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Christopher Ado’s Del Mar Handicap
Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies
Del Mar Saturday August 26, 2006
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 2, 5, 6, 9, and 10.
In addition, I will put in $36 into a Pick 4 (Races 7-10)
Race 2: Claiming $50,000 to $45,000, 6-½ Furlongs, Three year olds WILBURS MR. ED (#1, 6-1) comes into this race having won three of his previous four starts including his last three in a row since the addition of blinkers. The bay gelding first added blinkers on March 26 at Santa Anita and scored a handy victory benefiting by the runner up, Romantic Rouge, trouble at the start and strong speed bias. In that race, he dueled for the lead between Preppy Pilot and Aunt Rita’s Tom Cat as those three horses zipped through an opening quarter in 21.57 seconds. Wilbur’s Mr. Ed dueled the latter into submission as he tired to finish eleventh and last as he and Preppy Pilot continued battling head and head for the early lead to the top of the stretch when he finally tired to finish fourth as Wilbur’s Mr. Ed opened up a two and half length lead at mid stretch and had enough left to hold off the rally of the post time favorite Romantic Rouge to win by three quarters of a length in a productive “key” race that saw the fourth and eighth place finishers (Preppy Pilot and Contrando) both returned to win.
Instead of facing Starter Allowance rivals, he immediately tacked three year old claimers for $40,000 on April 29 at Hollywood Park and won despite not being visually impressive. He was allowed to speed to the early lead through a leisurely opening quarter in 22.41 seconds as his expected pace foe, Her Red, was content to stalk him. He continued loose on an easy lead around the far turn, confronted in the stretch, and held on gamely despite drifting outwards a bit towards the wire in a sub-par effort that saw the fifth place finisher, Surging Desire, come back to win on the drop. Rather than move him in class or attempt to protect him, he returned from a two month layoff dropping one level in class off that less than average victory and returned to top form after a hard fought visually impressive dead heat victory with Double Parked. He was not allowed an easy opening quarter of a mile as he battled for the lead while parked four wide with Double Parked, Fight in the Cat, and The Missile Came are drawn inside of him dueling through a 21.85 second opening quarter. He continued four wide battling for the lead through the turn as Fight in the Cat and The Missile Came weakened from their earlier efforts to finish fifth and seventh respectively as Wilbur’s Mr. Ed and Double Parked battled head and head through the stretch in a dead head victory. The strength of his 77 Beyer Speed Figure was validated as the winner returned on July 26 to win for $32,000 earning an 84 Beyer Speed Figure. According to Daily Racing Form’s Formulator software, in the past five years trainer Ted H. West has won an amazing 35 percent of the horses he claimed in his last start and he has wisely given this gelding two months between starts and makes a confident two level jump in class as he comes into this race in very good condition according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. Jockey Tyler Baze was aboard for his August 3 work where he went five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 where he “easily handled Irish Honor holding clear while in hand late going 24 1/5, 1:01 1/5” and came back with another five furlong work in 1:00 2/5 where he “held sway over a Chatlose trainee here, never really set down in the lane, some nursing near the wire in 35 flat and 59 4/5.” The rail going six and half furlongs is NOT a disadvantage as it has won 8 of 37 this meet for a 22% success rate. He should be on near the lead from every step and prove tough customer to reel in at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (1) WILBURS MR. ED to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 3-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 1-2, 1-3, and 1-5.Small reverse for each.
