout.

Trained by Rick Violette, Jr., Upstart entered the gate that day as the 9-10 prohibitive favorite but sure didn’t run like one. In his usual position, just a few lengths off the pace, in the early going, jockey Jose Ortiz put Upstart under a ride approaching the far turn and initially made little headway. Once they straightened for home and one-time leader Frosted stopped inexplicably, Upstart battled his way to the top, crossed paths with Itsaknockout in deep stretch then edged away to a 2 ¾ length tally. He’ll break from outside post 9 with Ortiz.

Itsaknockout, one of two in here for Todd Pletcher, sat a similar trip, and like Upstart, didn’t look like a winner at any stage of the game but managed to take advantage of a poor stewards’ decision to disqualify the winner. It kept Itsaknockout’s perfect record intact as he’s won all three of his starts in some way, shape or form under Luis Saez, who’s back aboard from post 4.

Pletcher’s other charge, Materiality, will look to become the first sophomore to win the Derby without a race as a two-year-old since Apollo did it back in 1882. After breaking his maiden over a sloppy track going six furlongs in his January debut, Materiality returned from a seven week break to win the Islamorada, a minor stakes going this distance, by almost a half-dozen lengths. Regular rider John Velazquez rides from post 7.

Ami’s Flatter finished a well beaten second behind Carpe Diem in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby last out, his first start with both blinkers and Lasix. Winless in three starts since breaking his maiden over the Polytrack at Woodbine in his lone juvenile try, Ami’s Flatter did finish second in his only start over this course when he was second in the Mucho Macho Man at the start of the year. Trainer Josie Carroll makes a big jockey change to leading rider Javier Castellano. They’ll break from the rail.

Trainer Dale Romans sends out the longshot pair of Jack Tripp and Indianaughty from posts 2 and 3, respectively. Jack Tripp will run for the gelding for the first time while making his stakes debut having won just one of seven starts to date. Irad Ortiz Jr. replaces Corey Lanerie in the saddle. Lanerie will stick with Indianaughty, a winner two starts back on turf in his U.S. debut. Last out he shipped to Golden Gate where he was ninth of ten in the G3 El Camino Real Derby over a synthetic track. This will be his conventional dirt debut.

Nick Zito goes to the bench and runs Quimet in here as his Frammento, a late running third in the Fountain of Youth, awaits the G1 Blue Grass on 4/4 at Keeneland. Third in the Islamorada via DQ last out, Quimet’s lone victory in five starts came in a $50K maiden claimer back on New Year’s Day. Edgard Zayas rides from post 5.

My Point Exactly looks for his third straight for Bill Kaplan but will need to overcome an almost seven month layoff and switch back to dirt if he gets the hat trick. He broke his maiden over this course in August of last year before winning a minor turf stakes at Louisiana Downs in September when last seen. He’ll break from post 6 with Juan Leyva. Longshot Dekabrist hasn’t hit the board in any of his five starts this year for Gennadi Dorochenko and hasn’t hit the board in any. Jesus Rios rides from post 8.

Down in the bayou, International Star will look to sweep the three Fair Grounds preps for the Kentucky Derby with a victory in the G2 Louisiana Derby going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for trainer Mike Maker.

After an up and down juvenile season in which he won two of six starts but was winless on conventional dirt, International Star opened some eyes when he overcame a bit of a precarious trip in the G3 LeComte to win by 2 ½ lengths before saving ground and coming up a narrow opening along the rail last out to win the G2 Risen Star by a length.

Stabled at Gulfstream, he’ll be taking his third van ride of the season and will break from outside post 9 with Miguel Mena, his rider in his last two starts.

War Story is no stranger to International Star and he’s finished second to him in his last two starts after winning the first two starts of his career. War Story actually made the lead in the LeComte before coughing it up late off a wide trip then suffered another wide trip in his latest. I’m a believer that their respective trips actually made the difference last time out. He’ll break from post 6 under new rider Joe Talamo for trainer Tom Amoss.

