Kentucky derby stats and info

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Anyone with info or stats please post.

Derby winners by post position.

post winners
1 12
2 9
3 8
4 10
5 12
6 6
7 8
8 9
9 4
10 10
11 3
12 3
13 4
14 2
15 3
16 3
17 0
18 1
19 0
20 1

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How derby favs fared over past 21 years:

favorite 21 starts 3 wins 4 place 2 show
2nd choice 21 starts 4 wins 3 place 3 show
3rd choice 21 starts 2 wins 2 place 1 show

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Dutrow, Big Brown buck Derby trends

As a rule, a 2-year-old maiden race on turf at Saratoga is not the launchpad for the Kentucky Derby, but trainer Rick Dutrow has never been accused of being overly concerned with the rules.

Following an improbable path that most recently featured a resounding victory in the March 29 Florida Derby, Big Brown is now among the favorites for America's most famous horse race, which is now just over one month away.

Big Brown began his career on the turf at Saratoga Sept. 3 for owner Paul Pompa and trainer Patrick Reynolds, who we hope managed to cash a ticket or two when the son of Boundary tow-roped a 10-horse field of maidens, drawing off down the stretch to win by an eye-opening 11 1/4 lengths and paying $31.40 to win.

The victory was on the Spa's closing-day card, when the Bill Mott-trained Majestic Warrior won the featured Hopeful Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths and moved to the forefront of early contenders for the 2008 Kentucky Derby.

Both horses attracted the attention of some of the industry's most discerning eyes. John Magnier's Coolmore operation, always on the lookout for future stallion prospects, cut a deal with New York Yankees boss George Steinbrenner, Majestic Warrior's owner and breeder, to buy a half-interest in the son of A.P. Indy shortly after that Grade 1 triumph. No price was disclosed, but the buzz around the deal put the value of the colt well in excess of $20 million. Majestic Warrior remained under the care of Mott, who despite his Hall of Fame credentials has never had a serious candidate for the Kentucky Derby.

Less than two weeks after his maiden win, a majority interest in Big Brown was purchased by IEAH Stables and the colt was turned over to Dutrow, who would likely need to climb over a number of dead bodies before joining Mott in the Hall of Fame at the National Museum of Racing in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. Big Brown's price was not disclosed, either, but it most assuredly was far less than what Coolmore paid for its half interest in Majestic Warrior.

Since Sept. 3, Big Brown has taken both of his subsequent starts: an off-the-turf mile allowance race March 5 at Gulfstream Park that he won by 12 3/4 lengths, and the Florida Derby, which resulted in a five-length wire-to-wire victory.

Majestic Warrior, on the other hand, has gone 0-for-3 since being sold, failing to hit the board and suffering double-digit losses in the Champagne, Louisiana Derby, and Florida Derby.

Big Brown has been plagued with quarter cracks in two feet that caused Dutrow to detour him from his original goals: the Pilgrim Stakes on the turf at Belmont last Sept. 29 and the inaugural Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Monmouth Park Oct. 26. But after some time off, the colt began picking up his feet in miraculous fashion while training at Palm Meadows in South Florida this winter, even outworking the graded stakes winner Diamond Stripes on one occasion. The latter, incidentally, buoyed Big Brown's Florida Derby chances when he won the Group 1 Godolphin Mile on the Dubai World Cup program earlier in the day March 29.

Following Big Brown's huge allowance win at Gulfstream, Dutrow and the IEAH management team decided to point the colt for the Florida Derby, which came up weak and included only two graded stakes winners: the aforementioned Majestic Warrior and Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes winner Smooth Air.

Big Brown overcame the outside post position in the field of 12, with jockey Kent Desormeaux gunning the colt toward the front in a very short run to the first turn. He set extremely fast fractions and kept on going without ever being serious threatened. If Dutrow and his veterinarian can keep Big Brown healthy, the colt will be a serious threat to win the Kentucky Derby, despite his relative lack of racing experience.

Dutrow has plenty of big-time experience, having won three Breeders' Cup races, including the 2005 Classic with Horse of the Year Saint Liam. The 48-year-old son of the late Maryland trainer Dick Dutrow has had several run-ins with racing officials, however, and served a 60-day suspension in 2005 for breaking medication and claiming rules. Last year, he was suspended 14 days for violating the terms of that 2005 suspension.

For owners who want results, Dutrow is as good as they come. He is consistently ranked among the trainers with the highest winning percentage, and has a knack for moving horses up after acquiring them from other trainers.

You might not like Rick Dutrow, but you've got to respect his chances to break through May 3 with Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby.