Race 5: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile Turf, Three year olds
SENSATIONAL SCORE (#3, 8-1) is my co-top choice with QUEEN’S IMAGE (#7, 6-1) as the former should get a good trip just off the lead as the latter will attempt to take this field gate to wire but this Wild Rush horse is the pick. He made his debut in a very difficult and rare situation last fall at Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting. As a two year old, he debuted in a one mile race on the grass and had drawn a difficult post position eight in a nine horse field and despite all these obstacles this son of Wild Rush overcame them to post a visually impressive debut victory. Despite his disadvantageous outside post position, he was able to come over from the outside to stalk the pace without losing a lot of ground into the first turn, rallied along the inside like a professional through the far turn and into the stretch, took the lead, and began to inch away through the stretch to win by a length at 3-1 as his future turf was not a surprise as he is a half brother to G3 turf winner that earned over $300,000 on that surface. Without turf racing during the fall Hollywood Park meeting, he was force to be reeled back to quickly in only twenty days in the Pinjara Stakes and had good striking position behind two dueling leaders down the backstretch, appeared full of run as he began his rally into the stretch to put in his bid, but weakened badly to lose second through the stretch as the 3-5 post time favorite. He returned for his three year old debut on the main track on opening week of the winter Santa Anita meeting and ran better than his third place finish would suggest to eventual multiple stakes winner Wanna Runner. He was content in allowing that rival to establish an easy early lead through a 22 4/5 opening quarter and half mile in 47 1/5 seconds. He made a three wide move into the teeth of that very slow pace into the far turn and was no match versus the perfect trip gate to wire winner as he tired from that move to finish third. He was kept on the main track in his next start but had no chance in what has returned to be a productive “key” race. He was in a good position behind two dueling leaders, Bob and John and The Five J’s but was the mercy of early pace as those two walked through early splits of 48.47 and 1:13.02 seconds. He was under a hard drive leaving the backstretch and could only come in an even fifth place finish as the leaders that were first and second after the first half mile ran that way on the wire was the winner returned to win the $100,000 Sham Stakes and G1 Wood Memorial and the fourth place finisher, Old Thunder, came back to win a Allowance N1X on the grass in his next start. Those two strenuous efforts on the main track took its toll as he was not seen again on the race track for another six months.
He made his returned from that extended layoff on July 21 here at Del Mar and ran an even third like a horse that needed a race. He was in a good spot outside of Wisdom Cat sitting just behind two dueling leaders early. He moved up three wide down the backstretch and into the far turn to get into contention, made a mild move to attack the leader Greedy Way, and was even through the stretch while out run by the eventual winner Two Trails. Though beaten, it was strong indication he is back in form as he returned with three more works including working seven furlongs in 1:26 3/5 that caught the attention of National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He finished “with purpose, without visible pressure in 1:02 4/5, 1:26 3/5 (23 4/5 final quarter) with the blinkers.” Though Aaron Gryder was aboard for that work out and has opted for Queen’s Image, fine apprentice Martin Garcia replaces him and I expect a fitter horse in his second start off the brief freshening with a anticipated Queen’s Image on the lead and getting first run on favorite Falcon Scott.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (3) SENSATIONAL SCORE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Play the (7) QUEEN’S IMAGE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 3-5, 3-6, and 3-7.
Main Exactas: 7-3, 7-5, and 7-6.
Trifecta Box: 3-5-6-7
Race 6: Claiming $50,000 to $45,000, 6 Furlongs, Four year olds and upward SECRET RIDGE (#4, 8-1) is my co top choice with RUFSTHEROADRUNNER (#2, 6-1) but I strongly believe that the only thing separating both is the amount of early speed both have shown in their most recent starts and likely price as with a sixth and ninth place finish Secret Ridge could be grossly overlooked. He was forced to stalk a contested battle in the G3 Los Angeles Times Handicap in the uncomfortable position of racing between rivals and did not fire as the winner, Siren Lure, would return to win the G1 Triple Bend and G2 Pat O’ Brian in his next two starts. He stretched out to two turns for the first time on the main track on June 4 and ran better than his sixth place finish would suggest in this mid-pack effort. Breaking from the disadvantageous post position ten in a ten horse field, Secret Ridge was caught four wide sitting just off a 23.21 second opening quarter and then raced three wide through a half mile in a quick 46.34 seconds. After dueling both of his pace rivals into submission after the first half mile (tired to finish eighth and ninth), he grab the lead while contesting it now between rivals on the far turn, and continued to mid stretch before the earlier effort of contesting that fast pace while wide early resulted in him finishing sixth beaten two and half lengths in a better than looked effort earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 90 that is well within range of the typical winning Beyer to win this race (98 Beyer). I