The well-traveled Mr. Z will be making the eleventh start of his career over his eighth different racetrack for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Though he’s winless since his debut tally, he’s encountered nearly every top three-year-old and has suffered some heart-wrenching defeats, namely a nose defeat in the G3 Delta Jackpot, a head defeat to Dortmund in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity and last out when he set the pace from his outside post before giving way grudgingly to finish third by ¾ of a length in the G3 Southwest. He’ll shed blinkers and breaks from post 2 with his seventh different rider, Kent Desormeaux.

Keen Ice made up a good deal of ground to finish third in the Risen Star last out for Romans when Jimmy Graham climbed aboard for the first time. This will be his third start off of a layoff and he’ll be looking for just his second win in seven starts. He’ll break from post 7.

St. Joe Bay, another eligible for an entry level allowance contest, shipped in from California to set the pace and finish fourth in the Risen Star where he was beaten a little less than three lengths. Trainer Peter Miller makes a rider change to Robby Albarado and they’ll break from post 8.

Stanford ships in from Gulfstream for Pletcher and has won half of his four starts. He returned from a sixth month layoff to win an allowance contest two back before getting disqualified from second and placed last of six when he veered out while going down the backstretch in the Islamorada last out. Florent Geroux rides from the rail.

Defondo broke his maiden two back for trainer Dallas Stewart at third asking in a sprint before just missing when stretching out in an allowance/optional claimer last out. Brian Hernandez has the return call from post 3.

Fusaichi Flame went gate-to-wire against just three others in a sloppy, off-the-turf affair in his latest for trainer Scott Geiner. Francisco Torres rides from post 4. A Day In Paradise, second to War Story two back, won a minor stakes at Sam Houston last out at 3-5. Kerwin Clark rides for Larry Jones from post 5.

Finally, out in Dubai, a field of 10 is set for the G2 UAE Derby going about 1 3/16 miles on the newly installed conventional dirt surface at Meydan. The Mike de Kock trained Mubtaahij has won three of his four dirt starts, including the Al Bastakiya going this distance in his latest. Maftool was third to that one two back before adding blinkers to defeat his rival in the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas in his latest for Saeed bin Suroor and Godolphin. My Johnny Be Good is the lone U.S. representative and comes off a last place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby for Eoin Harty.

Prep Play of the Day

Dubai Sky got us our first winner of the year, paying $16.80. Let’s keep it rolling this week. In the Florida Derby, make a $20 exacta Upstart over Materiality and a $5 saver reversing those two. Then in the Louisiana Derby, bet $25 to win on War Story and make a $10 exacta box using War Story and International Star. Total cost is $70. Good luck!!!!

Bankroll: Minus $15

**StarDust Bum** · 03-27-2015, 02:33 AM

My Point Exactly ready for Florida Derby

March 26, 2015

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. (AP) - My Point Exactly has taken a most unconventional path to the Florida Derby.

That seems to fit his connections perfectly.

On one hand, the last time My Point Exactly lost a race was more than eight months ago. And that being said, the last time My Point Exactly so much as ran a race was nearly seven months ago. He's going to try to crash the party on Saturday, part of an expected nine in the field for the $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

''I can't say to all the wiseguys, go out and bet this horse,'' said Adam Lazarus, the managing partner of Pinnacle Racing Stable, part of the horse's ownership group. ''It'd be really unfair. ... There's not anything in this race that would say `Man, I'm going to go get my mortgage payment and let's dump it on My Point Exactly.' It's not going to work that way.''

So why bother?

Simple - finish first or second, and a trip to the Kentucky Derby is virtually guaranteed. Even a third-place showing on Saturday might be enough to qualify under the points system used to determine the 20-horse field that will head to Churchill Downs for the sport's signature race. And while a planned break followed by an unplanned illness kept My Point Exactly off the track since September, he did win his last two starts including a romp over the dirt at Gulfstream.