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ADRIANO:
Strengths: He might be one of the best candidates to get the mile and a quarter on Saturday. He has never raced at less than 1 1/16 miles in his seven career starts, giving him a good foundation for the distance demands. He also is a fresh horse, as he will be making his first start since his March 22 win in the Grade 2 Lane’s End on Polytrack at Turfway Park. Edgar Prado, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2006 with Barbaro, partnered with Adriano for the first time in the Lane’s End and has chosen to stick with him over Grade 1 Blue Grass winner Monba.

Weaknesses: He has not won on conventional dirt. In his one start on it, he finished ninth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, a 1 1/8-mile race that went in a modest time of 1:50. As for his Lane’s End, the effort was not flattered by runner-up Halo Najib nor third-place finisher Medjool, who came back in their next starts to run a respective seventh and eighth in the Blue Grass.

Strategy: Adriano needs a ground-saving trip Saturday, as well as good pace up front to fuel his late run. It appears the fractions should be honest, at the very least, courtesy of such quick rivals as Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Recapturetheglory, and perhaps the filly Eight Belles.

Value: Adriano needs a ground-saving trip Saturday, as well as good pace up front to fuel his late run. It appears the fractions should be honest, at the very least, courtesy of such quick rivals as Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Recapturetheglory, and perhaps the filly Eight Belles.


Anak Nakal
Strengths: He has moved forward in his last two starts and could be coming up to a peak effort in the Derby. Sharp half-mile work here April 25 is another positive sign that he could be coming around at just the right time. He ran the best race of his career here as a 2-year-old, and from the looks of his latest work, he appears to thrive on this surface. His pedigree is a big plus as it strongly suggests that 10 furlongs will be well within his range.

Weaknesses: The Wood set up perfectly for him, but despite a painfully slow final eighth, he wasn’t able to make much of an impact in the stretch. That was also a pretty weak field he beat in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club last year, and he really hasn’t proved that he can compete with the top horses in this division. His career-best Beyer Figure is also quite a bit below what the prominent players in the field have posted.

Strategy: He did show a bit more tactical speed the last time he ran here, and with the sharp work on display, Leparoux should have him a bit closer than he was in the Wood.

Value: The price is going to be deservedly huge, and I won’t have any tickets with him on top. The “all” option for the bottom half of the exotics is the only place I will consider using him in any of my tickets.

BIG BROWN
Strengths: Appears to be the fastest 3-year-old based on his Florida Derby romp, where he paired up 106 Beyer Speed Figures. Accomplished his graded stakes debut victory from impossible post position 12. Had a brilliant workout after the Florida Derby. Kent Desormeaux seeks his third Kentucky Derby-winning ride (2 for 14), while trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. has been full of confidence about the colt, sold for $3 million after winning his career debut by more than 11 lengths on the Saratoga turf. “If he breaks clean, it’s a mismatch to me on paper, said Dutrow.

Weaknesses: Like Curlin, who entered last year’s Derby 3 for 3 and finished third, Big Brown gives away racing experience and seasoning to the field. Having only two races as a 3-year-old worked out well for Street Sense last year, but 3-year-olds with only two prep races are 2 for the last 55. Has never been worse than second at the first call in any of his three races, and a quick start from the gate is a must. The 1915 Derby winner, Regret, is the last runner to win with just three career races before the Derby – interesting that the Derby was just the first race of her 3-year-old season. He also enters off more than a 30-day layoff; Barbaro was able to accomplish the feat, but he was the first to win the Derby off a similar layoff since Needles in 1956.

Strategy: Wants to be on or near the lead; clearly having the 2-year-old champion and super-fast-from-the-gate War Pass not in this race has to help his pace chances. He sat just off the lead in his Gulfstream allowance laugher, but was used early through strong fractions from a difficult draw in the Florida Derby, but then kept on going and going, opening up the advantage with every stride; should be a force from start to finish.

Value: The betting favorite in a 20-horse wagering event means you get a better price than the typical chalk. The betting favorite never used to win the Kentucky Derby, but last year Street Sense was the favored winner, and in 2004 Smarty Jones was the bettors’ choice (2 for last 4). Considering the trainer stated he’s going “all in,” and since he looked unbeatable in the Florida Derby with the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field, he projects to be the biggest-bet Derby favorite since 2000, when Big Brown’s rider Desormeaux won with 2.60-1 Fusaichi Pegasus.


BIG TRUCK
Strengths: Here’s a New York-bred trained by Barclay Tagg – ring a bell? Trainer of Funny Cide, the 2003 Derby hero, saddles this runner who began his career in promising fashion in New York. Colt’s only open-company win came in a Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby best remembered for champion War Pass’s major flop as the 1-20 favorite. Respect the fact that he has learned to rate/finish effectively at 3, and if many can dismiss Pyro’s Blue Grass defeat on Polytrack, why can’t they do the same for Big Truck when he was also making his synthetic-surface debut?