believe he had a long shot chance to score on the front end when he cut back to one turn and by an eighth of a mile on July 2 at Hollywood Park and he faded to finish ninth beaten fourteen and half lengths but that was after he had to contest one of the fastest early fractions on that card. He showed his excellent early speed to duel between a four horse battle for the lead that included Swiss Lad, Bonus Pack, and Twice as Bad. Those three horses battled through blistering early fractions of 22.16 and 44.49 seconds as Secret Ridge continued in the fight for the lead all the way to the top of the stretch where he was bumped by Cooperation at mid stretch, and retreated to finish ninth crossing the wire ahead of only two rivals. That margin of defeat is inconclusive as jockey David Flores simply wrapped up on him in the final furlong and that was no ordinary Allowance N2X. The winner, Papi Chullo, earned a off the chart 108 Beyer Speed Figure and the validity of that figure has already been confirmed as the fourth place finisher, Swiss Lad returned to win for $50,000 on July 29 here at Del Mar and the fifth place finisher, Cooperation, also came back to win. In addition, his ninth place finish was the result of that screaming early pace as the first three places finishers rallied from 8-7-11 after the first quarter of a mile. He returns off a seven week hiatus with four more works and switch to Alex Solis. The most surprising aspect of this race is the lack of plethora of early speed, Secret Ridge should be able to make the lead early, have it approaching the quarter pole, and prove a tough customer to run with early and attempt to run down late as he makes his first start in for a claiming price for capable conditioner Paulo Lobo.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (4) SECRET RIDGE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Play the (2) RUFSTHEROADRUNNER to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 2-3, 2-4, and 2-5 Main Exactas: 4-2, 4-3, and 4-5.
Exacta Box: 2-3-4
Race 9: Claiming $32,000 to $28,000, 6 Furlongs, Three year olds EVANSTON (#5, 7-2) is the shortest price of my five plays on the card and he is a deserving play as he makes his second start for King Juan Garcia. After two runner-up efforts with a fourth place finish in three races at Turf Paradise, he dropped in to face California bred company on May 13 at Hollywood Park and romped as the 5-2 favorite earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 78 that is well within par for this class level (83 Beyer) and he had to earned it. Breaking from post position eleven in a twelve horse field, this Benton Creek gelding had enough early speed to drop over from his outside post position and battle for the lead with long shot Dr. Busch as those two opened up three and half lengths on the rest of the field through a 21.48 second opening quarter. He dueled that rival right into submission as the tired to finish ninth, but this dark bay gelding cleared on the far turn, and never looked back as the validity of his speed figure was confirmed when the seventh and eighth place finishers (Melo Jazz and Mr. Thatcher) both came back to win in their next start making it a productive “key” race. I really liked his chances a lot as he worked super into this July 1 race according to Andy Harrington but did not deliver finishing a flat fourth managing to beat more than half of his field. He failed to show his early speed and he was rated to stalk the eventual runner up, Hot Tizzy, early, came under a strong push by Michael Baze on the far turn, and was simply out run in that final furlong to be fourth. The lack of early speed he shown forced trainer Jeff Mullins to add the blinkers when he was reeled back in only two weeks as dropped into a restricted claiming race for N2L on July 15 and ran a super race to be second as he was clearly the best to win the battle for the early lead only to lose the war to the opportunistic perfect trip stalking winner Lite Man. In that race, he battled inside of a three horse battle for the early lead with Lower Shore and Under House Arrest through a 21.70 second opening quarter, he dueled those two rivals into submission as they both tired to finish sixth and eighth, opened up a clear premature lead around the far turn through an enervating 44.21 second half mile and was caught in only the final sixteenth of a mile while finishing five and half lengths ahead of the third place finisher earning a Beyer Speed Figure that is par for this class level. He made his first start at this class level for new trainer Juan Garcia and lost whatever chance he had to show his speed when hampered by the break and wide trip sealed his chance. He broke slowly and was then bumped soon after to trail early, lugged out down the backstretch while force to race four wide down the backstretch, five wide through the far turn and into the stretch, and got up for second behind the perfect trip pace pressing winner. He returns to the level of his last start and has bounced back with fine half mile work on August 19 at Del Mar which Andy Harrington caught him dueling “with an eased barn mate here in 22 2/5 early moving clear under some coxed looking fine while hitting the wire along in 49 flat.” Jockey Martin Garcia has been aboard for one of Juan Garcia’s seven winners this meet and with an alert start sees him pressing Desert Smoke (drawn on the disadvantageous rail), duel that rival into submission, and kick clear as my most probable winner and BEST BET on today’s Del Mar program.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (5) EVANSTON to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 2-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 5-4, 5-7, and 5-8. Small reverse for each.
