Kentucky Derby Discussion

[BillMill71]

Thought I would just put out my initial thoughts after odds and post positions. Will probably change a bit, but here they are.

- I am thinking of throwing away the following horses out of my top three exotic plays: Hold Me Back/Papa Clem/Chocolate Candy/Atomic Rain/ Summer Bird/Nowhere to Hide

- Big Longshots I still have in my top 3: West Side Bernie/Musket Man/Mr Hot Stuff/Advise/Mine that Bird/Join in the Dance/Regal Ransom/Desert Party/Flying Private/General Quarters

- Big Longshots I am thinking of playing on top: West Side Bernie/Mine That Bird

- Two horses I see definitely in the top 4 and part of various Super Key Wheels: I Want Revenge/Dunkirk

If I had to make a play now these horses would be my focus: West Side Bernie/Friesan Fire/Mine That Bird/I Want Revenge/Dunkirk/Musket Man

More to follow tomorrow night to narrow my plays down.

Thoughts from folks?

[kbsooner21]

How much money does the typical bettor spend betting the derby?

After all my bets are done, I'm planning on spending $150-200. Is that too much? Too little? Normal??

[kbsooner21]

Probably a 4 horse tri box for $48.

Couple 3 horse ex box's for $12 a piece.

Probably $10 across on 3 longshots and a few others.

I'm such a fucking novice

[FB Coach13]

Hey Bill I like Musketman, but he got a VERY shitty draw on the inside, you think he can overcome this

[FB Coach13]

KB, for me it depends i go to the Off Track a few hours early, have some beers and play some other races. The minium I usually spend is about $100, but if im up on the day from the other races I will spend more.

[BillMill71]

How much money does the typical bettor spend betting the derby?

After all my bets are done, I'm planning on spending $150-200. Is that too much? Too little? Normal??

The pools are swelling. Everyone bets this race. It is better to play it like a shotgun, rather then cap it because this is the craziest enviroment these horses will race in, 20 damn horses trying to make the corner.

I personally spend about $200 - $400. And mix it amongst various plays. Depends, I usually bet that on an entire day, not on one race, but I will here.

I think overall your betting strategy is sound. $2 exactas usually pay $90+ obvioulsy based on horse odds. Trifecta hundreds to thousands. $1 Exacta and Tri Boxes 5 or 6 or even 7 deep will still make money, not like a normal weekend.

I really love W P or S bets here as even favorites pay nice.

Keys or wheels are great bets in the exotics if you can narrow down to 3 you really like, with other odds horses from the field.

Good Luck whatever you do

[kbsooner21]

Thanks guys!

[BillMill71]

Hey Bill I like Musketman, but he got a VERY shitty draw on the inside, you think he can overcome this

I think Musketman and West Side Bernie stand a chance in there unlike others to hit the corner ahead of the madness just behind Join in the Dance, Mind that Bird, Advice, Friesan Fire and one of bin Suroor horses. I they do (a BIG if) I think they can be in this.

[ravenmaniac]

National Weather Service is calling for quite a bit of rain in Louisville over the next 48 hours. Good chance the track comes up sloppy. Friesan Fire went 1 1/16 miles in the slop in winning the Louisana Derby last time out. Regardless of track conditions I like FF's chances come Saturday.

[wayne1218]

After all my bets are done, I'm planning on spending $150-200. Is that too much? Too little? Normal??

For a 2 minute race ... That's fucken CRAZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
































Unless you win!

[BillMill71]

National Weather Service is calling for quite a bit of rain in Louisville over the next 48 hours. Good chance the track comes up sloppy. Friesan Fire went 1 1/16 miles in the slop in winning the Louisana Derby last time out. Regardless of track conditions I like FF's chances come Saturday.

FF is definitely a play and as they say bred for a wet track. But I will tell you, last year and I believe the year before they called for a sloppy track. Last year it ended up being fast. It drains so fast and such a great crew, I say their will be moisture, but I doubt it would be tagged "sloppy"

[kbsooner21]

For a 2 minute race ... That's fucken CRAZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!









Unless you win!

Greatest 2 minutes in sports!!!












Right next to my sex life, and I don't know if I consider that a sport

[meaiken]

Hey Bill I like Musketman, but he got a VERY shitty draw on the inside, you think he can overcome this

If you like Musketman (which I do also), you have to like General Quarters (who I really like).

Fruisen Fire is one of my top horse b/c he's proven over an off track which it looks like it might be.

I have liked Pioneer of the Nile since January, but he's the youngest horse in the field (doesn't turn an actually 3 till later this year)

I want reveange is really impressive.

Not really sold on Dunkirk (but I also wasn't sold on Big Brown, Street Sense, Giacamo, Smarty Jones and Funny Cide--The past 5 winners)

Gonna have my final picks early tommrrow.

[WayneChung]

wildbill,i have it down to choco candy,dunkirk,desert party,pioneer,and i want revenge // doing 5 horse 1-trl box and 2 dollar exacta box....

[WayneChung]

wildbill,i have it down to choco candy,dunkirk,desert party,pioneer,and i want revenge // doing 5 horse 1-trl box and 2 dollar exacta box....

with that being said,this is the toughest race ever to cap,my bets will cost 100 total....