''It'd be the biggest race I've ever won in Florida and I've been doing this for 35 years,'' said Bill Kaplan, the horse's trainer. ''Don't forget, if you win this race, you know where your next stop is going to be.''

Upstart and Itsaknockout will be the favorites, and deservedly so, but if there's a wild card in the Florida Derby it might be this gelding who has bounced back and forth between dirt and turf in his four career outings to date.

Purchased for $65,000, My Point Exactly didn't take long to convince Kaplan that he was destined to be better over longer distances. His first two starts last summer were five- and six-furlong sprints, one on the turf and one on the dirt, and he wasn't near the front in either.

His third start was stretched out to a mile and he won by more than 10 lengths. He followed that with a win in the Sunday Silence Stakes, and hasn't raced since.

''He's been training great,'' Kaplan said. ''We'd like to have had a prep race, but we'll be OK.''

Patience was everything. That was the first lesson Lazarus learned when got into the racing game, promptly losing his first 22 starts. It's not what he envisioned when he caught the racing bug when he really started focusing on the game from the grandstand at Calder Race Course a few years back.

''I tried to get a job as a sportscaster right out of college when my family moved down here,'' Lazarus said. ''But at that time I was very big into fantasy sports. I played baseball in college, I was really into it, but I didn't want to participate in softball. So I found myself at Calder and somehow the fantasy at Calder and watching the thoroughbreds I wanted to get involved.''

He's not a deep-pocketed owner. Racing is his side job. He's spent the last 20-plus years selling photocopiers for Xerox, and leads a group with plenty of partners.

With a little luck, they might be Kentucky-bound in a few weeks.

''I don't think anyone here has any grandiose plans,'' Lazarus said. ''We want the horse to come out of this race well, looking forward to the future. ... But the feeling you get when your horse wins, it's indescribable.''

**StarDust Bum** · 03-27-2015, 02:34 AM

Chrome ready to shine in richest race

March 26, 2015

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) - It's almost show time for ''rock star'' California Chrome.

The Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner tops an international field of nine Saturday for the $10 million Dubai World Cup, the world's richest horse race. The 4-year-old colt has been training well this week at Meydan Racecourse, and Art Sherman says his 2014 Horse of the Year is all set for a winning performance.

California Chrome will be ridden by Victor Espinoza and break from the outside No. 9 post.

''I love it. Nine is a perfect position for our horse,'' Sherman said. ''I've got all the speed horses to the inside of me and he loves to run from the outside.

''I'm just really glad to be here. We've gotten a lot of texts. He's a rock star all around the world.''

He's also the favorite in an attempt to become the third Kentucky Derby winner to capture the World Cup. Silver Charm won in 1998, and Animal Kingdom won in 2013.

The race, about 1 1/4 miles, will be run on a dirt track for the first time. Post time is 9 p.m. local time, 1 p.m. EDT.

''The surface is not a concern - good horses can run on anything, even Tarmac,'' Sherman said.

Other leading contenders include last year's World Cup winner African Story and Japan Cup winner Epiphaneia.

African Story is owned by Godolphin, the racing empire run by the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

''African Story won this last year on all-weather and proved he can win on dirt (too),'' trainer Saeed bin Suroor said. ''With good horses like him, the surface really makes less difference as the best horses will handle any surface.''

The field, from the rail out, is Prince Bishop, Hokko Tarumae, African Story, Side Glance, Lea, Candy Boy, Long River, Epiphaneia and California Chrome.

Lea is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who won the first World Cup with Cigar in 1996.

''It looks very good and our horse handles it well,'' Mott said of the dirt. ''I feel very good about him.''

California Chrome came up short in the Belmont Stakes in his bid for the Triple Crown, then finished sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby, third in the Breeders' Cup Classic, first in the Hollywood Derby and second in the San Antonio Invitational on Feb. 7.