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $25,000 to $22,500, 6 Furlongs, Three and up, Fillies and mares.
AFLEET MYSTY (#9, 10-1) has never had a fair chance and with a clean break this Northern Afleet filly can show her true colors with an alert start. She made her career debut on July 13 at Hollywood Park and she lost all chance when she broke inward at the break, rushed up to stalk the pace within range early, continued wide from every step, and did not go on in an inconclusive effort as a schooling run. That race served as a good tighter as she came back on July 27 to work three furlongs in sharp fashion according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington as he caught here “in 35 flat looking smart while held up inside B L’s Dazing (36 1/5) looking quite nice in this sharp looking blow out for Cerin. Seems a lot better than last.” She dropped to this class level in her last start on August 4 here at Del Mar and once again did not have a perfect trip. She stumbled then was squeezed and force to steady when Clever Cahill came out on her, lost all early position, to lose any chance. Jockey Martin Garcia did not push on this filly after the start as she was taken in hand soon after the break in an inconclusive performance to finish seventh beaten eleven and half lengths. She came back with a super half mile work out on August 20 where National Turf’s Andy Harrington caught her working “an easy ½ mile drill with Potts up in 24 2/5, 48 3/5 moving with smoothness late. Seems to have more run than shown.” Jockey Martin Garcia has been aboard of three of Vladimir Cerin’s four wins this meet and all she needs is an alert to start to show the ability she has shown in the mornings training. Expect a box car price.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (9) AFLEET MYSTY to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 8-1 or better)
Main Exacta Box: 3-9-10
Del Mar Pick 4
Race 7: (4) Caped for Flight, (8) Marked Warrior, (10) Mystic Wood, and (13) Mr. Logan
Race 8: (2) ARAGORN
Race 9: (4) Way to Shine, (5) Evanston, (8) Stock Split
Race 10: (3) Castelli Magic, (9) Afleet Mysty, and (10) Mog
Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies
Del Mar Saturday August 26, 2006
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 2, 5, 6, 9, and 10.
In addition, I will put in $36 into a Pick 4 (Races 7-10)
Race 2: Claiming $50,000 to $45,000, 6-½ Furlongs, Three year olds WILBURS MR. ED (#1, 6-1) comes into this race having won three of his previous four starts including his last three in a row since the addition of blinkers. The bay gelding first added blinkers on March 26 at Santa Anita and scored a handy victory benefiting by the runner up, Romantic Rouge, trouble at the start and strong speed bias. In that race, he dueled for the lead between Preppy Pilot and Aunt Rita’s Tom Cat as those three horses zipped through an opening quarter in 21.57 seconds. Wilbur’s Mr. Ed dueled the latter into submission as he tired to finish eleventh and last as he and Preppy Pilot continued battling head and head for the early lead to the top of the stretch when he finally tired to finish fourth as Wilbur’s Mr. Ed opened up a two and half length lead at mid stretch and had enough left to hold off the rally of the post time favorite Romantic Rouge to win by three quarters of a length in a productive “key” race that saw the fourth and eighth place finishers (Preppy Pilot and Contrando) both returned to win.
