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**BillMill71** · 05-01-2007, 07:18 PM

Gris, what is it that you see in Circular Quay? I just can't see anything other then his last out and change to Velazquez that would draw me to put him on top? Too much of a layoff, was not great in the BCJuv?

**uconnplayer** · 05-02-2007, 12:14 AM

gris man I like circular quay, i also slightly like your others, good luck my man, its gonna be a great race!

**BillMill71** · 05-02-2007, 09:14 AM

A good Chat from DRF with A Beyer last night

DRF_Moderator:
Welcome to tonight's Kentucky Derby chat with Andrew Beyer!

Slewhand:
Q: Can you give us your opinion on the relative strengths / ratings of various Derby preps the Wood, Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Lanes End, Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, etc and describe which might provide this years best stepping stone to the Kentucky Derby.

Andy_Beyer:

They were almost equally mediocre. Most of the winning figures were in the high 90s or low 100s. The Blue Grass of course was an aberration because of the Polytrack and the absurdly slow pace.

boboo:
Q: Is Curlin a false favorite? or is he a super-freak?

Andy_Beyer:
That will be the subject of my column in Thursday's Post/Friday's DRF. I think he'll be a false favorite. We know that he doesn't have the necessary seasoning, and I believe in all of those historical yardsticks that a lot of people dismiss. I would be more hesitant to take a stand against him if he'd run a giant figure in the Arkansas Derby, but his 103 doesn't give him enough of an edge to suggest he can overcome that lack of experience.

3Dee:
Q: Does Scat Daddy's lack of a triple fig. Beyer concern you?

Andy_Beyer:
Yes it does. And the same can be said for Nobiz. If these were the old days, before people had reference to speed figures, you'd look at these horses' records and say they look great; they've won the big stakes at both 2 and 3. But figures in the high 90s don't usually make you a bonafide Derby contender.

Bob_from_Calif:
Q: Andy, I would love to know your thoughts on Any Given Saturday. Personally I feel he has the breeding, trainer, Jockey, positional speed and class to be right there. Of course anything can happen so I will be playing him to Great Hunter, Street Sense.

Andy_Beyer:
His race against Street Sense was very good, and makes him a solid contender, in my book. I'm going to be a little hesitant about playing any of the Pletchers, though, because of his mediocre record in the Derby.

Winooski_Tip:
Q: Many people like Tiago...however, he finished the last f in :13...your thoughts? I think he may be a underlay...

Andy_Beyer:
I can't like any horse related to Giacomo. Also, the history books are very much against any horse with only 4 career starts.

CHICKENDINNER:
Q: Do you think there are any health concerns with Circular Quay? An eight week layoff seems out of the ordinary for an upper echelon type horse on the Derby trail.

Andy_Beyer:
Pletcher says this is what he wants to do, and though I'm usually skeptical of trainers' comments in situations like this, I believe him. He says he prefers to give horses plenty of time between races as a general rule, so he's doing it here. My feeling is that Pletcher is searching for the right style of preparation to win the Derby (just as his mentor Wayne Lukas searched.) With five horses in the field this year, he can afford to try something wildly unorthodox with one of them.

Mr__E:
Q: I'm probably going to play against the deep closers Dominican and Zanjero. Their speed figs worry me and I don't think the pace will be hot enough for them to knock off horses like Giacomo did two years ago. What are your thoughts on these two?

Andy_Beyer:
Zanjero is too weak, figure-wise--with a lifetime best of 93. Dominican--I don't know. He looks like a Polytrack specialist, but he did outkick Street Sense in the final yards of the Blue Grass. If he's a big, big price I might include him in my supers.

SJS:
Q: Andy, is Street Sense going to finally break the BCJ jinx?

Andy_Beyer:
Definitely he can. I don't really believe in this jinx. Unlike some of the other historical guidelines that are important, I think the failure of BCJ winners to win the Derby is a fluke. Plenty of horses have run well in both races--they just haven't won both. It's time for somebody to do it.

slim:
Q: Mr. Beyer, which of Pletcher's horses do you consider to have the best shot at winning the Derby this year?