There are two $6 million races on World Cup's eight-race lineup totaling $29 million in purse money, the Dubai Duty Free Turf and the Dubai Sheema Classic.

Breeders' Cup Turf winner Main Sequence is the lone U.S.-based entry in the Sheema Classic. Mshawish, trained by Todd Pletcher, is entered in the Turf.

The UAE Derby is a Kentucky Derby points qualifying race, and drew a field of 10 3-year-olds, including U.S.-based My Johnny Be Good.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-27-2015, 02:36 AM

International Star is La. Derby favorite

March 25, 2015

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - International Star, who is aiming to sweep all three Kentucky Derby prep races at the New Orleans Fair Grounds, has been made the 3-1 early favorite and drew the No. 9 post for Saturday's $750,000 Louisiana Derby.

Trained by Mike Maker and ridden by Miguel Mena, International Star won the Risen Star last month and the Lecomte in January.

In both victories, International Star rallied to beat War Story, a Tom Amoss-trained horse listed as one of two 4-1 second choices in Wednesday's draw.

War Story will break from the No. 6 post. Mr. Z, trained by D. Wayne Lukas and also at 4-1 in the nine-horse field, leaves from the No. 2 post.

International Star ranks second in Kentucky Derby qualifying points with 71. The Louisiana Derby winner earns 100 points, with 40 for second, 20 for third and 10 for fourth.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-27-2015, 02:37 AM

Firing Line movin' up in AP's Top 10

March 24, 2015

Look out Dortmund, Firing Line may be running head to head with you again on Derby Day.

The 3-year-old colt who twice lost by a head to top-rated Dortmund in California, soared to No. 4 in the AP's latest Run to the Roses' Top 10 Kentucky Derby rankings after a record-setting romp in New Mexico.

While the Land of Enchantment isn't the typical path to the Kentucky Derby, Firing Line's 14 1/4-length victory in Sunday's Sunland Derby is still impressive. He ran 1 1/8 miles in a track record 1:47.39. Plus, he's ridden by three-time Kentucky Derby winner Gary Stevens.

The Hall of Fame jockey says he's in a great spot: ''He did it all very professionally. Real easy. He can do well at the next level.''

And there's this: In 2009, Mine That Bird ran fourth in the Sunland Derby before pulling a huge upset in the Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds.

Firing Line earned 50 Derby qualifying points for the win, and now ranks sixth with 58 points. The Derby field is limited to 20 starters based on points awarded for designated races.

Also, Dubai Sky earned 50 points with a win in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park last weekend, and was a late nomination for the Triple Crown races at a cost of $6,000.

The race for points really heats up Saturday with the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby and the UAE Derby. The point totals double to 100 for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third and 10 for fourth.

Upstart and Itsaknockout top the field for the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where Upstart finished nearly 3 lengths ahead of Itsaknockout in the Fountain of Youth but was DQ'd to second for interference. Upstart is No. 5 this week; Itsaknockout is eighth.

International Star gets his chance for a New Orleans prep sweep in the Louisiana Derby after wins in the Lecomte and Risen Star.

In Dubai, the field for the UAE Derby has three horses nominated for Triple Crown races - Mubtaahij, Maftool and My Johnny Be Good.

Here's our Top 10:

1. Dortmund (Bob Baffert, trainer; Martin Garcia, jockey): Unbeaten colt worked 6 furlongs in 1:12 at Santa Anita on March 21. ... Won San Felipe in last start. ... Baffert says colt still filling out his big frame. ... Next start: Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita (April 4). ... Derby future odds (pool 3): 9-1.

2. Carpe Diem (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez): Still on course after working 4 furlongs in 48.92 at Palm Beach Down on March 21. ... Won Tampa Bay Derby with authority. ... Next start: Blue Grass, Keeneland (April 4). ... Odds: 10-1.

