I personally feel it benefits front runners, especially from a Jockey perspective, you are running clean upfront. Most people will tell you the biggest impact to capping on a sloppy track is breeding though. If the dam/sire ran better in slop then look at that horse. The way I look at it though is a few things:
1) Breeding (mudders)
2) Running style (if you have seen the horses run, that is why following one track may give you an advantage). If the horse has a high step running style (makes them better on turf as well) versus a gliding running style they may do better in the slop
3) Outside Post speed is at a disadvantage in the slop, but overall I think front runners have an edge
4) Connections (trainers/owners) they I feel have a good idea when or when not to run a certain horse, so the successful connections who run a non favorite horse know something. Favorites by not as successful trainers so be bet over
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