Andy_Beyer:
I would rate Any Given Saturday a narrow No. 1 over Scat Daddy in the Pletcher lineup. Even though Circular Quay's win at FG was visually impressive and the fig was OK, I can't take him off that long layoff.

vjcisme:
Q: what do you think about the fast work of hard spun?

Andy_Beyer:
It doesn't make any sense to me, but neither does anything else the trainer has done this spring. I never understood all of his vacillation about running in the Derby. Hard Spun has the talent and should have been kept on a steady course to the Derby. But it's hard for me to like him with this management.

SAL:
Q: Do you think Stormello can make the distance if Kent D. can harness his speed?

Andy_Beyer:
No. It's pretty tough to harness anybody's speed the way the Derby is usually run.

AtomSmasher:
Q: Andy, how much importance do you give the Derby horses most recent Beyers? In '99 the best last Beyers ran 1-2 and the EX paid almost $800.

Andy_Beyer:
I keep telling myself I should be more slavish to them--I still can't believe that I overlooked War Emblem when he won with the top fig at 20 to 1. In the last decade we've seen how important the figures are in the Derby. Horses coming into the race off a fig of 108+ have done tremendously well, and often get overlooked at the windows. But this year I can't touch the best last-race fig, because it belongs to Curlin.

bigshu:
Q: Will you be using Cowtown Cat in the exotics?

Andy_Beyer:
Only if I can find a trifecta on the last three finishers. He is my number-one hate in the race. When he won the Illinois Derby, he got the lead in a moderate pace on a strongly rail-favoring track at Hawthorne. The time before that he gook advantage of a similar inside bias on the inner dirt at Aqueduct. He's a bum.

Jimmy_California:
Q: How should we treat speed figures for performances on the polytrack (i.e. such as from the Bluegrass)?

dreamer:
Q: Can Great Hunter win without an exceptionally fast pace and at what odds would you consider him a good value play?

Andy_Beyer:
I'm not sure what to make of him. I thought he was being outkicked when he got into that trouble at Keeneland--and he is a horse who had previously shown he likes Polytrack. His last dirt number, at Santa Anita, was good enough that you have to consider him a contender, though. I'd consider 10-1 or 12-1 the right price for him, I guess.

3Dee_2:
Q: Who do you feel will definitely not get the distance

Andy_Beyer:
I think it's pretty obvious (to everybody but the trainer) that Teuflesberg won't be able to go 1 1/4 miles. He's never passed a horse in the stretch, and he's never won beyond a mile.

clancy:
Q: does Liquidity have any chance of fininishing in the money at about 50-1 ???

Andy_Beyer:
I can't like him. I don't understand why Doug O'Neill has kept him on the Derby track after his last 2 bad races. But he does show a figure of 102 at 1 1/8 miles, so that might be a basis for throwing him in at a huge price.

LarVato:
Q: Post position will help determines this year derby with so many horses so close, which PP will be a death sentence? 17-20 or 1-3

Andy_Beyer:
All the trainers now seem to have succumbed to a mass delusion that inside posts are death and outside posts are desirable. But I'd always want my horse to have an inside post. Yes, you might get caught in traffic there, but horses breaking from the outside are assured of losing ground. Moreover, the jockeys who break from far-outside posts usually have to hustle just to get position, and sometimes that hustling doesn't help a horse--remember Point Given's trip?

Winooski_Tip:
Q: Can any justification e given to Sam P?

Andy_Beyer:
My friend Andy Serling thought he had a tough trip in his last and will be an overlay on Saturday. I don't think I agree that the trip was so notable. But like so many of the others, Sam P. has run a figure (his 99 at Santa Anita) that puts him close to everybody else.

