Breaking Down the 2008 Kentucky Derby

[weazel079]

• Only 4 winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1940 have had a dosage index above 4.0 The Dosage Index (DI) is a mathematical figure used to rate a horse's capability to run successfully at various distances. Giacamo was the last horse to win with a dosage index of 4.33. (Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Recapturethegloyr all have (DI) over 4)
  
• No horse has captured the Kentucky Derby without an April prep race in the last 20+ years. (Smooth Air, Adriano, Big Brown)
  
• An unraced two year old hasn't won the derby since 1882 (none qualify)
  
• Only one horse ever has won derby with fewer than three starts as a 3-year old, and that was last years winner Stree Sense. (Tale of Ekati, Court Vistion, Colonel John, Monba, Recapturetheglory, Big Brown)
  
• 43/46 (93%) WON OR FINISHED 2ND/3RD IN FINAL PREP RACE - Horses who don't qualify (Cool Coal Man, Anak Nakal, Big Truck, Visionaire, Pyro, Denis of Cork)
  
• 38/46 (82%) of Kentucky Derby winners final prep races were the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Lexington, and Florida Derby. Horses which don't qualify (Eight Belles, Z Humor, Adriano, Denis of Cork, RecapturetheGlory)
  
• 1 winner since 1956 (2%) had days since last race (DSLR) greater than 28 days. Only winner was Barbaro, the only Florida Derby winner. (Smooth Air, Adriano, Big Brown)
  
• 28 of the last 29 winners (97%) had a win as a 2 year old in a race equal to or longer than 8 furlongs (1 mile). Don't qualify (Tale of Ekati, Big Truck, Pyro, Smooth Air, Bob Black Jack, Denis of Cork, Gayego)
• 11 of the last 12 winners (92%) showed a last furlong race time equal to or less than :13 seconds in their 9 furlong prep race. Don't qualify (Don't have the figures if someone could help out)
  
• Only 3 of the last 74 winners (4%) have gone into the Derby with less than 6 career starts. (Monba, Denis of Cork, Gayego, Big Brown)
  
• Only 3 of the last 70 winners (4.3%) had less than 3 starts as a 3 year old. (Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, Colonel John, Monba, Recapturetheglory, Big Brown)
  
• 24 of the last 31 winners (77%) had a stakes win as a 3 year old. Horses that don't qualify (Anak Nakal, Court Vision, Z Humor)
  
• 20 of the last 31 (65%) winners had between 3 to 7 starts as a 2 year old. Don't (Z Fortune, Visionaire, Denis of Cork, Gayego, Big Brown)

[kbsooner21]

Great info Weazel! Thanks! Helps a ton for a horse rookie like myself

[weazel079]

I see I duplicated one of the trends.

[NEJAKE]

Interesting, thanks weaze!!

[weazel079]

Here's how they rank in order of strikes against them

17 Cowboy Cal 0
1 Cool Coal Man 1
5 Eight Belles 1
6 Z Fortune 1
10 Colonel John 1
2 Tale of Ekati 2
3 Anak Nakal 2
4 Court Vision 2
7 Big Truck 2
8 Visionaire 2
9 Pyro 2
11 Z Humor 2
13 Bob Black Jack 2
14 Monba 2
12 Smooth Air 3
15 Adriano 3
18 RecapturetheGlory 3
19 Gayego 4
16 Denis of Cork 5
20 Big Brown 5

[weazel079]

These are percentages of Derby winners based on Post Position. Cleary a post of 1-10 is favorable.

KENTUCKY DERBY
POSTS WIN%
---------------
1 - 5 47.2%
6 - 10 33.3%
11 - 15 13.9%
16 - 20 5.6%
--------------
1 - 10 80.5%
11 - 20 19.5%

[weazel079]

Looking at these stats my top 3 would be Cowboy Cal, Z Fortune, and Colonel John.