Weaknesses: Since beginning his career with two victories over fellow statebreds, Big Truck has yet to deliver upon the confidence expressed by his trainer early on. The Blue Grass 11th-place finisher will be ridden by Javier Castellano as regular rider Eibar Coa opts for the barn’s other Derby starter, Tale of Ekati. Tampa Bay Derby score can be criticized since War Pass simply didn’t fire and the runner he outgamed (Atoned) came back to finish off the board in both the Lexington (8th) and Illinois Derby (4th).

Strategy: A slow pace appears essential for this Derby longshot to contend. Castellano will likely look to establish forward position in fourth or fifth, perhaps three or four lengths off the lead, and hope to grind out a piece of the $2 million purse by getting the jump on the deep closers.

Value: Big Truck will be a longer price than stablemate Tale of Ekati, perhaps in the neighborhood of 40-1. Those projecting a soft pace and fast footing may bank on him injecting value into the trifecta or superfecta, although an outright upset appears out of reach.


Bob Black Jack
Strengths: He’s fast and has shown he can carry it. He was fast enough to set a six-furlong track record at Santa Anita this winter, but classy and versatile enough to be a close second going 1 1/8 miles in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.

Weaknesses: While he’s got speed, if they try to be up on the pace things could get dicey as there’s plenty of other zip signed up. His three wins have all come sprinting, so while he’s run well in his two routes he remains winless routing. As with a few other West Coast raiders, this will mark his first attempt on a traditional dirt surface.

Strategy: He’s got speed, to be sure, and his natural speed has had him right up on the pace. In the Santa Anita Derby his speed had him pressing the issue, but he showed he could settle and maintain a nice gallop. That left him with gas in the tank to continue on well for a fine Santa Anita Derby finish. Even so, he’ll need to save a lot as furlong No. 10, particularly if he prompts a brisk pace, could get a little tough for him.

Value: Seems to be very much under the radar, despite some quality work and his proximity to Colonel John at the end of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby (beaten just a half-length). Despite that he figures to be ignored in the wagering and could easily be over 20-1 despite a number of items on the asset side of his ledger.

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Colonel John
Strengths: His is without question the leader of the West Coast ranks, having won the Grade 3 Sham and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He’s bred to relish this trip – sire Tiznow was a two-time winner of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles and damsire Turkoman was a champion handicap horse who did his best work at 10 furlongs. While there are questions about his ability to handle this surface, he dispelled much of that with a dizzying 57.80-second breeze here Monday.

Weaknesses: He has never raced on dirt, but he is bred for it and has handled the Churchill track well in the mornings. He also has just two preps as a 3-year-old – only two of the last 53 to try that have won the Derby – Sunny’s Halo and Street Sense.

Strategy: While he usually sits back and make a run, his Sham win, when he was right up on the pace, albeit a slow one, shows he’s not a one-dimensional deep closer. He sprinted quite nicely at age 2, showing speed on those occasions so that versatility gives rider Corey Nakatani a chance to get position where he pleases, likely in midpack.

Value: His bandwagon has gotten a bit more crowded in recent weeks, particularly off his strong works since the Santa Anita Derby. He may still be second choice behind Big Brown, probably around 5-1, so don’t expect to get rich if he win . . . unless you get the right ones into those exotic supporting spots.

COOL COAL MAN
Strengths: Owns a win over the Churchill main track, and that was one of his better efforts. That was an entry-level allowance but he beat Derby hopeful Recapturetheglory in that one, and he did it despite race-long pressure on the lead. He threw in a clunker in his latest but Keeneland's synthetic surface provides an easy excuse, and that sharp work on April 24 indicates he’s in fine form, fueling the theory that he just didn’t handle the track in the Blue Grass. The 98 Beyer he earned in the Fountain of Youth two back gives him strong credibility and his trainer knows how to win this race.

Weaknesses: Best Beyers have come at Gulfstream, and that includes his top effort in terms of figures, when he won the Fountain of Youth with the aid of a perfect trip. He comes off a weak effort in the Blue Grass, his first try against Grade 1 company, and that was despite a forward trip on top of some slow fractions. He likes to be close-up early on, and if there are quick fractions in the Derby that could cost him, because he’s unlikely to stave off the closers if he’s asked to stay close to a up-tempo pace.

Strategy: Hasn’t shown that he can come from well out of it, and at this extended distance he figures to be involved early, stalking the leaders. He will look to get first run on the leaders, before the closers begin mounting a stretch try.

Value: That dull Blue Grass try in his latest ensures a playable price in the Derby but he figures to have a tough time lasting late after pushing the likes of Big Brown from the start.