Sir_Ralston:
Q: Last year we had Steppenwolfer & Jazil as bonafide deep closers, do we have any this year?

Andy_Beyer:
I don't think there are any horses that slow in the early going. Circular Quay has been running from far back in his recent starts, but he was quick enough to win at 5 1/2 and 6 furlongs last year.

charlie_horse:
Q: How important is the two year old foundation for derby success?

Andy_Beyer:
This is a key component in my upcoming column on Curlin. It is essential. In no other race would you be concerned about what a horse did a year earlier; but the Derby is so demanding that you can't cram sufficient preparation into a few months. It's a huge plus if a horse has won at a mile or more at 2, but at the minimum it is essential that he has raced once or twice as a 2-year-old. The stat that says nobody has won since 1882 without racing at 2 is not a fluke.

BG:
Q: FROM BG: Andy, what do you think of Nobiz Like Showbiz's chances to win the Derby?

Andy_Beyer:
Everything about him looks good except his figures. He's got the 2-year-old foundation; he's got an outstanding trainer in Barclay Tagg. But he still hasn't run a number. When Funny Cide won the Derby, you'll remember, he tipped his readiness by running a figure of 110 (as I recall) in the Wood. I was looking for something like that from Nobiz--not a 98.

Unitas:
Q: Why the seemingly widespread disrespect for Scat Daddy? His times aren't exceedingly fast, yet he continues to win...Will the distance be his achilles?

Andy_Beyer:
I don't know that he's necessarily been disrespected. His wins in Florida were OK, but he didn't blow anybody away.

the_squire:
Q: Given the sameness of this year's field speed-wise, would you say there should be more of an emphasis on pedigree/Tomlinson ratings when handicapping the Derby than in years past? If so, who do you see as the best to get the distance?

DC:
Q: You site historical reasons for lightly raced colts not winning the Derby- what about the historical rule of 3 or 4 three year old prep races ? Not 2 or 5 prep race. Street Sense,Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Stormella,Dominican have only 2 prep races like

Andy_Beyer:
Well, training styles are changing and good horsemen are giving their horses lighter and lighter preparation. Barbaro upset the rule that horse need a prep race within four weeks of the Derby. So I think it's more important to ask if a horse has sufficient overall preparation rather than whether he qualifies under a specific rule. Street Sense, Circular Quay and Greater Hunter have all certainly done enough to be fit on Saturday.

TOYMAN:
Q: Would you consider AGSs performance in the Wood as a bounce?

Andy_Beyer:
I don't really believe in" bounces" most of the time. But I'd nevertheless be willing to forgive him for that sub-par performance. I suspect that Pletcher will have him revved up to run back to the level of his Tampa Bay race.

55555:
Q: Do you think Street Sense's last race took too much out of him coming into the Derby?

Andy_Beyer:
No--he only exerted himself in the last quarter mile. The same can be said for all the other horses.

ash3sue6:
Q: can you conclude whichever jhonny velazquez opts to ride is todds best horse

Andy_Beyer:
Jockeys are so often wrong when they make these decisions that I wouldn't let his choice sway me a bit. I think it would be very hard for him, Pletcher or any handicapper to say whether Circular Quay, Scat Daddy or Any Given Saturday is the best horse.

HDembski:
Q: How bout a live Bomb in Sedgefield? We already know he can get the distance being Kin to English channel. Most recently sharpened up on turf now returns to dirt. what do you think?

Andy_Beyer:
I don't kow what he's doing in the race. He seems to be a turf specialist who can also handle Polytrack. This is a bizarre spot to be testing him on the dirt for the first time.

ctrentman:
Q: Do you think Stormello will rebound after the Florida Derby performance

Andy_Beyer:
I don't think he can rebound enough to get the 1 1/4 mile distance.

Andy_Beyer:
Thanks, everybody, for joining us tonight. My final picks will be in the Friday Wash Post and the Saturday DRF. Have a great Derby!