Cowboy Cal is a speed horse so it has a chance if it breaks cleanly from the outside. Big Brown also is a frontrunner so a good jump out of the gate is crucial. Basically if a horse is a closer or don't break cleanly from the outside its screwed. Too much ground loss and traffic problems.

[ULikeApples]

These are percentages of Derby winners based on Post Position. Cleary a post of 1-10 is favorable.

KENTUCKY DERBY
POSTS WIN%
---------------
1 - 5 47.2%
6 - 10 33.3%
11 - 15 13.9%
16 - 20 5.6%
--------------
1 - 10 80.5%
11 - 20 19.5%

Remember though, part of the reason the numbers go down as you go from the rail is b/c of the outside post positions have been used far, far less too (i.e. every race had a #1 but not many a #20).

Good luck!

[kbsooner21]

Remember though, part of the reason the numbers go down as you go from the rail is b/c of the outside post positions have been used far, far less too (i.e. every race had a #1 but not many a #20).

Good luck!

How many years has there been a 20 horse field? Is 20 horses mandatory?

[meaiken]

How many years has there been a 20 horse field? Is 20 horses mandatory?

This is the 4th year in a row.

The past 10 years have brought 18 or more except in 1998 (15) and 1997 (13)

I got tired of looking for the least

[meaiken]

I like Cowboy Cal before seeing this, I just don't like that he's speed and closers and stalkers win the derby.

[insidethe8thpol]

This is a very brief & I mean very brief look at Big Brown. He has run 3 races and in all 3, he has been gunned to the lead never to look back. He is coming from the 20th post. Which means if he wants the lead, he is going to have to run for it & run for it fast to clear all 19 horses. That is some serious energy spent just to get the lead running a mile and a quarter race. There is probably 5-6 looking for that lead and I just dont see it in him. Its just my early opinion. What do you guys think?

[meaiken]

This is a very brief & I mean very brief look at Big Brown. He has run 3 races and in all 3, he has been gunned to the lead never to look back. He is coming from the 20th post. Which means if he wants the lead, he is going to have to run for it & run for it fast to clear all 19 horses. That is some serious energy spent just to get the lead running a mile and a quarter race. There is probably 5-6 looking for that lead and I just dont see it in him. Its just my early opinion. What do you guys think?

I agree, Big Brown will not be on top of any of my tickets. If he takes the lead someone will close on him. He is very lightly raced and has never seen the ass end of another horse. What's gonna happen when he get's dirt kicked up into his face? Nothing good.

Pyro is gonna close. Go back and look at how he handeled the Risen Star. He checked up twice in the streatch and still won going away. I just don't think 7-1 is gonna hold.

[insidethe8thpol]

I agree, Big Brown will not be on top of any of my tickets. If he takes the lead someone will close on him. He is very lightly raced and has never seen the ass end of another horse. What's gonna happen when he get's dirt kicked up into his face? Nothing good.

Pyro is gonna close. Go back and look at how he handeled the Risen Star. He checked up twice in the streatch and still won going away. I just don't think 7-1 is gonna hold.

He is going to close, but what I am thinking is that there are 9 more horses now than in that race; will he sit that far back and get a dream opening like Street Sense last year? Traffic is going to be in his way. In that race, he chased down a 49 1/2 sec. half mile in which alot of those horses on the front tired out. He won in 1:44 and change for the mile & 1/16 & the LA Derby in around the same time & distance. The filly 8 Belles has won 2 at the same distance in 1:43. Its going to be fun

[meaiken]

The onlything I know is that BB is not gonna be on top of any tickets. I don't even want to put him in the top 2 in my trifecta/super, but I got to.

8 Belles is underneath, just don't know if I am gonna create a ticket with her on top or if I will just flat bet her to cover my ass.

I don't think Pyro is gonna need a "PERFECT" trip to win. I think the pace will be fast, almost to fast. If BB runs to get the lead 3 other horses may go with him and will all burn out.

The Gomez horse is scarey also.

This derby will be interesting. I just hope pyro doesn't drop to big in odds.