3. American Pharoah (Baffert, Victor Espinoza): More than a week after Rebel romp, colt is back galloping at Santa Anita. ... Return trip to Oaklawn Park still the plan for final Derby prep. ... Next start: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park (April 11). ... Odds: 8-1.

4. Firing Line (Simon Callaghan, Gary Stevens): Won Sunland Derby by 14 1/4 lengths in record time. ... Huge confidence builder after two close calls against Dortmund. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs (May 2) ... Odds: 29-1.

5. Upstart (Rick Violette, Jr., Jose Ortiz): Worked 5 furlongs in 59.55 at Palm Meadows on March 21. ... Game face on, says Violette. ... Holy Bull winner finished first in Fountain of Youth but was DQ'd to second for interference. ... Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park (Saturday). ... Odds: 15-1.

6. El Kabeir (John Terranova, C.C. Lopez): Winter in New York seems to agree with Gotham winner. ... Worked 5 furlongs in 59.97 seconds at Belmont on Sunday. ... Next start: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct (April 4). ... Odds: 47-1.

7. Far From Over (Pletcher, Manuel Franco): Withers winner worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.76 at Palm Beach Downs on Saturday. ... Next start will be just third of career. ... Next start: Wood Memorial. ... Odds: 13-1.

8. Itsaknockout (Pletcher, Luis Saez): Worked 4 furlongs in 48:79 at Palm Beach Downs on March 21. ... Has 3-0 record after being declared winner of Fountain of Youth via DQ of Upstart. ... Next start: Florida Derby (Saturday). ... Odds: 30-1.

9. Far Right (Ron Moquett, Mike Smith):Latest workout was 5 furlongs in 1:00.80 at Oaklawn Park on March 19. ... Smarty Jones and Southwest winner gearing up for final prep. ... Next start: Arkansas Derby (April 11). ... Odds: 31-1.

10. International Star (Mike Maker, Miguel Mena): Lecomte, Risen Star winner gets big chance to prove he's among the top Derby contenders. ... Next start: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds (Saturday). ... Odds: 22-1.

Keep an eye on: Bolo, Classy Class, Dubai Sky, Prospect Park, Mr. Z.

**jcindaville** · 03-27-2015, 09:51 AM

Won't be long Bum before them roses are ready!!

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2015, 03:30 AM

Wood, BG, SA Derby Previews

April 3, 2015

ANTHONY'S ELEVEN (4/3/15)

Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points

1 Mubtaahij Christophe Soumillon Mike de Kock Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 100
2 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett Arkansas Derby (4/11 at OP) 22

3 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 70

4 Frammento Gary Stevens Nick Zito Blue Grass (4/4 at KEE) 10

5 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker Louisiana Derby (3/28 at FG) 171

6 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 58

7 Dubai Sky Jose Lezcano Bill Mott Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 50

8 Prospect Park Kent Desormeaux Clifford Sise, Jr. Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 20

9 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin Wood Memorial (4/4 at Aqu) 13

10 Upstart Jose Ortz Rick Violette, Jr. Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 76

11 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 44

Three more 100 point Kentucky Derby prep races are on tap this Saturday, one week after Materiality, International Star and the new top dog on “Anthony’s Eleven,” Mubtaahij punched their tickets to Louisville with wins in the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby and UAE Derby, respectively.

And while I doubt any one of those three from last week will go off as the chalk just four weeks from now at Churchill Downs, there is a pretty good chance, especially if the morning line proves true in either the G1 Blue Grass or G1 Santa Anita Derby, that the Kentucky Derby favorite is running this Saturday.

Oddly enough, we’ll start this weeks’ action in New York with the race that probably won’t produce the Derby favorite, the G1 Wood Memorial going 1 1/8 miles over the Aqueduct main track. Only seven will run, as Far From Over was forced to withdraw with an injury, while others, like Upstart, opted for another prep race.