Instead of facing Starter Allowance rivals, he immediately tacked three year old claimers for $40,000 on April 29 at Hollywood Park and won despite not being visually impressive. He was allowed to speed to the early lead through a leisurely opening quarter in 22.41 seconds as his expected pace foe, Her Red, was content to stalk him. He continued loose on an easy lead around the far turn, confronted in the stretch, and held on gamely despite drifting outwards a bit towards the wire in a sub-par effort that saw the fifth place finisher, Surging Desire, come back to win on the drop. Rather than move him in class or attempt to protect him, he returned from a two month layoff dropping one level in class off that less than average victory and returned to top form after a hard fought visually impressive dead heat victory with Double Parked. He was not allowed an easy opening quarter of a mile as he battled for the lead while parked four wide with Double Parked, Fight in the Cat, and The Missile Came are drawn inside of him dueling through a 21.85 second opening quarter. He continued four wide battling for the lead through the turn as Fight in the Cat and The Missile Came weakened from their earlier efforts to finish fifth and seventh respectively as Wilbur’s Mr. Ed and Double Parked battled head and head through the stretch in a dead head victory. The strength of his 77 Beyer Speed Figure was validated as the winner returned on July 26 to win for $32,000 earning an 84 Beyer Speed Figure. According to Daily Racing Form’s Formulator software, in the past five years trainer Ted H. West has won an amazing 35 percent of the horses he claimed in his last start and he has wisely given this gelding two months between starts and makes a confident two level jump in class as he comes into this race in very good condition according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. Jockey Tyler Baze was aboard for his August 3 work where he went five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 where he “easily handled Irish Honor holding clear while in hand late going 24 1/5, 1:01 1/5” and came back with another five furlong work in 1:00 2/5 where he “held sway over a Chatlose trainee here, never really set down in the lane, some nursing near the wire in 35 flat and 59 4/5.” The rail going six and half furlongs is NOT a disadvantage as it has won 8 of 37 this meet for a 22% success rate. He should be on near the lead from every step and prove tough customer to reel in at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (1) WILBURS MR. ED to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 3-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 1-2, 1-3, and 1-5.Small reverse for each.
Race 5: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile Turf, Three year olds
SENSATIONAL SCORE (#3, 8-1) is my co-top choice with QUEEN’S IMAGE (#7, 6-1) as the former should get a good trip just off the lead as the latter will attempt to take this field gate to wire but this Wild Rush horse is the pick. He made his debut in a very difficult and rare situation last fall at Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting. As a two year old, he debuted in a one mile race on the grass and had drawn a difficult post position eight in a nine horse field and despite all these obstacles this son of Wild Rush overcame them to post a visually impressive debut victory. Despite his disadvantageous outside post position, he was able to come over from the outside to stalk the pace without losing a lot of ground into the first turn, rallied along the inside like a professional through the far turn and into the stretch, took the lead, and began to inch away through the stretch to win by a length at 3-1 as his future turf was not a surprise as he is a half brother to G3 turf winner that earned over $300,000 on that surface. Without turf racing during the fall Hollywood Park meeting, he was force to be reeled back to quickly in only twenty days in the Pinjara Stakes and had good striking position behind two dueling leaders down the backstretch, appeared full of run as he began his rally into the stretch to put in his bid, but weakened badly to lose second through the stretch as the 3-5 post time favorite. He returned for his three year old debut on the main track on opening week of the winter Santa Anita meeting and ran better than his third place finish would suggest to eventual multiple stakes winner Wanna Runner. He was content in allowing that rival to establish an easy early lead through a 22 4/5 opening quarter and half mile in 47 1/5 seconds. He made a three wide move into the teeth of that very slow pace into the far turn and was no match versus the perfect trip gate to wire winner as he tired from that move to finish third. He was kept on the main track in his next start but had no chance in what has returned to be a productive “key” race. He was in a good position behind two dueling leaders, Bob and John and The Five J’s but was the mercy of early pace as those two walked through early splits of 48.47 and 1:13.02 seconds. He was under a hard drive leaving the backstretch and could only come in an even fifth place finish as the leaders that were first and second after the first half mile ran that way on the wire was the winner returned to win the $100,000 Sham Stakes and G1 Wood Memorial and the fourth place finisher, Old Thunder, came back to win a Allowance N1X on the grass in his next start. Those two strenuous efforts on the main track took its toll as he was not seen again on the race track for another six months.
He made his returned from that extended layoff on July 21 here at Del Mar and ran an even third like a horse that needed a race. He was in a good spot outside of Wisdom Cat sitting just behind two dueling leaders early. He moved up three wide down the backstretch and into the far turn to get into contention, made a mild move to attack the leader Greedy Way, and was even through the stretch while out run by the eventual winner Two Trails. Though beaten, it was strong indication he is back in form as he returned with three more works including working seven furlongs in 1:26 3/5 that caught the attention of National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He finished “with purpose, without visible pressure in 1:02 4/5, 1:26 3/5 (23 4/5 final quarter) with the blinkers.” Though Aaron Gryder was aboard for that work out and has opted for Queen’s Image, fine apprentice Martin Garcia replaces him and I expect a fitter horse in his second start off the brief freshening with a anticipated Queen’s Image on the lead and getting first run on favorite Falcon Scott.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (3) SENSATIONAL SCORE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Play the (7) QUEEN’S IMAGE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 3-5, 3-6, and 3-7.