Court Vision
Strengths: He has been tested for class, as he exits the Grade 1 Wood Memorial in which he finished a close third to Tale of Ekati and 2-year-old champion War Pass. He also brings surface success to the table. In his lone start at Churchill Downs, he won the Grade 3 Iroquois. Court Vision’s consistency also stands out. He has won 3 of 6 career starts, and has never finished worse than third. His wins include the Grade 2 Remsen at 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct last November. Just two months later, the prominent ownership group IEAH Stable bought an interest in the colt, who will be ridden by Eclipse Award winner Garrett Gomez.

Weaknesses: He is a closer, making him dependent on pace and a decent trip in the large field of 20. He also has yet to crack triple digits on the Beyer Speed Figure scale, with the career-best 90 he earned in the Wood rating 16 points lower than the 106 earned by probable Kentucky Derby favorite Big Brown in his final prep, the Florida Derby.

Strategy: He could get a great pace to run at down Churchill’s long stretch, thanks to front-runners Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Recapturetheglory, and perhaps the filly Eight Belles.

Value: There is reason to believe he could be coming into a peak race for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott in his third start off the layoff. But win backers should get good value on him with the betting focus expected to be on horses who won major preps in their final starts before the Kentucky Derby.

COWBOY CAT
Strengths: His Blue Grass effort was fine, especially considering the two-month layoff, and his tactical speed gives him a great shot at a good trip in the big Derby field. No real doubts about his ability to get 10 furlongs, since he has ample stamina on both sides of his pedigree, and he hails from a powerhouse barn. Both works at Keeneland were strong, and he finished and galloped out strongly last Saturday. Seems to be coming up to the Derby in prime form.

Weaknesses: He has no dirt form at all, and Pletcher compounded the problem for handicappers by giving him his last two workouts on Polytrack. His Beyers are low, so he will need a breakthrough effort to be competitive, and the barn, for all its accomplishments, has yet to solve the Derby puzzle.

Strategy: Don’t really see him going to the front with other, probably superior speed in the field, but he won’t be far away in the early going and he has demonstrated a passing gear on turf. Look for him to be among the top four early, and he should be within easy striking distance when they turn for home.

Value: The fact that he is unproven on dirt and the need for a substantial Beyer boost to contend should make him upwards of 20-1, and that’s pretty enticing for a runner who has been in the exacta in 5 of 6 starts. Unlikely to win, but he could enliven the exotics


Denis of Cork
Strengths: He’s lightly raced so there’s plenty of upside to him. He returns to the scene of his debut maiden score and he has been working extremely well over the track, which gives him an edge over many of his Derby rivals. His sire was a Grade 1 winner going long and his dam’s sire, Unbridled, won the Kentucky Derby back in 1990. His jockey, Calvin Borel, won this race on Street Sense last year and is used to the hype surrounding the event.

Weaknesses: His winning streak came to an end last out in the Illinois Derby and history has shown that it’s difficult to overcome a lackluster effort in a final Kentucky Derby prep. He runs better from well off the pace and in such a big field he could find trouble as he commences his rally. He still hasn’t run very fast and will need a career best effort to have a say in the outcome.

Strategy: He is best when taken back and allowed to make one late run so he would probably be best positioned towards the outside to avoid traffic. While the pace doesn’t figure to be too quick, it should be contested and that will help his late kick.

Value: He figures to be in the neighborhood of 30-1, watch is a far cry from the even-money price at which he was offered in the Illinois Derby. A case can be made that he will be better in his return to Churchill and if the change in scenery does indeed perk him up then he will represent excellent value.

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Eight Belles
Strengths: She is in the midst of a four-race win streak, during which she earned an average Beyer Speed Figure of 96.5. Like the other fillies who have won the Derby, she is large in stature, and she might be able to regroup if she gets bumped in the early going. Her trainer sent out Hard Spun to finish second in the 2007 Derby, so he knows the ropes.

Weaknesses: After breaking awkwardly, she was all out to collar a little-known front-runner while heavily favored in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes. Her two most recent scores at Oaklawn both came in small fields against mediocre opposition, and she has never faced anything close to the caliber of competition that she is about to meet. Her dam was a sprinter, and her sire was the beaten favorite in the 1996 Derby.

Strategy: She has done most of her optimum running after stalking tepid fractions, and will probably have to deal with a more taxing pace scenario in the Derby than what she’s used to. Judging by the quick fractions she set in her recent work at Churchill, her connections want don’t want her too far off the front end – she could end up being in the first flight.

Value: Because she’s a sharp filly who has gotten plenty of media attention, she figures to be overbet in a race that has yielded just three female winners. She should be considered fair value only at more than 20-1.