Trainer Todd Pletcher may have lost Far From Over but he may still saddle the favorite in Daredevil. Daredevil won the first two starts of his career, including the G1 Champagne, over wet tracks before running poorly in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his first try around two turns and over a dry course.

Daredevil resurfaced some four months later in the G2 Swale going seven furlongs at Gulfstream. Breaking from the rail under regular rider Javier Castellano, Daredevil was taken off the pace and raced wide on the turn but failed to make any impact late, finishing an even second as the 3-5 favorite. He’ll break from post 6.

Like Daredevil, Frosted ships up from Florida for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and comes into this off one of the most mind-boggling efforts I’ve ever seen on a racetrack. After finishing second in the G3 Holy Bull to start the season, Frosted was entered in the G2 Fountain of Youth, sporting blinkers for the first time.

Frosted broke alertly, was forwardly placed throughout and made the lead approaching the far turn with the utmost of ease and looked ready to win for fun. But once the field straightened for the wire, Frosted stopped like he was hit with a baseball bat under Irad Ortiz, Jr. and settled for fourth. In the days and weeks after the race, McLaughlin still hasn’t been able to offer up any excuse for the effort but has trained Frosted aggressively and makes a rider switch to Joel Rosario. He’ll break from post 4.

El Kabeir has called the Big Apple home the entire winter and will look to defend his turf while coming off what was arguably his most impressive effort to date in the G3 Gotham last out, when he came from well off the pace to win by 2 ¾ lengths for trainer John Terranova, III.

After winning the G2 KJC at Churchill on the front end in his final start of last season, El Kabeir rated just off the pace in his G3 Jerome score before fading to second as the 1-2 chalk in the G3 Withers two back when he got cooked up in a mid-race pace battle. As he has all year, Chuckie Lopez will ride from post 5.

Gotham runner-up Tiz Shea D attended a quick pace throughout in his latest, his first over a wet track, around two turns and for his new connections, including trainer Bill Mott, and battled nicely along the inside to regain place money in just the second start of his career. Tiz Shea D broke his maiden easily in a Parx sprint back in February. Manny Franco rides for the first time from the rail.

Toasting Master set the pace in the Gotham for trainer Dale Romans before fading through the stretch to finish fourth. Two starts back, it was the same story in a Florida bred stakes over the Polytrack at the Ocala Training Center. Angel Arroyo has the return call from post 2.

New York bred Tencendur took a ton of action off of a fourth place finish in the Withers when adding blinkers in the Gotham from post 9. He raced wide throughout without ever seriously contending before finishing fifth. He’ll try again from post 7 for trainer George Weaver and new rider Jose Ortiz.

Lieutenant Colonel had a bit of trouble at the break in the Gotham but I doubt it was the main reason he finished last of ten in his only start other than his debut tally going a mile at Gulfstream for Chad Brown. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides from post 3.

Pletcher will certainly saddle the favorite in the Blue Grass at Keeneland as Carpe Diem is even money on the morning line against seven others going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. This will be the first time the Blue Grass is run four weeks out from the Kentucky Derby.

Carpe Diem returns to the scene of his biggest triumph, having easily taken the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall after his debut tally and before his second place finish in the Juvenile, a race in which he looked like he’d be off the board before rallying in the stretch.

Like Daredevil, Carpe Diem was given a four month break and returned in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. Carpe Diem sat a couple of lengths off of the early pace and made the lead as he pleased before cruising to a five length score under his regular pilot John Velazquez, who’ll guide him from post 5.

Classy Class ships in off of a pair of third place finishes in the Withers and Gotham for McLaughlin with Junior Alvarado in the saddle. Winless since his debut victory, Classy Class was up against a pair of biases in the G2 Remsen last year and in the Withers this year then was given a brutal ride by Alvarado last out, first allowing El Kabeir to get inside position on him, then getting steadied a couple of times on the far turn. He’ll break from post 7 and needs to fire his best shot if he is to take down the favorite.