Main Exactas: 7-3, 7-5, and 7-6.
Trifecta Box: 3-5-6-7
Race 6: Claiming $50,000 to $45,000, 6 Furlongs, Four year olds and upward SECRET RIDGE (#4, 8-1) is my co top choice with RUFSTHEROADRUNNER (#2, 6-1) but I strongly believe that the only thing separating both is the amount of early speed both have shown in their most recent starts and likely price as with a sixth and ninth place finish Secret Ridge could be grossly overlooked. He was forced to stalk a contested battle in the G3 Los Angeles Times Handicap in the uncomfortable position of racing between rivals and did not fire as the winner, Siren Lure, would return to win the G1 Triple Bend and G2 Pat O’ Brian in his next two starts. He stretched out to two turns for the first time on the main track on June 4 and ran better than his sixth place finish would suggest in this mid-pack effort. Breaking from the disadvantageous post position ten in a ten horse field, Secret Ridge was caught four wide sitting just off a 23.21 second opening quarter and then raced three wide through a half mile in a quick 46.34 seconds. After dueling both of his pace rivals into submission after the first half mile (tired to finish eighth and ninth), he grab the lead while contesting it now between rivals on the far turn, and continued to mid stretch before the earlier effort of contesting that fast pace while wide early resulted in him finishing sixth beaten two and half lengths in a better than looked effort earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 90 that is well within range of the typical winning Beyer to win this race (98 Beyer). I believe he had a long shot chance to score on the front end when he cut back to one turn and by an eighth of a mile on July 2 at Hollywood Park and he faded to finish ninth beaten fourteen and half lengths but that was after he had to contest one of the fastest early fractions on that card. He showed his excellent early speed to duel between a four horse battle for the lead that included Swiss Lad, Bonus Pack, and Twice as Bad. Those three horses battled through blistering early fractions of 22.16 and 44.49 seconds as Secret Ridge continued in the fight for the lead all the way to the top of the stretch where he was bumped by Cooperation at mid stretch, and retreated to finish ninth crossing the wire ahead of only two rivals. That margin of defeat is inconclusive as jockey David Flores simply wrapped up on him in the final furlong and that was no ordinary Allowance N2X. The winner, Papi Chullo, earned a off the chart 108 Beyer Speed Figure and the validity of that figure has already been confirmed as the fourth place finisher, Swiss Lad returned to win for $50,000 on July 29 here at Del Mar and the fifth place finisher, Cooperation, also came back to win. In addition, his ninth place finish was the result of that screaming early pace as the first three places finishers rallied from 8-7-11 after the first quarter of a mile. He returns off a seven week hiatus with four more works and switch to Alex Solis. The most surprising aspect of this race is the lack of plethora of early speed, Secret Ridge should be able to make the lead early, have it approaching the quarter pole, and prove a tough customer to run with early and attempt to run down late as he makes his first start in for a claiming price for capable conditioner Paulo Lobo.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (4) SECRET RIDGE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Play the (2) RUFSTHEROADRUNNER to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 2-3, 2-4, and 2-5 Main Exactas: 4-2, 4-3, and 4-5.