GAYEGO
Strengths: His combination of speed, versatility, and gameness reminds one of Hard Spun, who had much to like at distances up to nine furlongs. Gayego passed the dirt test with flying colors in the Arkansas Derby, and he worked very well over the Churchill surface while suggesting that a wet track won’t diminish his chances. His underappreciated connections are rock-solid, and he is in sharp and improving form.

Weaknesses: His pedigree doesn’t really support the 10-furlong distance, as juvenile champion Gilded Time was a middle-distance horse at most, and he has proven to be a middle distance sire at most. His damsire won the Preakness, but mom was untried beyond 1 1/16 miles. She did win at that distance, though, and her Tomlinson number for 1 1/4 miles was an impressive 421.

Strategy: He has terrific tactical speed, and jockey Mike Smith figures to make good use of that asset by sitting just off the leader if the pace is honest. If the fractions are very fast, he’ll be just as happy five or six lengths back, and if it is unexpectedly slow he can show the way. It’s great to have a heady veteran making the decisions.

Value: The odds may not drift high enough to overcome doubts about his distance ability, and that makes him a tough sell on the win end. He is too tough to completely fall apart through the stretch, though, so we’ll include him in all of the exotics.


MONBA
Strengths: Versatility is very important in a 20-horse field, and Monba appears to be capable of either stalking or making a late move from well off the pace. You have to love his pedigree for the distance. Maria’s Mon sired the 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, and Monba’s damsire, Easy Goer, won the Belmont. Monba also appears to be comfortable on both Polytrack and dirt, as demonstrated by his win at Churchill Downs last year. His connections are rock solid, plus trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Ramon Dominguez teamed up to finish second with Bluegrass Cat at 30-1 in the 2006 Derby.

Weaknesses: It’s easy to see him bouncing off of his hard-fought win in the Blue Grass and his career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 92 comes up a bit light compared to some of the heavy hitters. He has had only two starts this year, and it had to set him back a little when he was injured in the Fountain of Youth.

Strategy: The pace figures to be lively, and you can expect Dominguez to try and let him settle mid-pack before making a bid approaching the quarter pole. In the unlikely event they aren’t going too fast up front, Dominguez has the option of putting him in the race a little earlier.

Value: There is a good chance he will move forward off of his strong performance in the Blue Grass, but maybe not enough to key on top. He will be prominent in all exotic tickets, and considering that the price will be generous, there will be a couple of small savers with him on top.


PYRO
Strengths: Churchill Downs debut graduate Pyro has proven he’s one of the best of his generation. He was a triple-digit Beyer-Figure runner-up to then-undefeated champion War Pass in both the Grade 1 Champagne and BC Juvenile. A son of Grade winner Pulpit, he overcame slow paces to win two graded Louisiana stakes, so he could still rally strongly if the fractions aren’t quick. He has known no rider except Shaun Bridgmohan and is handled by perennial top trainer Steve Asmussen, fresh off top-three finishes with Horse of the Year Curlin in the 2007 Triple Crown. Polytrack could be a valid excuse for his Blue Grass flop, the first off-the-board finish of his career.

Weaknesses: No trainer wants his horse entering the Derby off his worst performance, but that’s what Asmussen faces after Pyro’s 10th-place finish in the Blue Grass. Pyro lacks a nine-furlong victory and has yet to return to the Beyer heights he reached as a juvenile. This trainer/jockey combo wound up 12th with Zanjero in last year’s Derby and 15th with Private Vow in 2006.

Strategy: Pyro is likely to drop back 10 or 12 lengths off the pace under Bridgmohan before attempting to launch his patented late bid. Like all closers, especially in a 20-horse field, Pyro needs racing luck but should be moving well in the stretch if on his A game.

Value: To the dismay of those holding future pool tickets at 5-1 or less, Pyro should go be 6-1 or slightly higher. The emergence of Big Brown, and to a lesser degree Colonel John, likely relegates him to third choice. Believers in the rebound-minded late-runner will gladly take a swing at that price.



Recapturetheglory
Strengths: He ran the race of his life in capturing the Illinois Derby, but he was aided by a great rail, an outstanding ride, and even fractions. His greatest strengths may be that he ran an excellent race over the Churchill Downs surface as a juvenile and that he has shown more than one style of running. Recent breezes at Louisville are steady also.

Weaknesses: He has only the one graded stakes attempt to his name, and it is most unlikely he will be able to set or press a similar pace as was the case at Hawthorne. When forced to rate, which seems inevitable in this year’s Derby, it is doubtful that he can equal or surpass that Illinois Derby Beyer Speed Figure of 102.

Strategy: Recapturetheglory may have to deal with much swifter internal fractions on Derby Day, and that might put him at a huge disadvantage. As a result, the rider must avoid moving too early and yet, if he finds himself too far off the pacesetting brigade, he will be taking his horse out of his preferred running style.