Two time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito ships in Frammento from Florida, hoping this colt can prove worthy of a chance to run for the roses. Frammento, whose lone win in six tries came over this track, added blinkers last out and was the only one making up any ground when third in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Gary Stevens rides for the first time from post 6.

Ocho Ocho Ocho suffered the first loss of his career when returning from a three month layoff in the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita last out when he encountered some traffic in the early going, suffering some superficial cuts to his legs in the process. Last year, Ocho Ocho Ocho won all three starts, including the G3 Delta Jackpot for trainer Jim Cassidy. He’ll break from the rail with Santiago Gonzalez.

Mark Casse’s Danzig Moon went into the Tampa Bay Derby with a ton of buzz after an impressive maiden score in his first start of the year but never fired, finishing a non-threatening fourth. Julien Leparoux rides from post 8.

Gorgeous Bird had his two race win streak snapped when he tried two turns and stepped up into stakes company in the Fountain of Youth most recently when he finished fifth for Ian Wilkes. He’ll be reunited with B.J. Hernandez, his rider as a juvenile, for this. He’ll break from post 4.

Pepper Roani added blinkers two starts back and broke his maiden in the sixth start of his career then finished second in the Battaglia Memorial over the Turfway Polytrack for Mike Mena. He’ll break from post 3 with Miguel Mena. Unrivaled won his last pair by daylight at Parx for trainer Marya Montoya and gets a rider change to Robby Albarado from post 2.

Out in California, the undefeated Dortmund leads a field of six in the G1 Santa Anita Derby going 1 1/8 miles on the main track for Bob Baffert, who’ll also send out One Lucky Dane.

After coming from just off the pace in his three juvenile victories, jockey Martin Garcia has kept Dortmund in the game more as a sophomore. He alternated on the lead through most of his gutsy score in the G3 Robert Lewis then went gate-to-wire last out in the G2 San Felipe. It’ll be interesting to see what Garcia does from his rail draw in here.

One Lucky Dane broke his maiden in the third start of his career, his first on dirt, and was so impressive that Baffert ran him back in the Juvenile where he finished sixth. In his lone start this year, a little over two weeks ago, he won an allowance/optional claimer by nearly 10 lengths. Rafael Bejarano returns from post 2.

The second and third place finishers from the San Felipe, Prospect Park and Bolo, are back for another crack at Dortmund and will likely take two different approaches to beating him.

Trained by Clifford Sise, Jr., Prospect Park came from off the pace last out to grab the place money from Bolo but still finished 1 ¼ lengths behind the winner. His rider, Kent Desormeaux, admitted after the race that he tried to “hide” from Dortmund, knowing his penchant for responding favorably to a tussle. He’ll break from post 5.

Bolo, on the other hand, took the fight to Dortmund on the far turn and stayed with him to deep stretch before tiring ever so slightly in the final sixteenth for trainer Carla Gaines. It was Bolo’s first start in nine weeks and first on dirt as he won two of his three starts last year, including the Eddie Logan, on the grass. Mike Smith rides from post 4.

Jerry Hollendorfer sends out Cross the Line, runner-up in the G3 El Camino Real Derby over the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields last out. In fact, Cross the Line has made all five of his career starts at that northern California track, including his win in the California Derby two back. Juan Hernandez rides from post 3.

Bad Read Sanchez returns from an eight month layoff for trainer Doug O’Neill and Mario Gutierrez from post 6. Bad Read Sanchez broke his maiden here in his debut then finished second in a minor stakes at Los Alamitos before finishing third in the G3 Best Pal over the synthetic surface at Del Mar.

Prep Play of the Day

Last week we hit the saver exacta in the Florida Derby and got split in the Louisiana Derby. Dems da breaks. This week, bet $40 to win on Frosted in the Wood Memorial and make a $30 exacta using Dortmund over Bolo in the Santa Anita Derby. Total cost is $70. Good luck!!!!

Bankroll: Minus $58

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