Exacta Box: 2-3-4
Race 9: Claiming $32,000 to $28,000, 6 Furlongs, Three year olds EVANSTON (#5, 7-2) is the shortest price of my five plays on the card and he is a deserving play as he makes his second start for King Juan Garcia. After two runner-up efforts with a fourth place finish in three races at Turf Paradise, he dropped in to face California bred company on May 13 at Hollywood Park and romped as the 5-2 favorite earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 78 that is well within par for this class level (83 Beyer) and he had to earned it. Breaking from post position eleven in a twelve horse field, this Benton Creek gelding had enough early speed to drop over from his outside post position and battle for the lead with long shot Dr. Busch as those two opened up three and half lengths on the rest of the field through a 21.48 second opening quarter. He dueled that rival right into submission as the tired to finish ninth, but this dark bay gelding cleared on the far turn, and never looked back as the validity of his speed figure was confirmed when the seventh and eighth place finishers (Melo Jazz and Mr. Thatcher) both came back to win in their next start making it a productive “key” race. I really liked his chances a lot as he worked super into this July 1 race according to Andy Harrington but did not deliver finishing a flat fourth managing to beat more than half of his field. He failed to show his early speed and he was rated to stalk the eventual runner up, Hot Tizzy, early, came under a strong push by Michael Baze on the far turn, and was simply out run in that final furlong to be fourth. The lack of early speed he shown forced trainer Jeff Mullins to add the blinkers when he was reeled back in only two weeks as dropped into a restricted claiming race for N2L on July 15 and ran a super race to be second as he was clearly the best to win the battle for the early lead only to lose the war to the opportunistic perfect trip stalking winner Lite Man. In that race, he battled inside of a three horse battle for the early lead with Lower Shore and Under House Arrest through a 21.70 second opening quarter, he dueled those two rivals into submission as they both tired to finish sixth and eighth, opened up a clear premature lead around the far turn through an enervating 44.21 second half mile and was caught in only the final sixteenth of a mile while finishing five and half lengths ahead of the third place finisher earning a Beyer Speed Figure that is par for this class level. He made his first start at this class level for new trainer Juan Garcia and lost whatever chance he had to show his speed when hampered by the break and wide trip sealed his chance. He broke slowly and was then bumped soon after to trail early, lugged out down the backstretch while force to race four wide down the backstretch, five wide through the far turn and into the stretch, and got up for second behind the perfect trip pace pressing winner. He returns to the level of his last start and has bounced back with fine half mile work on August 19 at Del Mar which Andy Harrington caught him dueling “with an eased barn mate here in 22 2/5 early moving clear under some coxed looking fine while hitting the wire along in 49 flat.” Jockey Martin Garcia has been aboard for one of Juan Garcia’s seven winners this meet and with an alert start sees him pressing Desert Smoke (drawn on the disadvantageous rail), duel that rival into submission, and kick clear as my most probable winner and BEST BET on today’s Del Mar program.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (5) EVANSTON to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 2-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 5-4, 5-7, and 5-8. Small reverse for each.
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $25,000 to $22,500, 6 Furlongs, Three and up, Fillies and mares.
AFLEET MYSTY (#9, 10-1) has never had a fair chance and with a clean break this Northern Afleet filly can show her true colors with an alert start. She made her career debut on July 13 at Hollywood Park and she lost all chance when she broke inward at the break, rushed up to stalk the pace within range early, continued wide from every step, and did not go on in an inconclusive effort as a schooling run. That race served as a good tighter as she came back on July 27 to work three furlongs in sharp fashion according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington as he caught here “in 35 flat looking smart while held up inside B L’s Dazing (36 1/5) looking quite nice in this sharp looking blow out for Cerin. Seems a lot better than last.” She dropped to this class level in her last start on August 4 here at Del Mar and once again did not have a perfect trip. She stumbled then was squeezed and force to steady when Clever Cahill came out on her, lost all early position, to lose any chance. Jockey Martin Garcia did not push on this filly after the start as she was taken in hand soon after the break in an inconclusive performance to finish seventh beaten eleven and half lengths. She came back with a super half mile work out on August 20 where National Turf’s Andy Harrington caught her working “an easy ½ mile drill with Potts up in 24 2/5, 48 3/5 moving with smoothness late. Seems to have more run than shown.” Jockey Martin Garcia has been aboard of three of Vladimir Cerin’s four wins this meet and all she needs is an alert to start to show the ability she has shown in the mornings training. Expect a box car price.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (9) AFLEET MYSTY to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 8-1 or better)
Main Exacta Box: 3-9-10
Del Mar Pick 4
Race 7: (4) Caped for Flight, (8) Marked Warrior, (10) Mystic Wood, and (13) Mr. Logan
Race 8: (2) ARAGORN
Race 9: (4) Way to Shine, (5) Evanston, (8) Stock Split
Race 10: (3) Castelli Magic, (9) Afleet Mysty, and (10) Mog
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