Value: Even though he is one of the few horses in the field to crack the 100 Beyer mark, a lot of bettors will downplay Recapturetheglory’s last score because of the rail advantage he enjoyed throughout. As a result, he will be a healthy price once again. On the plus side, his experience over the Churchill surface is one of the more underrated factors in handicapping the Derby, something that cannot be underestimated. He is, therefore, worth minor use at the bottom of your exotic plans.

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Smooth Air
Strengths: He is coming off his best effort yet in terms of Beyer Speed Figures, closing for the place in the Florida Derby behind Kentucky Derby favorite Big Brown. He’s in line for a career-top figure if he moves forward here, and that would put him in the hunt as far as Beyers go. Running style should suit, as the pace is likely to be quick, and if he gets a clean trip he should be picking up horses late.

Weaknesses: A slight fever the week of a race is more than a slight concern, much more so when the race is the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Bennie Stutts Jr. has been very cautious with this colt, and he wouldn’t be in the race if Stutts felt the horse was compromised. But given the fact that he would need to run the race of his life to win, this it’s certainly a concern if he’s not at his best. His best Beyer came in his last race, the Florida Derby, but he was still five lengths behind Big Brown in that one despite a fast pace up front. He’ll need to run even faster here, and though there’s speed in the race, the fractions don’t figure to be much quicker than what he got there. Two of his three wins have come over wet tracks; over dry strips, he has 1 win in 5 starts. Also, he’s winless in two starts going two turns.

Strategy: He’ll take back off the pace and hope for quick fractions and a clean trip. If he has any run, he’ll look to make use of it into the final turn.

Value: He looms a big price and is worth using in exotics, as he’s an exacta threat if there’s a pace meltdown.


Tale of Ekati
Strengths: He’s a Grade 1 stakes winner around two turns and his dam’s sire won the Kentucky Derby back in 1989. The colt resides in the Barclay Tagg barn as did 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide, so his trainer has already walked this walk successfully.

Weaknesses: He benefited from War Pass’s quick pace in the Wood Memorial and he was just able to get up through a slow final furlong in a race where no one else did much running. He’s yet to reach the Beyer Speed Figure zenith he established as a juvenile and just has not run that fast in his two starts this year. While he picks up the services of jockey Eibar Coa who has won twice on him, Edgar Prado, who had the mount in the Wood Memorial, chooses to ride elsewhere. With just two preps under his belt, the Kentucky Derby comes up rather quickly.

Strategy: His style is to sit within striking range of the leaders early, and given a clean break, he should be able to do just that here. If that type of trip does present itself, he will have every chance to prove he’s good enough to win the Kentucky Derby.

Value: While he was a mild surprise at 8-1 in the Wood Memorial, he figures to be roughly twice that price Saturday. For those who believe he’s a true Grade 1 talent, the price will suffice, and maybe he’s up to the big move forward he’ll need to win this. But given his true chances of winning, he probably won’t offer a lot of value for the wagering dollar.



Visionaire
Strengths: The trainer scored here with Barbaro. Visionaire appears to have no distance limitations based on his late-running style. He rallied from last in the Blue Grass to pass more than half the field and appeared to be screaming out for more distance. He raced too close to the pace when finishing evenly behind Pyro and Z Fortune in the Risen Star, but reverted back to his late-closing style when scoring his Gotham photo victory, posting a new Beyer Speed Figure top over a sloppy track. He is about the only one hoping for rainy skies and a less than fast track on Derby Day.

Weaknesses: Not sure what to make of this year’s edition of the Blue Grass, since so many horses just did not run their race. He rallied 10-wide from post 12 in that event. His Risen Star effort, finishing third behind Pyro and Z Fortune leads us to believe he is a ranked a notch below that group and meets a whole new set of shooters Saturday. He could get shuffled back and need traffic help being a deep closer in a 20-horse field.

Strategy: Regular rider Jose Lezcano has ridden him four straight times, so he knows him well. He obviously prefers to settle from far back and make one huge run. sometimes that works in the Derby, especially if there’s a pace meltdown, but clearly he will need a favorable trip with things breaking the right way after rallying from so far back.

Value: Has never been under 4-1 odds and was not a highly-bet commodity in the Blue Grass. He should be 30-1 odds or more on a fast track; wet-track 98 Beyer is the best in the field and soars his betting value and exotics chances if the track comes up wet.



Z FORTUNE
Strengths: He ran a personal best Beyer Speed Figure in the last placing in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, a strong effort considering the extra-wide path and post involved. This was a strikingly similar try to the one in the Grade 3 Risen Star when he was a close second to the well-regarded Pyro. The gray is peaking at the right time, however, and has one of the most successful trainers in the game in his corner.

