Oaks/Derby Double

[weazel079]

Only play I'm going to make unless my play is finished after the Oaks. Taking what I think are the top 3 talents in the Oaks. I'm expecting/hoping for a total pace meltown in the Derby so I'm going with what I think is the best of the closers. The weather could play a major factor although.

Oaks: #5 Blind Luck, #12 Ailalea, #13 Amen Hallelujah
Derby: #1 Lookin at Lucky, #16 Awesome Act, #17 Dublin

[weazel079]

A system that I have been keeping track of for some time has had some success. It uses one filter the elimantes a horse or two and then ranks them. Usually come up with 2 to 3 horses to bet. Since 98' it has picked winners Real Quite $18.80, Monarchos $23, War Emblem $43, Funny Cide $27.60, Smarty Jones $10.20, Barbaro $14.20, Street Sense $11.80, Big Brown $6.80

Didn't use this for last years derby and I was trying to find past performances for it so I can't say how it did. 8 winners out of 11 derby's using 2 or 3 selections for each race. Here we go for this year.

- Eliminate any runner that has failed to run one of its 2 highest lifetime beyer numbers in its last 2 races Eliminate: Jackson Bend A horse needs to be in top form for the derby. Many horses have been over bet in the Derby because they were stars at age 2 but have not developed further. Past examples are Pyro an Sun King

- The next is elminate any horse that did not race before December. There are none. Fudge factor - horses that only race 1 time before December deserve to be looked at for elimination. Eliminate: Line of David

- Next elminate any horses that has not run in the last 45 days. Usually means something is wrong with horse and conditioning may be a problem. Eliminate: Homeboykris Past example is Friesan Fire

That leaves 17 horses left to be ranked using the most important number. Rank em based on there 2nd highest lifetime beyer. Horses will usually throw in one really good effort right before the Derby. Usually this happens because the horse ran over a biased track or the trainer had the horse ready to run a peak race prior to the Derby to get enough earnings to qualify for the race. So called experts will jump on these types of horses even though they lack the foundation to win this grueling race for a 3 year old. Past examples are Cliffs Edge, Bellamy Road, and Sinister Minister. This years fraud is #1 Looking at Lucky. Time to rank them.

Sidney's Candy 99
Conveyance 97
Dublin 96
American Lion 94
Super Saver 93
Awesome Act 93
Discreetly Mine 92
Looking Lucky 91
Nobles Promise 91
Ice Box 89
Devil May Care 89
Mission Implazible 89
Paddy O'Prado 87
Deans Kitchen 84
Backtalk 84
Make Music for me 82
Statley Victor 81


The rule is that the contenders are the top 2 highest rated horses and those within 1 point of the second ranked horse. That leaves 3 contenders for the Roses.

I got my double going already. So I'm playing.

$40 to win on #20 and #17
$20 to win on #12