Some Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[elevenblack301]

Was just going thru my usual capping of the potential contenders for this years derby, and as always am looking for the dogs to be barking.

Should be a nice payout if the two favs don't make the board, or at least don't win.

The long odds that I am looking at now, ( I know the field hasn't been selected yet , but I like to be prepared );

1. Icebox ............ great late kick in the Fla derby

2. Endorsement...... huge beyer jump in last race, nice speed

3. Conveyence........... always in the money and it might be time for a grey horse to win again

4. Setsuko............... love this colt, off the pace monster... reminds me of Charismatic.... but is out of the grade earning list ( 22nd at the moment )... need some things above him to make the cut.... the only thing that scares me about him is most all his trips have been on synthetic


Love this time of year...................

[spanky126]

I agree with your picks at odds but if Esky runs his race, it's history IMO...but I still like Ice Box to win by a neck...

[meaiken]

i am starting to be turned off by ice box. Too many starting to like him and now with Mike Watchmaker on him so big non-horse players wil drive the price down, plus he's a loser.

[griswold]

Just my opinion and please take no offense but I don't like Ice Box. (I do like your Endorsement and Setsuko picks, although Setsuko probably won't get in). Ice Box won the Flordia Derby only because all the speed horses stopped. The Zito horse I'm very intrigued with is Jackson Bend who is totally under the radar but has the perfect running style and is very game. The problem is he may not get into the race and is short on earnings right now

[elevenblack301]

Thanks for all of the replies and comments, appreciate it, as I think this derby is going to be a big payout, if we can just get the dogs to play out, maybe something like a few years ago with Giacoma

Spanky, I do not think Eske will run his race again, I think he may bounce off his last race, two beyers over 100, maybe he ran his best race a few weeks ago.

And how many faves win this race, with all of the maneuvering about with 20 horses etc.. I am looking for some big dogs to be barking come May 1.....

But I must agree with you guys that Icebox is now becoming the wise guy pick.... I was hoping that wouldn’t happen..... hope his odds stay above 8-1..... If I was going to thro a fave in there, might have to be Lookin at Lucky..... due for a big day...

Gris, Jackson Bend is another interesting suggestion, wow 9 starts with 5 wins and 4 places... how can one not throw him in the exotics... A little slow in time though...

Keep em coming...

Still really like Setsuko ( please get in ), and Endorsement...

Has anyone ever won the derby as a first time starter on the dirt ?

[WayneChung]

eleven black,there are 6 legit speed horses,i am going to look for the best stalk and pouncer !!

[elevenblack301]

well now that eske is out, still think he wouldn't have run well though, it does not change much of my thinking though.

still looking for an off the pace runner, a big puppy, who will sit off the pace and pounce , just like you say WC....

[elevenblack301]

Well two of my selections will not be running this Saturday, Endorsement ailing and Setsuko did not make the cut.... Look for Setsuko to run big in the next two legs and will win one of em.... Love this colt !!

Now that the post positions have been drawn, let’s take a closer look at each contender and make some selections;

1.) Lookin at Lucky
----- the fave going off will be this colt, and he has been selected to come out of the dreaded # 1 post........ I am not worried about that, most of the Derby winners have come from the 1 or 5 post, and he doesn’t want to be in the speed race to begin with..... the slop might bother him though....if I can get 3-1 or better, will place him in my exotics

2.) Ice Box
----- one of my selections from the start, like Zito, and like that this colt comes from off the pace, will be running in the end.... his last three races have been all 1 1/18, so he is ready to go that extra 1/8....... will be in all of my plays

3.) Noble’s Promise
----- not a good trip his last time out, just can’t get a feel for him yet

4.) Super Saver
----- here is an interesting choice, will Pletcher win a derby. He is 5/6 lifetime, 2/2 on wet surfaces and won at Churchill. He will be in the strecth running his heart out... his Beyers have been improving also, something that is good to see..... will be in all of my plays

5.) Line of David
----- this horse does not like the wet slop, working very poorly, so if it is wet, throw him out, will be in the bottom 10 at the end of the race

6.) Stately Victor
----- had a great and very fast Blue Grass run.. Don’t think he can repeat that performance though, but I will throw him some exotics

7.) American Lion
----- won a very slow Ill Derby..... will not be in this at the end

8.) Dean’s Kitten
----- will be one of the longest odds on the board, has the most races under his belt than all other contenders.... just don’t see him competing though.... have to do some capping on him to see if he is worth a play in the exotics

9.) Make Music For Me
----- throw this horse out

10.) Paddy O Prado
------ I think it is time that a Gray horse wins again, and this might be the one, Desormeaux will have him coming in the end, sitting in the middle of the pack... will have him in the exotics