Weaknesses: He has yet to compete at the Grade 1 level, a definite knock, and his recent workout pattern over the Churchill Downs surface has been modest so far (although Monday’s breeze was done effortlessly). Despite showing some gate speed early in his career, he is a confirmed midpack stylist and may be a victim of an ordinary pace in this year’s Derby. Unless he draws a much more favorable post position than in recent starts, he may have too much work to do.

Strategy: Predicting the pace in this year’s Derby is no easy task, but Z Fortune cannot afford to drop too far back off the early leaders. If he does, he might find himself in a logjam of runners, waiting for the turn for home. The middle move must be timed perfectly in order for him to pull off the upset.

Value: Z Fortune will likely go to post at the highest odds of his career, although it is unsure how the betting public will react to his latest, and vastly improved, speed figure. It is a curious thing how few of the runners in this massive field have reached the triple-digit Beyer plateau. With only one non-exacta finish to his name, Z Fortune is recommended for the superfecta frame.


Z HUMOR
Strengths: He was awarded a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while dead-heating for the win after pressing a sizzling pace in the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot. He’s earned improving Beyers this year and could be poised for a peak effort. He’s by the sire of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide and out of an A.P. Indy mare.

Weaknesses: He was rank on the first turn in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby and then switched to his left lead nearing the sixteenth pole, before ending up third after an ideal stalking trip. His best race was in the Delta Jackpot, but the opposition was weak – the co-winner, Turf War, finished up the track in each of his next three starts, and the third runner also came back to disappoint.

Strategy: He must rate kindly, if he’s going to have any chance traveling this far, and his rider might be wise to try to get him covered up well before they reach the first turn. The huge, noisy crowd probably won’t be to his benefit.

Value: At 70-1 or higher, he might be worth a flyer, but the fourth slot in the superfecta is about all that he has a realistic chance of attaining.

[longnex]

Kentucky Derby Horse-by-Horse Capsules

1. Cool Coal Man Jockey: Julien Leparoux Trainer: Nick Zito Odds: 20-1

After a surprising win in the Fountain of Youth, he tired in the stretch in finishing ninth in the Blue Grass; has four wins and second in eight career starts; could be one of the pacesetters. Zito has Derby wins with Strike the Gold (1991) and Go For Gin (1994).

2. Tale of Ekati Jockey: Eibar Coa Trainer: Barclay Tagg Odds: 15-1

Ran down one-time Derby contender War Pass in the final yards en route to winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5; in two prior races to that big effort, was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and sixth in the Louisiana Derby; has three wins and a second in six career starts.


3. Anak Nakal Jockey: Raphael Bejarano Trainer: Nick Zito Odds: 30-1

Would be surprised to see anything out of this colt; has been fifth, seventh and eighth in his last three starts; has not won since capturing the Kentucky Jockey Gold Cup on November 24, 2007; while he has struggled, Anak Nakal does have a strong pedigree; his sire, Victory Gallop, finished second in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before foiling the Triple Crown bid of Real Quiet in 1998.

4. Court Vision Jockey: Garrett Gomez Trainer: Bill Mott Odds: 20-1

Has been a model of consistency, hitting the board in each of his six starts with three wins, one second and two thirds; came from way back to finish third in last start in the Wood Memorial; Court Vision is by Gulch, whose most memorable performance may have been his closing victory in the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs that ensured him the title of champion sprinter that year.

5. Eight Belles Jockey: Gabriel Saez Trainer: Larry Jones Odds: 15-1

Comes to Churchill Downs in the midst of a four-race winning streak; however, the competition this filly has faced is extremely questionable; heavily raced, with five wins, two seconds and a third in nine career starts; has shown the ability to handle two turns.

6. Z Fortune Jockey: Robby Albarado Trainer: Steve Asmussen Odds: 15-1

Endured a rough trip when he was wide throughout but made a run in the stretch to finish second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby; has three wins and two seconds in six career starts; could surprise here with the right trip.

7. Big Truck Jockey: Javier Castellano Trainer: Barclay Tagg Odds: 50-1

Never a factor in finishing 11th in the Blue Grass; won the Tampa Derby in March; has three wins, one second and one third in eight career starts; distance may be a problem; Street Sense won from post seven last year.

8. Visionaire Jockey: Jose Lezcano Trainer: Michael Matz Odds: 20-1

Started poorly en route to finishing fifth in the Blue Grass; in his previous race, rallied in the stretch to win the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct; has three wins, one second and one third in six career starts; pedigree suggests he could struggle at this distance; Matz won the 2006 Derby with Barbaro.

