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Well only three winners yesterday. For those few of you that have looked at my picks for a while, my capping at Belmont on dirt tends to favor front end speed, and on turf deep closers, and on dirt speed faded yesterday, and on turf deep closer not so great. I also tend to heavily bias the rail, and a few winners yesterday were 4 wide all around. So looking at the card a little differently today, and will give some thoughts to those who may want to play it differently. All picks are WPS (listed next to race), then a best guess on bottom how it will play out.
Race 1 #7
The #6 is the class of the race, but the connections have performed poorly this meet at Belmont (still a nice play with price for exotics). I look for the #5 and #1 to take the early lead. The #2 should be in the mix, but not sure with limited works off 160+ days since last race. Jara is an upgrade on the #4. I think the #7 runs the best late here and picks up the pieces of the early speed.
7/5/6/4/2
Race 2 #2
The Pletcher entry looks strong with only one going if it stays on Turf. Pletcher does well on moves to Turf. But Mott also does well with first timers on Turf. Wide open race.
2/1/6
Race 3 PASS
Unbetable. Best idea 5/4/2
Race 4 #3
Would have taken the #6 here with the rider upgrade to Coa, but don't see enough work for a horse coming off 250 + days. The #3 is vulnerable and as I said earlier is a deep closer, but I do not see alot of pace in this race, the #5 and #4 should take the early lead, but doubt it will hold.
3/6/5/9
Race 5 #8
Normally here I would jump on the #6, early speed with Gomez, but the way it has been playing the #6, #4 and #2 will burn each other out. The #5 and the #8 should be the benefit of this. The #5 is probably the right play with amazing connections here, but the #8 gets a jockey upgrade and has SPARK in it's name.
8/5/6/4
Race 6 #2
A tough race. I could make a case for the 7/6/8/1 all in here to win it. The pace in this one should be hot. So throw out some early speed and some deep closers and I look at one horse that given the right ground saving trip on the rail, by one of the best in my book Prado.
2/7/6/1
Race 7 #4
I love the #2, but those connections are not getting it done here at Belmont. The uncoupled Contessa entry (#3 and #9) will be going at it early, normally I take the #3 on what I have it best numbers overall, or the #9 on best last. But here I am again playing against myself and taking the #4 to come off the pace.
4/3/9/2/1
Race 8 #5 and #6
Strictly a horse for the course play, last fall took the Bongard stakes here. I will also throw a little on #6, at those odds with some strong early speed, may run away and hide from these.
5/4/1
Race 9 #2
The #8 would normally be my play here with speed and a bullet half mile work, but short price and trainer meet record takes me off. I like the #4 and #7, but the #1 has already beaten these, and the #4 gets Desormeaux and the #7 gets Martin, neither of which I care for.
2/4/1/8/7/6
Race 1 #7
The #6 is the class of the race, but the connections have performed poorly this meet at Belmont (still a nice play with price for exotics). I look for the #5 and #1 to take the early lead. The #2 should be in the mix, but not sure with limited works off 160+ days since last race. Jara is an upgrade on the #4. I think the #7 runs the best late here and picks up the pieces of the early speed.
7/5/6/4/2
Race 2 #2
The Pletcher entry looks strong with only one going if it stays on Turf. Pletcher does well on moves to Turf. But Mott also does well with first timers on Turf. Wide open race.
2/1/6
Race 3 PASS
Unbetable. Best idea 5/4/2
Race 4 #3
Would have taken the #6 here with the rider upgrade to Coa, but don't see enough work for a horse coming off 250 + days. The #3 is vulnerable and as I said earlier is a deep closer, but I do not see alot of pace in this race, the #5 and #4 should take the early lead, but doubt it will hold.
3/6/5/9
Race 5 #8
Normally here I would jump on the #6, early speed with Gomez, but the way it has been playing the #6, #4 and #2 will burn each other out. The #5 and the #8 should be the benefit of this. The #5 is probably the right play with amazing connections here, but the #8 gets a jockey upgrade and has SPARK in it's name.
8/5/6/4
Race 6 #2
A tough race. I could make a case for the 7/6/8/1 all in here to win it. The pace in this one should be hot. So throw out some early speed and some deep closers and I look at one horse that given the right ground saving trip on the rail, by one of the best in my book Prado.
2/7/6/1
Race 7 #4
I love the #2, but those connections are not getting it done here at Belmont. The uncoupled Contessa entry (#3 and #9) will be going at it early, normally I take the #3 on what I have it best numbers overall, or the #9 on best last. But here I am again playing against myself and taking the #4 to come off the pace.
4/3/9/2/1
Race 8 #5 and #6
Strictly a horse for the course play, last fall took the Bongard stakes here. I will also throw a little on #6, at those odds with some strong early speed, may run away and hide from these.
5/4/1
Race 9 #2
The #8 would normally be my play here with speed and a bullet half mile work, but short price and trainer meet record takes me off. I like the #4 and #7, but the #1 has already beaten these, and the #4 gets Desormeaux and the #7 gets Martin, neither of which I care for.
2/4/1/8/7/6
PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !! 
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