11.) Devil May Care
----- I have lost more money on the Fillies and the horses from Dubai in this race, than I want to mention, everyone likes this filly, Why, I do not know... thinks she will get bounced around , has some slop thrown in her face and fades

12.) Conveyance
----- will be on the early lead with the other speed horses, another Gray that I like, if the fractions are slow, will be able to finish, if the fractions are on fire, will hit a wall...... I am betting on slow fractions and will play this Gray in all of my plays... he is always in the money

13.) Jackson Bend
----- Zito number two horse, I like Zito, this horse has hit the board 9/9, how can someone not play him in the exotics, and his arch nemesis is not around, he does not have to worry about Eske

14.) Mission Impazible
----- likes the wet stuff and likes CD, will Pletcher win a derby, will have him in some exotics as well, he may be ready to explode

15.) Discreetly Mine
----- slow times and poor beyers, do not like him at all

16.) Awesome Act
----- Think he will be bet down from the 10-1 odds, could be another wiseguy horse like IceBox... Still haven’t made up my mind on him, has been working well on the slop

17.) Dublin
----- good colt, increasing beyers, good speed, but does not like the slop.... still haven’t made up my mind on him yet also

18.) Backtalk
----- this horse will be going backwards in the end, but wait a minute, he loves the slop 2/2 and loves Churchill 2/2...... still think he will be going backwards though

19.) Homeboykris
----- should not like this distance, will be in the last 10 at the end

20.) Sidney’s Candy
----- what will Talamo do at the start, run for the lead with all of the other speed, or cut to the inside and get the dirt thrown at em.... has the fastest time for a mile and the 1/8 out of all .... but that 20 post is not good..... will be in some of my plays though


Those are some comments, will be back tommorrow some time with the plays..... I love this time of the year, have loved the horses ever since I was a little tike....

Gl to all, looking for some big payouts on this one..

[aces r wild]

Thanks for the advice!

[kbsooner21]

Thanks for the thoughts 11B!

[elevenblack301]

From everything that I can see, it is going to be one wet derby tomorrow, so I am planning on playing the following considering a slopfest;


1st Tier; ( will play these horses to WPS, and on top and boxed with the other selections I have on exactas, tris and superfectas )

2 - Icebox
4 - Super Saver
12 - Conveyance
16 - Awesome Act

2nd Tier; ( will add these horses to the undercard of my exotics, and wheels )

1 - Lookin at Lucky
6 - Stately Victor
10 - Paddy O Prado
13 - Jackson Bend
14 - Mission Impazible
17 - Dublin
18 - Backtalk
20 - Sidney’s Candy

Good luck to all, should be a big payout on the exotics when these hit the board.

[elevenblack301]

Wow what an absolutely fantastic day at Churchill yesterday.

Congrats again to Calvin " ride the rail " Borel, for his amazing ride. I'll tell you a jockey makes the difference, when it comes to evenly matched horses.

The race went aalmost exactly as I thought.

Super Saver ( 2/2 at Churchill and 2/2 on the slop ) fired as expected. Ice Box came late as a closer.... as expected and one of the Gray horses came in the money.

I had a big day, hitting the winner, the place horse, the exacta, the trifecta, and the superfecta ( .10 cent wager ).

Wow what a day, had a lot of fun filling out the " Uncle Sam " forms, but what the hell.....

Just love this time of the year, hope some of you hit the boards yesterday also.

See you in two weeks for the 2nd leg.....

[WayneChung]

Wow what an absolutely fantastic day at Churchill yesterday.

Congrats again to Calvin " ride the rail " Borel, for his amazing ride. I'll tell you a jockey makes the difference, when it comes to evenly matched horses.

The race went aalmost exactly as I thought.

Super Saver ( 2/2 at Churchill and 2/2 on the slop ) fired as expected. Ice Box came late as a closer.... as expected and one of the Gray horses came in the money.

I had a big day, hitting the winner, the place horse, the exacta, the trifecta, and the superfecta ( .10 cent wager ).

Wow what a day, had a lot of fun filling out the " Uncle Sam " forms, but what the hell.....

Just love this time of the year, hope some of you hit the boards yesterday also.

See you in two weeks for the 2nd leg.....

good work bro,went up to the otb,hit a little win money on borel and caught the exacta,but did not have #10 "paddy o prado" or #9 "make music for me",but i do not play tris or supers,so it was all good,VERY NICE CAPPING MY FRIEND !!

[elevenblack301]

Thanks Wayne, good to hear you hit on Borel too.... that guy loves the rail at Churchill.... surprised other Jocks don't keep him off of it....

He has been a moneymaker these last 4 years....

Looking for another big payday in the Belmont, but first the Preakness

[meaiken]

Seems like a great day. But how did u bet a ten cent super when they weren't allowed Friday or Saturday?