9. Pyro Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan Trainer: Steve Asmussen Odds: 6-1

Started the year in impressive fashion with wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby before finishing a disappointing 10th in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 12; has three wins, two seconds and a third in seven career starts; is a son of Pulpit, the 1997 Blue Grass winner who led the Kentucky Derby before fading to finish fourth behind Silver Charm.

10. Colonel John Jockey: Corey Nakatani Trainer: Eoin Harty Odds: 4-1

Rallied in the stretch to win Santa Anita Derby in final prep of April 5; also got up late to win the Sham Stakes on March 1; has four wins and two seconds in six career starts; boasts strong pedigree for 1 1/2 miles; his sire Tiznow was a 3-year-old champion and the 2000 Horse of the Year.

11. Z Humor Jockey: Rene Douglas Trainer: Bill Mott Odds: 30-1

Hard to imagine much from this colt; did hit the board when he finished third in the Illinois Derby on April 5, but was fourth at the Fountain of Youth Stakes and fifth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in his two prior races; also was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in October; has two wins and three thirds in eight career starts.

12. Smooth Air Jockey: Manoel Cruz Trainer: Bennie Stutts Jr. Odds: 20-1

Never was factor but was running late as he finished second in the Florida Derby, well back to Big Brown; has been consistent, hitting the board in all seven career starts with three wins, two seconds and two thirds; pedigree shows that he is not bred for 1 1/4 miles.

13. Bob Black Jack Jockey: Richard Migliore Trainer: James Kasparoff Odds: 20-1

Was the near the front from the outset before being caught by Colonel John in the final yards of the Santa Anita Derby; has hit the board in six of seven career starts, with three wins, two seconds and a third; distance should not be a problem.

14. Monba Jockey: Ramon Dominguez Trainer: Todd Pletcher Odds: 15-1

After finishing 12th in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Monba pulled a major surprise by edging Cowboy Cal to win the Blue Grass Stakes; has three wins in five career starts; is bred to handle 1 1/4 miles. Monba is sired by Maria’s Mon, the champion 2-year-old colt of 1995 who captured the 1 1/16-mile Champagne, but missed starts in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the following year’s Triple Crown due to injury; Pletcher is 0-for-19 in his career in the Kentucky Derby; failed to hit the board with any of his five starters last year; Dominguez was second in the 2006 Derby aboard Bluegrass Cat.

15. Adriano Jockey: Edgar Prado Trainer: Graham Motion Odds: 30-1

Has not raced since winning the Lane’s End by 2 1/2 lengths on March 22; has three wins and a second in seven career starts; is by two-time leading sire A.P. Indy, a son of legendary Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew who hails from the terrific Secretariat mare Weekend Surprise; Prado won the 2006 Derby aboard Barbaro.

16. Denis of Cork Jockey: Calvin Borel Trainer: David Carroll Odds: 20-1

Started his career with three straight wins; never was a factor in finishing fifth in the Illinois Derby in his last start; owns a strong pedigree to handle this distance; Borel will try to make it consecutive Derby triumphs after winning last year aboard Street Sense.

17. Cowboy Cal Jockey: John Velazquez Trainer: Todd Pletcher Odds: 20-1

Set a slow pace in the Blue Grass, then held gamely in finishing second to Monba; owns three wins and two seconds in six career starts; is by Giant’s Causeway, who was nicknamed the “Iron Horse” after he won five Group 1 races in England and Ireland within a time period of 10 weeks in the summer of 2000.

18. Recapturetheglory Jockey: E.T. Baird Trainer: Louie J. Roussel III Odds: 20-1

Pulled off a surprise with a comfortable four-length victory in the Illinois Derby on April 5; has two wins, a second and two thirds in six career starts; likely to show some early speed.

19. Gayego Jockey: Mike Smith Trainer: Paul Lobo Odds: 15-1

Solidified his credentials as a legitimate contender at Churchill Downs by winning the Arkansas Derby on April 12; was racing on a dirt track for the first time after running on Santa Anita’s synthetic surface in his previous three races; winning the Arkansas Derby also has proved a good omen; some past winners include 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin, Afleet Alex (2005 Preakness and Belmont winner) and Smarty Jones (2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner); has three wins and two seconds in five career starts; Smith won the 2005 Kentucky Derby aboard 50-1 long shot Giacomo.

20. Big Brown Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Trainer: Richard Dutrow Jr. Odds: 3-1

Should go off as the favorite; is 3-for-3 in his career, winning by a combined 29 lengths; starting from the far outside No. 12 post proved no obstacle, as he won the Florida Derby by five lengths on March 29; no horse from the 11th or 12th post had won a 1 1/8-race since Gulfstream was reconfigured four years ago; Desormeaux won the 2003 Kentucky Derby aboard Fusaichi Pegasus.

[kbsooner21]

Great info Nex! Thanks buddy