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**tech fan** · 05-04-2007, 01:20 PM

Thanks Man SAYS IT CANT BE FOUND

**ChuckLazar** · 05-04-2007, 01:50 PM

For some reason this site is not letting it come up.
I have it on a PDF File and it's not letting me attach it.

I got this from GP (my trainer friend that’s coming to vegas tomorrow)
Derby handicapping is morphing in a hurry. Horses are not the same and are being trained differently.
Every day, we use history to handicap horse races. But we must be adaptable, or risk the fate of houreplayers who still refuse to play horses away from the races 21 days or more.
The Guide to Derby Rules:
The one about geldings. Forget it. With today’s wacked out stud fees, no one gelds a horse he considers a Derby contender. But if a gelding like Funny Cide beats the odds and makes it to the Derby, judge him by performance and not reproductive potential. Derby horses may run naked, but won’t suffer equipment envy.
The one about Needles’ 1956 five-week layoff. Tricky. It isn’t the layoff that matters. Five weeks is nothing. The key is the reason for the gap. For horses like Barbaro who ran in the Florida Derby, the answer is obvious. Don’t worry about it. But legitimate cause for concern are those like Circular Quary, with less-understandable schedules. Remember even straight-shooting trainers are loath to be truthful about physical problems of Derby horses.
The one about two Derby preps. Depends. One horse (Sunny’s Halo) since 1947 has won the Derby with fewer than three 3-year-old prep races. Street Sense, Great Hunter and Circular Quary fall into this category. As recent as the 1990s, horses raced with such frequency that two-prep campaigns could automatically be discounted as lost causes due to a bad wheel or serious sickness that cost training time. And that’s the real issue – training time, not prep schedule. To combat the fragility of today’s racehorses, trainers are gradually trending toward a less-is-more approach to preps. But bringing a horse to 10 furlongs the first Saturday in May requires a demanding regimen, and a combination of fewer preps and missed training time spells trouble.
Even today, when a trainer announces a two-prep schedule, 75 percent of the time the reason is physical. Be skeptical, but if you conclude that your horse falls into the other 25%, plunge ahead.
The one about Apollo. Rooted in common sense. Every Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 raced as a 2-year-old. All owners prefer to run horses as juveniles at least once or twice, so January first-timers normally have been beset with ailments. Plus, they are behind others in conditioning. Even if sheer talent takes them to the Big Show, they are disadvantaged. It isn’t seasoning. Seasoning is for steaks. Again, it’s training time.
The one about Wyoming-breds prepping in Arizona. It’s the individual horse, not birthplace or prep route. If Matz had decided on the WinStar Derby six weeks out as a final prep, do you really think Barbaro would have lost the Kentucky Derby? Keep this in mind the next time Godolphin has another Dubai Millennium.
The one about Todd Pletcher. At one point, Wayne Lukas couldn’t win the Derby. He currently has four trophies. Now Pletcher supposedly can’t win it. A decade from now, he’ll own three and possibly more.
With a more open-minded approach, you can focus on finding the best horse. The Derby is a horse race, not a Magical Mystery Tour. But one rule hasn’t changed: the Kentucky Derby is the most difficult sporting event in the world to predict. And the fewer times the horses run, the tougher it gets.

A bunch of this applies to almost every sport you bet, so try not to have an pre existing "opinion" let the numbers and data be your guide and may the force be with you

**BigWeiner** · 05-04-2007, 02:15 PM

Thanks for the info Chuck, I honestly think the Kentucky Derby is too tough to call. 20 horses is just ridiculous, anything can happen. With that said I did place a bet on Nobiz, just to make it interesting.

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