DRF_Moderator:
Thanks for coming to tonight's Kentucky Derby chat. A transcript of tonight's conversation with Andrew Beyer will be posted shortly. Please join us again on Wednesday, May 2, from 7:00-8:00 EST for a chat with Dan Illman.

**griswold** · 05-02-2007, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by BillMill71

Gris, what is it that you see in Circular Quay? I just can't see anything other then his last out and change to Velazquez that would draw me to put him on top? Too much of a layoff, was not great in the BCJuv?

I'm not worried about the layoff because horse racing is changing radically in this area. Last year Barbaro won on a five week layoffs, the longest in history. Plus, Pletcher is at his best with horses off this type of layoffs. In addition, this is a rather heavily raced horse so he has sufficient foundation.

He's bred to get the distance and I am impressed that Velazquez' agent, Cordero, chose Quay when they could have had any of the five Pletcher horses.

**BillMill71** · 05-02-2007, 09:34 PM

I agree about Velazquez, but still not sold on Quay, especially in that 16 hole. Thanks for the feedback.

**BillMill71** · 05-02-2007, 09:38 PM

So now we know who and where

So who are your throw outs?

Right now based upon what I have looked at to date and these posts I am thinking of totally throwing out from a top 2 finish:

1/3/4/5/10/11/15/17

That has me down to 12 horses for the top 2 spots. Any thoughts? Any of these that people feel strongly about? I will have to narrow it down further of course, but want to get any takes.

1. Sedgefield -Leparoux 50-1
2. Curlin -Albarado 7-2
3. Zanjero- Bridgmohan 30-1
4. Storm in May- Leyva 30-1
5. Imawildandcrazyguy- Guidry 50-1
6. Cowtown Cat- Jara 20-1
7. Street Sense -Borel 4-1
8. Hard Spun- Pino 15-1
9. Liquidity- Flores 30-1
10. Teuflesberg -Elliott 30-1
11. Bwana Bull -Castellano 50-1
12. Nobiz Like Shobiz -Velasquez 8-1
13. Sam P.- Dominguez 20-1
14. Scat Daddy -Prado 10-1
15. Tiago- Smith 15-1
16. Circular Quay- Velazquez 8-1
17. Stormello -Desormeaux 30-1
18. Any Given Saturday- Gomez 12-1
19. Dominican- Bejarano 20-1
20. Great Hunter- Nakatani 15-1

**WayneChung** · 05-02-2007, 10:12 PM

i know some people don't like him but curlin at 5 to 1 or higher suits me-think robby will give him a patient ride in the 2 hole !!

**wayne1218** · 05-02-2007, 10:15 PM

I will be playing 2 horses for W/P/S

12. Nobiz Like Shobiz -Velasquez 8-1
14. Scat Daddy -Prado 10-1

**longnex** · 05-02-2007, 10:20 PM

I think I will be playing the 7 and 12.

**WayneChung** · 05-02-2007, 10:31 PM

Originally posted by wayne1218

I will be playing 2 horses for W/P/S

12. Nobiz Like Shobiz -Velasquez 8-1
14. Scat Daddy -Prado 10-1

i like scat daddy also boss !!

**meaiken** · 05-03-2007, 12:15 AM

I love scat Daddy

He's gonna be my Key to win in my only super. Plus my only ATB bet.

I would not throw out Tiago, I also wouldn't throw out Stormello for underneath in the exotics.

IMHO, Closer wins

**FB Coach13** · 05-03-2007, 10:09 AM

I think Street Sense wins, and will also probably play Hard Spun,Any Given Sat,Curlin,Dominican in exactas and trifectas,also may throw a little on Bwana Bull just in case

**jcindaville** · 05-03-2007, 10:16 AM

16. Circular Quay- Velazquez 8-1
14. Scat Daddy -Prado 10-1

**Ldawg** · 05-03-2007, 11:48 AM

Spark did you ZAP my post in here ?

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